96L Update: 95L is dead... 96L may become Hurricane Chantal in 5 days. It will be getting close the Lee Ward islands in about 6 days!!!p3

Friday-Sunday...
Quickly changing pattern by late week as mid/upper level troughing
becomes more amplified across the Southeast, the Atlantic ridge axis
lifts north into northern FL, and a tropical wave (currently Invest
95L in the eastern Caribbean Sea) moves into the Straits of Florida.
Regardless of any potential development most of the model guidance
indicates high rain chances (60-70 percent) starting late Friday
night through Sunday. The focus of the heaviest rainfall looks to be
Saturday at this time as the deep moisture associated with the
tropical wave makes its closest approach to central Florida. Minor
flooding may be a concern for some areas that have seen locally
heavy rainfall. See the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook for more
information on Invest 95L. Skies will be considerably cloudy this
weekend keeping afternoon high temperatures "slightly cooler" in the
upper 80s to near 90 degrees. Muggy/wet conditions likely during the
overnight hours too as lows only drop into the mid/upper 70s.

However, forecasters believe the disturbance will lose stabilization as it moves across those areas, but could gain strength as it enters warm Florida waters where the environment is more conducive for tropical development, the NHC said.

UH..DIS B 'CHANTAL'?....

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
651 AM EDT MON JUL 29 2019

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM JUL 29/06UTC: A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAINT CROIX WILL BE THE SYSTEM OF CONCERN DURING THE NEXT 48-60 HRS. THE GFS HAS BEEN SURPRISINGLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS FORECAST...AND IT IS
FAVORED OVER THE EUROPEAN MODELS.

ALOFT...CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL FAVOR AN UPPER DIVERGENT PATTERN THAT IS TO VENT DEEP CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. THE CORRESPONDING MID LEVEL VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...THIS IS TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES-EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWING PWAT
CONTENT OF 2-3 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. HIGH PWAT CONTENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A DRYER AIR MASS TO THEN ENTRAIN FROM THE EAST.

GLOBAL MODELS AND NCEP ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH MIGHT BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE CONSIDERING THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR TOPOGRAPHICAL
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO. ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY GDI FORECAST GRADUALLY SHOWS BEST INSTABILITY SHIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS PUERTO RICO...BUT MODELS SEEM SLOW TO RESPOND TO THE EVOLVING PATTERN. SO EXPECTING HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN WHAT THE MODELS SUGGEST TO AFFECT THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. A THIRD ROUND IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...BUT AS A DRYER AIR MASS STARTS TO ENTRAIN FROM THE EAST...MOST ACTIVE IS
LIKELY TO CLUSTER ACROSS INTERIOR/WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

thanks

New tropical storm threatens China and Vietnam

[link to www.aljazeera.com (secure)]

and TROPICAL STORM ERICK

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Could it maybe come up the GA coast? I don't know about the steering.

At this point in time, yes. It is too far off for anyone to give a definitive or exact location it'll be going. Right now the GA coast is in the cone but in a few days the cone may show it heading towards Texas or East of the US. altogether.

20 bucks says it goes out to sea

omg euro, to north carolina?

[link to www.tropicaltidbits.com (secure)]

no i don't think so, if he goes that way he will stay well offshore

West shift !

[link to www.tropicaltidbits.com (secure)]

CHANTAL BITCHES!

Wish your thread had more stars, it deserves it. I 5 starred it. This is all good information for us to stay prepared at all times, plus weather is cool. #Meteorology

Thank's!

The Antilles will need to watch 96L
A strong tropical wave traversing the central Atlantic was designed Invest 96L on Wednesday evening by NHC. We’ll be hearing about 96L for several days to come, as the system makes its way into the western part of the Main Development Region, the deep tropics that extend from the Caribbean to Africa.

Although the strongest convection was far west of 96L's center on Wednesday night, the disturbance had “good bones”, with a large field of moisture and cloudiness and a broad, open circulation focused around 8-10°N and 31-33°W. The ASCAT advanced scatterometer detected surface winds of up to 25-30 knots at the heart of 96L. Over the next several days, 96L will be heading west-northwest toward an area of warmer SSTs where several upper-level features may align to support it.

The upper-pattern for the Central Atlantic wave as it approaches the Antilles is worth watching. A couple of upper lows to the north could ventilate the storm on the north side if things line up, but they could also bring shear (mid-level RH isn't high either). Tricky setup. pic.twitter.com/UZpTAMUVF4

— Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton) July 31, 2019
GFS ensemble runs from Wednesday morning were near-unanimous in developing 96L into at least a depression by the time it approaches the northern Leeward Islands on Monday. About 20-30% of the European ensemble runs supported development in that period. In its 8 pm EDT Wednesday tropical weather outlook, NHC ended up in between, raising the odds of development in the 3- to 5-day period to 70%.

There is a good bit of ensemble support for 96L beyond the five-day period, but increasing spread over time (and with subsequent model runs) in where the system might go from that point onward.

Meanwhile, odds are low that the system formerly known as 95L will develop as it moves into the vicinity of The Bahamas. NHC gives the system a less-than-10% chance of becoming at least a tropical depression between Friday and Monday as it translates northward well off the Southeast U.S. coast.
[link to www.wunderground.com (secure)]

euro and gfs says doom off

to soon to tell...


@BMcNoldy
Seguir Seguir @BMcNoldy
Mais
Heads-up, south Florida! A tropical wave is just beginning to ooze over the area today... it will bring increased chances of thunderstorms through the weekend, including heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty wind, and even a few waterspouts/tornadoes. #FLwx @UMiamiRSMAS
[link to twitter.com (secure)]

CHANTAL GONNA COME OUT AN KICK SOME FT. LAUD. ASS!...

Same post style

U BES GIT ME UH STORM SUMMIN OR SOMTHIN..CUZ I'Z HUNGRY..!