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Super Typhoon Hagibis: 77 people dead, with 15 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14

 
Luisport  (OP)

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10/09/2019 08:47 AM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 77 people dead, with 15 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
[link to twitter.com (secure)]

#SuperTyphoonHagibis has surpassed Lekima and is now in 2nd place for Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) generated by a 2019 western North Pacific #typhoon (WNP) to date. If forecasts are correct, #Hagibis should surpass Wutip as leading ACE generator of WNP 2019 season in 2-3 day
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10/09/2019 09:06 AM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 77 people dead, with 15 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
Projected strength is now up to Cat 4 just to the SE of the Japanese Islands

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Luisport  (OP)

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10/09/2019 09:10 AM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 77 people dead, with 15 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
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Luisport  (OP)

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10/09/2019 09:11 AM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 77 people dead, with 15 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
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Anonymous Coward
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10/09/2019 09:14 AM
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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 77 people dead, with 15 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
They seriously need to steer that storm...I bet Trump is gonna come to the rescue. He controls Storms. He is the Storm.
Luisport  (OP)

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10/09/2019 09:17 AM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 77 people dead, with 15 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
They seriously need to steer that storm...I bet Trump is gonna come to the rescue. He controls Storms. He is the Storm.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77749705


LOL!
Luisport  (OP)

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10/09/2019 09:17 AM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 77 people dead, with 15 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14


projected intensity on the final approach to Japan has increased significantly since 2 days ago
Luisport  (OP)

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10/09/2019 09:35 AM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 77 people dead, with 15 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
growing larger... [link to www.windy.com (secure)]
Luisport  (OP)

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10/09/2019 09:42 AM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 77 people dead, with 15 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
[link to www.ssd.noaa.gov (secure)]
Luisport  (OP)

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10/09/2019 10:14 AM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 77 people dead, with 15 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
Met Office
✔
@metoffice
#TyphoonHagibis continues to head towards #Japan, with a likely landfall towards #Tokyo this Saturday.

This will bring heavy #rain, very strong winds and large waves to the area @F1 #F1JAPANESEGP #RugbyWorldCup
Luisport  (OP)

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10/09/2019 12:16 PM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 77 people dead, with 15 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
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@TropicalTidbits
Seguir Seguir @TropicalTidbits
Mais
In addition to the usual gradient imbalance issues in HWRF runs for strong TCs, recent runs for #Hagabis have exhibited some form of apparent numerical instability (noisy mass field on north side during first 9 forecast hours). It's not immediately obvious why.
Luisport  (OP)

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10/09/2019 12:18 PM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 77 people dead, with 15 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
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#Hagibis has been at #supertyphoon (>= 150 mph) strength for 60 consecutive hours - the most consecutive hours at supertyphoon strength for a western North Pacific #typhoon since Mangkhut (2018). Mangkhut was a supertyphoon for 90 consecutive hours.
Goofy for God
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10/09/2019 12:24 PM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 77 people dead, with 15 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
The new eye is very big!
 Quoting: Luisport


I tried to find the size and how far winds reach could not
Job 37:13 He causeth it to come, whether for correction, or for his land, or for mercy.
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10/09/2019 01:09 PM
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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 77 people dead, with 15 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
[link to earth.nullschool.net (secure)]
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10/09/2019 01:12 PM
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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 77 people dead, with 15 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
891 mb forecast this afternoon/evening

[link to www.tropicaltidbits.com (secure)]
Luisport  (OP)

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10/09/2019 01:12 PM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 77 people dead, with 15 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
Typhoon likely to hit east Japan; unusual pre-warning issued
By Ryunosuke Kanayama, Staff writer (Asahi Shimbun)

"An extremely powerful typhoon looks headed to pound areas stretching from Shikoku to the Tohoku region on Oct. 12 and 13, the Japan Meteorological Agency said Oct. 9.
The agency usually holds a news conference the day before a typhoon approaches Japan, but given the strength of Typhoon No. 19, it decided to issue a warning well ahead of schedule to prepare residents in areas likely to be affected.
The typhoon is expected to pack winds as strong as Typhoon No. 15 that devastated Chiba Prefecture in September and affect wide areas." From:

[link to www.asahi.com]
Luisport  (OP)

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10/09/2019 01:16 PM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 77 people dead, with 15 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
The new eye is very big!
 Quoting: Luisport


I tried to find the size and how far winds reach could not
 Quoting: Goofy for God


Hagibis is 140kts for over 12 hours with the eye clearer than it was when it was upgraded to a 5, with convection cooling and the eye warming, honestly 150kts+ is most likely.
Luisport  (OP)

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10/09/2019 01:18 PM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 77 people dead, with 15 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
891 mb forecast this afternoon/evening

[link to www.tropicaltidbits.com (secure)]

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 51146240


GFS has Hagibis pressure below 900mb over the next 6-12 hours, frankly it's already there and may have been for a while, not having missions into these systems really suck as we have seen satellite estimates downplay Dorian to a very large degree this year...anyway GFS has landfall into Japan with 930s pressure, this is likely to be one of the most devastating systems to hit the country.
Luisport  (OP)

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10/09/2019 02:03 PM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 77 people dead, with 15 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
Tokyo may get a late-season hit from Hagibis
Strong typhoons do not typically threaten central Japan as late as mid-October, but Hagibis is an unusual storm. Forecast models are in close agreement on a classic recurving path that will bring the hurricane close to the Tokyo Bay region of Honshu island between Saturday and Sunday local time. The spread among models is more in timing than in track. Because of the angle of approach, though, only a slight shift left or right could result in either a high-impact Tokyo Bay landfall or a glancing brush offshore.

Hagibis is likely to be slow to weaken. The atmosphere around the typhoon will remain moist (mid-level relative humidity around 60%). Sea surface temperatures will gradually drop along the typhoon’s path from the very warm current values of around 30°C (86°F) to around 27°C (81°F) as the storm nears Honshu, which is still more than warm enough to support a typhoon. Wind shear will increase from light to moderate values (5 – 10 knots) to a strong 20 knots by this weekend, with a more dramatic increase after Hagibis reaches Japan. At first, some of this shear may be in the form of midlatitude flow on the north side of Hagibis that could help ventilate the storm. If Hagibis becomes a truly annular storm, that will slow the pace of weakening as well. Even so, Hagibis will be a considerably less potent storm than it is now by the time it nears Japan on Saturday (U.S. EDT).

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center predicted on Wednesday that the core of Hagibis will move over or near Tokyo Bay around 8 am EDT Saturday as a Category 2 typhoon. This is roughly comparable to the strength of Faxai, which struck Tokyo Bay as a Category 2 typhoon last month, damaging more than 20,000 structures and inflicting as much as $9 billion in damage. One major difference is that Hagibis will be a larger, more long-lived, and more powerful typhoon than Faxai as it approaches Japan, so Hagibis could pack more widespread impacts—including a more significant threat of storm surge—depending on its ultimate trajectory and strength.

Hagibis could affect the Rugby World Cup taking place this month in several sites in Japan. World Rugby will hold a press conference at 11 pm EDT Wednesday to discuss the storm and any needed actions, according to BBC.

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10/09/2019 02:11 PM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 77 people dead, with 15 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
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Luisport  (OP)

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10/09/2019 02:29 PM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 77 people dead, with 15 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
Richard Dixon
@catinsight
You know #Hagibis is large when you notice one model producing 130 mph gusts on N and S coasts as it crosses Japan. Although this could well be a function of the extra-tropical transition process
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10/09/2019 02:51 PM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 77 people dead, with 15 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
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10/09/2019 02:53 PM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 77 people dead, with 15 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14


Toquio: 12 October, 90kts
Luisport  (OP)

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10/09/2019 03:03 PM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 77 people dead, with 15 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
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A big picture look at the atmospheric dynamics steering Typhoon #Hagibis toward #Japan, and eventually, Alaska, via #Himawari8 water vapor imagery. [link to re.ssec.wisc.edu (secure)]
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10/09/2019 03:53 PM
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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 77 people dead, with 15 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
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glassesoff
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10/09/2019 04:02 PM
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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 77 people dead, with 15 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
Forecast to hit below, then go through, Fuku.
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10/09/2019 05:01 PM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 77 people dead, with 15 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14


Tokyo???

mrscrd14
AKA Auntie Arnie
Luisport  (OP)

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10/09/2019 06:04 PM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 77 people dead, with 15 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14


Tokyo???

mrscrd14
 Quoting: Arnie


Yes...
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10/09/2019 06:14 PM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 77 people dead, with 15 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
[link to www.ssd.noaa.gov (secure)]
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10/09/2019 06:16 PM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 77 people dead, with 15 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #39 - 3:00 AM JST October 10 2019
TYPHOON HAGIBIS (T1919)
========================================
350 km South Southwest of Iwo Jima

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Hagibis (915 hPa) located at 22.0N 139.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 150 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 6 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==============
130 nm from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
400 nm from the center in eastern quadrant
325 nm from the center in western quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T7.0-

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 26.0N 137.8E - 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) 380 km west northwest of Iwo Jima
48 HRS: 30.4N 136.3E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea South of Japan
72 HRS: 37.0N 140.2E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Over land Eastern Japan (Tochigi Prefecture)





GLP