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Super Typhoon Hagibis: 81 people dead, with 10 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14

 
Luisport  (OP)

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10/09/2019 06:20 PM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 81 people dead, with 10 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
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Luisport  (OP)

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 81 people dead, with 10 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
18z HWRF starts out at 881mb.

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Luisport  (OP)

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10/09/2019 06:45 PM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 81 people dead, with 10 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
18z HWRF starts out at 881mb.

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 Quoting: Luisport


Hagibis is 890-895mb, sub 900 at the least, 155kts seems right, systems like this makes it so frustrating historically not to have recon...these are the systems that are historic need the real data whether they are threatening land or not. I am happy Lorenzo was looked into this year that far east however.
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10/09/2019 06:48 PM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 81 people dead, with 10 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
Bob Henson
✔
@bhensonweather
It may hit with Cat 2 peak winds comparable to #Faxai a few weeks ago...but Hagibis is a much bigger storm. And even Faxai caused billions in damage. [link to twitter.com (secure)] … [link to twitter.com (secure)] …
Luisport  (OP)

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10/09/2019 06:56 PM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 81 people dead, with 10 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
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Anonymous Coward
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10/09/2019 06:58 PM
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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 81 people dead, with 10 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
Bob Henson
✔
@bhensonweather
It may hit with Cat 2 peak winds comparable to #Faxai a few weeks ago...but Hagibis is a much bigger storm. And even Faxai caused billions in damage. [link to twitter.com (secure)] … [link to twitter.com (secure)] …

 Quoting: Luisport


hoooly sh*t
Anonymous Coward
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10/09/2019 06:59 PM
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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 81 people dead, with 10 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
934 mb when close to landfall

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Anonymous Coward
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10/09/2019 07:08 PM
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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 81 people dead, with 10 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
934 mb when close to landfall

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 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 51146240


147 mph winds

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UH
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10/09/2019 07:34 PM
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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 81 people dead, with 10 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
it is a week out?
 Quoting: uh 77863222


SO...IT IS WHAT A WEEK OUT?...AND WHEN IT HITS IT WILL B LIKE A 90 TO 105 AT BEST...PERHAPS EVEN KPH...UH, ...IT NEEDS TO BE LIKE A CAT-11 IN ORDER TO BE A TRUE "DHOOM MACHINE" TO TEAR OPEN FUKASHIM-UH...NO, WAIT...FUKASHIMA CAN BE BLOWN APART BY A BAD FART...I GUESS THIS IS DHOOM THEN....AFTER IT GOES THRU!


..WHAT IM REALLY SAYIN IS THESE THINGS ALWAYS RATCHET DOWN TO A LESSOR STORM..ESP WHEN THEY HIT 'JAPAN'...

..HOW MANY ..HISTORICALLY..HAVE LANDED AT MAX WINDS..LIKE ANDREW...AND HUGO...AND OPAL...?
 Quoting: uh 77610696



I aint too sure on the numbers, uh, but there was the Vera typhoon which landed at max in Japan and so far Hagibis seems to be very similar to that one in track and intensity.

If this one doesn't start weakening by Friday then Japan could be in for a bad time.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 23540256


fine..ill ROOT FOR THAT THEN...MARKETS CARSH JUST B 4 IT HITS...
 Quoting: uh 78015126


ALRIGHT, NOW LISTEN UP TEAM...!

I DONT WANT NO WIMPY CAT 2..I WANT A FULL BORE CAT 4 MIN...I LIKE THIS 881MB STUFF..THAT IS THE STUFF OF CHAMPIONS!

I WANT FULL FUKU BLOWN OPEN....EVEN SOME OF THIS WILL REACH ALASKA..WITH ALL THE RADIATION!

I THINK THAT THIS ENORMOUS STORM CAN PUSH..PULL DRAG BRING ITS OWN WARM WATER WITH IT! ! ! ! AND IT GOES ON SHORE WITH AT LEAST A CAT 3 AND STILL CRANKIN!

NOW, GET OUT THERE TEAM AND DHOOM ME UP SOME DAMM DHOOM!
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10/09/2019 08:38 PM
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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 81 people dead, with 10 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
bump
Agent MIB
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10/09/2019 08:41 PM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 81 people dead, with 10 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
I overlaid the center of Super Typhoon Hagibis over Metro Manila, Philippines. Current sustained winds are 140 kts (260 kph), wave heights are reaching 55 ft over open water! NE quadrant, 95 nm out, sustained winds are 65 kts (120 kph). This will give you an idea about how dangerous this monster storm is currently. Forecast track still shows it heading towards Tokyo. Fortunately, it will weaken before it reaches the main island of Japan.

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 Quoting: Agent MIB


Thread: WOW! Some Perspective of Super Typhoon Hagibis

Last Edited by Agent MIB on 10/09/2019 08:42 PM
You are born with the truth, then taught a lie.
Luisport  (OP)

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10/10/2019 03:41 AM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 81 people dead, with 10 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
I overlaid the center of Super Typhoon Hagibis over Metro Manila, Philippines. Current sustained winds are 140 kts (260 kph), wave heights are reaching 55 ft over open water! NE quadrant, 95 nm out, sustained winds are 65 kts (120 kph). This will give you an idea about how dangerous this monster storm is currently. Forecast track still shows it heading towards Tokyo. Fortunately, it will weaken before it reaches the main island of Japan.

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 Quoting: Agent MIB


Thread: WOW! Some Perspective of Super Typhoon Hagibis
 Quoting: Agent MIB


But i think he will weaken less than forecasted...
coyoteblue

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10/10/2019 04:17 AM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 81 people dead, with 10 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
It's going to go nuclear.
Luisport  (OP)

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10/10/2019 07:53 AM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 81 people dead, with 10 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
Forecast

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Luisport  (OP)

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10/10/2019 07:57 AM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 81 people dead, with 10 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
As Typhoon No. 19 bears down on Japan, safety is the key concern

THE ASAHI SHIMBUN
"...The Japan Meteorological Agency said that as of noon on Oct. 10, the typhoon was about 440 kilometers southwest of Chichijima island of the Ogasawara chain, moving in a northerly direction at 20 kph.
Winds at the center of the storm, which is losing little strength, were as high as 198 kph, with gusts reaching 270 kph.
The area within a 240-km radius of the typhoon's center had strong winds of about 90 kph....
The JMA said that areas in the Tokai region could get as much as 200-300 millimeters of rain, with levels possibly reaching 100-150 mm in Shikoku, over the 24-hour period until 6 a.m. on Oct. 12." From:

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Luisport  (OP)

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10/10/2019 08:06 AM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 81 people dead, with 10 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
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Luisport  (OP)

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10/10/2019 08:15 AM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 81 people dead, with 10 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
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#SuperTyphoonHagibis edging closer to #Tokyo #Japan and impacting millions, including the #RugbyWorldCup. [link to tropic.ssec.wisc.edu]
UH
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10/10/2019 08:36 AM
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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 81 people dead, with 10 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
This storm is likely to produce a nulclear winter of catastrophic proportions, half the earth will have to be evacuated - dooooooommmmm
Luisport  (OP)

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10/10/2019 08:59 AM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 81 people dead, with 10 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
And current short-wave for Hagibis through 7:00 am EDT; the storm was edging slightly on the East side, and a bit N, from the guidance yesterday but has resumed the NW motion component which, if this persists, may bring the core closer in towards Tokyo over the weekend:

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Luisport  (OP)

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10/10/2019 09:05 AM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 81 people dead, with 10 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
The CIMSS track chart has updated since yesterday with the Island of Japan now in the chart; Cat 3 forecast on approach to Tokyo as present; we have seen these numbers on final approach go from a Cat 1 2-3 days ago to the current numbers; significant wind event, in addition to increased storm surge and inland flooding, if this verifies.

The upside is that we know from prior storms, that the Japanese have a very good preparation and response network in place; the bigger issue will be inland flooding and mudslides in the less populated areas in the mountains and valley regions
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Luisport  (OP)

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10/10/2019 09:08 AM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 81 people dead, with 10 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
And here is the link for Japan Doppler; outermost cyclonic flow from Hagibis starting to line-up off-shore:

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Luisport  (OP)

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10/10/2019 09:11 AM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 81 people dead, with 10 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
And the am big-shot look for Hagibis inbound into Japan; the storm looks much more symmetrical today than it did yesterday at this time; expanded rain shield in place again; more rain for the entire island Japan as a result even as the core closes in on Tokyo:

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10/10/2019 10:03 AM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 81 people dead, with 10 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
grouphug
Job 37:13 He causeth it to come, whether for correction, or for his land, or for mercy.
Luisport  (OP)

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 81 people dead, with 10 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
Super Typhoon Hagibis has begun its anticipated weakening trend, but it was still a formidable Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds at 11 am EDT Thursday, about 48 hours before its expected landfall in Japan.

Strong typhoons do not typically threaten central Japan as late as mid-October, but forecast models are in close agreement on a classic recurving path that will bring the typhoon close to the Tokyo Bay region of Japan's Honshu Island, with landfall occurring near 12Z (8 am EDT Saturday). Though Hagibis is expected to make landfall, only a slight shift to the right could result in the typhoon’s eye passing just offshore, sparing Japan the worst storm surge and wind impacts.

Satellite images on Thursday afternoon showed a steady reduction in the intensity and areal coverage of Hagibis’ heavy thunderstorm activity, though the typhoon still featured a prominent 23-mile diameter eye. Dry air was beginning to wrap into the circulation, resulting in a fragmentation of Hagibis’ formerly complete eyewall. Outer bands from the big typhoon were already spreading rain showers to the Tokyo area, as seen on Japanese radar.
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Luisport  (OP)

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 81 people dead, with 10 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
Steve Bowen
@SteveBowenWx
So we're clear, the #Hagibis landfall risk in #Japan is not unprecedented. This region near Tokyo saw a Category 2 landfall (#Faxai) literally four weeks ago w/ a multi-billion-dollar insurance payout. The uniqueness of Hagibis remains its exceptional rate of intensification.
Luisport  (OP)

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10/10/2019 03:33 PM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 81 people dead, with 10 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
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Great loop; not looking good for Japan by our-time tomorrow morning in terms of heavy rain well before the core approaches on Saturday; one of the wettest/thickest storm bands that I have ever seen on a tropical storm at present


Last Edited by Luisport on 10/10/2019 03:33 PM
Luisport  (OP)

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 81 people dead, with 10 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
That heavy band detached detached from the core is heading right towards the coast at the moment: this floater cuts off before Japan just to the N-NW but one of the smaller coastal islands is already coming into view in the upper-left corner of this loop (little pinkish sliver)

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 81 people dead, with 10 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #47 - 3:00 AM JST October 11 2019
TYPHOON HAGIBIS (T1919)
========================================
370 km West of Chichi-jima (Ogasawara subprefecture)

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Hagibis (925 hPa) located at 26.3N 138.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 11 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==============
200 nm from the center in eastern quadrant
150 nm from the center in western quadrant

Gale Force Winds
============
400 nm from the center in eastern quadrant
350 nm from the center in western quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5-

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 30.5N 136.8E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) 350 km south southeast of Shionomisaki (Wakayama Prefecture)
48 HRS: 36.8N 140.1E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Over land near Nasushiobara (Tochigi Prefecture)
72 HRS: 45.5N 158.7E - Extratropical Low in sea east of Kuril
Luisport  (OP)

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 81 people dead, with 10 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14
Water vapor from JMA
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Luisport  (OP)

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10/10/2019 04:32 PM

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Re: Super Typhoon Hagibis: 81 people dead, with 10 missing and 200 injured. Abe plans to declare Hagibis a 'severe disaster'!!!p14





GLP