TROPICAL STORM NESTOR: Nestor triggered tornadoes in Florida leaving damage, thousands without power!!!p7

Not yet a tropical or subtropical storm as of midday Friday—even though it’s packing 60-mph sustained winds—Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 was gathering strength and speed as it crossed the Gulf of Mexico toward an encounter with Florida’s Gulf Coast. Whether or not it gets named before it reaches the coast late Friday or early Saturday, PTC 16 could deliver a significant storm surge, very heavy rain, and the potential for severe weather, including tornadoes.

At 11 am EDT Friday, PTC 16 was centered about 400 miles southwest of Panama City, Florida. “Center” is a matter of judgment, as the system’s core was an elongated zone of low pressure rather than a more symmetric cyclone. Moreover, the heaviest showers and thunderstorms (convection) are clustered to the east of the surface center. For these reasons, the National Hurricane Center held off on classifying PTC 16 as a subtropical or tropical storm. Nevertheless, a Hurricane Hunter flight late Friday morning found winds of 83 mph at flight level, and surface winds were estimated as high as 60 mph based on SFMR (surface frequency microwave radiometer) data.

NHC predicts that PTC 16 could intensify slightly on Friday afternoon or evening, as an upper-level trough injects energy. There is still time for the system to develop a more consolidated center, in which case PTC 16 would become Subtropical or Tropical Storm Nestor (more likely the former, given its asymmetric nature). Models are in close agreement on PTC 16 accelerating northeastward and making landfall in the Florida Panhandle early Saturday morning, perhaps in the predawn hours.

The most concentrated impacts from PTC 16 will be on its east side, mainly affecting the Gulf coast of Florida. The intensifying complex of thunderstorms will roll into northern and central Florida late Friday into Saturday, likely with torrential rain and high winds associated with the surface cyclone as well as with thunderstorm downdrafts. Mini-supercells could develop, especially on Saturday, and these will have the potential to produce mostly short-lived tornadoes.

Storm surge a key threat with PTC 16
Significant storm surge is possible with PTC 16 as far south as the Tampa area, whether or not the system gets named before landfall. A storm surge warning is in effect from Indian Pass to Clearwater Beach, Florida. Water levels were running about a foot above normal across this area at midday Friday. Depending on the timing of landfall with respect to high tide, inundations above ground level could reach the following values:

Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft

Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft

Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft

The highest water from PTC 16 may occur close to the early-morning high tides, which arrive around 2 am at Clearwater Beach, around 5 am at Cedar Key, and around 6 am at Apalachicola.

PTC 16 will dump heavy rain along its path, especially across northern Florida, where localized totals could exceed 5”. Widespread totals of 1” – 3” can be expected as PTC 16 races across southern Georgia, South Carolina, and eastern North Carolina. Flooding concerns are relatively low with this system, given its rapid motion and the relatively dry conditions that have predominated in recent weeks, but flash floods are always a threat with high rainfall rates in a landfalling system like this one.
[link to www.wunderground.com (secure)]

Satellite imagery and ship and buoy data indicate that the
circulation of the low pressure system has become better defined,
and the disturbance is now Tropical Storm Nestor.

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nestor was
located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 89.5 West. Nestor is
moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Sunday, followed by a turn
toward the east-northeast by early Monday. On the forecast track,
the center of Nestor will approach the northern Gulf Coast later
today and tonight and move inland across portions of the
southeastern United States Saturday and Sunday as it becomes a
post-tropical cyclone. Nestor is expected to move offshore of the
coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected later today, with weakening
forecast after Nestor moves inland. Nestor is expected to lose
tropical characteristics and become post-tropical on Saturday.

Looks like rapid intensification going to happen

Gainesville here reporting in. Thanks Luis -
Publix was a little crazy - I over heard a guy talking about how bad the traffic was down around Brooksville - I dunno if that is storm related busy or what.
I got my stuff and plan to stay close to home now till this gets done.

We had very strange gusty wind here on Wed - everyone took note of it and it was discussed - then suddenly a storm popping up.

My eyes are staying peeled.
Trees coming down and Tornadoes are the risk here.

Expecting a ton of rain here in Georgia

looks like the are way off on the path and its heading right towards naples /ft myers

WTNT41 KNHC 182032
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Nestor Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

Nestor's structure has evolved quite a bit today. Since the release of the previous advisory, the center has become better defined based on data from aircraft, satellite, and surface observations, and on that basis, the system was classified as a tropical cyclone around 1800 UTC. Since that time, the center has become more separated from
the area of deep convection to the east, consistent with 30-40 kt of deep-layer westerly shear analyzed by the SHIPS model and UW-CIMSS. The initial intensity remains 50 kt based on aircraft data and earlier ASCAT data.

Thank you so much for the updates Luis.. I'm a storm surge area and looks like we are going to get a soaking.