TROPICAL STORM NESTOR: Nestor triggered tornadoes in Florida leaving damage, thousands without power!!!p7

000
WTNT31 KNHC 171456
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

...DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 95.7W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the Mississippi/Alabama
border to the Ochlockonee River, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Grand Isle, Louisiana to
the Mouth of the Pearl River.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect east of the Ochlockonee River to
Yankeetown, Florida.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Indian Pass, Florida, to
Clearwater, Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Ochlockonee River, Florida
* Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Ochlockonee River to Yankeetown, Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Clearwater, Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 22.4 North, longitude 95.7 West. The system is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northeast
is expected this afternoon or tonight, and a northeastward motion
at a faster forward speed is expected on Friday and Saturday. On
the forecast track, the system will approach the northern Gulf
coast Friday and Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical or
subtropical storm later today or tonight, with slow strengthening
then expected through Friday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft
Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by late Friday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf
Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas,
with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

thanks Luisport,,

Thank's!

CLASSIC OPAL PATH LOUEY..I KNOW MY SHIT TOO!

Looks like the path is going to go through georgia south carolina and north carolina!

HAVE I GONE BACK IN TIME AND CLONED 'OPAL'....?

it is official now that luisport is on it. i called bullshit on imelda. Boy, was i wrong!

Thanks Luisport


Live on the west coast of Florida, 30 mi N of Tampa.

I'll be keeping a close eye on this.

Water temps are 84+ degrees. It could develop faster than forecasted.

This buoy is all ready reporting 6.6 ft. waves.


[link to www.ndbc.noaa.gov (secure)]






Last Edited by Remedial_Rebel on 10/17/2019 02:33 PM

IS IT AIMED FOR FT. WALTON BEACH?!?!?1

Here in the New Orleans area we could get gust up to 35 mph from the approaching tropical system. It ordinarily would not seem like much, but there are two poorly secured cranes attached to the Hard Rock Hotel site that pancake crumbled last Saturday.

New Orleans Hard Rock update: Explosives to be used to take down damaged cranes

Crews on the site of the partially collapsed Hard Rock Hotel New Orleans were preparing Thursday to use explosives to demolish the two heavily damaged cranes balanced periously on the building, a process that could take 24 hours.

Authorities did not offer a specific time frame, but crews are in a race against the clock as potential tropical weather in the Gulf of Mexico could possibly threaten the region by later Friday. The disturbance in the Gulf could become a tropical or subtropical storm later Thursday and authorities are concerned about any winds it will bring to the area.
[link to www.nola.com (secure)]

[link to www.wwltv.com (secure)]

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
400 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

The complicated weather situation over the Gulf of Mexico described
in the previous advisory continues to evolve. Recent
scatterometer data shows that the tropical disturbance in the
southwestern Gulf has a circulation elongated north-northeast to
south-southwest, with winds of 30-35 kt occurring in the
southwestern quadrant. However, the system currently has neither
sufficient convection or a well-enough defined center to be
designated a tropical or subtropical cyclone. The disturbance
remains in close proximity to a mid- to upper-level low moving
across southern Texas and northeastern Mexico and a frontal system
over the northern and northwestern Gulf. One change from the
previous global model guidance is the the ECMWF and GFS have backed
off of their forecasts of a separate baroclinic low to the north of
the disturbance. Instead, the global models are in reasonable
agreement that the disturbance, along with whatever vorticity
centers form along the front, will be part of a large low pressure
area that will affect portions of the northern Gulf coast and the
southeastern United States.

The initial motion of the disturbance is now 020/8. There is little
change in the forecast track philosophy, the track guidance, or the
NHC forecast track. The system should soon turn northeastward in
the southern portion of the mid-latitude westerlies, and the track
model guidance agrees on a continued northeastward motion through at
least 72 h. The forecast track, which is in best agreement with the
HCCA corrected consensus model, brings the system across the
southeastern United States between 36-72 h, and then has it moving
into the Atlantic east of the mid-Atlantic States.

Gradual strengthening is expected as strong upper-level divergence
caused by the trough partly prevails over strong vertical shear.
Based on this, the intensity forecast again calls for gradual
strengthening until landfall in agreement with the global model
forecasts. While it remains unlikely that the system will develop
into a classical tropical cyclone, the ECMWF and GFS models suggest
enough organized convection will develop before landfall to make the
system a tropical or subtropical cyclone. After landfall, the
cyclone is forecast to become fully extratropical and gradually
weaken.

Regardless of the exact evolution, portions of the northern coast of
the Gulf of Mexico will experience strong winds, locally heavy
rains, and storm surge Friday and Saturday. Similar impacts are
expected across portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern
United States Saturday and Sunday.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of
up to 5 feet above ground level beginning Friday along the Florida
Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to Clearwater, where a Storm Surge
Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow advice
given by local officials.

2. Tropical storm force winds are likely by Friday afternoon along
portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, where tropical storm
watches and warnings are in effect. Regardless of the exact track
and intensity of the system, these winds will cover a large area,
especially east of the center.

3. Isolated flash flooding is possible along the central and eastern
Gulf Coast, mainly Friday and Friday night. Since soils across the
southeast are dry, the risk of flash flooding will be confined to
the immediate coast where heavier rainfall is possible.

4. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will
be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS
offices, since the system is expected to lose any tropical
characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 22.9N 95.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 18/0600Z 24.5N 92.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
24H 18/1800Z 26.9N 89.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 29.3N 86.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 31.4N 84.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 20/1800Z 35.6N 76.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 21/1800Z 37.5N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/1800Z 38.5N 66.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

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