BREAKING! Super Typhoon Kammuri heading towards Manila!

Someone please pin this thread. This could be a very devastating event as it may pass through the most heavily populated area of the Philippines.

There are also many US citizens (retired vets/citizens) in the projected path (Metro Manila, Angeles-Clark, Subic).

Last Edited by Agent MIB on 11/28/2019 12:18 AM

Obviously an antifa troll projecting their own perverse way of life.

YOU... WILL... NOT... GET... A... PIN... FOR... A... WEATHER... THREAD... IF... YOU... ARE... NOT... LUISPORT... OR... GEMAGNETICTRUMPHATER...

He isn't lying.

What if I post a Filipino version of Frankie MacDonald on YT, will that get it pinned?

Send the link to Frankie and have him make the video, then link the video here. Pinned for days like LP's threads with updates on page 3,901

Thanks this is very worrying. My wife and I are here in Cebu (Moalboal) and leave on Saturday. I hope the people of the Philippines are spared a hit. We love the people here...

Thanks! Have a safe journey to your destination. I was in Cebu City in 2014 for work at IT Park. My co-workers and friends took me on tour to the Colon Night Market (Pelenke), Magellan's Cross, Basilica de Sto. Nino and Simala Church while I was there. One of them was from Leyte whose family lost their homes the previous year from Super Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan).

I'm "out in the province" in Central Luzon (Cabanatuan, Nueva Ecija). We've been lucky so far this season as most Typhoons turned North before making landfall in the Pinas. Just over a week ago, we watched Tropical Storm Ramon (Kalmaegi) make a sharp left over Northern Luzon (Cagayan/Batanes Islands) and head Southwest along coast (Ilocos Norte/Ilocos Sur). Only had about 6" (160mm) rain here. Heavy flooding in Brgy's along Cagayan valley.

Past couple of years, we had several direct hits with the worst being Typhoon Ompong (Mangkhut) that hit Baguio and Banquet. We live within few hundred meters of a river and in a 50 yr flood plain. It flooded twice in past 10 yrs, before I relocated here in 2016.

I volunteer with the local PDRRMO and NDRRMC (Philippines equivalent of California OES and US FEMA). The Nueva Ecija PDRRMO team spent a week in Banquet going from rescue to recovery ops. Very tough for everyone emotionally, I've been in those situations during my active years in California SAR teams.

I spent the past two weeks having to rebuild my 10kW diesel generator engine. The piston rings broke and it bled oil all over while running during Tropical Storm Ramon power outage. That's what I get for buying a cheap Chinese product. Fortunately, I just got it operational this afternoon.

Last Edited by Agent MIB on 11/28/2019 05:30 AM

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23 - 15:00 PM JST November 28 2019
TYPHOON KAMMURI (T1928)
=======================================
Sea East of the Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Kammuri (970 hPa) located at 12.7N 138.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 6 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==============
50 nm from the center

Gale Force Winds
=============
300 nm from the center in northern quadrant
150 nm from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5-

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 14.5N 138.0E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea east of the Philippines
48 HRS: 14.2N 135.7E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea east of the Philippines
72 HRS: 14.1N 131.7E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea east of the Philippines (Camarines Sur)

It says 70 knot winds and the radar map show barely a swirl. How is this a super typhoon? I don't see anything. Nothing will happen.

Thanks for the pin!

Even with my years experience in Disaster Recovery/Business Continuity Planning, I'm very concerned about the forecast models. Especially since my family may be directly impacted by it. As I stated in a previous post, we had another powerful Typhoon Mangkhut (Ompong) eye pass within 50 mi North of our home last year.

I have my contingency plans and "go-bags" ready for us to evacuate if needed. As most in "Hurricane Alley" will tell you, being on the North/Northeast side of those storms typically has the worst damage. We are about 80 mi North of Metro Manila.

It will be a extremely dangerous storm with catastrophic damage if the forecast models are correct. It will pass through the most heavily populated region in the Philippines.

Here are two links to forecast models. First is storm strengthening to Super Typhoon with air pressure of below 945 mbar (hPA):
[link to www.ventusky.com (secure)]

This second one shows it passing through Metro Manila/Manila Bay with wind speeds/gusts:
[link to www.ventusky.com (secure)]

I hope GLP effect happens. However, with my experience I am hoping for the best and preparing for the worst.

Look at the forecast provided at the following link. On 12/01/2019 at 0600 Zulu, sustained winds 130 kts, gusts to 160 kts:
[link to www.metoc.navy.mil (secure)]

It is in the "sweet spot" for rapid intensification of Western Pacific typhoons. A CAT5 Hurricane has winds of 156 MPH (135 kts) for comparison. So this storm is expected to be at that threshold.

Last Edited by Agent MIB on 11/28/2019 07:57 AM

We need another thread for the "Winter Storms" impacting the US. I saw Storm "Ezekiel" approaching US West Coast. The weather is really gone wild in both hemispheres these past few weeks!

My friends in Australia (Brisbane) told me about the wildfires and then strong storms with golf ball sized hail throughout the region.

Here is a link to story I read about winter storms impacting US:
[link to www.thebigwobble.org]

Thread: Ezekiel Storm Update: Debris Flow Warning includes parts of Santa Barbara & Goleta in/below the CaveFire into Tuesday AM w/ heavy rain!!!

That is really great that you volunteer with PDRRMO and NDRRMC! I wish I could stay and help, but must return back to work in Beijing...

usa-usa-usa

WHAT IS THE 'REAL' DATA ON THIS THING....CAT 5 OR TROP STORM?

Thanks! I never had the opportunity during my employment to travel to Beijing. Although with today's geopolitical climate, I'd be cautious traveling to China with a US passport. Safe travels!

cat 4 to 5

THANKS LOUEY....SO CAL FLOODS MUDSLIDES DEC. 3RD!

:verydamned:

Currently it is a Category 1 Typhoon. Forecasts call for it to become a Super Typhoon (winds of at least 150 mph). This would be a high end category 4 storm. But it could definitely strengthen more than that and end up being a category 5 Typhoon (sustained winds of greater than 156 mph).

OH..IT'S STILL COOKING....GOTTA WAIT FOR THIS DHOOM..TANKS!

I lived there 7 years... had to deal with many westerners that were charged with sex crimes... only a couple were American. Missionaries from a sect of a well known “church”. I was not convinced they were committing sex crimes, as charged... that was probably the plan. They were clearly trafficking in children and very unapologetic assholes.

They were rudely extradited to the USA where they were already facing similar but unrelated charges - and convicted. Back out on the streets surely doing the same shit.

They had made many threats to find me (over being rudely removed from the Philippines) when I got back to the USA - still waiting. Still hoping.