COVID* STANDFORD MASK STUDY---Elsevier journal to retract widely debunked masks study whose author claimed a Stanford affiliation p345

Yeah, I’m much more concerned about the economic and social fallout than the virus. The world economy has been on the brink for 12 years, and any decent-sized breakout in one of our cities will be big trouble.

[link to translate.googleusercontent.com (secure)]

Study refers to Wuhan pneumonia 1 pass 2 or 3+ Zhong Nanshan claims fast clinical trial of new drugs

After research and analysis, many infectious disease experts concluded that Wuhan pneumonia new coronavirus can be widely transmitted from person to person and the infectious power ranges from "2" to "3+", which means one patient can be infected Two to three or more close contacts. Liang Zhuowei, director of the Li Ka Shing School of Medicine at the University of Hong Kong, described that the spread of the new coronavirus in Wuhan is not weaker than SARS. Without epidemic prevention measures, the number of patients will at least double within a week.

Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding, an epidemiologist at Harvard University in the United States, quoted a preliminary estimate yesterday (25th) that the infectivity of the new virus in Wuhan is 3.8, which is described as a thermonuclear plague. He later quoted the third edition of the latest edition of the Royal College of London, UK, saying that the estimated infectivity of the virus is 2.6, that is, one person can infect 2.6 people, the situation is extremely bad, and the epidemic will be difficult to stop. He also quoted report author Neil Ferguson on Twitter on the 25th, saying that although China and other countries have worked very hard, everyone must be prepared, "it may not be possible to stop the virus."

[snip]

In terms of mortality, Liang Zhuowei quoted experts inferring that the death rate of pneumonia in Wuhan reached 14%, that is, one death per 7 to 8 people, and the death rate of SARS was 17%.

[link to translate.googleusercontent.com (secure)]



Taiwan announces Hubei return to Taiwan and contacts may face arrest, forced quarantine

In response to "severe special infectious pneumonia", Taiwan has once again raised control measures. Taiwanese returning to Taiwan from Hubei today, as well as those who have been in contact with confirmed cases within Taiwan, must Implement "Home Isolation" for 14 days. If you go out by yourself without reporting to the epidemic prevention personnel, you will be "forced quarantine" if you violate the home quarantine regulations. Not only are there fines but also criminal responsibilities. Ready. Previously, Taiwan's regulations only required "independent health management."

The reason why Taiwan ’s officials increased the control measures is because of the third confirmed case in Taiwan, when a 55-year-old Wuhan businessman returned to Taiwan, he faced an official inquiry and concealed his whereabouts after returning to Taiwan. In particular, he went to Kaohsiung. "Bali Ballroom" stayed for four hours, but did not wear a mask during the whole process. An official analysis showed that the number of contacts with the confirmed case reached 80 people, which made the epidemic situation in Kaohsiung immediately strained. Municipal epidemic prevention work.


Comment: Getting tougher to move about. The US needs to implement something similar. Yesterday.

[link to translate.googleusercontent.com (secure)]



New crown virus deaths in Wuhan rise to 56


Wuhan virus continued to spread. On January 26, it was announced that the number of deaths had risen to 56. The number of confirmed infection cases exceeded 2,000, most of which were concentrated in Wuhan. The previous day's statistics were 1.300 infections and 41 deaths. Confirmed cases have been found in Hong Kong, Australia, Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam, Japan, France, North America, Australia, Nepal and other countries.

Hong Kong confirmed another new case of positive coronavirus today, with a total of 6 cases; Macau today added 3 confirmed cases with a total of 5 cases. Taiwan has also confirmed one new case today, with a total of 4 cases.

[link to translate.googleusercontent.com (secure)]

French health ministry: three patients infected with new pneumonia "in good condition"

The French Ministry of Health announced on Saturday that three patients infected with the new coronavirus in France were "in good condition" and no new cases of new coronavirus infection have been found so far. According to Agence France-Presse, France will now set up a special medical reception team at Paris-Charles de Gaulle Airport to handle the suspected infection of the new type of coronavirus in advance. The French symbol Citroen Group will withdraw its staff and family members from Wuhan.


France confirmed three cases of infection with the new coronavirus pneumonia on Friday. All three were of Chinese origin. Two of them were treated in Paris and the other was treated at Bordeaux Hospital. The French health ministry held a press conference on Saturday. Jétome Salomon, the director general for health affairs, said the three were "in good condition". He said the three hadn't had many contacts since they arrived in France, but authorities have asked these contacts to be examined. Salomon said that in France, detection of the new coronavirus takes only hours.


Salomon also said that the mortality rate of the new coronavirus is much lower than that of SARS.

[snip]

The Citroen Group said that 38 people will be evacuated and that the evacuation plan will be implemented in full cooperation with the Chinese authorities and the French Consulate General.

PSA pointed out that the evacuees will remain in quarantine in Changsha, the capital of Hunan Province, before returning to France.


Comment: A lot of weasel words in this article. Not sure if it's an artifact of translation. However, the mortality rate of nCoV is not "much lower than that of SARS." Maybe 3%?

First case in Thailand was a british tourist. So it gets white people too .

What concerns me is that I'm sure China is not putting out real numbers. One reason is because of the medical personel we've seen or heard breaking down over this. Medical workers are used to working long hours and they are used to seeing death and sickness. If there were only 56 deaths at this point, I don't think they would be reacting like they have been. In reality 50 something in a city of millions doesn't seem like a lot. Also they are going to great measures to block the city off.

There are confirmed cases here in the states and other places. Hopefully if others have caught it from confirmed cases in places besides China, we are given actual numbers. I'm feeling though it will be a week or so before we start hearing about it given incubation times.

This whole thing is worrysome. I have followed the Sars, ebola and mers outbreaks. This has a different feel to it and I'm not a panicer.

h/t gsgs at FT

This is a spreadsheet with info on confirmed cases. Mean age 47 years old. 37% female.

According to this list:

Washington case is a 30 y.o. male
Chicago case is a 60 y.o. female



[link to docs.google.com (secure)]

Wrong..

British tourist tested negative for coronavirus, he had the normal flu.

[link to www.dailymail.co.uk (secure)]

Hawkeye, and admin at FT:

Seeing rumors/posts that people from Wuhan are being denied social services (which I assume means all services) within other cities. Also that they are being told to leave and to go back to Wuhan by other citizens and the authorities.

I've been following Chinese-originated pandemic possibilities since the early 2000's.

Of course the numbers are way understated. Chinese hubris.

This is different. Way different. 10+ cities, 30-40 million people "quarantined". This is unprecedented in modern times. Even NOT considering the virus, the social and economic implications boggle the mind. I think China is done as a perceived superpower for quite a while. They are done as a world economic powerhouse for a long time. Just the social and economic recovery will take years. Foreign companies and countries are pulling their people out of China. It will be months or years before they can go back.

Now, add this stupid virus in to the mix, and other countries unwillingness to do the smart thing. Monitoring airports and expecting people to self-report or self-quarantine are just stupid. People suck. They will not comply. They will medicate just to get past airport checks. But, more importantly...ASYMPTOMATIC CARRIERS. FFS, how many "Mary Mallons" are coming in to the US every day. 5? 10? All it takes is ONE. FYI, Mary Mallon is better known as Typhoid Mary.

So, it feels different, because it is different. Way different. Personally, I don't see things getting better for China, the US, or the world, any time soon. Do I think this is it? The big one? The thing some people prepare for for years or decades but hope it never happens? I just don't know. Currently, for me, it's a struggle between seeing all this horrifying information, and normalcy bias- it can't happen, because it doesn't happen. (But, pandemics do happen, do kill millions. I just can't convince myself we are headed to a worse-case scenario.)

Damn. Sorry to carry on like this. As you can see, I, too, am trying to work through some shit. Putting it in writing certainly helped.

Good luck.

Beijing schools K thru colleges will not reopen after the New Year break, and will be closed indefinitely.

Maybe schools being closed for the holidays contributed to the lower number of young people getting sick?

Hmmmm.

My bad, I hadn't seen the update on not being cornoa. Lots of info to cover here.

Pretty similar to how I'm feeling, China didn't react like this for H7N9, or any of the other bird flu outbreaks that were a few hundred people.

Price controls on masks and disinfecting materials being implemented.

Won't work, but, hey, gotta appear like you are doing something to help.

h/t tetano at FT

[link to news.china.com.cn]


'We encountered a patient who came to Hangzhou from Wuhan to attend a conference. When he arrived in Hangzhou, he did not have any symptoms. He did not have the typical symptoms of cough and fever. But it didn't take long before several colleagues he had contacted were infected Symptoms appeared one after another. But at this time, he still did not have the disease himself. After returning to Wuhan at the end of the meeting, he did not get the disease after another two days. 'Sheng Jifang introduced.

[snip]

From the observations of some early mild patients, the incubation period was about 10 days, the shortest incubation period was one day, and the longest was The incubation period is 14 days. The incubation period is contagious, which is very different from SARS.

Last Edited by NawtyBits on 01/26/2020 11:46 AM

h/t Shiloh at FT

[link to www.scmp.com (secure)]

Coronavirus contagious even in incubation stage, China’s health authority says

China’s National Health Commission (NHC) said on Sunday that the new coronavirus
is contagious even in its incubation period, which lasts up to 14 days, and that the virus’ ability to spread is getting stronger.

Ma Xiaowei, the minister in charge of the NHC, told a press briefing that the authorities’ understanding of the virus was “limited” and they were also unclear on the risks posed by possible mutations.

“The outbreak is expected to continue for some time,” he said.



Comment: If the imported cases caught the virus earlier, perhaps they caught it when the R0 was lower, and therefore aren't as contagious as newly infected. Maybe we dodged that bullet. Doesn't help us in the future, though.

6 confirmed Hong Kong.

Also, I saw a report that 2 of the earlier HK confirmed were Doctors/Medical professors from Wuhan who wnet to HK for better treatment.

Well, shit. There goes Plan B.

"Rumor 5: drinking can kill the virus

锡 Xin Yanxin, the leader of the pneumonia expert group for the treatment of new coronavirus infection in Hebei Province, said that the new coronavirus is indeed intolerant to alcohol, and alcohol has a good disinfection effect. However, after a person drinks alcohol, alcohol enters the bloodstream through the gastrointestinal tract and is eliminated by liver metabolism. The new type of coronavirus infection is that the virus enters the respiratory tract and causes airway and lung lesions. "After a person drinks alcohol, the content of alcohol in the airways is far from enough to kill the virus, so there is no possibility of drinking to prevent or treat new coronavirus infections. On the contrary, excessive drinking reduces the body's resistance and easily leads to more serious Infection. "Yan Xixin said."

[link to news.workercn.cn]

Sorry, I'm trying to get caught up, and the info changes with every click of the mouse.

8 confirmed in HK now.

h/t Shiloh at FT

[link to www.chinanews.com]

Two TR188 flights arrived in Wuhan, passengers confirmed to be infected with new pneumonia

Hangzhou, China

*15 confirmed cases of pneumonia. Among them, two Wuhan passengers who took off from Singapore and arrived in Hangzhou on TR188 flight were confirmed.


*male, 45 years old. This was a Wuhan passenger who took flight TR188 from Singapore to Hangzhou Xiaoshan International Airport.

* female, 26 years old. She took flight TR188 from Singapore to Hangzhou Xiaoshan International Airport. During the immigration investigation, she reported symptoms


Comment: So 2 Wuhanians(Wuhanites?) apparently traveled from home to Singapore, and then back to Hangzhou. There is no info on how long they were in Singapore, or if they knew each other, or anything, at all, really.

h/t penguinsix at FT

Protests erupting in Fanling Hong Kong over governments plan to make quarantine zone in unused public housing estate. Riot police arresting residents who have taken to the streets in opposition and reports of fire bombs being launched at the building.

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

h/t Treyfish at FT

[link to maritimebulletin.net]

Some 5,000 cruise passengers and 1,200 crew screened for coronavirus, 148 isolated

Cruise ship COSTA VENEZIA returned to Shenzhen port, southeastern China, link between Hong Kong and China’s mainland, in the morning Jan 26, after a 6-day cruise to Vietnam. On arrival, cruise ship was boarded my medical team, all 4973 passengers and 12 49 crew were checked by medics for symptoms of fever and pneumonia, 4 were found to have high temperature. 148 passengers who’re residents of Wuhan or visited Wuhan recently, were isolated for a stricter screening.

h/t Treyfish at FT

[link to www.china-briefing.com (secure)]

Coronavirus: Latest Emergency Measures Announced by the PRC Government



China’s central government has made an announcement concerning measures designed to combat the spread of the coronavirus, which has already been identified across many Chinese cities. The key points are as follows:

*The Chinese New Year holiday period will be extended “as appropriate”. This is designed to reduce the motivation for people to travel back from their home towns to where they work during this critical period.
*The start of the upcoming semester at schools and colleges around the country will also be delayed.

[snip]

*Suzhou residents currently outside of the city – are not to return to Suzhou. Those residents currently in Suzhou shall only move around when required. For companies operating within the administrative district, staff may not come back to work before February 8. Schools may not re-open before February 17. Exceptions exist for organizations involved in providing basic services for residents (provision of water, gas, electricity etc.) and those involved in combating the spread of the virus.

*For any Suzhou residents in transit (returning to Suzhou), inspections shall be carried out on every individual at stations, ports, roads, and highway exits. All such persons shall be restricted to their homes or sent to specialist facilities for a minimum period of 14 days after their return.

*Any resident who has traveled to Hubei in the past two weeks, or those who have had physical contact with people from Hubei, or those who have had physical contact with anyone already infected with the coronavirus – are required to report to a medical center to report their health condition and have their temperature taken. They should then be restricted to their homes or go to specialist facilities for observation.

*All meetings and gatherings are to be cancelled. Group social meals of all types, whether organized by companies or individuals, are prohibited. Any pre-planned events must be cancelled or delayed. All cinemas, leisure facilities, internet cafes, saunas, etc. are to be closed. Retirement homes and rehabilitation facilities are to be locked-down.

*

h/t hawkeye and sharon sanders at FT

[link to news.mingpao.com (secure)]

he outbreak of new-type coronavirus in the Mainland continues. Wuhan Mayor Zhou Xianwang said today (26th) that more than 5 million people have left Wuhan and another 9 million are still in the city. It is estimated that there may be another 1,000 confirmed cases in Wuhan.

h/t pathfinder at FT

National Health Commission of the PRC


Transcript of the press conference on January 26, 2020


*Now it is gradually adapting to survive in humans and entering the period of human-to-human transmission. From the current clinical cases, In some severe cases and some mild cases, the virus has begun to spread from person to person. According to recent clinical data, the transmission of the virus seems to have increased, and the toxicity and pathogenicity of the virus need to be analyzed based on more clinical data.
　　
*Judging from the present, the spread of the epidemic situation is relatively fast, which brings some challenges and pressures to prevention and control. Experts predict that the epidemic is now entering a more severe and complicated period,

* From the perspective of transmission characteristics, some patients have low or normal early body temperature, more mild cases, and recessive infection. At present, the infectivity of the virus is increasing, and the "walking source of infection" has greatly increased the difficulty of prevention and control. Judging from the epidemic situation, the main route is respiratory transmission. Our knowledge of the new coronavirus is still very limited, the source of infection has not been found, the mechanism of transmission and the mutation of the virus are unclear.

*There may be some new situations appearing, and the degree of harm of the virus to people of different ages is also changing.

* The incubation period is about 10 Around one day, the shortest was one day, and the longest was 14 days, which is very different from SARS. At present, the rate of development of the epidemic is accelerating. I am afraid that it will continue for some time, and the number of cases may increase.

*Virus mutation is a matter of great concern to everyone.

* No mutation has been found in the virus, because the differences between the viruses are very small, less than 1%, these differences are still being screened, and further monitoring is needed.

Last Edited by NawtyBits on 01/26/2020 12:33 PM

h/t ronan kelly at FT

[link to www.ettoday.net (secure)]

The Central Epidemic Epidemic Command Center pointed out on the evening of the 26th that the fourth patient diagnosed with pneumonia in Wuhan was a female in her 50s in the north. She had traveled to Wuhan on the 13th to 15th, and traveled to Europe on the 16th to 25th. Coughing symptoms appeared on the 22nd, and the cough worsened on the 25th. She returned to Taiwan by herself, wearing a mask on the plane and filling in the "Health Declaration Card for Passengers Entering the New Coronavirus Pneumonia", and informed the airport quarantine staff at the time of entry. Sent to hospital for treatment.

Last Edited by NawtyBits on 01/26/2020 12:37 PM

[link to gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com (secure)]

2116 confirmed

52 recovered

56 dead

~52% CFR
~2.6% Mortality rate

Dang.