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LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87

 
deplorable recollector

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LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
VERY IMPORTANT UPDATE :

February 15th, 16:30 GMT
A NEW, ADJUSTED MODEL IS NOW POSTED.
THE FORMED MODEL was deleted.


Important notes :

1.Testing kits are not reliable
2.African countries, India, South and Central America countries, Eastern Europe countries, Pakistan, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Cambodia, other SE Asian countries, all former Soviet republics, most Middle East either don't have testing kits, laboratories or simply are unable/unwilling to detect/confirm the COVID19 cases.
About 70% of the population outside China belong to the above countries - cca. 4.4 billion people, labeled as Category B countries.
3.Western Europe, Japan, the U.S., South Korea, Australia, New Zeeland, Singapore are most likely not confirming COVID19 cases to postpone the panic and prop the markets.
About 30% of the population outside China belong to the above countries - cca. 1.9 billion people, labeled as Category A countries.
4.Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau are considered as a part of the countries and cities outside China.

5.Confirmed cases are still announced the day after the testing is done (24hr lag).

The model is based on a number of 2,000-2,500 infected people outside China, on January 28th, with an infection rate that is doubling every 2.5 days.

Los Alamos Labs study, peer reviewed, acknowledges an infection rate doubling every 2.4 days..

[link to arxiv.org (secure)]

The novel coronavirus (2019‐nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread
widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2
to 2.7.
(from the study).

The previous model was based on an R0 of 2.4-2.6, with a 70-80% contagion chance, which resulted in an infection rate that was doubling every 22 hrs.. I was using the data that was known at that point.

World population outside China, with their respective share of infected cases (higher for India and Africa) :
India : 1,400,000,000 - (22,29%) - infected share: 27%
Africa : 1,216,000,000 - (19.35%) - infected share: 23%
North America : 368,000,000 - 5,85% : infected share: 5%
Central America + South America : 608,000,000 - 9.68% - infected share: 9%
Europe : 747,000,000 - 11.90% - infected share: 9%
Asia (minus China and India) : 1,900,000 - 30.25% - infected share: 27%


January(infected people):
28th : 2,000-2,500
29th : 3,200-4,000
30th : 4,400-5,500
31st : 5,600-7,000

February(infected people):
1st : 6,800-8,500
2nd : 8,000-10,000
3rd : 12,800-16,000

4th : 17,600-22,000
Presenting symptoms : 1,000-1,250
Serious/critical cases (18%): 202.

5th : 22,400-28,000
Presenting symptoms : 1,600-2,000

6th : 27,200-34,000 (275 confirmed, 20 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 2,200-2,750

7th : 32,000-40,000 (327 confirmed, 61 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 2,800-3,500
Serious/critical cases (18%): 567.

8th : 51,200-64,000 (354 confirmed, 64 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 3,400-4,250

9th : 70,400-88,000 (379 confirmed, 70 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 4,000-5,000

10th : 89,600-112,000 (461 confirmed, 135 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 6,400-8,000
Serious/critical cases (18%): 1,296.

11th : 108,800-136,000 (517 confirmed, 174 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 8,800-11,000 (+3,485 added from the staggered numbers from previous 7 days), for a median number of 13,355 for this day.
Serious/critical cases (18%): 2,403.

12th : 128,000-160,000 (523 confirmed, 174 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 11,200-14,000

13th : 204,800-256,000 (586 confirmed, 218 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 13,600-17,000
Serious/critical cases (18%): 2,754.

14th : 281,600-352,000 (608 confirmed, 218 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 16,000-20,000

15th : 358,400-448,000 (697 confirmed, 285 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 26,100-32,000

16th : 435,200-544,000 (781 confirmed, 355 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 35,200-44,000
Serious/critical cases (18%): 7,128.

17th : 512,000-640,000(896 confirmed, 454 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 44,800-56,000

18th : 819,000-1,024,000(999 confirmed, 542 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 54,400-68,000 (+20,048 added from the staggered numbers from previous 7 days), for a median number of 81,248 for this day.
Serious/critical cases (18%): 14,624.

19th : 1,126,000-1,408,000(1,116 confirmed, 621 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 64,000-80,000

20th : 1,433,000-1,792,000(1,198 confirmed, 634 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 102,400-128,000

21st : 1,740,000-2,176,000(1,379 confirmed, 634 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 140,800-176,000
N.America share (5%) : 87,000-108,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 7,040-8,800

Europe share (9%) : 156,000-195,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 12,672-15,840


22nd : 2,048,000-2,560,000(1,695 confirmed, 634 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 179,200-224,000
Serious/critical cases (18%): 36,288.
N.America share (5%) : 102,400-128,000 infected
Presenting symptoms :8,960-11,200

Europe share (9%) : 184,000-230,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 16,120-20,160


23rd : 3,277,000-4,096,000(2,052 confirmed, 691 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 217,600-272,000
N.America share (5%) : 163,850-204,800 infected
Presenting symptoms : 10,880-13,600

Europe share (9%) : 294,930-368,640 infected
Presenting symptoms : 19,500-24,500


24th : 4,506,000-5,632,000(2,429 confirmed, 691 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 256,000-320,000 (+128,953 added from the staggered numbers from previous 7 days), for a median number of 421,453 for this day.
Serious/critical cases (18%): 75,861.
N.America share (5%) : 225,300-281,600 infected
Presenting symptoms : 12,800-16,000

Europe share (9%) : 405,000-506,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 23,000-28,800

25th : 5,735,000-7,168,000(2,754 confirmed, 691 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 409,500-512,000


26th : 6,964,000-8,704,000
Presenting symptoms : 563,000-704,000
Serious/critical cases (18%): 114,030



27th : 8,192,000-10,240,000
Presenting symptoms : 716,500-896,000
N.America share (5%) : 409,600-512,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 35,800-44,800

Europe share (9%) : 737,000-921,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 64,500-80,600


28th : 13,107,000-16,384,000
Presenting symptoms : 870,000-1,088,000


29th : 18,022,000-22,528,000
Presenting symptoms :1,024,000-1,280,000
Serious/critical cases (18%): 207,360.


March(infected people):
1st : 22,937,000-28,672,000
Presenting symptoms : 1,638,500-2,048,000
N.America share (5%) : 1,146,800-1,433,600 infected
Presenting symptoms : 81,925-102,000

Europe share (9%) : 2,064,000-2,580,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 147,400-184,300


2nd : 27,852,000-34,816,000
Presenting symptoms : 2,253,000-2,816,000 (+610,807 added from the staggered numbers from previous 7 days), for a median number of 3,145,307 for this day.
Serious/critical cases (18%): 566,165.


3rd : 32,768,000-40,960,000
Presenting symptoms : 2,867,500-3,584,000
N.America share (5%) : 1,638,400-2,048,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 143,300-179,000

Europe share (9%) : 2,949,000-3,686,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 258,000-322,000


In the last days, most officially confirmed cases were detected roughly 7 days after symptoms appeared. There were some exceptions, with 15-21 days incubation period, but most were in the 7 day range.

However, a significant number of infected people will be asymptomatic for 12-14 or more days, which is roughly 40-50% of the infected people, at a given date. I will round it up to 50%.

The remaining 50% will be staggered for an additional 7 days, but in order to avoid adding a ton of numbers for every day, I will add them up every 7 days.

Applying this to my model, the number of symptomatic people on February 5th is about half the number of infected people on January 28th.

I will add the serious and critical cases (18% of the total) every 3-4 days and the days with the added staggered cases.

The current model points to an overload of the healthcare systems in Europe and the U.S. to start around mid-March, with Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan to start feeling the pressure at the end of February.

The former model was pointing that the healthcare systems would start feeling the pressure around mid-February for Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan, with Europe and U.S. by early March.

The former model was off by about 2 weeks.


The new model will have its critical period between March 2nd-March 8th., when it will be adjusted again, if new information regarding the R0, contagion chance and other related information come to light.

---------------------------------------------------------

Last Edited by deplorable recollector on 02/26/2020 09:28 AM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Britain leaves the EU on 31st January, so should be a walk in the park for Boris to isolate the UK as the whole country is already geared for it.
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Call the President demand all chinese fights be stopped
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Jake

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
you and I both know the RO number of 2.6 is bullpucky

more like 9.5

Last Edited by Jake on 01/28/2020 12:57 PM
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
you and I both know the RO number of 2.6 is bullpucky
 Quoting: Jake


For China and South East Asia it is.

By my model is adjusted for US, EU, Japan, SK, Australia, NZ and other developed countries to 2.2 in the incipient phase to 2.6 in the mid stage of the pandemic.

For South East Asia, the R0 is 2.6 in the incipient stage, and 3 in the mid stage of the pandemic.


After that, it won't matter how big the R0 is, the society will be collapsed anyway, and nobody will give a fuck about it.
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Long on preps
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
you and I both know the RO number of 2.6 is bullpucky
 Quoting: Jake


For China and South East Asia it is.

By my model is adjusted for US, EU, Japan, SK, Australia, NZ and other developed countries to 2.2 in the incipient phase to 2.6 in the mid stage of the pandemic.

For South East Asia, the R0 is 2.6 in the incipient stage, and 3 in the mid stage of the pandemic.


After that, it won't matter how big the R0 is, the society will be collapsed anyway, and nobody will give a fuck about it.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


true on the it wont matter part.

we are screwed I can feel it in my bones.
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
you and I both know the RO number of 2.6 is bullpucky
 Quoting: Jake


For China and South East Asia it is.

By my model is adjusted for US, EU, Japan, SK, Australia, NZ and other developed countries to 2.2 in the incipient phase to 2.6 in the mid stage of the pandemic.

For South East Asia, the R0 is 2.6 in the incipient stage, and 3 in the mid stage of the pandemic.


After that, it won't matter how big the R0 is, the society will be collapsed anyway, and nobody will give a fuck about it.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


true on the it wont matter part.

we are screwed I can feel it in my bones.
 Quoting: Jake


Oh yeah, we are. Big time.


This is why I bolded what it must be done to limit and eventually stop the pandemic...but we all know that they won't do it, until way too fucking late.


I also didn't bothered on death rate, because it is irrelevant. The social collapse will kill many more people than the virus will.

Last Edited by deplorable recollector on 01/28/2020 01:12 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
From the beginning, I want to specify that my model is only for the infection rate. Not death rate, and not confirmed cases by the authorities and governments. It is a mathematical model, based on 4 separate patterns :

-Chinese official number
-The commonly accepted R0 of 2.6 among many epidemiologists
-The Spanish Flu R0 of 1.8
-The weaponized virus R0 > 5

Starting from January 16th, all the patterns, except the one based on an Ro of 2.6 failed to apply.

The R0 = 2.6 pattern still stands, for China. However, considering that China is still allowing free travel among all provinces except Tibet (least populated and most isolated one) and Hubei (the epicenter of the pandemic), the R0 will jump over 3 by Sunday, February 2nd.

For the developed countries, with better hygiene, long history of flu (herd immunization) and high quality medical system, the R0 was skewed (for the time being) to 2.2.

If the developed countries will not stop ALL travel by Sunday, Feb. 2nd, the R0 will jump to 2.6.


Everyone can do their own math, applying an R0 = 2.2, for the develop countries, 2.4 for Asian countries and 2.6 for China, while adjusting the index for infection spread chance to 0.7-0.8.
As an example 10 x 2.2 x 0.7, for developed countries and 10 x 2.2 x 0.8 for SE Asia, South and Central America and Africa.

For those that don't want to do that, here is the infection spread, worldwide (except China mainland), starting with today, January 28th, with all the numbers adjusted :


January 28th 00:00 GMT :
Between 3,000 and 4,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 37-38 cases.

January 29th, 00:00 GMT :
Between 5,200 and 7,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 67-69 cases.

January 30th, 00:00 GMT : Between 8,000 and 12,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 103-106 cases.

January 31st, 00:00 GMT : 12,300 - 20,100 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 158 - 168 cases.

February 1st, 00:00 GMT : 18,900 - 30,900 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 243 - 258

February 2nd, 00:00 GMT : 29,100 - 47,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 374 - 397.

If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate.These are the numbers :

February 3rd, 00:00 GMT : 48,000 - 78,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 617 - 655

February 4th, 00:00 GMT : 79,200 - 128,700 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 1,018 - 1,080.

If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate.These are the numbers :

February 5th, 00:00 GMT : 139,000 - 226,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 1,790 - 1,900.


From this date on, the pandemic no longer can be contained, without full quarantine, at least for all major cities across the world. This will come with total economic collapse and the panic that will be widespread.

The huge difference between the number of infected in my model, is because most populated countries are also underdeveloped, and the virus will affect much more people in India and SE Asia.

If full or at last partial quarantine is not implemented by February 5th, in major cities across the world, the pandemic will spread as follow (adjusted for higher R0 and higher index for infection spread chance), with the mention that the numbers will be the median ones :

Feb 6th :345,000 infected with 3,600 presenting symptoms
Feb 7th :690,000 infected with 7,500 presenting symptoms
Feb 8th : 1,435,000 / 15,600
Feb 9th : 2,980,000 / 27,456
Feb 10th: 6,240,000 / 57,100
Feb 11th: 12,979,000 / 118,100
Feb 12th: 27,990,000 / 245,600
Feb 13th: 58,220,000 / 509,600
Feb 14th:121,970,000 /1,060,000
Feb 15th:253,697,000 /2,204,800

From February 16th, multiple health systems across the world will collapse.Hospitals will be overcrowded and unable to test and treat most of the patients.The social fabric will completely collapse, and the governments, if they delayed the quarantines, will have no other choice by to lock-down hundreds of millions of people in major and large to medium cities, with hundreds of million more will self-isolate in smaller cities, towns and villages.

There might be slight variations in my model, if some countries implement some travel restrictions here and there, some quarantines here and there...but anything except total quarantine is not going to work, but only delay the infection by mere DAYS.


I am going to end with what matters the most, for my model to HOPEFULLY fail :

FULL INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL MUST STOP BY FEB.3RD.
FULL LOCAL TRAVEL IN AFFECTED COUNTRIES MUST BE STOP BY FEB. 5TH.


If the above measures are not taking places, the pandemic will be catastrophic.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


well done sir! well done !

clappa
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Thank you! I hope this thread is pinned
Nickadimus

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Outstanding presentation OP.

Cheers

Nick®
Pure Life-Get it on...
JustBobTX

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
I'll green pin it. Thanks OP.

I tried. Too many right now.

Last Edited by JustBobTX on 01/28/2020 01:26 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
This is assuming a highly doubtful starting point:

January 28th 00:00 GMT : Between 3,000 and 4,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 37-38 cases.)

There is a lot of increasingly validated information out there demonstrating that there are 45,000 to as many as 140,000 infected people as of today. All due to intentional under-reporting or due to inability to diagnose actual cases (lack of supplies, staff, IT...).

Considering this, your scenario could be way too conservative.
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
For the curious ones that are anxiously waiting the new numbers from China :


The total number of confirmed cases that will be reported next by the Chinese government will be 8,099, give it a 1-2% error.

The REAL and total number of the infected people (asymptomatic and confirmed) in China is roughly 700,000 people, most of them in the 1-2 day incubation period.

Last Edited by deplorable recollector on 01/28/2020 01:27 PM
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
This is assuming a highly doubtful starting point:

January 28th 00:00 GMT : Between 3,000 and 4,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 37-38 cases.)

There is a lot of increasingly validated information out there demonstrating that there are 45,000 to as many as 140,000 infected people as of today. All due to intentional under-reporting or due to inability to diagnose actual cases (lack of supplies, staff, IT...).

Considering this, your scenario could be way too conservative.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77811278


I think you missed the part where my model is not for China.

The information you are talking about is for China.


My model for China, which is for fun only, since they are fucked anyway, is 690,000 infected people.

Last Edited by deplorable recollector on 01/28/2020 01:31 PM
freddy colins

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Britain leaves the EU on 31st January, so should be a walk in the park for Boris to isolate the UK as the whole country is already geared for it.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 75546315


keep an eye on the Establishment. they're slippery little critters.
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
This is assuming a highly doubtful starting point:

January 28th 00:00 GMT : Between 3,000 and 4,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 37-38 cases.)

There is a lot of increasingly validated information out there demonstrating that there are 45,000 to as many as 140,000 infected people as of today. All due to intentional under-reporting or due to inability to diagnose actual cases (lack of supplies, staff, IT...).

Considering this, your scenario could be way too conservative.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77811278


I think you missed the part where my model is not for China.

The information you are talking about is for China.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


I DID miss that, thanks. What's the math INSIDE China?
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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01/28/2020 01:32 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
This is assuming a highly doubtful starting point:

January 28th 00:00 GMT : Between 3,000 and 4,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 37-38 cases.)

There is a lot of increasingly validated information out there demonstrating that there are 45,000 to as many as 140,000 infected people as of today. All due to intentional under-reporting or due to inability to diagnose actual cases (lack of supplies, staff, IT...).

Considering this, your scenario could be way too conservative.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77811278


I think you missed the part where my model is not for China.

The information you are talking about is for China.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


I DID miss that, thanks. What's the math INSIDE China?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77811278


690,000 infected.

The Chinese should report 8,099 confirmed cases today, give it a 1-2% error.

So, a jump from 4,500 yesterday to 8,100 today.

Last Edited by deplorable recollector on 01/28/2020 01:35 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Thanks, OP! My husband came up with similar numbers.
Hey, hey, hey, hey-now. Don't be mean; we don't have to be mean, cuz, remember, no matter where you go, there you are. - Buckaroo Banzai:
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Thanks, OP! My husband came up with similar numbers.
 Quoting: NTimes


Thanks :).

hf
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bump
Deplorablemeeeeeeeee!​

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Outstanding work op
This some how has to get out to the public
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Call the President demand all chinese fights be stopped
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 Quoting: Jake


No more kung fu (OH NO COBRA KAI!)
deplorable recollector  (OP)

User ID: 73110508
Romania
01/28/2020 02:05 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Outstanding work op
This some how has to get out to the public
 Quoting: Deplorablemeeeeeeeee!


Thank you.

I have been promised a karma pin on this, but I guess it will come out later on today.

Last Edited by deplorable recollector on 01/28/2020 02:05 PM
Jake is stupid
User ID: 74734526
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01/28/2020 02:08 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
you and I both know the RO number of 2.6 is bullpucky

more like 9.5
 Quoting: Jake


You don’t know shit.
YAHWEHS WIFE
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01/28/2020 02:11 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
YAHWEH GAVE ME ZOMBIE DREAM THREE DAYS BEFORE THIS STARTED MEN WOMEN BABIES AND ANIMALS TURNED INTO ZOMBIES THEN HE GAVE ME A VISION I LIVE IN IDAHO BUT MY BODY WAS IN NY TIMES SQUARE LOOKING AT THE SIGNS AND THEN I HEARD THE WORD EPICENTER! THE VIRUS WILL SPREAD FROM THERE OR HUGE EARTH QUAKE MAY HAPPEN! PRAISE THE YUD HEY VAV HEY!
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 02:12 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Yeah baby! Bring on the doom!!!
deplorable recollector  (OP)

User ID: 73110508
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01/28/2020 02:13 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
I'll green pin it. Thanks OP.

I tried. Too many right now.
 Quoting: JustBobTX


Thanks.


Yeah, the pinned topics are maxed out:)
uh
User ID: 78219344
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01/28/2020 02:13 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
yeah...seems ABOUT RIGHT...UH.
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 02:13 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
5*

This is some real fact-based doom!
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 02:14 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Agreed, pe epee in coke must not be allowed to spread...





GLP