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WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

 
Revbo™

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05/16/2020 02:43 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
OP, as a third party observing and reading many, many threads on this subject, many of which present credible and convincing information, I find myself torn between the two positions:

NothingBurger vs Pending Disaster.

You are clearly on the PD side of the argument, and I have carefully followed this thread since it’s start.

At the same time, it is abundantly clear that this pandemic and the resulting actions was engineered and has an agenda behind it. The evidence is overwhelming. While the virus is quite real, the evidence clearly shows that it has also been greatly exaggerated and sensationalized.....for now.

When I consider your arguments together with “The Agenda” (which is timed for the November elections), I am leaning toward preparing against a CHANGE that will alter the course of history. An engineered change, but a change nonetheless. The details of that Change are the subject of a different thread, but I am posting this here because YOU, sir, are the reason I took certain actions in February before the collapse began. I rescued my investments before the market collapsed, and I stocked up on all manner of supplies before the panic buying began.

I am if the opinion that much of what we’ve seen has only been a trial run for what is coming, and that logically explains and supports the NothingBurger side of the argument.

It is crucial that we maintain BOTH sides of the argument for better clarity and clearer thinking, but I suspect YOUR argument will ultimately win out because of The Agenda.

Only divine Providence may later that.

So thank you for your continued work, and I encourage you to remain resolute and continue posting your findings and thoughts.
.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77432258


It doesn’t have to be all or nothing. There’s a continuum of doom. If, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 is nothingburger and 10 is apocalyptic disaster, it might be a 1 like the common cold or it might be a 10 like the Black Death. It’s already not a nothingburger because it’s killed a shitload of people and closed the world economy for months. It doesn’t look like it’s going to be Black Death either, so there’s some number between 2 and 9 where this will end up. I’d say we’re well past a 4 by now and it will probably shake out to be about an 8 on the disease side. On the economic side, we’re probably at about a 6 right now, but over time we may well hit 9 or 10.
 Quoting: Revbo™



This is a very interesting approach. No wonder, it's coming from Revbo.

You always deliver :)


If we do a scaling of what we are currently in, and what is going to be in the future, it's pretty bleak.


I would not go past 4, on the medical side. I'd say we are at a 3 right, with Brazil at a solid 6, U.S. and Europe probably over 4, but not well over 4.


Economically speaking, we are indeed at around 6 right now, and we are speeding towards a depression at least as bad as the one in the early 30's.

And that alone will make us hit at least an 8 by the end of the year, if not more.



Very interesting way to look at this crisis.


Thanks again Revbo.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Thanks for what you’ve done, my friend. You helped with the numbers early on and I’ve learned a lot following your posts.
John 8:32

And ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free.
Anonymous Coward
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05/16/2020 02:51 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
[link to twitter.com (secure)]

15.000 new cases in one day in brazil...I think things are getting out of control...
 Quoting: Futs



What is really worrying about Brazil is that they registered 220k cases after 735k tests.

That is a 30% positive case ratio.


Which have only one explanation : most people are tested at hospitals, where the testing is fast. And they are going to the hospitals because they got symptoms.


I don't know what to make of Brazil, but it seems that the slums are where most cases are, and when thinking of India...I expect a disaster there, on a scale 5 times bigger then Brazil, if not much bigger, considering their population density.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


brazil is a 5th world shithole with 210million peope and the same area as china and the usa. its game over there, it is impossible to even get an idea whats going on there. 90% of the country is still in the stone age and 99% of the population is broke as fuck. to add insult to injury its a country with an extremely rich elite of maximum 10k people that doesnt give a fuck about the country.

it is safe to assume that by the end of the year the pandemic will be over there because everbody gets infected by then and those who need to die die.

and brazil is just one of the many.
Gonsanzsky

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05/16/2020 03:00 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
PO, do you have any thoughts on why much of Africa seems to have a low rate? Some major urban areas where one would think this thing would quickly spread. Its not a matter of race as blacks in the US are hit a higher rate than whites.
Gonsanzsky
Vegz

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05/16/2020 03:10 PM

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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
PO, do you have any thoughts on why much of Africa seems to have a low rate? Some major urban areas where one would think this thing would quickly spread. Its not a matter of race as blacks in the US are hit a higher rate than whites.
 Quoting: Gonsanzsky


Probably lack of proper testing capabilities.
The bad news is nothing lasts forever. The good news is nothing lasts forever.
Red Hot Chilean Pepe

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05/16/2020 03:16 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
PO, do you have any thoughts on why much of Africa seems to have a low rate? Some major urban areas where one would think this thing would quickly spread. Its not a matter of race as blacks in the US are hit a higher rate than whites.
 Quoting: Gonsanzsky


Probably lack of proper testing capabilities.
 Quoting: Vegz


A mix of this and also much less public health coverage so if there are many cases they don’t have much help to begin with. So probably many sick people but no one really counting and health systems that were already bad to begin with, simply not being able to respond under pressure.
All great truths begin as Blasphemies.
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Storm2come
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05/16/2020 03:40 PM

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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
PO, do you have any thoughts on why much of Africa seems to have a low rate? Some major urban areas where one would think this thing would quickly spread. Its not a matter of race as blacks in the US are hit a higher rate than whites.
 Quoting: Gonsanzsky


Probably lack of proper testing capabilities.
 Quoting: Vegz


A mix of this and also much less public health coverage so if there are many cases they don’t have much help to begin with. So probably many sick people but no one really counting and health systems that were already bad to begin with, simply not being able to respond under pressure.
 Quoting: Red Hot Chilean Pepe


there is also the possibility that, after all of the different virus outbreaks, that their immune systems are stronger than the rest of ours.

I used to live in a house that had black mold, and when everyone else would catch a cold going around, I wouldn't
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ParamedicUK

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05/16/2020 03:44 PM

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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
OP

It seems I am misinformed!

I thought the R number the UK Government speaks of was the R0 value.

Is it then the Re value which takes into account population immunity.

I assume in the early stages on a pandemic R0 is close to Re?

Is this right or is the so called R value something else related ??

Last Edited by ParamedicUK on 05/16/2020 03:55 PM
Herd immunity and vaccine free is the only way……

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peterpeccary

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05/16/2020 03:45 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
I'm taking the lull between now and July to get my final preps and finances in order.....people are thinking summer fun and caution is thrown to the wind.....I see less people with masks/distancing every day....

The states that reopened first will be our canaries in the mines....

Of course OP could be wrong and the virus mutates to harmlessness ......I would welcome that....I wouldn't even feel bad about the thousands of dollars I spent on preps already......its peanuts compared to my losses in NYC real estate....

I rather feel foolish later than see my family suffer.....
Red Hot Chilean Pepe

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05/16/2020 03:47 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
PO, do you have any thoughts on why much of Africa seems to have a low rate? Some major urban areas where one would think this thing would quickly spread. Its not a matter of race as blacks in the US are hit a higher rate than whites.
 Quoting: Gonsanzsky


Probably lack of proper testing capabilities.
 Quoting: Vegz


A mix of this and also much less public health coverage so if there are many cases they don’t have much help to begin with. So probably many sick people but no one really counting and health systems that were already bad to begin with, simply not being able to respond under pressure.
 Quoting: Red Hot Chilean Pepe


there is also the possibility that, after all of the different virus outbreaks, that their immune systems are stronger than the rest of ours.

I used to live in a house that had black mold, and when everyone else would catch a cold going around, I wouldn't
 Quoting: Storm2come


Immunity is rather very specific, so unless whatever new pathogen one is exposed to has a cross specificity on the immunity with past Experienced pathogens, one can’t really say that you have a “strong immunity”.
All great truths begin as Blasphemies.
G.B.S.

GLP is like a diamond mine of information, in the sense that you have to shovel mountains of crap to find the diamonds, but it's still worth the pain.
Anonymous Coward
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05/16/2020 03:47 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
DR-
Just passing this along.

GOOD NEWS: HUMAN BODY BUILDS “ROBUST” IMMUNE RESPONSE TO COVID

[link to futurism.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76414193



There is absolutely no way I am going to consider any crap coming from Cali, after their "study" on antibodies was basically a fraud.


Sorry, but everyone else alive is saying and proving the opposite : the human body immune system is no match for this virus, especially after findings that the virus is attacking and destroying the T-cells.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


This distinction is important: it wasn't Cali's study. It was a corporate funded study (JetBlue) which a number of scientists refused to back because it was poorly done. But right wing media got a hold of the faulty study and ran with it and refuses to refute it even as every other thinking person including scientists from California has publicly refuted it and criticized it.

Corporate money bought a bunch of scientists.
Red Hot Chilean Pepe

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05/16/2020 03:49 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
DR-
Just passing this along.

GOOD NEWS: HUMAN BODY BUILDS “ROBUST” IMMUNE RESPONSE TO COVID

[link to futurism.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76414193



There is absolutely no way I am going to consider any crap coming from Cali, after their "study" on antibodies was basically a fraud.


Sorry, but everyone else alive is saying and proving the opposite : the human body immune system is no match for this virus, especially after findings that the virus is attacking and destroying the T-cells.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


This distinction is important: it wasn't Cali's study. It was a corporate funded study (JetBlue) which a number of scientists refused to back because it was poorly done. But right wing media got a hold of the faulty study and ran with it and refuses to refute it even as every other thinking person including scientists from California has publicly refuted it and criticized it.

Corporate money bought a bunch of scientists.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21129064


Any study that does not disclose conflict of interests is probably not worth the pain to read.
All great truths begin as Blasphemies.
G.B.S.

GLP is like a diamond mine of information, in the sense that you have to shovel mountains of crap to find the diamonds, but it's still worth the pain.
beau voir

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05/16/2020 04:31 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
...


Probably lack of proper testing capabilities.
 Quoting: Vegz


A mix of this and also much less public health coverage so if there are many cases they don’t have much help to begin with. So probably many sick people but no one really counting and health systems that were already bad to begin with, simply not being able to respond under pressure.
 Quoting: Red Hot Chilean Pepe


there is also the possibility that, after all of the different virus outbreaks, that their immune systems are stronger than the rest of ours.

I used to live in a house that had black mold, and when everyone else would catch a cold going around, I wouldn't
 Quoting: Storm2come


Immunity is rather very specific, so unless whatever new pathogen one is exposed to has a cross specificity on the immunity with past Experienced pathogens, one can’t really say that you have a “strong immunity”.
 Quoting: Red Hot Chilean Pepe


True,Boom,xxx.
beau voir
Anonymous Coward
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05/16/2020 09:59 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
OP, as a third party observing and reading many, many threads on this subject, many of which present credible and convincing information, I find myself torn between the two positions:

NothingBurger vs Pending Disaster.

You are clearly on the PD side of the argument, and I have carefully followed this thread since it’s start.

At the same time, it is abundantly clear that this pandemic and the resulting actions was engineered and has an agenda behind it. The evidence is overwhelming. While the virus is quite real, the evidence clearly shows that it has also been greatly exaggerated and sensationalized.....for now.

When I consider your arguments together with “The Agenda” (which is timed for the November elections), I am leaning toward preparing against a CHANGE that will alter the course of history. An engineered change, but a change nonetheless. The details of that Change are the subject of a different thread, but I am posting this here because YOU, sir, are the reason I took certain actions in February before the collapse began. I rescued my investments before the market collapsed, and I stocked up on all manner of supplies before the panic buying began.

I am if the opinion that much of what we’ve seen has only been a trial run for what is coming, and that logically explains and supports the NothingBurger side of the argument.

It is crucial that we maintain BOTH sides of the argument for better clarity and clearer thinking, but I suspect YOUR argument will ultimately win out because of The Agenda.

Only divine Providence may later that.

So thank you for your continued work, and I encourage you to remain resolute and continue posting your findings and thoughts.
.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77432258


I've also been following dr's work since the beginning. Due to his fine work, I've also been spared a lot of misery in the present and the future by following this thread.

I've been thinking along the same lines as you and I'm kind of curious about your details of that Change. Would you be willing to share your thoughts with us? I'll respond in kind with mine.

Thanks a lot for your thought provoking post.
piratedon

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05/16/2020 10:34 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Reconciling between the two narratives is difficult. There is little statistical evidence of worldwide divergent mortality (from the historical) that I can find to negotiate this territory. [link to www.nytimes.com (secure)] has been updated recently and is being maintained.

My conclusion is that we will have to wait. Both narratives have very credible proponents. Perhaps we can distinguish them as the hide and go narratives or some such. The hide has achieved prominence here but the go is beginning to gain traction. The precautionary principle pushes for hide.

The go narrative can be confirmed with confidence if there is a sustained trend to lower excess mortality over time. Especially in those places where the virus has greatly increased mortality.

The essential assumption of the go narrative may be that this is another virus of the sort previously encountered by our species while the hide narrative embraces the possibility that this virus has been intelligently designed to kill humans.

At the moment the more we know the more we know we don't know. Many comment that the virus confounds us at every turn.
piratedon
bijou

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05/16/2020 10:51 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
If there was an increase in mortality, above the average numbers, the anti trumpers and fake media would have it on repeat.
Our overall death rate did not go up.
Red Hot Chilean Pepe

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05/16/2020 11:01 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
If there was an increase in mortality, above the average numbers, the anti trumpers and fake media would have it on repeat.
Our overall death rate did not go up.
 Quoting: bijou


It has.

[link to www.ft.com (secure)]
All great truths begin as Blasphemies.
G.B.S.

GLP is like a diamond mine of information, in the sense that you have to shovel mountains of crap to find the diamonds, but it's still worth the pain.
piratedon

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05/16/2020 11:04 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
If there was an increase in mortality, above the average numbers, the anti trumpers and fake media would have it on repeat.
Our overall death rate did not go up.
 Quoting: bijou


Can you support your assertion with evidence?
piratedon
Anonymous Coward
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05/17/2020 01:51 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
PO, do you have any thoughts on why much of Africa seems to have a low rate? Some major urban areas where one would think this thing would quickly spread. Its not a matter of race as blacks in the US are hit a higher rate than whites.
 Quoting: Gonsanzsky


Could be due, in large part, to African demographics. 20 years old is already old there. The population is mostly unaffected because, unlike the West, they are young and strong. Plus they can deal with some death and sickness with life going on - kind of like the US did when there was the Asian Flu in the 1950's.
Anonymous Coward
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05/17/2020 02:59 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Insightful article comparing this pandemic and the Hong Kong Flu:

[link to nypost.com (secure)]
piratedon

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05/17/2020 04:35 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Insightful article comparing this pandemic and the Hong Kong Flu:

[link to nypost.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78909698


Yes a good article. On the surface supporting the go narrative. I was a teenager then. Thinking whats different now. We didn't recognize ourselves as a plague on our planet. We would not have believed that anyone could intentionally release a virus and science didn't have the technology to do the things in labs that are now routinely done. We believed in science and scientists.

Now we have detailed knowledge of corruption (the real pandemic?) by our governments, business and the cohorts owned by both. I don't imagine that "gain of function" was even thought of.

The hide narrative needs more time but with it's dominance we may be losing the ability to secure food, warmth, health and shelter for ourselves.
piratedon
Futs

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05/17/2020 06:00 AM

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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
[link to www.USE_FULL_LINKwww.forbes.com (secure)]

More bad news.....
Italiano Deplorevole
The Gathering Storm

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05/17/2020 06:56 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
The drive to get kids back to school in the UK is all bout the reopening of the economy and getting people back to work. They cant say keep the schools closed but have the parents return to work or stop working from home. I would rather see the full reopening of parliament first.
Anonymous Coward
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05/17/2020 10:23 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
DR-
I don’t have access to the full article. But wanted to share.
I can see they are comparing the modeling to Mariner-1

Neil Ferguson's Imperial model could be the most devastating software mistake of all time

[link to www.telegraph.co.uk (secure)]
Terces Egassem

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05/17/2020 10:45 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
DR-
I don’t have access to the full article. But wanted to share.
I can see they are comparing the modeling to Mariner-1

Neil Ferguson's Imperial model could be the most devastating software mistake of all time

[link to www.telegraph.co.uk (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76438506


Computer Model That Locked Down The World Turns Out To Be Sh*tcode

[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
>(S)<Sims
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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05/17/2020 11:10 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
I am not going to defend a person or an institution here. Just going to defend a model.


Imperial College model was taking into consideration a projection that would have take place if the U.K. would continue on the "herd immunity" path (no lock-down, schools open, no masks, no nothing, basically no changes at all), and to be honest, I think that 500k deaths in U.K. was optimistic.


That was the Imperial College model.


The lock-down in the U.K. was decided NOT because of that model, but because the number of cases in the EARLY STAGES of the "herd immunity" fiasco were too high, even higher then the model of IC, so the government realized that they HAD to lock-down, and the "herd immunity" path was wrong.


People are making many assumptions, without doing proper research, and simply comparing numbers under lock-downs with numbers from a HEADLINE, in this case, 34k registered deaths with 500k deaths.


If the U.K. would have not locked-down, the deaths would have surpassed 500k by year's end, by a large margin.

Last Edited by Recollector on 05/17/2020 11:11 AM
Anonymous Coward
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05/17/2020 11:32 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
I am not going to defend a person or an institution here. Just going to defend a model.


Imperial College model was taking into consideration a projection that would have take place if the U.K. would continue on the "herd immunity" path (no lock-down, schools open, no masks, no nothing, basically no changes at all), and to be honest, I think that 500k deaths in U.K. was optimistic.


That was the Imperial College model.


The lock-down in the U.K. was decided NOT because of that model, but because the number of cases in the EARLY STAGES of the "herd immunity" fiasco were too high, even higher then the model of IC, so the government realized that they HAD to lock-down, and the "herd immunity" path was wrong.


People are making many assumptions, without doing proper research, and simply comparing numbers under lock-downs with numbers from a HEADLINE, in this case, 34k registered deaths with 500k deaths.


If the U.K. would have not locked-down, the deaths would have surpassed 500k by year's end, by a large margin.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


DR-
Never expected you to defend them. I find it interesting that everyone is trying to distance themselves from it as much as possible. Of course only now because there aren’t 500k dead. Yet no one wants to stand up and say that the model was forecasting what could have happened with no interventions.

This is literally the “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” scenario. Everyone is quick to forget why we locked down to begin with.

We see this playing out in other areas as well. The claims of “no significant increase since restrictions lifted..etc”. It is amazing how quick the human mind will employ cognitive dissonance. This seems especially true as one perceives that another will benefit more from “opening up”, they in turn are becoming more hostile toward the protections that were implemented when even fewer in their community were infected.

The perception of “what’s bad” is changing and they (the general population) are willing to tolerate more as time goes on, as long as it doesn’t specifically impact them.

As the general population becomes more embolden, it will take bodies in the streets for them to recognize any relevant danger.

Unless this virus has magically become less dangerous, there is a very real potential that the 2nd wave will be devastating.
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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05/17/2020 11:43 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
I am not going to defend a person or an institution here. Just going to defend a model.


Imperial College model was taking into consideration a projection that would have take place if the U.K. would continue on the "herd immunity" path (no lock-down, schools open, no masks, no nothing, basically no changes at all), and to be honest, I think that 500k deaths in U.K. was optimistic.


That was the Imperial College model.


The lock-down in the U.K. was decided NOT because of that model, but because the number of cases in the EARLY STAGES of the "herd immunity" fiasco were too high, even higher then the model of IC, so the government realized that they HAD to lock-down, and the "herd immunity" path was wrong.


People are making many assumptions, without doing proper research, and simply comparing numbers under lock-downs with numbers from a HEADLINE, in this case, 34k registered deaths with 500k deaths.


If the U.K. would have not locked-down, the deaths would have surpassed 500k by year's end, by a large margin.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


DR-
Never expected you to defend them. I find it interesting that everyone is trying to distance themselves from it as much as possible. Of course only now because there aren’t 500k dead. Yet no one wants to stand up and say that the model was forecasting what could have happened with no interventions.

This is literally the “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” scenario. Everyone is quick to forget why we locked down to begin with.

We see this playing out in other areas as well. The claims of “no significant increase since restrictions lifted..etc”. It is amazing how quick the human mind will employ cognitive dissonance. This seems especially true as one perceives that another will benefit more from “opening up”, they in turn are becoming more hostile toward the protections that were implemented when even fewer in their community were infected.

The perception of “what’s bad” is changing and they (the general population) are willing to tolerate more as time goes on, as long as it doesn’t specifically impact them.

As the general population becomes more embolden, it will take bodies in the streets for them to recognize any relevant danger.

Unless this virus has magically become less dangerous, there is a very real potential that the 2nd wave will be devastating.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76438506



This, among other reasons, is why I am patiently waiting for mid-June, when I know that reopening will show their effects.


Most people don't get it.


It takes time for the virus to rebuild after lock-downs, and it will take a solid 3-4 weeks before we can see that.


We are just 1 week into this. Nobody reopened (PROPERLY reopening) earlier then May 11th.

Sure, stay at home orders in some places ended 3 weeks ago, but reopening was just started one week ago, in almost all countries, and only first phase.

Last Edited by Recollector on 05/17/2020 11:44 AM
Red Hot Chilean Pepe

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05/17/2020 11:54 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
I am not going to defend a person or an institution here. Just going to defend a model.


Imperial College model was taking into consideration a projection that would have take place if the U.K. would continue on the "herd immunity" path (no lock-down, schools open, no masks, no nothing, basically no changes at all), and to be honest, I think that 500k deaths in U.K. was optimistic.


That was the Imperial College model.


The lock-down in the U.K. was decided NOT because of that model, but because the number of cases in the EARLY STAGES of the "herd immunity" fiasco were too high, even higher then the model of IC, so the government realized that they HAD to lock-down, and the "herd immunity" path was wrong.


People are making many assumptions, without doing proper research, and simply comparing numbers under lock-downs with numbers from a HEADLINE, in this case, 34k registered deaths with 500k deaths.


If the U.K. would have not locked-down, the deaths would have surpassed 500k by year's end, by a large margin.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


DR-
Never expected you to defend them. I find it interesting that everyone is trying to distance themselves from it as much as possible. Of course only now because there aren’t 500k dead. Yet no one wants to stand up and say that the model was forecasting what could have happened with no interventions.

This is literally the “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” scenario. Everyone is quick to forget why we locked down to begin with.

We see this playing out in other areas as well. The claims of “no significant increase since restrictions lifted..etc”. It is amazing how quick the human mind will employ cognitive dissonance. This seems especially true as one perceives that another will benefit more from “opening up”, they in turn are becoming more hostile toward the protections that were implemented when even fewer in their community were infected.

The perception of “what’s bad” is changing and they (the general population) are willing to tolerate more as time goes on, as long as it doesn’t specifically impact them.

As the general population becomes more embolden, it will take bodies in the streets for them to recognize any relevant danger.

Unless this virus has magically become less dangerous, there is a very real potential that the 2nd wave will be devastating.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76438506



This, among other reasons, is why I am patiently waiting for mid-June, when I know that reopening will show their effects.


Most people don't get it.


It takes time for the virus to rebuild after lock-downs, and it will take a solid 3-4 weeks before we can see that.


We are just 1 week into this. Nobody reopened (PROPERLY reopening) earlier then May 11th.

Sure, stay at home orders in some places ended 3 weeks ago, but reopening was just started one week ago, in almost all countries, and only first phase.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Indeed, in the era of instant satisfaction people have lost the ability of seeing that any phenomena has an underlying process that can take time to develop to a visible stage, but is happening like clockwork as we wait.

Only people that knows how it works are taking the proper precautions.

BTW OP, do you know if the Czech study was published as a paper or is only available as a web based page in the Czech Health ministry website?

I watched Dr. Campbell talking in his yesterday’s YouTube video and he talked with some level of analysis about the Spain study that found the 5% of average prevalence. He then compared this massive sample study with the ones of Germany and New York to my great disappointment, so I want to find the Czech study in a paper format to send it to him and make him rethink his assessment of the NY and German studies with an appalling low sample number and high infection rate.

This is the video:



Last Edited by Red Hot Chilean Pepe on 05/17/2020 11:57 AM
All great truths begin as Blasphemies.
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Oscanator

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05/17/2020 12:05 PM

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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
[link to nypost.com (secure)]

WE ARE DOOMED!!!!

Last Edited by Oscanator on 05/17/2020 12:06 PM
Red Hot Chilean Pepe

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05/17/2020 12:08 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
[link to nypost.com (secure)]

WE ARE DOOMED!!!!
 Quoting: Oscanator


Hope you are not just trolling, link is invalid.

Edit to add:

You have a typo in the link, valid one is this:

[link to nypost.com (secure)]

Anyway, and as OP says, we will see the effects in 4 weeks. If there are people with the virus in these crowds, the infection will probably have a sharp increase.

Last Edited by Red Hot Chilean Pepe on 05/17/2020 12:12 PM
All great truths begin as Blasphemies.
G.B.S.

GLP is like a diamond mine of information, in the sense that you have to shovel mountains of crap to find the diamonds, but it's still worth the pain.





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