WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month | |
Vegz User ID: 40802708 United States 06/16/2020 02:53 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | It looks more like Covid-19 has its origins in Europe because it's the only explanation for the low death rates there. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78951474 It was an unrecognized new flu variant of the Corona-family which was present long before 2020 in Europe. People gained herd-immunity and that was it in Europe. But then Covid-19 came to China, Wuhan, and it seems so that asian people are way more vulnerable for this virus than Europeans, therefore the many deads there. Now another Covid-19-mutation from Europe has reached China again, and the people there are still more vulnerable. Therefore many deaths must be expected again in Asia. USA is maybe between Europe and China, more deaths like in Europe but lesser than in China. So this is Covid-19: A flu which is really dangerous for asian people, medium dangerous for american people and a low danger for Europeans. WOW....I cannot find 1, not a single fact or accurate statement anywhere in your entire post! The bad news is nothing lasts forever. The good news is nothing lasts forever. |
Sir France's Beercan User ID: 67635962 United Kingdom 06/16/2020 03:07 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | It looks more like Covid-19 has its origins in Europe because it's the only explanation for the low death rates there. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78951474 It was an unrecognized new flu variant of the Corona-family which was present long before 2020 in Europe. People gained herd-immunity and that was it in Europe. But then Covid-19 came to China, Wuhan, and it seems so that asian people are way more vulnerable for this virus than Europeans, therefore the many deads there. Now another Covid-19-mutation from Europe has reached China again, and the people there are still more vulnerable. Therefore many deaths must be expected again in Asia. USA is maybe between Europe and China, more deaths like in Europe but lesser than in China. So this is Covid-19: A flu which is really dangerous for asian people, medium dangerous for american people and a low danger for Europeans. This publicity broadcast came to you in association with the Institute of European Tourism. |
serkok User ID: 1762182 Czechia 06/16/2020 03:14 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78491666 United States 06/16/2020 03:55 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 79027879 06/16/2020 04:06 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | It looks more like Covid-19 has its origins in Europe because it's the only explanation for the low death rates there. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78951474 It was an unrecognized new flu variant of the Corona-family which was present long before 2020 in Europe. People gained herd-immunity and that was it in Europe. But then Covid-19 came to China, Wuhan, and it seems so that asian people are way more vulnerable for this virus than Europeans, therefore the many deads there. Now another Covid-19-mutation from Europe has reached China again, and the people there are still more vulnerable. Therefore many deaths must be expected again in Asia. USA is maybe between Europe and China, more deaths like in Europe but lesser than in China. So this is Covid-19: A flu which is really dangerous for asian people, medium dangerous for american people and a low danger for Europeans. Looks like it is February all over again. FFS. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 41139342 United States 06/16/2020 04:27 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | It looks more like Covid-19 has its origins in Europe because it's the only explanation for the low death rates there. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78951474 It was an unrecognized new flu variant of the Corona-family which was present long before 2020 in Europe. People gained herd-immunity and that was it in Europe. But then Covid-19 came to China, Wuhan, and it seems so that asian people are way more vulnerable for this virus than Europeans, therefore the many deads there. Now another Covid-19-mutation from Europe has reached China again, and the people there are still more vulnerable. Therefore many deaths must be expected again in Asia. USA is maybe between Europe and China, more deaths like in Europe but lesser than in China. So this is Covid-19: A flu which is really dangerous for asian people, medium dangerous for american people and a low danger for Europeans. Well, didn't you just pull that out of a hat. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 41139342 United States 06/16/2020 04:47 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 79036706 Germany 06/16/2020 04:59 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | It looks more like Covid-19 has its origins in Europe because it's the only explanation for the low death rates there. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78951474 It was an unrecognized new flu variant of the Corona-family which was present long before 2020 in Europe. People gained herd-immunity and that was it in Europe. But then Covid-19 came to China, Wuhan, and it seems so that asian people are way more vulnerable for this virus than Europeans, therefore the many deads there. Now another Covid-19-mutation from Europe has reached China again, and the people there are still more vulnerable. Therefore many deaths must be expected again in Asia. USA is maybe between Europe and China, more deaths like in Europe but lesser than in China. So this is Covid-19: A flu which is really dangerous for asian people, medium dangerous for american people and a low danger for Europeans. try to bring in a little more mutation, then it will look more exciting that's total crap |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 90977 United Kingdom 06/16/2020 05:17 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I am interested how the European governments are going to sell the second wave. Everyone has been told the virus is in decline and normality is returning? Quoting: ParamedicUK Mate its a HUGE STINKING STORM OF RUNNY, GUT TURNING SMELLING SHIT! The general concensus is its gone, nobody believes its still here, hell my boss is talking a holuday in Egypt for Christmas with his k8ds. Its shocking me how complacent people have become. 5 hour Ques for shopping you dont need in Orimark fighting to get through doors to get that £2.00T shirt, rioting abd fighting in streets, partying likes it's a normal June. The list goes on and on. No major reporting now on MSMits all the BLM Bollix and Maddy McCann. Both of which are horrific, I must add, but compared to what is going to be unlwashed, thesr little things in the big picture, mean SWEET FA. Government policies that I scratch my head at, its just a comedy of errors! I honestly feel like I am living in a movie at this present time. Rant over xx |
beau voir User ID: 77975641 Canada 06/16/2020 05:35 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I agree 100% with r. c.d. but this is just the bottom wave pulling your feet backwards to drag you towards its back power towards the bottom. . . in the tsunami we are about to experience, this bottom wave adds us to the open sea keeps what really awaits us. . . is multiple times 100% to 1000? why because it is a ;global"; cleaning of. . for. the TOTAL";. tsunami. . the steps follow as a tide with ever higher waves (let's say this means our (usual) life system, a tsunami comes. (. be aware after such a change WE WILL WILL LIVE) there is almost nothing left . . . for a wave + strong,it draws the water in power,the. accumulation,less waves on the ground. at the usual place. . we have a very large planetary tsunami that's already on its way. good luck and pray. beau voir |
Master Gardener USA User ID: 78882047 United States 06/16/2020 05:54 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | It looks more like Covid-19 has its origins in Europe because it's the only explanation for the low death rates there. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78951474 It was an unrecognized new flu variant of the Corona-family which was present long before 2020 in Europe. People gained herd-immunity and that was it in Europe. But then Covid-19 came to China, Wuhan, and it seems so that asian people are way more vulnerable for this virus than Europeans, therefore the many deads there. Now another Covid-19-mutation from Europe has reached China again, and the people there are still more vulnerable. Therefore many deaths must be expected again in Asia. USA is maybe between Europe and China, more deaths like in Europe but lesser than in China. So this is Covid-19: A flu which is really dangerous for asian people, medium dangerous for american people and a low danger for Europeans. Looks like it is February all over again. FFS. Looks like it is February all over again. FFS. This statement resonated. I still have February's stats on my chalkboard. |
beau voir User ID: 77975641 Canada 06/16/2020 05:55 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I agree 100% with r. c.d. but this is just the bottom wave pulling your feet backwards to drag you towards its back power towards the bottom. . . in the tsunami we are about to experience, this bottom wave adds us to the open sea keeps what really awaits us. . . is multiple times 100% to 1000? why because it is a ;global"; cleaning of. . for. the TOTAL";. tsunami. . the steps follow as a tide with ever higher waves (let's say this means our (usual) life system, a tsunami comes. (. be aware after such a change WE WILL WILL LIVE) there is almost nothing left . . . for a wave + strong,it draws the water in power,the. accumulation,less waves on the ground. at the usual place. . Quoting: beau voir we have a very large planetary tsunami that's already on its way. good luck and pray. 102 / 1024 what do you think my friend chili. pepe (I love grandpa. . . and granny) take care of you and your family.xxx. beau voir |
Lady Jayne Smith Forum Administrator 06/16/2020 05:59 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | It looks more like Covid-19 has its origins in Europe because it's the only explanation for the low death rates there. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78951474 It was an unrecognized new flu variant of the Corona-family which was present long before 2020 in Europe. People gained herd-immunity and that was it in Europe. But then Covid-19 came to China, Wuhan, and it seems so that asian people are way more vulnerable for this virus than Europeans, therefore the many deads there. Now another Covid-19-mutation from Europe has reached China again, and the people there are still more vulnerable. Therefore many deaths must be expected again in Asia. USA is maybe between Europe and China, more deaths like in Europe but lesser than in China. So this is Covid-19: A flu which is really dangerous for asian people, medium dangerous for american people and a low danger for Europeans. Did you just wake up from a very, very long nap? Fate whispers to the warrior "You cannot withstand the storm" the warrior whispers back "I am the storm" INTJ-A |
Northlights User ID: 78106211 Norway 06/16/2020 05:59 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | It looks more like Covid-19 has its origins in Europe because it's the only explanation for the low death rates there. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78951474 It was an unrecognized new flu variant of the Corona-family which was present long before 2020 in Europe. People gained herd-immunity and that was it in Europe. But then Covid-19 came to China, Wuhan, and it seems so that asian people are way more vulnerable for this virus than Europeans, therefore the many deads there. Now another Covid-19-mutation from Europe has reached China again, and the people there are still more vulnerable. Therefore many deaths must be expected again in Asia. USA is maybe between Europe and China, more deaths like in Europe but lesser than in China. So this is Covid-19: A flu which is really dangerous for asian people, medium dangerous for american people and a low danger for Europeans. There is actually speculations about this, and a scientific study has been started on a small island off the coast of Italy where there have not been any cases of Covid . But they did have atypical pneumonia a while ago. |
Storm2come Natural Law always wins in the end User ID: 24761162 United States 06/16/2020 06:11 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Thread: Partial crustal shift and the Sun / earth , new EARTH UNDER FIRE video pg 116 Thread: Om frequencies, which one works for you?? If someone produces wealth and money, you have no right to tell them how to spend it.- Ayn Rand |
Covid19sars2.0 User ID: 72336146 06/16/2020 06:13 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Thanks for your update. Love reading your posts. Thanks a lot I apologise for my spelling and grammar, Dyslexia is a biatch. But add on MS and its a whole new world of magic spelling and rambling. We all love green, thanks in advance :) So thats how it is, deal with it or keep walking. We all love green. Thanks in advance :) |
beau voir User ID: 77975641 Canada 06/16/2020 06:22 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | ...deleted so as not to clog up the thread. Quoting: deplorable recollector The key period is going to be October 2020 to May 2021, regardless if the second wave started already or it will start in October. Prepare for the worst to come, because what we experience now, is nothing compared to what is to come this fall. Just wanted to say thanks for continuing forward with your analysis. I have been following this thread the whole time, I just really haven't had anything to add myself since the beginning of the thread. But your projections and analysis have been closer than anything else I have read. Which I suppose is good for understanding but bad for being forced into some uncomfortable realizations. I will add, that besides DR's analysis we have several wildcards including grid failures, police walking away, natural disasters among other things that would really complicate all of this in a huge way should they occur. Yep. 2020 is a Doom Casserole and more and more ingredients seem to be getting added to the pot every day. +1 beau voir |
deplorable recollector (OP) User ID: 73110508 United Kingdom 06/16/2020 06:24 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | It looks more like Covid-19 has its origins in Europe because it's the only explanation for the low death rates there. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78951474 It was an unrecognized new flu variant of the Corona-family which was present long before 2020 in Europe. People gained herd-immunity and that was it in Europe. But then Covid-19 came to China, Wuhan, and it seems so that asian people are way more vulnerable for this virus than Europeans, therefore the many deads there. Now another Covid-19-mutation from Europe has reached China again, and the people there are still more vulnerable. Therefore many deaths must be expected again in Asia. USA is maybe between Europe and China, more deaths like in Europe but lesser than in China. So this is Covid-19: A flu which is really dangerous for asian people, medium dangerous for american people and a low danger for Europeans. WOW....I cannot find 1, not a single fact or accurate statement anywhere in your entire post! I couldn't say it better. It amazes me that some people are still living in the fantasy land that this virus is more dangerous to (insert race) then others. Oh, and they still think it's a flu... Last Edited by Recollector on 06/16/2020 06:26 PM |
Pillar of Poland User ID: 79037969 Poland 06/16/2020 06:36 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
beau voir User ID: 77975641 Canada 06/16/2020 06:44 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I agree 100% with r. c.d. but this is just the bottom wave pulling your feet backwards to drag you towards its back power towards the bottom. . . in the tsunami we are about to experience, this bottom wave adds us to the open sea keeps what really awaits us. . . is multiple times 100% to 1000? why because it is a ;global"; cleaning of. . for. the TOTAL";. tsunami. . the steps follow as a tide with ever higher waves (let's say this means our (usual) life system, a tsunami comes. (. be aware after such a change WE WILL WILL LIVE) there is almost nothing left . . . for a wave + strong,it draws the water in power,the. accumulation,less waves on the ground. at the usual place. . Quoting: beau voir we have a very large planetary tsunami that's already on its way. good luck and pray. What the fuck are you talking about? very simple my friend if you don't know the sea. . . the bottom waves have the possibility to destabilize your feet on the beach and drive you bye-bye a high wave with the rising wave,you surf it on the but when you succeed look at your landing and run the tsunami,(my daughter lived for the ATM=survivor (mountain) accumulates the tide,hold it off the people like a lot of beach but the wave accumulates off and BANG that's exactly what happens in this my now and= ANCESTRAL SO MY FRIEND YOU ARE ON THE DRY BEACH AND FIND THIS THE FUN , but THE TSUNAMI COMES TO LOOK FOR YOU. pray and be humble,xxx. beau voir |
Serenity Now User ID: 78311287 United States 06/16/2020 06:46 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
BossHogg User ID: 75215650 Canada 06/16/2020 06:47 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Back on May 14th, after a significant number of countries, states and territories eased up restrictions, started to reopen certain parts of the economy and some fully reopened and removed all restrictions, I posted what I thought it should be (and I hoped it was) the logical step in the fight against the virus. Quoting: deplorable recollector If anyone remembers, I believed that the first and possibly the only measure that should have been taken would have been the grounding of all travel, internationally and domestic, by February 5-6th. That would have ensured that the pandemic first wave impact outside China to be extremely low, it would have given us a HUGE period of time to prepare for Fall of 2020, when we should have had the FIRST wave, not the second. The "experts" and politicians considered that the economic losses would have been to big...failing to realize that the virus is not just another flu. We didn't do it, and that made the virus spread all over the world, and when the first wave hit, they realized that they have to contain it, no matter what. Hence, nation-wide lock-downs, which quickly became a world-wide lock-down. Traveling was grounded anyway, but on top of that, the REST of the economy was frozen, with very few parts of the economy running. Instead of being pro-active, the governments were reactive, and facing a virus with long incubation period and around 60% of the infected asymptomatic, being reactive never worked. The lock-downs were absolutely necessary, and whoever thinks that they weren't, will understand that they were, when second wave hits. The lock-downs, at that point, had to be 3 months long, to get to the point where would have been if the entire traveling would have been shut-down in early February. But the lock-downs lasted only 2 months, because the economic pressure was huge. Still, the losses from 1 more month of lock-downs will be smaller then what is coming, just like the losses from shutting-down the traveling in early February would have been compared to the losses of the lock-downs we experienced. Overall, the infection rate in the world population is STILL around 5%, and my calculations that we need another 10% by October, were based on a simple model of a 3 wave pandemic, that would have its 4th wave (in the Fall of 2021) starting with a population close to 50% immunity / resistance to the virus, with many countries close to 70%. The entire goal in fighting THIS pandemic is not to avoid the population of being infected (severe lock-downs) or to let the population wide-open to the virus, and play the herd immunity card. The entire goal is to BUY TIME to develop vaccines and / or treatments, and buying time is not going to be possible without sacrifices. The sad part is that the initial sacrifice (traveling), that would have bought us NINE MONTHS before being hit by the first wave, was not taken. The next sacrifice was traveling + tourism + almost the entire economy being shut down for 3 months. They didn't took it for 3 months, they did it for 2. Now, as a society, we are facing a virus that is DEEPLY entrenched in the population, and on the brink of mutating, a virus that is again free to move (too early reopening, soon open borders and traveling) and I am afraid that we are reaching a point where the second wave is starting WAY BEFORE it should have. I still hope that the increase in cases and hospitalizations that we currently see in a number of areas after reopening, to be just a temporary spike of the first wave, and by the end of this month, we will see if this is the case, or we are at the start of the second wave. Like before, the numbers from China are to be totally ignored, only their actions should be taken into consideration. What we see now in China is a deja-vu from early January : lock-downs of communities, districts, some smaller cities. If China is going to start locking-down entire cities, and then entire provinces, in the following 2 weeks, we can safely say that the second wave is starting in China. The Western world is going to have to make a very tough choice. We already lost the opportunity to just lose traveling, we already lost the opportunity to extend the lock-downs one more month. Both were sacrifices that we SHOULD HAVE MADE, in order to avoid bigger ones later. I recently argued against nation-wide lock-downs, and in favor of localized quarantines and closures, looking at the need of keeping whatever is left of the jobs and stop losing more and the need to get some herd immunity, in preparation for the second wave in October. I am going to stick to this, because at this point, there is no other option...until, and God help us we won't have to, the need for another severe lock-down is going to come naturally, because of second wave being too big to handle. Basically, avoiding or delaying nation-wide lock-downs until we have to do it (but hopefully we won't have to), and stick to contain any outbreaks that will appear, and hope it is going to be enough to avoid massive loads in the hospitals AND to ensure a constant rate of infection, before October. When looking at the month that passed since my post on May 14th, I am cautiously optimistic. It seems that we are, at least until now, on a path that is going to prevent a second wave in the Summer, and even if it won't, it will keep it under dangerous levels, at least in most areas. Some areas will be hit hard, it's just how pandemics "work". I also recently said that the effects of reopening will be felt 4 to 6 weeks later, and for most of the world, this is between mid-June (now) and end of June, and this is again a critical period in evaluating where we are : a secondary spike of the first wave or the start of the second wave. The numbers, if we are to believe them, are atm, pointing to BOTH a secondary spike of the first wave and the start of the second wave. This is why I kept saying that I am going to patiently wait for mid to end of June, because I know that we reopened too early, too many people simply disregard the danger and without at least 2 weeks of data, I cannot say if we are at the start of the second wave. There were 2 critical time periods in the past, when my model (seems so long ago) was put to test and passed it. The first was the period from end of January to early February, when I said that if traveling is not shut-down entirely, we are going to be hit, hard, by the virus, because my model numbers said so. And we did got hit hard. The second was the implementations of lock-downs, and I said that they were too late to implement, and it won't change the outcome, again, based on my model numbers. And the model was again true. Based on my model, the second wave already started, in many areas. However, due to how hard it is to project numbers at this point (considering the vast differences between countries, type of reopening, timing of reopening, local authorities reactions, some afraid to take measures, some overreacting, general population reaction, etc. etc.), I need by the end of this month before I can say, for sure if the second wave started (this will be quite visible for anyone, regardless of my model) and to predict how the pandemic will evolve (this is going to be based on my model). The next 2 weeks are needed not only to see how the infections will evolve, but also the impact of deaths and hospitalizations, because they are still lagging behind, even if we are a month into reopening. What I want everyone to understand, with 100% clarity, is what I have been saying since the very beginning, and this still haven't changed : we will experience more waves (2nd and 3rd are the ones that matter, the ones after will be just a small nuisance) and the economy is going to be devastated, ending up between a deep depression and a massive collapse. The key period is going to be October 2020 to May 2021, regardless if the second wave started already or it will start in October. Prepare for the worst to come, because what we experience now, is nothing compared to what is to come this fall. Back on May 14th, after a significant number of countries, states and territories eased up restrictions, started to reopen certain parts of the economy and some fully reopened and removed all restrictions, I posted what I thought it should be (and I hoped it was) the logical step in the fight against the virus. Quoting: deplorable recollector If anyone remembers, I believed that the first and possibly the only measure that should have been taken would have been the grounding of all travel, internationally and domestic, by February 5-6th. That would have ensured that the pandemic first wave impact outside China to be extremely low, it would have given us a HUGE period of time to prepare for Fall of 2020, when we should have had the FIRST wave, not the second. The "experts" and politicians considered that the economic losses would have been to big...failing to realize that the virus is not just another flu. We didn't do it, and that made the virus spread all over the world, and when the first wave hit, they realized that they have to contain it, no matter what. Hence, nation-wide lock-downs, which quickly became a world-wide lock-down. Traveling was grounded anyway, but on top of that, the REST of the economy was frozen, with very few parts of the economy running. Instead of being pro-active, the governments were reactive, and facing a virus with long incubation period and around 60% of the infected asymptomatic, being reactive never worked. The lock-downs were absolutely necessary, and whoever thinks that they weren't, will understand that they were, when second wave hits. The lock-downs, at that point, had to be 3 months long, to get to the point where would have been if the entire traveling would have been shut-down in early February. But the lock-downs lasted only 2 months, because the economic pressure was huge. Still, the losses from 1 more month of lock-downs will be smaller then what is coming, just like the losses from shutting-down the traveling in early February would have been compared to the losses of the lock-downs we experienced. Overall, the infection rate in the world population is STILL around 5%, and my calculations that we need another 10% by October, were based on a simple model of a 3 wave pandemic, that would have its 4th wave (in the Fall of 2021) starting with a population close to 50% immunity / resistance to the virus, with many countries close to 70%. The entire goal in fighting THIS pandemic is not to avoid the population of being infected (severe lock-downs) or to let the population wide-open to the virus, and play the herd immunity card. The entire goal is to BUY TIME to develop vaccines and / or treatments, and buying time is not going to be possible without sacrifices. The sad part is that the initial sacrifice (traveling), that would have bought us NINE MONTHS before being hit by the first wave, was not taken. The next sacrifice was traveling + tourism + almost the entire economy being shut down for 3 months. They didn't took it for 3 months, they did it for 2. Now, as a society, we are facing a virus that is DEEPLY entrenched in the population, and on the brink of mutating, a virus that is again free to move (too early reopening, soon open borders and traveling) and I am afraid that we are reaching a point where the second wave is starting WAY BEFORE it should have. I still hope that the increase in cases and hospitalizations that we currently see in a number of areas after reopening, to be just a temporary spike of the first wave, and by the end of this month, we will see if this is the case, or we are at the start of the second wave. Like before, the numbers from China are to be totally ignored, only their actions should be taken into consideration. What we see now in China is a deja-vu from early January : lock-downs of communities, districts, some smaller cities. If China is going to start locking-down entire cities, and then entire provinces, in the following 2 weeks, we can safely say that the second wave is starting in China. The Western world is going to have to make a very tough choice. We already lost the opportunity to just lose traveling, we already lost the opportunity to extend the lock-downs one more month. Both were sacrifices that we SHOULD HAVE MADE, in order to avoid bigger ones later. I recently argued against nation-wide lock-downs, and in favor of localized quarantines and closures, looking at the need of keeping whatever is left of the jobs and stop losing more and the need to get some herd immunity, in preparation for the second wave in October. I am going to stick to this, because at this point, there is no other option...until, and God help us we won't have to, the need for another severe lock-down is going to come naturally, because of second wave being too big to handle. Basically, avoiding or delaying nation-wide lock-downs until we have to do it (but hopefully we won't have to), and stick to contain any outbreaks that will appear, and hope it is going to be enough to avoid massive loads in the hospitals AND to ensure a constant rate of infection, before October. When looking at the month that passed since my post on May 14th, I am cautiously optimistic. It seems that we are, at least until now, on a path that is going to prevent a second wave in the Summer, and even if it won't, it will keep it under dangerous levels, at least in most areas. Some areas will be hit hard, it's just how pandemics "work". I also recently said that the effects of reopening will be felt 4 to 6 weeks later, and for most of the world, this is between mid-June (now) and end of June, and this is again a critical period in evaluating where we are : a secondary spike of the first wave or the start of the second wave. The numbers, if we are to believe them, are atm, pointing to BOTH a secondary spike of the first wave and the start of the second wave. This is why I kept saying that I am going to patiently wait for mid to end of June, because I know that we reopened too early, too many people simply disregard the danger and without at least 2 weeks of data, I cannot say if we are at the start of the second wave. There were 2 critical time periods in the past, when my model (seems so long ago) was put to test and passed it. The first was the period from end of January to early February, when I said that if traveling is not shut-down entirely, we are going to be hit, hard, by the virus, because my model numbers said so. And we did got hit hard. The second was the implementations of lock-downs, and I said that they were too late to implement, and it won't change the outcome, again, based on my model numbers. And the model was again true. Based on my model, the second wave already started, in many areas. However, due to how hard it is to project numbers at this point (considering the vast differences between countries, type of reopening, timing of reopening, local authorities reactions, some afraid to take measures, some overreacting, general population reaction, etc. etc.), I need by the end of this month before I can say, for sure if the second wave started (this will be quite visible for anyone, regardless of my model) and to predict how the pandemic will evolve (this is going to be based on my model). The next 2 weeks are needed not only to see how the infections will evolve, but also the impact of deaths and hospitalizations, because they are still lagging behind, even if we are a month into reopening. What I want everyone to understand, with 100% clarity, is what I have been saying since the very beginning, and this still haven't changed : we will experience more waves (2nd and 3rd are the ones that matter, the ones after will be just a small nuisance) and the economy is going to be devastated, ending up between a deep depression and a massive collapse. The key period is going to be October 2020 to May 2021, regardless if the second wave started already or it will start in October. Prepare for the worst to come, because what we experience now, is nothing compared to what is to come this fall. For taking time to analyze and type all this with the spell check. Good work OP appreciate the updates. Last Edited by BossHogg on 06/16/2020 06:49 PM |
beau voir User ID: 77975641 Canada 06/16/2020 06:54 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I agree 100% with r. c.d. but this is just the bottom wave pulling your feet backwards to drag you towards its back power towards the bottom. . . in the tsunami we are about to experience, this bottom wave adds us to the open sea keeps what really awaits us. . . is multiple times 100% to 1000? why because it is a ;global"; cleaning of. . for. the TOTAL";. tsunami. . the steps follow as a tide with ever higher waves (let's say this means our (usual) life system, a tsunami comes. (. be aware after such a change WE WILL WILL LIVE) there is almost nothing left . . . for a wave + strong,it draws the water in power,the. accumulation,less waves on the ground. at the usual place. . Quoting: beau voir we have a very large planetary tsunami that's already on its way. good luck and pray. What the fuck are you talking about? very simple my friend if you don't know the sea. . . the bottom waves have the possibility to destabilize your feet on the beach and drive you bye-bye a high wave with the rising wave,you surf it on the but when you succeed look at your landing and run the tsunami,(my daughter lived for the ATM=survivor (mountain) accumulates the tide,hold it off the people like a lot of beach but the wave accumulates off and BANG that's exactly what happens in this my now and= ANCESTRAL SO MY FRIEND YOU ARE ON THE DRY BEACH AND FIND THIS THE FUN , but THE TSUNAMI COMES TO LOOK FOR YOU. pray and be humble,xxx. excuse-me,my my 2 translators,,,=n.have no desire my VRAiS AND REAL WORDS so j.accepts because, by writing this..... isn't that what we all have to do at the moment? hum, great lesson my translator m.enteaches, BANG! beau voir |
Serenity Now User ID: 78311287 United States 06/16/2020 07:06 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
ThePassenger User ID: 49744517 France 06/16/2020 07:49 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | OP there is new outbreak of Covid-19 (mutated) in Beijing.Beijing is under lockdown .I say it's game over man Quoting: Pillar of Poland For sure. That s a script, nothing more. A bad movie with bad actors. Civil war in US' religious war in Europe (terrorist atacks coming back very soon), total colapse of the economy, destruction of the police all over the world and many more crazy events to come. Because they need CHAOS. Why? RFID, One leader and one new religion, Total control. It s a sloooow doom, it will take, good luck everybody A.I.B.I.A. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 41139342 United States 06/16/2020 07:51 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | OP there is new outbreak of Covid-19 (mutated) in Beijing.Beijing is under lockdown .I say it's game over man Quoting: Pillar of Poland For sure. That s a script, nothing more. A bad movie with bad actors. Civil war in US' religious war in Europe (terrorist atacks coming back very soon), total colapse of the economy, destruction of the police all over the world and many more crazy events to come. Because they need CHAOS. Why? RFID, One leader and one new religion, Total control. It s a sloooow doom, it will take, good luck everybody Did you skip your meds lately? |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 79039933 United States 06/16/2020 08:14 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Hi DP, Thanks for all of your hard work. Once again, it does seem like you are on the right path with your analysis and predictions. I do have a question--in your update today, you said you were cautiously optimistic, but also that we are on a trajectory of exploding cases and second wave sooner than later. Can you clarify what you mean? I'm a little confused by your conflicting remarks. Is my understanding correct--that a second wave is pretty much inevitable, will be worse than the first, but you are not sure if it's hitting now/soon or later in the fall? Also--here in Texas, Governor Abbott is downplaying the fact that we are having record amount of cases and hospitalizations. He is claiming that we have plenty of open beds available. Do you believe he is just trying to save face/keep everyone calm, or do you agree with him--that Texas isn't in any danger of crisis? Thanks again. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 79039933 United States 06/16/2020 08:15 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Still pushing this crap wagon of a thread OP? Quoting: op is loser 63483583 You should be ashamed! Fearmonger! And your stupid theories are never right! Maybe you should quit now, before embarrassing yourself further! Your a total joke as it is, OP! Give it a rest! How can you say that? It does appear that there is a second wave imminently approaching. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 76521408 United States 06/16/2020 10:25 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Still pushing this crap wagon of a thread OP? Quoting: op is loser 63483583 You should be ashamed! Fearmonger! And your stupid theories are never right! Maybe you should quit now, before embarrassing yourself further! Your a total joke as it is, OP! Give it a rest! How can you say that? It does appear that there is a second wave imminently approaching. You can't be serious! Thread: BREAKING parliament in Brazil breaks into COVID HOSPITAL!!!!! ITS EMPTY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!$!!!!!!!!&!!!! Time to end this joke. It was never funny anyways! A “hospital” scamming for money doesn’t make this virus any less real. There will always be scammers trying to make a buck at someone else’s expense. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 75510486 United States 06/16/2020 11:08 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | A couple things: Quoting: NawtyBits I've seen a couple articles showing that the virus has mutated to be more virulent. [link to www.theguardian.com (secure)] Yang Zhanqiu, a deputy director at the pathogen biology department at Wuhan University, told state media he believed the new outbreak involved a more contagious strain of the virus than the one that hit Wuhan at the beginning of the pandemic. There was another one or 2 articles but I don't have time to find the links. Secondly, there is no reason to believe we can achieve herd immunity or a viable vax. Up to 40% of people who were PCR positive never developed antibodies. SARS-1 antibodies are not durable, declining and disappearing after about 2 years. [link to www.statnews.com (secure)] Thirdly, it appears SARS-2 can cloak itself, creating some very ungood problems for a vax. [link to twitter.com (secure)] May 26 10) BOTTOMLINE: By destroying/ suppressing MHC molecules used by T-cells to identify which cells are foreign-invaded (virus infected), #SARSCoV2 effectively cloaks itself inside cells it infects, thereby hiding from T-cells & allowing time to reproduce! This cloak is very bad. I'm just not convinced herd immunity or a vax is even possible. Look at the common cold. Just my very humble opinion. Unfortunately, I 100% feel the same. But also- The common cold isn’t caused by one virus. It’s not even just caused by corona viruses. So it’s not quite apples to apples |