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WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

 
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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07/09/2020 10:39 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
OP was right in many ways, but he disregards a very important fact: Although the number of cases is increasing, the number of deaths is decreasing, a lot. Take the case of the United States. Yesterday was a record of cases, with 61,848 cases, but the number of deaths was 890. On April 21, there were only 26,194 cases, less than half of yesterday, but 2,749 deaths, that is 3 times less deaths with the double of cases. It has been the same in the rest of the countries. The ICU admission rate has fallen, despite the high number of cases. There is no way for hospitals and ICU beds to be overloaded, statistically this has already proved impossible, if the mortality rate and hospitalizations obeyed the same proportion of infections, then yes, we would be fucked up, but that's not what is happening. My 62-year-old brother, who lives with me, has the disease, it is very serious, the fever is high for days in a row and the person does not eat well, does not sleep well, tiredness is strenuous and, yes, weak people die. My brother is in the last days of symptoms and we hope that he will recover 100%, he does not have shortness of breath at any time. I believe that this disease will become endemic and there will still be many deaths, but, contrary to what OP predicts, the situation is much better, medicine has learned to deal with the disease by treating patients at home, and is starting to use the right drugs. The thing is far from over, but it has been a while since it has posed such a serious threat to the human species as it did in the beginning.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78094494




Huge wall of text and a waste of time for you...and all because, like many others, you cannot read, or don't bother to.


I haven't disregarded anything, and you would knew that...if you would waste time on reading, before writing.


While I do not focus on deaths, I do take them into consideration, for my model. I have already give the example of what means a strain that is 3 times more contagious and 3 times less deadly...but you must have skipped it, right?


I also disregard completely what happens in ONE DAY or ONE WEEK. I am only looking at 2-3 weeks periods of time, from a statistical pov, among other info that is strictly medical, but helps projecting numbers.


I also disregard any info that is subjective, like your brother's case.

I can counter with the father of my fried, that was diagnosed with the virus about a month ago. He got well, released from the hospital after 10 days, but guess what?

Now, he suffers from symptoms that are EYE related, while he never had any eye issues. The vision of one of its eyes is blurry, the other have double vision.


I haven't said that until now, only to show you that subjective stories have no relevance, and because you came up with one first.


I have also said that the new strain will be the dominant one by the end of July, in the Americas, both North and South. And you will see the deaths starting to rise this month, slowly, and accelerating in August and September.


The situation NOW is again, irrelevant. I don't care that we SEEM to be in a better shape now, because it's just a window before things get much worse.


My model already predicted that for about 2 months after reopening, which was in mid-May for most of the world, the situation would be better, but not because treatments...because there AREN'T any treatments., but because the lock-down effects will last aprox. 8 weeks.

These 8 weeks are about to end, by mid-July.


HQ + Az + Zinc is NOT A TREATMENT. Remdesivir is NOT A TREATMENT. HIV medication is NOT A TREATMENT.


What the above medications are doing is saving the LIVES of those in CRITICAL CONDITION.

The "kicker" is that with hospitals at full capacity...those in critical condition WILL DIE, because they cannot be treated at home. They HAVE TO BE ventilated, because the treatment takes 10+ days to save their lives.


I understand the need of good news, but good news are good ONLY if they are long term. Otherwise, they are just an illusion, and anyone who is either pessimistic or optimistic, is wrong.


The key is to be realistic, and anyone who is realistic, doesn't give any weight to what happens in one day or to what happens with some relative they know.


Hundreds of hospitals are already at 100% capacity. Not one, not 10, but HUNDREDS. And this is what we KNOW. There are probably thousands of hospitals, worldwide, at 100% capacity, both beds and ICU beds.


What I have said that WILL HAPPEN if there are no strict lock-downs, is ALREADY HAPPENING.



I am not the bringer of good news, or bad news. I only bring up scenarios that are highly likely to happen, and sadly, they are happening.


If these scenarios are bad, it's not my fault.



I am sorry you do not understand a SIMPLE and LOGICAL FACT : the more contagious this virus is (and the new strain is at least 3 times more contagious), and less deadly, the more DEATHS will be, because not only the critical Covid-19 patients will die because lack of ICU bed, but EVERYONE ELSE that needs ICU will also die.

Last Edited by Recollector on 07/09/2020 10:43 AM
UKguy
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07/09/2020 10:46 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
OP was right in many ways, but he disregards a very important fact: Although the number of cases is increasing, the number of deaths is decreasing, a lot. Take the case of the United States. Yesterday was a record of cases, with 61,848 cases, but the number of deaths was 890. On April 21, there were only 26,194 cases, less than half of yesterday, but 2,749 deaths, that is 3 times less deaths with the double of cases. It has been the same in the rest of the countries. The ICU admission rate has fallen, despite the high number of cases. There is no way for hospitals and ICU beds to be overloaded, statistically this has already proved impossible, if the mortality rate and hospitalizations obeyed the same proportion of infections, then yes, we would be fucked up, but that's not what is happening. My 62-year-old brother, who lives with me, has the disease, it is very serious, the fever is high for days in a row and the person does not eat well, does not sleep well, tiredness is strenuous and, yes, weak people die. My brother is in the last days of symptoms and we hope that he will recover 100%, he does not have shortness of breath at any time. I believe that this disease will become endemic and there will still be many deaths, but, contrary to what OP predicts, the situation is much better, medicine has learned to deal with the disease by treating patients at home, and is starting to use the right drugs. The thing is far from over, but it has been a while since it has posed such a serious threat to the human species as it did in the beginning.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78094494




Huge wall of text and a waste of time for you...and all because, like many others, you cannot read, or don't bother to.


I haven't disregarded anything, and you would knew that...if you would waste time on reading, before writing.


While I do not focus on deaths, I do take them into consideration, for my model. I have already give the example of what means a strain that is 3 times more contagious and 3 times less deadly...but you must have skipped it, right?


I also disregard completely what happens in ONE DAY or ONE WEEK. I am only looking at 2-3 weeks periods of time, from a statistical pov, among other info that is strictly medical, but helps projecting numbers.


I also disregard any info that is subjective, like your brother's case.

I can counter with the father of my fried, that was diagnosed with the virus about a month ago. He got well, released from the hospital after 10 days, but guess what?

Now, he suffers from symptoms that are EYE related, while he never had any eye issues. The vision of one of its eyes is blurry, the other have double vision.


I haven't said that until now, only to show you that subjective stories have no relevance, and because you came up with one first.


I have also said that the new strain will be the dominant one by the end of July, in the Americas, both North and South. And you will see the deaths starting to rise this month, slowly, and accelerating in August and September.


The situation NOW is again, irrelevant. I don't care that we SEEM to be in a better shape now, because it's just a window before things get much worse.


My model already predicted that for about 2 months after reopening, which was in mid-May for most of the world, the situation would be better, but not because treatments...because there AREN'T any treatments., but because the lock-down effects will last aprox. 8 weeks.

These 8 weeks are about to end, by mid-July.


HQ + Az + Zinc is NOT A TREATMENT. Remdesivir is NOT A TREATMENT. HIV medication is NOT A TREATMENT.


What the above medications are doing is saving the LIVES of those in CRITICAL CONDITION.

The "kicker" is that with hospitals at full capacity...those in critical condition WILL DIE, because they cannot be treated at home. They HAVE TO BE ventilated, because the treatment takes 10+ days to save their lives.


I understand the need of good news, but good news are good ONLY if they are long term. Otherwise, they are just an illusion, and anyone who is either pessimistic or optimistic, is wrong.


The key is to be realistic, and anyone who is realistic, doesn't give any weight to what happens in one day or to what happens with some relative they know.


Hundreds of hospitals are already at 100% capacity. Not one, not 10, but HUNDREDS. And this is what we KNOW. There are probably thousands of hospitals, worldwide, at 100% capacity, both beds and ICU beds.


What I have said that WILL HAPPEN if there are no strict lock-downs, is ALREADY HAPPENING.



I am not the bringer of good news, or bad news. I only bring up scenarios that are highly likely to happen, and sadly, they are happening.


If these scenarios are bad, it's not my fault.



I am sorry you do not understand a SIMPLE and LOGICAL FACT : the more contagious this virus is (and the new strain is at least 3 times more contagious), and less deadly, the more DEATHS will be, because not only the critical Covid-19 patients will die because lack of ICU bed, but EVERYONE ELSE that needs ICU will also die.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector



i wish people would read all of your content ! Thanks for taking the time to dispel opinions like the one above DR, some of us listen and read so please keep doing what your doing

seal
ParamedicUK

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07/09/2020 02:13 PM

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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Some of us have been here since the beginning and know how it feels for our friends and loved ones to think we were mad. But we were proven right and will be again!

It is going to be a very tough Winter / let us prep !!
Herd immunity and vaccine free is the only way……

Peace not War.
Serenity Now

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07/09/2020 07:59 PM

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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Some of us have been here since the beginning and know how it feels for our friends and loved ones to think we were mad. But we were proven right and will be again!

It is going to be a very tough Winter / let us prep !!
 Quoting: ParamedicUK



Yes, stay focused and prepare while we have time.
First tell the truth, then give your opinion....
Anonymous Coward
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07/10/2020 03:19 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
bump
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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United Kingdom
07/10/2020 03:38 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
A while ago, someone was brazenly asking me how do I explain Georgia.


I said that Atlanta, which is the capital and main city of the state, and an international travel hub, had an extra 3 weeks of lock-down, and in due time, Georgia will see their second wave.



Let's see how Georgia fared since June 15th, which was about 5 weeks after Atlanta reopened, and about 8 weeks after the state ( bar Atlanta ), reopened.


Total cases in Georgia, from March 12th to June 14th:

57,681, a median daily value of 626 cases.


Total cases in Georgia from June 15th to July 10th (today):


53,530, a median daily value of 1,911 cases.



The increase in cases is SIX FOLD (3 times more cases / day in a period of time 3 times smaller).



I am sorry for the guy that called me a fraud, because 1 month ago he believed that Georgia is fine, the U.S. is fine, and the virus is pretty much over.


The hospitalizations are also up, not only the cases.



But the spike in cases is worrisome, for Georgia. Hospitalizations are lagging about 3-5 days.


I am afraid that Georgia is becoming one of the second wave epicenters in the U.S., along those in TX, FL, Cali, AZ.


My model predicted at least 12 epicenters in the U.S., by the end of July.


I think Texas have 2 epicenters (high chance for one more), Florida 2, Arizona 2 and Cali 2.
Georgia will add one more, Atlanta, obviously.


9 in total, for the moment... and still 20 days left until end of the month.



Expecting 100k cases / day for the U.S. by the end of July, as I said yesterday.

What will be worse is that there won't be any lock-downs before mid-August.



People will have to SEE how bad it is, before they will grudgingly submit to a new lock-down, which is 100% coming in August, in many parts of the U.S., if not a nation-wide lock-down.

Last Edited by Recollector on 07/10/2020 03:55 PM
Red Hot Chilean Pepe

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07/10/2020 04:06 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Hello DR, thanks for that comment. You are so on point. People will have to see it before understanding how dire is the situation.
All great truths begin as Blasphemies.
G.B.S.

GLP is like a diamond mine of information, in the sense that you have to shovel mountains of crap to find the diamonds, but it's still worth the pain.
Storm2come
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07/10/2020 04:16 PM

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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Thanks DR for all that you do, I have been following your advise since the start and have been ahead of most everyone around me in prepping. The next wave of lockdowns will certainly kill any hopes of saving the economy, many people that I know are barely holding on hoping for something to save them, this is going to be a bad fall and winter for most.
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ParamedicUK

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07/10/2020 04:25 PM

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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Oh dear. But it has to happen!
Herd immunity and vaccine free is the only way……

Peace not War.
Guythu

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United States
07/10/2020 05:36 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
A while ago, someone was brazenly asking me how do I explain Georgia.


I said that Atlanta, which is the capital and main city of the state, and an international travel hub, had an extra 3 weeks of lock-down, and in due time, Georgia will see their second wave.



Let's see how Georgia fared since June 15th, which was about 5 weeks after Atlanta reopened, and about 8 weeks after the state ( bar Atlanta ), reopened.


Total cases in Georgia, from March 12th to June 14th:

57,681, a median daily value of 626 cases.


Total cases in Georgia from June 15th to July 10th (today):


53,530, a median daily value of 1,911 cases.



The increase in cases is SIX FOLD (3 times more cases / day in a period of time 3 times smaller).



I am sorry for the guy that called me a fraud, because 1 month ago he believed that Georgia is fine, the U.S. is fine, and the virus is pretty much over.


The hospitalizations are also up, not only the cases.



But the spike in cases is worrisome, for Georgia. Hospitalizations are lagging about 3-5 days.


I am afraid that Georgia is becoming one of the second wave epicenters in the U.S., along those in TX, FL, Cali, AZ.


My model predicted at least 12 epicenters in the U.S., by the end of July.


I think Texas have 2 epicenters (high chance for one more), Florida 2, Arizona 2 and Cali 2.
Georgia will add one more, Atlanta, obviously.


9 in total, for the moment... and still 20 days left until end of the month.



Expecting 100k cases / day for the U.S. by the end of July, as I said yesterday.

What will be worse is that there won't be any lock-downs before mid-August.



People will have to SEE how bad it is, before they will grudgingly submit to a new lock-down, which is 100% coming in August, in many parts of the U.S., if not a nation-wide lock-down.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


DR-
Is there a “general rule of thumb for lagging hospitalizations?
I’m in Ohio and we had a new record of confirmed infected today.
Would it be approximately 3-5 days too?
Anonymous Coward
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07/11/2020 12:28 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Bump
Bastetcat

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07/11/2020 12:34 AM

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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
A while ago, someone was brazenly asking me how do I explain Georgia.


I said that Atlanta, which is the capital and main city of the state, and an international travel hub, had an extra 3 weeks of lock-down, and in due time, Georgia will see their second wave.



Let's see how Georgia fared since June 15th, which was about 5 weeks after Atlanta reopened, and about 8 weeks after the state ( bar Atlanta ), reopened.


Total cases in Georgia, from March 12th to June 14th:

57,681, a median daily value of 626 cases.


Total cases in Georgia from June 15th to July 10th (today):


53,530, a median daily value of 1,911 cases.



The increase in cases is SIX FOLD (3 times more cases / day in a period of time 3 times smaller).



I am sorry for the guy that called me a fraud, because 1 month ago he believed that Georgia is fine, the U.S. is fine, and the virus is pretty much over.


The hospitalizations are also up, not only the cases.



But the spike in cases is worrisome, for Georgia. Hospitalizations are lagging about 3-5 days.


I am afraid that Georgia is becoming one of the second wave epicenters in the U.S., along those in TX, FL, Cali, AZ.


My model predicted at least 12 epicenters in the U.S., by the end of July.


I think Texas have 2 epicenters (high chance for one more), Florida 2, Arizona 2 and Cali 2.
Georgia will add one more, Atlanta, obviously.


9 in total, for the moment... and still 20 days left until end of the month.



Expecting 100k cases / day for the U.S. by the end of July, as I said yesterday.

What will be worse is that there won't be any lock-downs before mid-August.



People will have to SEE how bad it is, before they will grudgingly submit to a new lock-down, which is 100% coming in August, in many parts of the U.S., if not a nation-wide lock-down.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


I think Texas have 2 epicenters (high chance for one more), Florida 2, Arizona 2 and Cali 2.
Georgia will add one more, Atlanta, obviously.

Pasting in case holding doesn’t work..
Miami-Dade is 1, or are you putting all of south Florida as 1? What’s the second epicenter? I’m asking about all the states affected too...thanks
Life finds a way.
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07/11/2020 06:58 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
First post on this thread, so have to salute DR and the rest of you intrepid virus monitors. So grateful for the heads up, and lucky to have caught this thread on Day One. Florida FINALLY capitulated and posted its hospitalization stats this week. The Tampa Bay region is expected to get epicenter status soon.

[link to bi.ahca.myflorida.com (secure)]
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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07/11/2020 07:21 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
About lagging in hospitalizations.


There is no official confirmed that there is a new strain in the U.S.

However, the numbers show some changes, that cannot be explained, unless 2 strains are circulating, the European one (which affected NY), and the new one, which is starting to gain the upper hand in TX, FL, AZ, GA, while in Cali, it's just now starting to affect the numbers.


If the European strain would be circulating in the U.S. southern states, the hospitalizations would be less, but the ICU hospitalizations would be much greater, and the deaths as well.


What the numbers show in the U.S., is a dramatic increase in cases, higher hospitalization rate, lower ICU hospitalization rate and lower death count, compared to NY, which was hit by the European strain.


As I said, I believe that the new strain to be more contagious, and less deadly, which means higher hospitalization rate, and lower ICU and death rate.


And this is what is happening in TX, FL, AZ, GA, and starts to happen in Cali as well.


The hospitals are getting to 100% ICU capacity because the number of cases is huge, even if the ICU cases have a lower rate, compared to the European strain, making the total ICU numbers to be much higher, even if proportionally speaking, they are less.



I also believe that the new strain presents with less asymptomatic rate, but more pre-symptomatic, that will start presenting symptoms usually 3 to 5 days after they are tested and categorized as asymptomatic.


By the end of July, if no artificial barriers are in place (lock-downs), I expect that the new strain to become dominant in the U.S., which will lead to a massive hospitalization rate, and by total numbers (not per capita) to fill up hundreds of ICUs.

Last Edited by Recollector on 07/11/2020 07:43 AM
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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07/11/2020 07:42 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
About Florida epicenters.


The reason I consider Florida to have 2 epicenters, is based on the number of cases in 3 counties, all of them in same area : Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach.

All the above 3 counties are heavily interconnected, and can be considered as being one area, part of Miami greater metro area.


However, I considered that there is enough population and geographical differences between Miami-Dade county and Broward & Palm Beach counties, to split them in 2 pandemic epicenters.


In numbers, Miami-Dade, with almost 2.8 million people, is clocking over 58k total cases.

Broward & Palm Beach, with almost 3.3 million people, are clocking almost 46k total cases.


The case can be made that FL have 1 epicenter (all 3 above counties) or 3 epicenters (each of the above counties).


It doesn't really matter, if it's 1 or 2 or 3 epicenters. Florida is on it's way to add one more, or possibly 2 more epicenters, by the end of the month, one of them being Tampa (Hillsborough County).
Anonymous Coward
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07/11/2020 07:49 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Hey o.p , love the thread , just wondering what your thoughts are on Australia , one state " Victoria " has had a large out break , over 1000 in the last week I think , how long do you think it would take to spread into other states , we do have lock downs at our borders but I think it's gonna get through , any thoughts would be appreciated .
Thanks
Joe Preps

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07/11/2020 07:52 AM

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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
About Florida epicenters.


The reason I consider Florida to have 2 epicenters, is based on the number of cases in 3 counties, all of them in same area : Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach.

All the above 3 counties are heavily interconnected, and can be considered as being one area, part of Miami greater metro area.


However, I considered that there is enough population and geographical differences between Miami-Dade county and Broward & Palm Beach counties, to split them in 2 pandemic epicenters.


In numbers, Miami-Dade, with almost 2.8 million people, is clocking over 58k total cases.

Broward & Palm Beach, with almost 3.3 million people, are clocking almost 46k total cases.


The case can be made that FL have 1 epicenter (all 3 above counties) or 3 epicenters (each of the above counties).


It doesn't really matter, if it's 1 or 2 or 3 epicenters. Florida is on it's way to add one more, or possibly 2 more epicenters, by the end of the month, one of them being Tampa (Hillsborough County).
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


DR...much appreciation as always. I am in Miami, granted in the southern suburbs, but it is overly alarming here. Luckily, we live in a low crowd area, large gated home on a dead end street. I was fortunate enough to see the writing on the wall in late January, and got full p100 3M gas masks with face shields for my entire family and do not ever go into an indoor place for shopping without one. At first people that saw me in it had a good laugh...now they ALL are jealous of my gear. Everyone wears masks, but half of them have their noses out or pull them down for this or that constantly. I can tell you that friends, family and co workers (remote) in town are really concerned about the current state of our local situation and lack of government leadership on the issue (all of them bowing to economic pressure and NOT doing the right things). At this time, we are stocked up and always need a few replacement items, but the stores in my area are all well stocked at this time....I think a few months from now that will not be the case.

Last Edited by Joe Preps on 07/11/2020 07:55 AM
:batsoup:
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07/11/2020 11:57 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
About Florida epicenters.


The reason I consider Florida to have 2 epicenters, is based on the number of cases in 3 counties, all of them in same area : Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach.

All the above 3 counties are heavily interconnected, and can be considered as being one area, part of Miami greater metro area.


However, I considered that there is enough population and geographical differences between Miami-Dade county and Broward & Palm Beach counties, to split them in 2 pandemic epicenters.


In numbers, Miami-Dade, with almost 2.8 million people, is clocking over 58k total cases.

Broward & Palm Beach, with almost 3.3 million people, are clocking almost 46k total cases.


The case can be made that FL have 1 epicenter (all 3 above counties) or 3 epicenters (each of the above counties).


It doesn't really matter, if it's 1 or 2 or 3 epicenters. Florida is on it's way to add one more, or possibly 2 more epicenters, by the end of the month, one of them being Tampa (Hillsborough County).
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


DR...much appreciation as always. I am in Miami, granted in the southern suburbs, but it is overly alarming here. Luckily, we live in a low crowd area, large gated home on a dead end street. I was fortunate enough to see the writing on the wall in late January, and got full p100 3M gas masks with face shields for my entire family and do not ever go into an indoor place for shopping without one. At first people that saw me in it had a good laugh...now they ALL are jealous of my gear. Everyone wears masks, but half of them have their noses out or pull them down for this or that constantly. I can tell you that friends, family and co workers (remote) in town are really concerned about the current state of our local situation and lack of government leadership on the issue (all of them bowing to economic pressure and NOT doing the right things). At this time, we are stocked up and always need a few replacement items, but the stores in my area are all well stocked at this time....I think a few months from now that will not be the case.
 Quoting: Joe Preps


Bump
Red Hot Chilean Pepe

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Chile
07/11/2020 12:50 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
I agree that with the degree of connectivity existing in most Affected parts in the US the issue of identifying specific hotspots is more of a pointless semantic argument.

Whenever an area gets saturated, many people can and will move to another shuffling the contagion all around. One of the reasons my country has avoided a more Steep increase of deaths is that the Air Force is constantly moving critical patients to wherever there’s vacant ICU capacity. This is a extreme measure and they are doing it routinely here in Chile.
All great truths begin as Blasphemies.
G.B.S.

GLP is like a diamond mine of information, in the sense that you have to shovel mountains of crap to find the diamonds, but it's still worth the pain.
Anonymous Coward
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07/11/2020 05:54 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

About Florida epicenters.


The reason I consider Florida to have 2 epicenters, is based on the number of cases in 3 counties, all of them in same area : Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach.

All the above 3 counties are heavily interconnected, and can be considered as being one area, part of Miami greater metro area.


However, I considered that there is enough population and geographical differences between Miami-Dade county and Broward & Palm Beach counties, to split them in 2 pandemic epicenters.


In numbers, Miami-Dade, with almost 2.8 million people, is clocking over 58k total cases.

Broward & Palm Beach, with almost 3.3 million people, are clocking almost 46k total cases.


The case can be made that FL have 1 epicenter (all 3 above counties) or 3 epicenters (each of the above counties).


It doesn't really matter, if it's 1 or 2 or 3 epicenters. Florida is on it's way to add one more, or possibly 2 more epicenters, by the end of the month, one of them being Tampa (Hillsborough County).
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


DR...much appreciation as always. I am in Miami, granted in the southern suburbs, but it is overly alarming here. Luckily, we live in a low crowd area, large gated home on a dead end street. I was fortunate enough to see the writing on the wall in late January, and got full p100 3M gas masks with face shields for my entire family and do not ever go into an indoor place for shopping without one. At first people that saw me in it had a good laugh...now they ALL are jealous of my gear. Everyone wears masks, but half of them have their noses out or pull them down for this or that constantly. I can tell you that friends, family and co workers (remote) in town are really concerned about the current state of our local situation and lack of government leadership on the issue (all of them bowing to economic pressure and NOT doing the right things). At this time, we are stocked up and always need a few replacement items, but the stores in my area are all well stocked at this time....I think a few months from now that will not be the case.
 Quoting: Joe Preps


3m P100 GAS MASKS are dangerous and not for corona-virus.. Your outward breath or coughs/sneezes comes out of a vent, unfiltered! spreading droplets into the air, you utter dimwit. An N95 mask will filter your outward breaths/coughs etc, so that other people are less at risk from you spreading the virus in water droplets.
Red Hot Chilean Pepe

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07/11/2020 06:12 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

About Florida epicenters.


The reason I consider Florida to have 2 epicenters, is based on the number of cases in 3 counties, all of them in same area : Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach.

All the above 3 counties are heavily interconnected, and can be considered as being one area, part of Miami greater metro area.


However, I considered that there is enough population and geographical differences between Miami-Dade county and Broward & Palm Beach counties, to split them in 2 pandemic epicenters.


In numbers, Miami-Dade, with almost 2.8 million people, is clocking over 58k total cases.

Broward & Palm Beach, with almost 3.3 million people, are clocking almost 46k total cases.


The case can be made that FL have 1 epicenter (all 3 above counties) or 3 epicenters (each of the above counties).


It doesn't really matter, if it's 1 or 2 or 3 epicenters. Florida is on it's way to add one more, or possibly 2 more epicenters, by the end of the month, one of them being Tampa (Hillsborough County).
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


DR...much appreciation as always. I am in Miami, granted in the southern suburbs, but it is overly alarming here. Luckily, we live in a low crowd area, large gated home on a dead end street. I was fortunate enough to see the writing on the wall in late January, and got full p100 3M gas masks with face shields for my entire family and do not ever go into an indoor place for shopping without one. At first people that saw me in it had a good laugh...now they ALL are jealous of my gear. Everyone wears masks, but half of them have their noses out or pull them down for this or that constantly. I can tell you that friends, family and co workers (remote) in town are really concerned about the current state of our local situation and lack of government leadership on the issue (all of them bowing to economic pressure and NOT doing the right things). At this time, we are stocked up and always need a few replacement items, but the stores in my area are all well stocked at this time....I think a few months from now that will not be the case.
 Quoting: Joe Preps


3m P100 GAS MASKS are dangerous and not for corona-virus.. Your outward breath or coughs/sneezes comes out of a vent, unfiltered! spreading droplets into the air, you utter dimwit. An N95 mask will filter your outward breaths/coughs etc, so that other people are less at risk from you spreading the virus in water droplets.
 Quoting: CleverCreator


No need to be agressive in your posting. There are 3M respirators without valve, you just can’t assume they are all valved.
All great truths begin as Blasphemies.
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Anonymous Coward
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07/11/2020 07:02 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

...


DR...much appreciation as always. I am in Miami, granted in the southern suburbs, but it is overly alarming here. Luckily, we live in a low crowd area, large gated home on a dead end street. I was fortunate enough to see the writing on the wall in late January, and got full p100 3M gas masks with face shields for my entire family and do not ever go into an indoor place for shopping without one. At first people that saw me in it had a good laugh...now they ALL are jealous of my gear. Everyone wears masks, but half of them have their noses out or pull them down for this or that constantly. I can tell you that friends, family and co workers (remote) in town are really concerned about the current state of our local situation and lack of government leadership on the issue (all of them bowing to economic pressure and NOT doing the right things). At this time, we are stocked up and always need a few replacement items, but the stores in my area are all well stocked at this time....I think a few months from now that will not be the case.
 Quoting: Joe Preps


3m P100 GAS MASKS are dangerous and not for corona-virus.. Your outward breath or coughs/sneezes comes out of a vent, unfiltered! spreading droplets into the air, you utter dimwit. An N95 mask will filter your outward breaths/coughs etc, so that other people are less at risk from you spreading the virus in water droplets.
 Quoting: CleverCreator


No need to be agressive in your posting. There are 3M respirators without valve, you just can’t assume they are all valved.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79135482


They are all valved. Go look. i did research before i posted.
Anonymous Coward
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07/11/2020 07:05 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
BREAKING - First time President Trump wears a mask in public.

VIDEO:

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

Here you go!
The Gathering Storm

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07/11/2020 07:34 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Prayandprepare000

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07/11/2020 08:19 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Does anybody know anything about Thailand? My son is going to Chiang Mai to teach English and the schools opened, but the visas keep getting delayed and delayed again. Any info about the govt policy over there?
Prayandprepare000

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07/11/2020 08:31 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
I am still positively sure that we can get herd immunity.


Been saying that almost every time this subject was brought up.


However, I have also said that it will take a lot of time, and possibly being infected twice or even 3 times, before powerful and long term antibodies are created.


All the data that we have now shows a very low immunity gain, around 5%, in the general population, even if the number of infected people are above 10%.


The data also shows that the number and lifespan of the antibodies is higher in the patients that were critically ill, and undetectable or extremely low number and lifespan of antibodies in asymptomatic patients.


Obviously, the bigger the viral load, the more severe symptoms, the more antibodies are produced.


Immunity and herd immunity are not only possible, but certain...except that it will take multiple infections before a person gets immunity (especially if the first infection was asymptomatic).


In the grand scheme of things, we are looking at multiple waves before 70% of the population gets infected at least TWICE.



Short term, immunity and herd immunity are not going to make a dent in the second and third wave. This current wave and the next will be massive, unless lock-downs are put in place.


We are, like always, in a catch 22 scenario :

1. if we lock-down again, the economy is going to go down in flames...AND herd immunity will take a helluva lot longer.

2. if we don't lock-down, the economy will still go down in flames, but the herd immunity will be achieved faster.


If we take into consideration that immunity and herd immunity are NOT possible, or it will take 3+ years to get there...we might as well prepare for a medieval lifestyle, in a world with far less people then today.


Again, I see no positive outcome, no matter what we do.


Only a miracle is going to save our civilization.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Thanks for bringing this issue today DR. I have reached a similar view in the past weeks and is a rather delicate topic.

I have been thinking that, as certain we are that we are effed both ways, with or without lockdowns, one might as well chose the shortest path through hell. Letting it simply run and kill whoever it might. I don’t say this lightly, I know it’s a brutal approach but, knowing that we are already beyond any measure to avoid the debacle (barring a miracle as you correctly observe), we might as well speed it up in hopes this will at least allow us to start rebuilding, whatever is left, sooner.
 Quoting: Red Hot Chilean Pepe


Red Hot, my friend, good to see you again.

I have a couple of ideas that I want to float:

1. If it looks like the virus will be around for a long time with people being reinfected by mutations, perhaps we need to reorganize our society to deal with the situation.

Examples: Education, most gov functions, entertainment, work, etc. are ONLINE. We have made a partial adjustment with good results.

Another example: Food production from farmer to consumer is designed around preventing the spread of the virus by using robotics or at least extreme sanitary measures. Food, especially meat, would cost more, but it would slow the spread.

At my manufacturing company, we use masks, gloves, ventilation, limited access to common areas such as offices, 10 foot spacing, etc. It worked great for four months until a group of them decided to attend a wedding. Now, 5 are infected.

Moving to safer, more distributed production means less productivity, more jobs for the unemployed, and higher prices. But, fewer people will die.

To me, the decision is lower standard of living vs. perhaps NOT living.

2. One way to mitigate the negative effects of a virus is to PURPOSELY spread it through a group of volunteers. The person infected who shows the mildest symptoms or long term effects has their virus used to infect the next group.

It is an artificial way to do what nature does. As the virus progresses from one group of victims to the next, the less lethal strain predominates.

We could pay "nothingburgers" to participate since they will not bias the results with a placebo effect.
 Quoting: darth


I praise your ethusiasm and success on implementing sensible measures to avoid the contagions in your company. If only more people would have that kind of focus and great attitude, but you already experienced the greatest of all troubles: people that will simply do stupid things without thinking on their impact (the ones that attended the wedding).

Anyway, much thanks for bringing that very possitive attitude to the thread, it is much required. I have to admit that I am a bit skeptical of any plan that requires multipartite commitment, not because I really don't think is a good idea, but based experience of how multiple people involved often tend to screw things by losing focus and commitment, and doing bone headed mistakes.

But your input really got me thinking that this is the kind of solutions we should be looking for, instead of caving into negativity. All battles are won in the mind and heart first, and much thanks for reminding me of that!
 Quoting: Red Hot Chilean Pepe


Red Hot is right. It isn't brutal, it is the historical norm to just let this burn through. We had smallpox, measles, diphtheria, polio, and all kinds of plagues in centuries past. The strong survived, the weaker died.

I dont say this lightly. I am 65 with asthma and I could die, despite my pile of supplements if I get COVID. But we need to open up and let it burn.

50% of Americans are obese. They sit around and eat junky carbs and so many have type 2 diabetes. They dont get sun for vitamin D. We are weak and lazy for the most part. Why are we destroying life for the healthy while catering to the unhealthy?

I wear a mask and isolate all I can, and will keep doing that. But in the long run, the shortest route through hell is probably best.
Joe Preps

User ID: 77619973
United States
07/11/2020 08:34 PM

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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

About Florida epicenters.


The reason I consider Florida to have 2 epicenters, is based on the number of cases in 3 counties, all of them in same area : Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach.

All the above 3 counties are heavily interconnected, and can be considered as being one area, part of Miami greater metro area.


However, I considered that there is enough population and geographical differences between Miami-Dade county and Broward & Palm Beach counties, to split them in 2 pandemic epicenters.


In numbers, Miami-Dade, with almost 2.8 million people, is clocking over 58k total cases.

Broward & Palm Beach, with almost 3.3 million people, are clocking almost 46k total cases.


The case can be made that FL have 1 epicenter (all 3 above counties) or 3 epicenters (each of the above counties).


It doesn't really matter, if it's 1 or 2 or 3 epicenters. Florida is on it's way to add one more, or possibly 2 more epicenters, by the end of the month, one of them being Tampa (Hillsborough County).
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


DR...much appreciation as always. I am in Miami, granted in the southern suburbs, but it is overly alarming here. Luckily, we live in a low crowd area, large gated home on a dead end street. I was fortunate enough to see the writing on the wall in late January, and got full p100 3M gas masks with face shields for my entire family and do not ever go into an indoor place for shopping without one. At first people that saw me in it had a good laugh...now they ALL are jealous of my gear. Everyone wears masks, but half of them have their noses out or pull them down for this or that constantly. I can tell you that friends, family and co workers (remote) in town are really concerned about the current state of our local situation and lack of government leadership on the issue (all of them bowing to economic pressure and NOT doing the right things). At this time, we are stocked up and always need a few replacement items, but the stores in my area are all well stocked at this time....I think a few months from now that will not be the case.
 Quoting: Joe Preps


3m P100 GAS MASKS are dangerous and not for corona-virus.. Your outward breath or coughs/sneezes comes out of a vent, unfiltered! spreading droplets into the air, you utter dimwit. An N95 mask will filter your outward breaths/coughs etc, so that other people are less at risk from you spreading the virus in water droplets.
 Quoting: CleverCreator


good point and aware of that however: I ADDED A FILTER TO THE EXHAUST VALVES ON ALL OF OUR MASKS!!!, even though I have not (nor anyone in our home) had contact with a single person outside my home family members as 2 of the 4 of us are immuno-compromised, WITHOUT BEING FULLY MASKED UP AND PPE'D TO EXTREME. I know we wont give it to anyone, but damn sure taking every precaution that no one can give it to us!
:batsoup:
ParamedicUK

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07/11/2020 08:35 PM

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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

 Quoting: The Gathering Storm


fab
Herd immunity and vaccine free is the only way……

Peace not War.
Anonymous Coward
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Thailand
07/11/2020 10:10 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Does anybody know anything about Thailand? My son is going to Chiang Mai to teach English and the schools opened, but the visas keep getting delayed and delayed again. Any info about the govt policy over there?
 Quoting: Prayandprepare000


I live in Thailand. People are very compliant here regarding masks. They don't think wearing a mask is a big deal AT ALL. Temperature checks continue at all major stores, restaurants, etc. Many places even require you to write down your name and phone number. This despite no confirmed domestic cases here in 47 days! The only cases are of citizens returning from other countries.

The country remains pretty much shut down to foreigners. They recently started to make exceptions for special cases such as foreign spouses, etc. but you have to jump through so many hoops that it is very difficult to get in.

I seriously doubt your son will be coming here any time soon. And, by the time he gets here, things are gonna get ugly on the economic front since Thailand's GDP is nearly 20% tourism. Those effects are coming later this year. It's gonna be bad.
The Gathering Storm

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07/12/2020 11:41 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
AFP news agency @AFP
33s
#BREAKING Residents re-confined to home in part of Spain's Catalonia: regional govt





GLP