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CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China

 
Serenity Now

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08/29/2020 10:27 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Today, there are massive protests against the virus hoax.


It pleases me immensely to see that the fundamental of my model is again, proven to be true : we, the humans, are the key to this pandemic.


And my base assumption was the most of us are stupid enough to make this pandemic a civilization ending event.


Looking at what is happening today, it is clear that most of us are stupid enough, and the virus will absolutely knock-out the civilization, after mid-October.


Considering other events that will happen before the year's end, I do not see a functional society in December. I see a society that will start to break in October and November, and be fully broke before this year ends.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Yep, we are fucked.
 Quoting: The Gathering Storm



Well. Back to prepping.
Waiting for the inflection point of no return....
Leonero

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08/30/2020 05:43 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Doesn't it look like the political communication strategy is gradually changing in the EU zone countries...?


UK Minister of Health, Matt Hancock: "If the cases increase - he warned - we must adopt very extensive local lockdowns or take further national actions. We do not rule it out, but we would prefer not to".

[link to www.ansa.it (secure)]


It resembles Macron's words almost perfectly...

Merkel herself is starting to change her communication strategy. She wants to save economy but, at the same time, she stated: "We should avoid a second paralyzing lockdown".

From my perspective it is not a complete "refusal" of lockdown... Looks like more a "fear"... Or, maybe, a way to psychologically prepare the masses to what is coming.

Last Edited by Leonero on 08/30/2020 05:49 AM
Anonymous Coward
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08/30/2020 06:04 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Doesn't it look like the political communication strategy is gradually changing in the EU zone countries...?


UK Minister of Health, Matt Hancock: "If the cases increase - he warned - we must adopt very extensive local lockdowns or take further national actions. We do not rule it out, but we would prefer not to".

[link to www.ansa.it (secure)]


It resembles Macron's words almost perfectly...

Merkel herself is starting to change her communication strategy. She wants to save economy but, at the same time, she stated: "We should avoid a second paralyzing lockdown".

From my perspective it is not a complete "refusal" of lockdown... Looks like more a "fear"... Or, maybe, a way to psychologically prepare the masses to what is coming.
 Quoting: Leonero


Today's post from the main thread

France is going crazy.

The hospital near me has reached "overload", the numbers given by the government are fake, they say facilities are empty but it's wrong. I know it because local news outlet and healthcare workers I know are reporting the overload even if the government denies it.

Sirens are wailing night and day, I have counted at least 20 sirens a day in my town and it's no big one, I have seen some ambulances in my streets with paramedics taking coughing people.

My GP tells "coronavirus is everywhere, most common medical issue these days" but the government still goes ahead with "live with the virus" "go on as normally as possible".

We are reopening schools and work as normally as possible, with no social distancing or whatever, only masks, over half of the masks french use have NOT ANY FILTRATION properties and are shown to be as effective as paper tissue to blow your nose.

Myself I am an older teacher with several major lung issues and overweight. We have no protection at all. Only paper masks, not N95 respirators or so. There are no measures at all in schools. Up to 38 students in the same classroom without distancing, windows are locked.

Government says to protect the vulnerable but it's fake, even in an area as infected as mine teachers with major comorbidities have to work without any protection.

I don't know what to do, being as sick as I am, I'm just probably going to die.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79098861
Anonymous Coward
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08/30/2020 07:19 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
All ur predictions r now off timeline
Anonymous Coward
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08/30/2020 10:54 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Waiting for an update

France, Spain and Italy are openly discussing a second lockdown
Leonero

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08/30/2020 12:52 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
UPDATES FROM ITALY

+1365 new positive cases
+ 4 deaths
+ 82 patients hospitalized (1251 currently hospitalized)
+ 7 ICU (currently 86 patients in ICU)
+ 312 recovered

Source
[link to www.corriere.it (secure)]


+490 new epidemic clusters (currently total of 1374 active clusters)

[link to tg24.sky.it (secure)]
Oxi moran

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08/30/2020 02:48 PM

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Waiting for an update

France, Spain and Italy are openly discussing a second lockdown
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79321844


Op i know you'll have an update soon.
Lady Jayne SmithModerator
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08/30/2020 03:24 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
bump
Fate whispers to the warrior

"You cannot withstand the storm"

and the warrior whispers back

"I am the storm"

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KillerBunnyMask
The Gathering Storm

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08/30/2020 03:54 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
UPDATES FROM ITALY

+1365 new positive cases
+ 4 deaths
+ 82 patients hospitalized (1251 currently hospitalized)
+ 7 ICU (currently 86 patients in ICU)
+ 312 recovered

Source
[link to www.corriere.it (secure)]


+490 new epidemic clusters (currently total of 1374 active clusters)

[link to tg24.sky.it (secure)]
 Quoting: Leonero


Death toll expected to rise dramatically in the coming weeks?
Leonero

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Italy
08/30/2020 04:07 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
UPDATES FROM ITALY

+1365 new positive cases
+ 4 deaths
+ 82 patients hospitalized (1251 currently hospitalized)
+ 7 ICU (currently 86 patients in ICU)
+ 312 recovered

Source
[link to www.corriere.it (secure)]


+490 new epidemic clusters (currently total of 1374 active clusters)

[link to tg24.sky.it (secure)]
 Quoting: Leonero


Death toll expected to rise dramatically in the coming weeks?
 Quoting: The Gathering Storm



I don't think so..
But I will keep a look at the hospitalizions and on ICU in the next weeks
Anonymous Coward
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08/30/2020 04:07 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Here's the thing, Ace.

If Americans were never told about a virus via the Satanic MSM airwaves, social media, et al..no one would realize we were in the middle of a health crisis, much less a pandemic.

Average age of "COVID" death is 78.

CDC has determined that more than 90% of the deaths attributed to "COVID" have been people with 2 or more major ailments/per-existing conditions or old people in hospice.

How much more of this nonsense can we continue to accept?
Anonymous Coward
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08/30/2020 04:14 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Today, there are massive protests against the virus hoax.


It pleases me immensely to see that the fundamental of my model is again, proven to be true : we, the humans, are the key to this pandemic.


And my base assumption was the most of us are stupid enough to make this pandemic a civilization ending event.


Looking at what is happening today, it is clear that most of us are stupid enough, and the virus will absolutely knock-out the civilization, after mid-October.


Considering other events that will happen before the year's end, I do not see a functional society in December. I see a society that will start to break in October and November, and be fully broke before this year ends.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Whether or not it is a hoax and whether we want it or not the economy will be ruined anyway. It looks like the target is to make a shift to a new technological paradigm - the 6th technological setup. Coronavirus and civil unrests/wars are parts of the game. As I can judge by situation in Kazakhstan lockdown did not help them much and the number of sick people were similar to that in Belarus without lockdown.
Anonymous Coward
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08/30/2020 04:20 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Here's the thing, Ace.

If Americans were never told about a virus via the Satanic MSM airwaves, social media, et al..no one would realize we were in the middle of a health crisis, much less a pandemic.

Average age of "COVID" death is 78.

CDC has determined that more than 90% of the deaths attributed to "COVID" have been people with 2 or more major ailments/per-existing conditions or old people in hospice.

How much more of this nonsense can we continue to accept?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 75991465


Read the history of the Spanish flu. People were saying the same thing. We have the benefit of heinsight now of coarse.

First wave killed only old and infirm. Most considered it ‘just the flu’.

Then the second wave came. A whole different story. And as OP relayed in a previous post, this current virus has been calculated to be worse than the Spanish flu, taking all into consideration, that’s a very simplified version of it.

How about you come back at Christmas and chime in?
Anonymous Coward
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08/30/2020 05:03 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Here's the thing, Ace.

If Americans were never told about a virus via the Satanic MSM airwaves, social media, et al..no one would realize we were in the middle of a health crisis, much less a pandemic.

Average age of "COVID" death is 78.

CDC has determined that more than 90% of the deaths attributed to "COVID" have been people with 2 or more major ailments/per-existing conditions or old people in hospice.

How much more of this nonsense can we continue to accept?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 75991465


Wouldn’t the same apply to flu, heart attacks, cancer, poisonous snake bite, car accidents..etc.

if no one told you why - you wouldn’t know.

As for co-morbidities. OP has never said this is about the number of deaths. It’s about system/services saturation.

Fortunately, since you visited this thread, when your local systems no longer provide service at least now you will know why and you can think about how so few died from only Covid.
xBl4ckFir3x
PALADINS

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08/30/2020 06:56 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Waiting for an update!
Leonero

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Italy
08/30/2020 08:29 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Here's the thing, Ace.

If Americans were never told about a virus via the Satanic MSM airwaves, social media, et al..no one would realize we were in the middle of a health crisis, much less a pandemic.

Average age of "COVID" death is 78.

CDC has determined that more than 90% of the deaths attributed to "COVID" have been people with 2 or more major ailments/per-existing conditions or old people in hospice.

How much more of this nonsense can we continue to accept?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 75991465


Read the history of the Spanish flu. People were saying the same thing. We have the benefit of heinsight now of coarse.

First wave killed only old and infirm. Most considered it ‘just the flu’.

Then the second wave came. A whole different story. And as OP relayed in a previous post, this current virus has been calculated to be worse than the Spanish flu, taking all into consideration, that’s a very simplified version of it.

How about you come back at Christmas and chime in?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77153496


It really looks like we (as a society) are doing the same mistakes as the past...

I clearly remember many italian doctors saying, in May, that the virus became LESS contagious!

Now, they started to say that we shouldn't worry because even if the virus is more contagious, there are many asymptomatic cases.


But today a woman (in Val D'Aosta region), who was considered "recovered" and tested negative in April after a period of hospitalization... Have been hospitalized again and tested positive AGAIN.
Needless to say, doctors minimize this case and say that maybe the patient wasn't fully recovered... (without any other specific explanation of this phenomenon).


In this way, your comparison with the story of the Spanish Flu is totally correct: all countries look like are in a "denial" mode. Just like before the second wave of Spanish Flu.

Last Edited by Leonero on 08/30/2020 08:30 PM
Gamechanger 2.0
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08/31/2020 02:53 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
I thought it important that I should read a history about the Spanish flu in more depth. Currently watching a video.

As I said previously that I’ll recap on. First wave in the Spanish flu turned up at the tail end of the flu season (same as it did this year). People dismissed it as just the flu that killed young and infirm. (Same as today).

Second wave came. Started in mid august, got going in September, then October and November really ‘kicked off’ again drawing spooky parallels Compared with today’s situation.

I saw the US had 675,000 deaths. Currently US has 187,000 deaths. Personally after a potential second and third wave to come I can see the US topping this rate. This is after taking all into consideration that I’ve learned namely in this thread.

What seemed to happen in the Spanish flu, is that the Troops spread it. Just think about how basic travel was then? Currently covid has reached the Himalayas and tribes of the Amazon and permeated every nook and cranny of the world due to modern travel. This I believe has paved the way for a potential situation far graver than the Spanish flu.

I had to pause the video i’m watching to make this post while it was fresh in my mind..

During the Spanish flu. I understand it acquired it’s name, due to the Spanish openly/honestly reporting it’s death rate, due to it being a neutral country. Of coarse the war was going on and all involved wanted to maintain the morale of their people and not to look weak to the enemy. Point being here, is that the media were ordered to downplay the severity of the virus!! Again mirroring the situation today.

So roughly in this order, is what I believe has happened today.

Release a bio weapon in the most populous country at a certain time of year, knowing it would be spread during new year celebrations.. stay hush for as long as possible about it.. downplay it at first.. keep international travel operating as long as possible to enable a broad spread globally.. then feign concern and eventually lock down (too late).. then again downplay it.. open up again, allowing for a greater spread this time within each country.. currently we are here*.. then comes the far greater second wave, and as DR has stated we know it’s more contagious, this should in turn make it more deadly filling hospitals up.. but I sense there’s a further twist, whether it be in this fall wave or the third in the early new year of 2021, in which bodies really should be lining the streets. The vaccine plan is another story, I’m just curious as to how it mutates or develops considering it is a bio weapon for population control.

Just some thoughts there.
miabelieves

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08/31/2020 03:09 PM

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496 which video are you watching?
Hold on to your undies, it's gonna be a hell of a ride
Anonymous Coward
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08/31/2020 03:21 PM
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496 which video are you watching?
 Quoting: miabelieves


Just going through a few now. Also reading up. Here it is


Anonymous Coward
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08/31/2020 03:26 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
I posted this before, but really worth doing it again if anyone hasn’t read it. The parallels compared to today are striking

We have the same corruption in leadership and same stupid selfish practices as back then. Surely this equals the same result?


[link to www.history.com (secure)]

1.8 billion people back in 1918. Comparing to today’s population numbers, could we see the same percentages occur? Or worse? [link to www.answers.com (secure)]
Anonymous Coward
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Brazil
09/01/2020 12:30 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
I posted this before, but really worth doing it again if anyone hasn’t read it. The parallels compared to today are striking

We have the same corruption in leadership and same stupid selfish practices as back then. Surely this equals the same result?


[link to www.history.com (secure)]

1.8 billion people back in 1918. Comparing to today’s population numbers, could we see the same percentages occur? Or worse? [link to www.answers.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77153496


So far, the virus has come in contact with at least half of the world population, see the numbers of the main countries affected, USA 187 thousand dead, and Brazil 121 thousand dead. Taking into account that, for each dead person there are at least 1000 infected, it can be said that both the mortality and the lethality of the virus are very low. The only possibility for a second wave to arise is if the virus gives rise to a new, more deadly strain, which so far does not seem to be happening.
JAZZz50

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09/01/2020 01:04 AM

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i expect total deaths to b much worse. total including deaths not directly caused by the virus such as starvation,riots,other illnesses that won't get medical care,lack of supplies including meds,etc.

in the early beginning,JAN, i did the math and came up with 1 billion dead total within 3 years WORLDWIDE. to get this i assumed the grid would stay up and function,power and water. if we lose that this # will b very low. i took the projected # for an EMP and adjusted it with the grid up than calculated that % thru the world. we still have med shortages,ppl not getting the medical care they need,ppl out of work,food shortages,etc. these will get worse. we have been very very lucky so far. the govern plan to cover up and kick the can has delayed the inevitable for now.remember when u are falling u are fine til u hit the ground.

note also, i did that prediction before we knew as much as today. there are times over the year i have thought my # is too conservative. the long term affects of the virus might delay the deaths so ppl spread the virus more.in which case the % of death rate will go way high from where it is now.

mutations have dropped the death rate down. it was running much higher 25-45% in the early months.was running 25% in the early datys in the US. as more testing has found more assymptomatics that % is much lower. but 2nd infections and long term health effects are not yet being reported well enuf to know.

stock pile and stay safe folks
JAZZZ50
Anonymous Coward
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09/01/2020 03:20 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
I posted this before, but really worth doing it again if anyone hasn’t read it. The parallels compared to today are striking

We have the same corruption in leadership and same stupid selfish practices as back then. Surely this equals the same result?


[link to www.history.com (secure)]

1.8 billion people back in 1918. Comparing to today’s population numbers, could we see the same percentages occur? Or worse? [link to www.answers.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77153496


So far, the virus has come in contact with at least half of the world population, see the numbers of the main countries affected, USA 187 thousand dead, and Brazil 121 thousand dead. Taking into account that, for each dead person there are at least 1000 infected, it can be said that both the mortality and the lethality of the virus are very low. The only possibility for a second wave to arise is if the virus gives rise to a new, more deadly strain, which so far does not seem to be happening.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79070068


Yes. I’m suspecting as DR is saying that due to it being more contagious, this alone will in turn cause it to be more deadly. But more to the point, it seems that there is a further plan for the third wave. So part two of the bio weapon will concentrate on spread, Will it then lay dormant and be activated in the third wave where it becomes really deadly for more people abruptly?

In order to provide the fear needed to force a vaccination that’s what needs to happen. And Moreso if it’s for depopulation then it’s got a way to go. I’m very curious at this stage. We had it start when the flu season was almost done, starting from nothing in all countries. Now we have a well laid spread across all countries giving a far greater base to start from, right at the beginning of the flu season. I suspect a swift change soon, very swift, that will take many off guard.
Anonymous Coward
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09/01/2020 03:29 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
i expect total deaths to b much worse. total including deaths not directly caused by the virus such as starvation,riots,other illnesses that won't get medical care,lack of supplies including meds,etc.

in the early beginning,JAN, i did the math and came up with 1 billion dead total within 3 years WORLDWIDE. to get this i assumed the grid would stay up and function,power and water. if we lose that this # will b very low. i took the projected # for an EMP and adjusted it with the grid up than calculated that % thru the world. we still have med shortages,ppl not getting the medical care they need,ppl out of work,food shortages,etc. these will get worse. we have been very very lucky so far. the govern plan to cover up and kick the can has delayed the inevitable for now.remember when u are falling u are fine til u hit the ground.

note also, i did that prediction before we knew as much as today. there are times over the year i have thought my # is too conservative. the long term affects of the virus might delay the deaths so ppl spread the virus more.in which case the % of death rate will go way high from where it is now.

mutations have dropped the death rate down. it was running much higher 25-45% in the early months.was running 25% in the early datys in the US. as more testing has found more assymptomatics that % is much lower. but 2nd infections and long term health effects are not yet being reported well enuf to know.

stock pile and stay safe folks
 Quoting: JAZZz50


The governments are playing people like fiddles. That is clearly showing how their propaganda is at play. They’re the masters at that, so many have bought the bait. Also I think the viral loads will be like never seen before, and also the shelf life of this virus on objects. As I said, it was the back end of flu season. Wasn’t too cold here, now we have a full winter of cold temperatures ideal for keeping this thing alive and spreading it, plus the lowering of immune systems.

We should see the results very soon. I’m following the trend here in Czech. It never had a proper first wave as they closed early. Just back in august it had already exceeded its first wave peak. I can see the trend developing clearly now. The chart is poised to become a mountain in coming weeks months. Wouldn’t even like to hazard a guess as to just how many times greater this wave here will be. Not just ten or twenty times greater, more than that even. What’s happened here has bolstered DR’s predictions and data.
Dick Tuttle

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09/01/2020 04:15 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Maybe 5%, not 50%

I posted this before, but really worth doing it again if anyone hasn’t read it. The parallels compared to today are striking

We have the same corruption in leadership and same stupid selfish practices as back then. Surely this equals the same result?


[link to www.history.com (secure)]

1.8 billion people back in 1918. Comparing to today’s population numbers, could we see the same percentages occur? Or worse? [link to www.answers.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77153496


So far, the virus has come in contact with at least half of the world population, see the numbers of the main countries affected, USA 187 thousand dead, and Brazil 121 thousand dead. Taking into account that, for each dead person there are at least 1000 infected, it can be said that both the mortality and the lethality of the virus are very low. The only possibility for a second wave to arise is if the virus gives rise to a new, more deadly strain, which so far does not seem to be happening.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79070068

Dick Tuttle
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09/01/2020 05:06 AM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Maybe 5%, not 50%

I posted this before, but really worth doing it again if anyone hasn’t read it. The parallels compared to today are striking

We have the same corruption in leadership and same stupid selfish practices as back then. Surely this equals the same result?


[link to www.history.com (secure)]

1.8 billion people back in 1918. Comparing to today’s population numbers, could we see the same percentages occur? Or worse? [link to www.answers.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77153496


So far, the virus has come in contact with at least half of the world population, see the numbers of the main countries affected, USA 187 thousand dead, and Brazil 121 thousand dead. Taking into account that, for each dead person there are at least 1000 infected, it can be said that both the mortality and the lethality of the virus are very low. The only possibility for a second wave to arise is if the virus gives rise to a new, more deadly strain, which so far does not seem to be happening.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79070068

 Quoting: Dick Tuttle


The big debate - 5 or 50%. All down to T-cell immunity which is still up in the air for debate?
Red Hot Chilean Pepe
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09/01/2020 07:31 AM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Maybe 5%, not 50%

I posted this before, but really worth doing it again if anyone hasn’t read it. The parallels compared to today are striking

We have the same corruption in leadership and same stupid selfish practices as back then. Surely this equals the same result?


[link to www.history.com (secure)]

1.8 billion people back in 1918. Comparing to today’s population numbers, could we see the same percentages occur? Or worse? [link to www.answers.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77153496


So far, the virus has come in contact with at least half of the world population, see the numbers of the main countries affected, USA 187 thousand dead, and Brazil 121 thousand dead. Taking into account that, for each dead person there are at least 1000 infected, it can be said that both the mortality and the lethality of the virus are very low. The only possibility for a second wave to arise is if the virus gives rise to a new, more deadly strain, which so far does not seem to be happening.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79070068

 Quoting: Dick Tuttle


The big debate - 5 or 50%. All down to T-cell immunity which is still up in the air for debate?
 Quoting: ParamedicUK


I would not call it immunity but protection. Some people are probably better protected from dying from the virus, but not from getting infected again and again.
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deplorable recollector  (OP)

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09/01/2020 09:24 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
September 1st, 2020.


The second wave of the pandemic is about to start.

What we have witnessed, to date, was a minuscule first wave between Feb-May, in the Northern Hemisphere, most affected countries being a handful of Western European countries (U.K., Italy, Spain, France, Belgium, Netherlands) and several U.S. states (New England states and California).


Once the lock-downs were lifted, a massive resurgence (albeit, heavily reduced due to warmer weather, residual lock-down effects, no schools, no in-door events and a part of the population wearing masks and reducing their exposure, vacation time, etc.) of the pandemic started in the U.S., with the first wave in the Southern hemisphere, which heavily affected many countries in Africa and Latin&South America.


Europe was a little bit later, due to lock-downs not being removed as fast as in the U.S. while also being more restrictive and slower with reopening phases.


When the lock-downs were lifted after 2 months, and not 3, (as I was personally expecting), in order to push the resurgence of the first wave closer to September, and moving to the second wave with a minimal load of the first wave resurgence, my most feared scenario (the one when the second wave will start at the back of the first wave) was bound to happen, and it happened.


This month is going to be the month when second wave starts. Schools will be fully reopened in Europe and the U.S. Everyone will return to work, vacation time is over.

The effects of schools reopening and people returning to work will not be fully felt this month. Yes, the number of cases will increase, but it won't be as drastic as people expect.


Schools and workplaces are the main driving force of the second wave, paired with the use of mass transit. It will take roughly 3 to 4 weeks to see the effects of people coming back to work, and about 6 weeks to see the effects of schools reopening.



The governments will continue with localized lock-downs, closures of businesses, quarantining and isolating sick students and their classmates, schools closures, etc. These measures will have a dual effect on the pandemic : first, it will initially slow down the spread of the virus at workplaces and schools, and secondly, it will give the governments a false image of "containing" the virus.


I do not expect any nation-wide lock-downs this month, unless a really bad outbreak will take place somewhere, but sometimes around mid-October, as I stated multiple times, the decision for nation-wide lock-downs will have to be taken. Whether it will be taken or not, that remains to be seen.


The height of the second wave will be reached in November, but it will be conditioned by lock-downs starting in October. If nation-wide lock-downs won't be in place in October, the countries that will choose the no lock-down path, will reach the peak of the second wave in January, and that peak will be catastrophic.


Not only that the number of cases will explode, come October, but the influx of hospitalizations will keep rising, many countries in the Northern Hemisphere reaching their ICU full usage before November.


We are now at the point where the number of new hospitalizations is roughly equal with the number of discharges, with ICU usage slowly, but surely, rising weekly. From now on, it will only go up, both for hospitalizations and ICU, in the Northern Hemisphere.


The worst decision ever was reopening the schools. Most children are asymptomatic, but also much more contagious. Detection of new infections is already limited by testing capacity, which is pretty much the maximum we can do, either because lack of labs, lack of testing kits or lack of regeants for tests.


The schools will stay open, for a good while. I am expecting an infection rate of about 0.5% in the first week of school, a 1% in the second week, a 3% in the third week and about 5% in the fourth week of school, and this is with a perfect detection, contact tracing and schools closures.

Most countries won't be able to do it, and about 6 weeks after the schools will be open, the infection rate will be close to 10%.

Once this percentage is reached, we will also reach an additional 3-4% infection rate for the parents, and another 1-2% infection rate at workplaces, again, with perfect detection, contact tracing and closures of businesses.


Basically, if the schools will be open for 6 weeks, there will be an additional case load of 15% in the general population, by November.

This will be about 3 times more compared to the first wave, but it most likely be higher then that, for most countries choosing to keep schools open and avoiding nation-wide lock-down.


Economically speaking, in a world based on consumerism, we need at least December sales to be "normal", which means that nation-wide lock-down will either be avoided until January, or, they will take place in October and November, with a reopening in December.


As I said before, if we reach November without nation-wide lock-downs, or at least full closure of the schools, the pandemic will devastate Europe and the U.S., the effects being similar, if not worse, then a lock-down.


We are already having a shortage of qualified healthcare workers, and there is a constant load on hospitals, most medics and nurses being at their limit. We can continue like this for another month or two, but only if hospitalizations and ICU usage will start to dwindle.


I expect the contrary, with schools being reopened, and people returning to work from their vacations.




I have a working theory on the virus, and by mid-October, it will be proven true or not.

Basically, I have always wondered why children are virtually asymptomatic, and the elderly were basically condemned to death, once they got infected.

Sure, the much weaker immune system and the presence of other health issues, are making the death rates among the elderly very high, but why the pneumonia, as the main symptom, is so grave?


My theory is that the virus, when started to spread, back in January, most exposed hosts were adults, and the virus primary functions are to replicate and avoid detection by the immune system. When most of the hosts were adults, with an immune system stronger then elderly, but weaker then a younger person or a child, the virus mutation were designed to replicate inside a normal adult body, while also avoiding the detection of a normal adult immune system.

When the virus mutates between hosts, it gets better at replicating at a certain rate, in order to avoid detection by the immune system. When the immune system detects and reacts to the presence of the virus, the virus, initially, starts to replicate faster, trying to overcome the immune response.


Now, the elderly have a much weaker immune system, and if being exposed to a mutation that is designed for a fairly strong immune system (adults), the virus replicates much faster while also overcoming the immune response from the start.

Older people, when infected with such mutations, which were (and still are) predominant among adults, were unable to detect it, the virus replicates much faster, and pneumonia, as a symptom, is very serious, and paired with underlying health issues, leads to a high death rate.


With children and younger people, it was the opposite. Their immune system is stronger then adults, they don't have underlying health issues, and when infected by mutations characteristic to adult immune systems, the virus cannot avoid detection, it replicates much faster (children have massive viral loads), but the immune system is able to fight it off, avoiding installation of symptoms.


However, schools were closed very early in the pandemic, much earlier then lock-downs, and the virus did not had enough young hosts to mutate in order to have strains that are designed for strongest of the immune systems.


If my theory is correct, and schools will stay open for 6 weeks or more, new strains will appear among younger people and children, strains that will be designed to replicate at lower rates and avoid being detected by stronger immune systems.


Those strains will lead to a much higher hospitalization rates, higher ICU usage and higher death rates among adults (close to 10%), while elderly will be killed much faster and death rates among those 70+ will be close to 100%.


Overall, if my theory is correct, by mid-October we will see ICUs being overloaded, much more then they are now, and death rates among those between 40 and 60 at or over 10%.


If my theory is not correct (and it is almost certain that is not correct), we will still see a higher hospitalization rates, ICU and death rates in the cold season, because the immune systems get weaker, for everyone.


The question remains : is the school opening and people returning to work going to drastically increase the number of infections, hospitalizations, ICU and deaths to the point where nation-wide lock-downs are the only way to avoid a medical catastrophe, that would otherwise kill and incapacitate most of the workforce?


We will see by mid-October.


I am personally expecting a disastrous second wave, if schools are kept open until mid-October and nation-wide lock-downs aren't in place by November.

Last Edited by deplorable recollector on 09/01/2020 09:25 AM
Anonymous Coward
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09/01/2020 09:55 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Thank you for the update, DR.

I hope you are wrong and I am sure so are you, but I have a gut feeling that you will be proven right again.
Lilaq

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09/01/2020 11:26 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Thank you for the update and your hard work on all this, DR. I fear you are absolutely right about what's to come. I'm still shocked at how many people think the virus is a hoax and are solely focused on the political division in the U.S., nevermind the rest of the world.





GLP