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CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China

 
Anonymous Coward
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Czech Republic
09/16/2020 05:14 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
...




Friday is always the day with highest numbers. Sure, Spain have 12k+ today, and France will most likely have around 11k today.

I am expecting this for today.


However, I will worry when such numbers will be next week, on Tue, Wed, Thu and Friday.


But it's not about France and Spain only. There are another 10 countries in Europe with spikes this week, 3 of them with massive spikes.


The pandemic will grow in Europe, as I said since June. It will start in in the beginning of August, it will slowly build until end of August, it will grow significantly in the first half of September (all this already happened) and it will explode all over Europe in October.


By mid-October, it will be decision time : lock-down or not.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector

Maybe it is time to start worrying now. I live in Belgium and they say this second wave will be worse than the first one as now, the coronavirus is everywhere. The same, I guess is true for most other countries.

What if the numbers really start to peak a few weeks from now? What if they go on climbing? What if this time, ECU's (emergence care units) REALLY get overwhelmed and again choices have to be made as to who is worth saving and who is not?

How will this affect society, the economy, people's income? Will there be many people losing their job? Maybe losing their homes, become homeless?

Maybe we should starting thinking in earnest about what the course of events could be in such a scenario - so as to avoid maximally to be taken by surprise.

And if possible, on a country per country basis. Other threads should be opened for this I assume.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78553095


Places like Italy UK were ahead in the first wave. We saw what happened there. They are due to have higher waves no doubt. The media there is downplaying the low death rates to lull people to lower their guard (as the death rates haven’t registered yet) what I’m seeing here in Czech tells me the rates will rise everywhere else in the same fashion, but they’re downplaying it as much as they can til the last moment.

I have family in UK and Spain and have a rounded idea of all the media approaches for each country. As I said above, czech should be a litmus test for other countries. All seems to be going ahead as per DR has stated. It is time to prepare (not worry that won’t help) but all is on the cards.

Imo the rates will absolutely rocket at a rate not even seen in the first wave, it’s now more contagious, plus we have a whole fall and winter season ahead, unlike it happening before at the end of the season.

In the thread that Jazz wrote, he has it spot on for phase 5, which I can see occurring before the year is out. ICU cases are quickly rising here, this is then reflected in the death rates.

In answer to your question. Read here what Jazz has outlined for phase 5

Thread: PHASES OF A PANDEMIC OUTBREAK
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 47864185


I find it a coincidence that the uk are having problems with testing capacity right at the time when everyone always catches a cold. Isn’t it the case that the tests would come back positive for people with a cold, with it also being a type of corona virus? Lots of people are ill right now with the usual back to school colds so this would massively inflate the number of positive tests if all could access one.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79356639


I can see the spin so clearly being played out in the UK. They will say and do everything to not cause panic and hinder any real effective approach to solve the issue. All the while doing all they can to ensure maximum spread. I think back to January and February. All international travel could have been banned. It wasn’t, as there was/is an international effort to make sure this spreads and does its job.

The numbers are always dubious one way or another too.
Anonymous Coward
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09/16/2020 05:17 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
So checked in today and it was yet another record for daily infections in Czech 1674 this puts it on par with places like Spain and France per million of people (in this current phase). I’ll leave doing the updates for a while as I could be posting records everyday now. I’ll gather the weeks info and compile it next time.
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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Romania
09/16/2020 06:19 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
So checked in today and it was yet another record for daily infections in Czech 1674 this puts it on par with places like Spain and France per million of people (in this current phase). I’ll leave doing the updates for a while as I could be posting records everyday now. I’ll gather the weeks info and compile it next time.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79384438



When did you guys reopened the schools?


If it was September 14th, like other former commie countries, well, expect these numbers to be dwarfed in 2 weeks, because if these are the numbers before schools were reopened, it's pretty fucking bad.

1,500+ cases a day for a country of 11 million, before schools reopened, will lead to 4k+ cases / day by mid-October.

Such numbers are unsustainable by the healthcare system.


Czechia will have to lock-down before November...pretty much like everyone.

Last Edited by deplorable recollector on 09/16/2020 06:24 AM
Anonymous Coward
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09/16/2020 08:12 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
news from Spain, there will be new restrictions introduced soon, starting on the weekend. Around Madrid they have 339/100,000 cases, which is insane.

The lockdown in Israel will be done earlier for schools starting tomorrow, as numbers are soaring.
Guythu

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09/16/2020 10:02 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
So checked in today and it was yet another record for daily infections in Czech 1674 this puts it on par with places like Spain and France per million of people (in this current phase). I’ll leave doing the updates for a while as I could be posting records everyday now. I’ll gather the weeks info and compile it next time.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79384438



When did you guys reopened the schools?


If it was September 14th, like other former commie countries, well, expect these numbers to be dwarfed in 2 weeks, because if these are the numbers before schools were reopened, it's pretty fucking bad.

1,500+ cases a day for a country of 11 million, before schools reopened, will lead to 4k+ cases / day by mid-October.

Such numbers are unsustainable by the healthcare system.


Czechia will have to lock-down before November...pretty much like everyone.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Best I can find is Sept 1st

“Of course, we hear what people say,” he said, adding that the latest changes have been announced in time as 12 days are still left until the September 1 start of the new school year, when the face masks duty will take effect in the aforementioned selected premises

[link to news.expats.cz (secure)]
Anonymous Coward
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Malta
09/16/2020 11:47 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Malta hit 106 cases today (new record), in a country of half a million.

Schools open in 12 days' time, but the teachers want to delay the opening.
Anonymous Coward
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Czech Republic
09/16/2020 12:51 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
So checked in today and it was yet another record for daily infections in Czech 1674 this puts it on par with places like Spain and France per million of people (in this current phase). I’ll leave doing the updates for a while as I could be posting records everyday now. I’ll gather the weeks info and compile it next time.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79384438



When did you guys reopened the schools?


If it was September 14th, like other former commie countries, well, expect these numbers to be dwarfed in 2 weeks, because if these are the numbers before schools were reopened, it's pretty fucking bad.

1,500+ cases a day for a country of 11 million, before schools reopened, will lead to 4k+ cases / day by mid-October.

Such numbers are unsustainable by the healthcare system.


Czechia will have to lock-down before November...pretty much like everyone.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Well I asked my partner. The schools opened proper on September 1st as far as I understand, that was certainly the case for this town, it’s possible other areas were later, I can’t find out myself and this is not a popular topic as a whole at home lol, but yeah I’d say September 1st.

She’s Also a nursery teacher. The nurseries also opened proper on September 1st. But she went back for the last week of august, so there was a trickle of nursery students from around that point.

The routine for the nursery is to take temperatures in the morning +face masks in the pick up/lobby area. If any child is displaying any type of sickness, they are told not to come in, and must not come back for 10 days. As you know full well this is futile as the virus can lay undetected for three weeks +.

There is no testing routine, certainly in this town. The local doctor will only recommended you go to hospital if you were properly ill, like breathing issues I imagine. That would also be the only scenario you’d get tested too. So many potentially could have the virus and just be sent home, probably advised to lay low, but there would be no proper organization or procedure imo, I mean that would easily leave it open for someone infected to just go about their business.

Funny you say that, but I had the 4K figure in my head for some reason. But without any calculations (I just going by observing the graph pattern) I can imagine it being even higher than that.

The scene is set here. I know many out there will be taking this seriously, but the majority simply don’t care or are ignorant of just how contagious this can be, which will also present itself in the rates.
Anonymous Coward
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Czech Republic
09/16/2020 12:54 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Is there still a pandemic?

Seriously.

They've shut down the COVID hospital wings in my State, it's not really reported here... the death rate is incredibly low...

Big nothing burger.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77947693


Yep the same people were saying that in the Spanish flu. Look how that went. Not big in researching I assume? You’ve waded past a whole thread of prime info. The death rates will manifest. See my recent posts. Where I am is (has proved) precisely what DR is outlining.

You remind me of my mother in law. Clueless.
Anonymous Coward
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Czech Republic
09/16/2020 01:02 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
As I’m on here posting I’ll go ahead and add this. At the halfway point in the day, the tally for czech reads 1290 (which is the highest I’ve ever seen at the halfway point) (again) yesterday’s halfway point record was 965 and was an end tally of 1674.

So where the heck could that figure end up? In the 2k’s maybe? I don’t know as it’s new territory. Death rates are consistently higher than they have registered for months, so even if they go up, up, then down kind of style, overall they’re coming through proper now. ICU is building by the day. And all percentages are going up.
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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Romania
09/16/2020 01:13 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
As I’m on here posting I’ll go ahead and add this. At the halfway point in the day, the tally for czech reads 1290 (which is the highest I’ve ever seen at the halfway point) (again) yesterday’s halfway point record was 965 and was an end tally of 1674.

So where the heck could that figure end up? In the 2k’s maybe? I don’t know as it’s new territory. Death rates are consistently higher than they have registered for months, so even if they go up, up, then down kind of style, overall they’re coming through proper now. ICU is building by the day. And all percentages are going up.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79385618



Around to 2k, yes, for today.


So, you guys reopened schools on September 1st...dang, no wonder the numbers are soaring.


This is bad, 4k / day by the end of this month (not by mid-October), unless schools start to close asap.

Last Edited by deplorable recollector on 09/16/2020 07:52 PM
Anonymous Coward
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United Kingdom
09/16/2020 03:10 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
As I’m on here posting I’ll go ahead and add this. At the halfway point in the day, the tally for czech reads 1290 (which is the highest I’ve ever seen at the halfway point) (again) yesterday’s halfway point record was 965 and was an end tally of 1674.

So where the heck could that figure end up? In the 2k’s maybe? I don’t know as it’s new territory. Death rates are consistently higher than they have registered for months, so even if they go up, up, then down kind of style, overall they’re coming through proper now. ICU is building by the day. And all percentages are going up.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79385618



Around to 2k, yes, for today.


So, you guys reopened schools on September 1st...dang, no wonder the numbers are soaring.


This is bad, 4k / day by the end of this month )not by mid-October), unless schools start to close asap.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector



Thanks for the updates as ever.
You been right since the start.

Can you explain or expand on how or why Sweden is doing ok.

Is it due to the 2nd wave that the rest of the eu is seeing has not got going.

This country is being held up as the gold standard on how to control it.
Any ideas on them and the uptick i think the schools went back weeks ago as well.
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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Romania
09/16/2020 07:49 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
As I’m on here posting I’ll go ahead and add this. At the halfway point in the day, the tally for czech reads 1290 (which is the highest I’ve ever seen at the halfway point) (again) yesterday’s halfway point record was 965 and was an end tally of 1674.

So where the heck could that figure end up? In the 2k’s maybe? I don’t know as it’s new territory. Death rates are consistently higher than they have registered for months, so even if they go up, up, then down kind of style, overall they’re coming through proper now. ICU is building by the day. And all percentages are going up.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79385618



Around to 2k, yes, for today.


So, you guys reopened schools on September 1st...dang, no wonder the numbers are soaring.


This is bad, 4k / day by the end of this month (not by mid-October), unless schools start to close asap.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector



2,136 today for Czechia.


That is 16 days after schools reopened.



I will add Czechia on my watch list, until October 5th. I really want to see the impact of one month of schools on a country that was spared almost entirely in the first wave.


If Czechia numbers will rise all the way up to October 5th, and reach a daily case count of 5k min. to 6k max., they will lose control of the pandemic by October 15th.

Last Edited by deplorable recollector on 09/16/2020 07:52 PM
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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09/16/2020 07:59 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
As I’m on here posting I’ll go ahead and add this. At the halfway point in the day, the tally for czech reads 1290 (which is the highest I’ve ever seen at the halfway point) (again) yesterday’s halfway point record was 965 and was an end tally of 1674.

So where the heck could that figure end up? In the 2k’s maybe? I don’t know as it’s new territory. Death rates are consistently higher than they have registered for months, so even if they go up, up, then down kind of style, overall they’re coming through proper now. ICU is building by the day. And all percentages are going up.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79385618



Around to 2k, yes, for today.


So, you guys reopened schools on September 1st...dang, no wonder the numbers are soaring.


This is bad, 4k / day by the end of this month )not by mid-October), unless schools start to close asap.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector



Thanks for the updates as ever.
You been right since the start.

Can you explain or expand on how or why Sweden is doing ok.

Is it due to the 2nd wave that the rest of the eu is seeing has not got going.

This country is being held up as the gold standard on how to control it.
Any ideas on them and the uptick i think the schools went back weeks ago as well.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 70917002



What is happening in Sweden is irrelevant. Doesn't matter.

For the same reason it doesn't matter how Latvia or another 50+ countries are doing, which are all doing it way better then Sweden.



Sweden is what you can call "fake news". Pretty much everything from Sweden is fake, from their number of cases, their number of dead to the blatant lie of "Sweden did not locked-down".


They did locked-down. A LOT.


And there is the cultural part, Swedes are probably the most indifferent and colder (pun not intended) people ever. They barely talk and socialize, compared to most other people. They are also socialist, and listen to what the government told them to do.

They are also an isolated country : no tourism, no transport hub.


There a gazillion reasons why nobody can do what Sweden did.


It is impossible.


Sweden is used by the hoaxers to prove something that is not real.

Last Edited by deplorable recollector on 09/16/2020 07:59 PM
Oscanator

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09/16/2020 09:58 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
As I’m on here posting I’ll go ahead and add this. At the halfway point in the day, the tally for czech reads 1290 (which is the highest I’ve ever seen at the halfway point) (again) yesterday’s halfway point record was 965 and was an end tally of 1674.

So where the heck could that figure end up? In the 2k’s maybe? I don’t know as it’s new territory. Death rates are consistently higher than they have registered for months, so even if they go up, up, then down kind of style, overall they’re coming through proper now. ICU is building by the day. And all percentages are going up.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79385618



Around to 2k, yes, for today.


So, you guys reopened schools on September 1st...dang, no wonder the numbers are soaring.


This is bad, 4k / day by the end of this month )not by mid-October), unless schools start to close asap.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector



Thanks for the updates as ever.
You been right since the start.

Can you explain or expand on how or why Sweden is doing ok.

Is it due to the 2nd wave that the rest of the eu is seeing has not got going.

This country is being held up as the gold standard on how to control it.
Any ideas on them and the uptick i think the schools went back weeks ago as well.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 70917002



What is happening in Sweden is irrelevant. Doesn't matter.

For the same reason it doesn't matter how Latvia or another 50+ countries are doing, which are all doing it way better then Sweden.



Sweden is what you can call "fake news". Pretty much everything from Sweden is fake, from their number of cases, their number of dead to the blatant lie of "Sweden did not locked-down".


They did locked-down. A LOT.


And there is the cultural part, Swedes are probably the most indifferent and colder (pun not intended) people ever. They barely talk and socialize, compared to most other people. They are also socialist, and listen to what the government told them to do.

They are also an isolated country : no tourism, no transport hub.


There a gazillion reasons why nobody can do what Sweden did.


It is impossible.


Sweden is used by the hoaxers to prove something that is not real.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


hesright
Doommonkey
AC No More!

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09/17/2020 07:31 AM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Thanks, everyone, for contributing to this discussion (and particularly to DR, for starting and maintaining it). This is a very valuable thread.
I'm fortunate in that the school where I teach is staying digital through the spring semester, at least .... which is a damn good thing, since we're still in a pretty infected area. CA is out of tests again.... sigh. You can still get one, but they're hard to come by. My county is showing the highest numbers in the SF Bay Area. I'm glad we have the good sense not to try to return any time in the near future. At present, we're trying to cope with really horrendous air quality due to the smoke, which is probably masking symptoms of COVID, since we all feel like we have a cold.

Don't stress the RW contributions on the other thread ... I think most of us who are regulars there take his analyses with a huge grain of salt. I'm not sure what he has invested in trying to make things look better than they are, but it's a pattern, and we've all seen it. I don't think any of us looks to him for data analysis ... or, few do, in any event.

Thanks for the info on how to pin a thread. I managed to do it once, but then didn't know how I did it ... I guess the key is to go to page one, which is what I was missing. I found this thread easily tonight, just by typing in Chinese Virus ... it popped right up. I know that isn't always the case, though, and this is a thread I do want to follow.
Looks like freedom but it feels like death. It's something in between I guess... it's closing time.

Lenonard Cohen
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09/17/2020 07:45 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Maybe it is time to start worrying now. I live in Belgium and they say this second wave will be worse than the first one as now, the coronavirus is everywhere. The same, I guess is true for most other countries.

What if the numbers really start to peak a few weeks from now? What if they go on climbing? What if this time, ECU's (emergence care units) REALLY get overwhelmed and again choices have to be made as to who is worth saving and who is not?

How will this affect society, the economy, people's income? Will there be many people losing their job? Maybe losing their homes, become homeless?

Maybe we should starting thinking in earnest about what the course of events could be in such a scenario - so as to avoid maximally to be taken by surprise.

And if possible, on a country per country basis. Other threads should be opened for this I assume.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward ...



The numbers will go up quite a bit by the end of this months. This is at least what I expect to happen, and this is what I predicted to happen, because, well, schools reopening and people going back to work from summer vacations.

But the rise in September, while significant, won't be the peak.October will see massive exponential rise in cases everywhere in Europe, as well as in the U.S....unless schools will be mostly online.


I repeat what I have said multiple times in the last weeks : if most schools stay open in person through October, if nation-wide lock-downs aren't in place by the end of October (and this is the very last possible moment in time that might stop the pandemic) and most people will go to work and use mass transit once the cold season starts (after mid-October usually is cold enough to lower the immune system), we will see how a pandemic really looks like.

What we had until now was a glimpse...



 Quoting: deplorable recollector

I assume you are talking here about the US specifically. But I also assume it will be similar for Europe, won't it?
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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09/17/2020 07:50 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Maybe it is time to start worrying now. I live in Belgium and they say this second wave will be worse than the first one as now, the coronavirus is everywhere. The same, I guess is true for most other countries.

What if the numbers really start to peak a few weeks from now? What if they go on climbing? What if this time, ECU's (emergence care units) REALLY get overwhelmed and again choices have to be made as to who is worth saving and who is not?

How will this affect society, the economy, people's income? Will there be many people losing their job? Maybe losing their homes, become homeless?

Maybe we should starting thinking in earnest about what the course of events could be in such a scenario - so as to avoid maximally to be taken by surprise.

And if possible, on a country per country basis. Other threads should be opened for this I assume.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward ...



The numbers will go up quite a bit by the end of this months. This is at least what I expect to happen, and this is what I predicted to happen, because, well, schools reopening and people going back to work from summer vacations.

But the rise in September, while significant, won't be the peak.October will see massive exponential rise in cases everywhere in Europe, as well as in the U.S....unless schools will be mostly online.


I repeat what I have said multiple times in the last weeks : if most schools stay open in person through October, if nation-wide lock-downs aren't in place by the end of October (and this is the very last possible moment in time that might stop the pandemic) and most people will go to work and use mass transit once the cold season starts (after mid-October usually is cold enough to lower the immune system), we will see how a pandemic really looks like.

What we had until now was a glimpse...



 Quoting: deplorable recollector

I assume you are talking here about the US specifically. But I also assume it will be similar for Europe, won't it?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78800305



Yes, same for Europe.


But it looks increasingly probable that schools will close earlier than mid-October, at least in Europe.
Anonymous Coward
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09/17/2020 07:51 AM
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Don't stress the RW contributions on the other thread ... I think most of us who are regulars there take his analyses with a huge grain of salt. I'm not sure what he has invested in trying to make things look better than they are, but it's a pattern, and we've all seen it. I don't think any of us looks to him for data analysis ... or, few do, in any event.

 Quoting: Doommonkey

Who is RW?

Anyway, I believe everyone should have a right to reach his/her own conclusions.

I am always suspicious of people telling me "don't listen to that guy,..."
Anonymous Coward
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09/17/2020 07:57 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Maybe it is time to start worrying now. I live in Belgium and they say this second wave will be worse than the first one as now, the coronavirus is everywhere. The same, I guess is true for most other countries.

What if the numbers really start to peak a few weeks from now? What if they go on climbing? What if this time, ECU's (emergence care units) REALLY get overwhelmed and again choices have to be made as to who is worth saving and who is not?

How will this affect society, the economy, people's income? Will there be many people losing their job? Maybe losing their homes, become homeless?

Maybe we should starting thinking in earnest about what the course of events could be in such a scenario - so as to avoid maximally to be taken by surprise.

And if possible, on a country per country basis. Other threads should be opened for this I assume.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward ...



The numbers will go up quite a bit by the end of this months. This is at least what I expect to happen, and this is what I predicted to happen, because, well, schools reopening and people going back to work from summer vacations.

But the rise in September, while significant, won't be the peak.October will see massive exponential rise in cases everywhere in Europe, as well as in the U.S....unless schools will be mostly online.


I repeat what I have said multiple times in the last weeks : if most schools stay open in person through October, if nation-wide lock-downs aren't in place by the end of October (and this is the very last possible moment in time that might stop the pandemic) and most people will go to work and use mass transit once the cold season starts (after mid-October usually is cold enough to lower the immune system), we will see how a pandemic really looks like.

What we had until now was a glimpse...




 Quoting: deplorable recollector

I assume you are talking here about the US specifically. But I also assume it will be similar for Europe, won't it?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78800305



Yes, same for Europe.


But it looks increasingly probable that schools will close earlier than mid-October, at least in Europe.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector

Most Belgian universities are opening under code orange rater than code yellow as directed by the authorities, and politicians are disapproving.

What are the European countries which will be least struck by this second wave do you think, OP?
Anonymous Coward
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09/17/2020 08:03 AM
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BTW, Belgian virologist together with several other experts like Erika Vlieghe (who is chief Infectious Diseases as the University Clinic in Antwerp) were kicked out from the special advisory panel because they were too critical of the, in their opinion, too relaxed treatment of the pandemic by the authorities.

I believe Minister of Health Maggie De Block (who is an MD herself) was pushing for them to be expelled. She was quoted saying virologists should not meddle with the politicians' jobs.
Anonymous Coward
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09/17/2020 08:04 AM
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Sorry, getting old...

"BTW, Belgian virologist together with several other"

"Belgian virologist Marc Van Ranst...."
Anonymous Coward
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09/17/2020 08:24 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
So checked in today and it was yet another record for daily infections in Czech 1674 this puts it on par with places like Spain and France per million of people (in this current phase). I’ll leave doing the updates for a while as I could be posting records everyday now. I’ll gather the weeks info and compile it next time.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79384438



When did you guys reopened the schools?


If it was September 14th, like other former commie countries, well, expect these numbers to be dwarfed in 2 weeks, because if these are the numbers before schools were reopened, it's pretty fucking bad.

1,500+ cases a day for a country of 11 million, before schools reopened, will lead to 4k+ cases / day by mid-October.

Such numbers are unsustainable by the healthcare system.


Czechia will have to lock-down before November...pretty much like everyone.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Here in Canada many of our schools are only paying lip service to masks and social distancing.
There is no real enforcement of the mask policy during school hours for students and teachers who refuse to wear them or wear them wrong.
The only thing that seems mandatory is that there are teachers at the exits making sure that as the students leave the school every one is wearing a mask. After all day of breathing on each other they must keep up appearances.
As well, the schools are largely not enforcing any kind of social distancing, children reportedly are still within normal desk distance, the kids have been back at school since Tuesday last week. The teachers and the school boards are pretending that they are doing everything but they are not as then they would have to sacrifice funding. Increasing social distancing and limiting students can only decrease student hours.
IF the per student hours threshold is crossed they lose money and rather than risk their paychecks they will just risk you. Nice.
Lockdowns are just around the corner I am sure and I doubt that they will be announced.
Everything will be fine and we will be called crazy until the very hour we are told to go home because of the emergency that is OUR fault.
Doommonkey
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09/17/2020 09:20 AM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
RW is a regular poster on the big COVID thread. He's also known as Wordsworth. He's convinced (among other things) that Spain has peaked in it's current surge.

Of course he's entitled to his opinions, and we (over there) do read and consider what he has to say. Historically, however, he has underestimated this virus, and been too hopeful in his conculsions, in MY opinion. Anyone is welcome to read what he has to say -- he posts a lot on that thread.

I spend a lot of time on that thread, and my observation is that most of the regulars are not quick to buy into his conclusions, though we do have discussions about them.

Honestly, I think it's best to take in all reasonable opinions (which means, for me, ignoring the virus deniers completely -- but considering the opinions of anyone who has put real research into understanding this) and form one's own conclusions. I simply commented on him in response to an earlier comment in this thread about his "trolling." I actually don't see it as trolling, personally... I just think he's overly optimistic more often than not, and interprets data in ways that tend to support his conclusions, though they not necessarily support the reality of what is going on. That's my opinion, which you are welcome to take or leave as you please.
Looks like freedom but it feels like death. It's something in between I guess... it's closing time.

Lenonard Cohen
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09/17/2020 09:34 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
I just want RW's nick, thanks.

Can you also post a link to "the big COVID thread"?

Thanks.
Doommonkey
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09/17/2020 09:36 AM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Personally, I think physical school reopening is a disaster in the making -- and I'm a teacher (at a university.) Had we not gone digital through the spring, I would actually probably have taken a leave of absence -- I wouldn't want to risk my own health, nor the health of my students ... and I could not, in good conscience, participate in classroom education. There is a LOT of pressure on schools to reopen... and if teachers choose not to go back, they might not qualify for unemployment, since the leave was voluntary (meaning, their job existed.)

I am blessed to work for a university that was sane enough to go digital fairly early in the fall semester, and we remain digital at least through spring. Honestly, digital teaching is a drag ... it's a lot more work for us than classroom teaching, and it's hard for the students, who are cranky and are more difficult to manage than usual ... but most of my colleagues are giving it our all, and trying to make the best experience possible for our students. The best students are embracing that, and also trying to contribute to a new way of learning and interacting.

In the US, if you leave your job or are laid off, chances are that you also lose your healthcare -- and most teachers (being very poorly paid all around) don't have much or any savings. We live paycheck to paycheck, and we couldn't begin to afford COBRA (continuation of healthcare, which is paid out of pocket; COBRA is incredibly expensive. (About the same as my monthly rent.) At least in CA, we could qualify for MediCal, if unemployed, so we wouldn't be left entirely without healthcare ... but it's a difficult system to navigate, and the coverage is minimal. It also takes a while to get enrolled in it, and involves a lot of paperwork.

The greed is not at the teacher level, nearly anywhere. It's higher up, with the administration. Yes, it's hard teaching digitally -- but I think most of us (who are not virus deniers) are willing to make the additional effort to do that, rather than risk our lives, the lives of our students, and the lives of anyone with whom we come in contact. In the SF Bay Area, almost all of us live with housemates, as it is impossible to live alone on a teacher's salary. Even with 3 housemates, and rent control from 2008, it's a struggle for me to make ends meet. So, we risk exposing our entire households if we return to work -- and this is how a pandemic can really get a foothold in a population.

Hope that sheds some light from the teacher side of things....
Looks like freedom but it feels like death. It's something in between I guess... it's closing time.

Lenonard Cohen
Doommonkey
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09/17/2020 09:38 AM

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The giant COVID thread is here: Thread: Covid19/WORLD:32.103.000/USA:7.140.000/DAMAGE P10036/D614G P10205/ FRANCE:PARIS & OTHER CITIES TO "HIGHEST SCARLET" ALERT LEVEL P10873 (Page 10793)
Looks like freedom but it feels like death. It's something in between I guess... it's closing time.

Lenonard Cohen
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09/17/2020 10:38 AM
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As I’m on here posting I’ll go ahead and add this. At the halfway point in the day, the tally for czech reads 1290 (which is the highest I’ve ever seen at the halfway point) (again) yesterday’s halfway point record was 965 and was an end tally of 1674.

So where the heck could that figure end up? In the 2k’s maybe? I don’t know as it’s new territory. Death rates are consistently higher than they have registered for months, so even if they go up, up, then down kind of style, overall they’re coming through proper now. ICU is building by the day. And all percentages are going up.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79385618



Around to 2k, yes, for today.


So, you guys reopened schools on September 1st...dang, no wonder the numbers are soaring.


This is bad, 4k / day by the end of this month (not by mid-October), unless schools start to close asap.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector



2,136 today for Czechia.


That is 16 days after schools reopened.



I will add Czechia on my watch list, until October 5th. I really want to see the impact of one month of schools on a country that was spared almost entirely in the first wave.


If Czechia numbers will rise all the way up to October 5th, and reach a daily case count of 5k min. to 6k max., they will lose control of the pandemic by October 15th.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Yes It made a record here yet again. Each day brings new surprises. Sobering estimate you’ve given there! I’m thinking just by the end of the week they will have to address it somehow, at least to save face to the public. Because looking back at the graph and numbers, they shut the whole place down for what is in comparison to today’s figures nothing. Now everything is open and it’s many many times worse. Very contradictory response, if you were to just take it at face value. This also bolsters the notion that the shut downs were a prep for other reasons, yet to be seen.

Before schools shut first. I wonder if they’ll do this again? Because nurseries stayed open a time after this, as they are part of the backbone of the economy allowing the parents to go out and work. If the nurseries are locked down, so then are many parents. Very pivotal period we are seeing here imo.
Guythu

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09/17/2020 11:32 AM
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As I’m on here posting I’ll go ahead and add this. At the halfway point in the day, the tally for czech reads 1290 (which is the highest I’ve ever seen at the halfway point) (again) yesterday’s halfway point record was 965 and was an end tally of 1674.

So where the heck could that figure end up? In the 2k’s maybe? I don’t know as it’s new territory. Death rates are consistently higher than they have registered for months, so even if they go up, up, then down kind of style, overall they’re coming through proper now. ICU is building by the day. And all percentages are going up.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79385618



Around to 2k, yes, for today.


So, you guys reopened schools on September 1st...dang, no wonder the numbers are soaring.


This is bad, 4k / day by the end of this month (not by mid-October), unless schools start to close asap.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector



2,136 today for Czechia.


That is 16 days after schools reopened.



I will add Czechia on my watch list, until October 5th. I really want to see the impact of one month of schools on a country that was spared almost entirely in the first wave.


If Czechia numbers will rise all the way up to October 5th, and reach a daily case count of 5k min. to 6k max., they will lose control of the pandemic by October 15th.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


New peaks in Czechia, Ukraine and France: COVID-19 daily bulletin

[link to newseu.cgtn.com (secure)]
Lady Jayne SmithModerator
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09/17/2020 12:29 PM

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bump
Fate whispers to the warrior

"You cannot withstand the storm"

and the warrior whispers back

"I am the storm"

INTJ:
Independent, original, analytical, and determined. Have an exceptional ability to turn theories into solid plans of action. Highly value knowledge, competence, and structure. Driven to derive meaning from their visions. Long-range thinkers. Have very high standards for their performance, and the performance of others. Natural leaders, but will follow if they trust existing leaders.

Life is karma and karma always reflects both past and present circumstance. Our time here is short, so choose carefully and behave well, for all of your tomorrows are presently being decided.

"A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool."
-- William Shakespeare, born April 23, 1564.

Follow. But! Follow only if ye be men of valor! For the entrance to this cave is guarded by a creature so foul, so cruel, that no man yet has fought with it... and lived! BONES of full fifty men lie *strewn* about its lair! So! Brave knights! If you do doubt your courage or your strength, come no further, for death awaits you all with nasty, big, pointy teeth...

KillerBunnyMask
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09/17/2020 01:34 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China
Thank you dp for the sweaden view.

Keep up the good work.





GLP