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CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 289

 
Leonero

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Italy
10/16/2020 02:13 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 289
UPDATES FROM ITALY

+ 10.010 new positive cases

+ 52 patients in ICU
[new total: 638 patients currently in ICU]

+ 382 patients hospitalized
[new total: 6.178 patients currently hospitalized]

+ 54 dead patients


Swab tests on 16th October: 150.377

[source]
[link to tg24.sky.it (secure)]


Personal notes:
One of my job colleagues is in quarantine and still waiting for a swab test because his partner tested positive (after a week passed staying in bed with high fever and breathing issues)

Two friends of mine tested positive today. They got infected at work.
One of them has fever, breathing issues and lost sense of smell and taste...
I report his words:
"I can't distinguish dog canned food from a lasagna... The only thing that I can feel in my mouth is the consistency of food that I eat..."


All the people tested positive (symptomatic) that I personally know are quarantined at home because hospitals will only accept patients with mild/severe symptoms or chronic diseases or elder...

I really have no words for what is happening in Italy.

"Contact tracing" measures don't work anymore...
My friends's relatives are still waiting for an appointment to undergo a swab test.
Covid-19 labs cannot process the huge amount of tests they are receiving these days.

Last Edited by Leonero on 10/16/2020 02:23 PM
Anonymous Coward
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10/16/2020 02:30 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 289
...

Covid-19 labs cannot process the huge amount of tests they are receiving these days.
 Quoting: Leonero


This summer the eurocovidtour was trending, now we see the results.
Gamechanger 2.0
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10/16/2020 03:12 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 289
Hi, Mr. Deplorable recollector.

I would like to inform you that you are becoming wildly popular in one of the most important Spanish forums. People are eagerly waiting for your next update and also want to know if you have any particular forecast for Spain.

I think Spain is a unique case in Europe, because it was hit most severely than any other European country and it is also the only country to have suffered a second wave during summer. Mild temperatures and a higher grade of pre-existing immunity can somehow stall this autumn/winter wave, methinks.

This is the particular thread in which Spanish forum users are discussing and sharing your updates:

[link to www.burbuja.info (secure)]

In case you're interested you might register and drop there and say a few words. We will be following your updates from GodlikeProductions in any case (which is also becoming popular in that forum).

Take care,

Spanish_guy
 Quoting: Spanish_guy



i think DR needs to make a counsulting company. im sure a lot of governments, companies, etc would gladly pay for his services.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78458551

Did any government or company ask DR a single question by now... even while they could have done so for free, they didn't.

Or did they?

Their experts know the numbers, graphs and statistics better than most of us here do. Yet they are letting it happen. What does this tell you?

Yesterday, on Dutch TV... they are going to close bars and restaurants for a month. The night before, vast numbers of customers in bars, negating and ignoring any and all pandemic regulation. Bar owner interviewed, says he's sorry, says he feels ashamed blabla.... but no one was fined! Not a single person!

In Belgium, virologist Steven Van Gucht on TV after some comments was ending with "I have full confidence (we will pull this through/we will succeed if we follow the regulations" (something of the sort) while avoiding looking directly at the camera - looking sideways at the floor in fact - and looking very bad, almost sick!

Many groups of people have been making sure for months the Coronavirus got spread as effectively as possible by behaving like what we here would call "retards" - organizing parties at home, attending super spreader events and doing everything without wearing facemasks or respecting any social distancing. I would not be surprised if there are people going around in much visited public areas (shops etc.), intentionally touching surfaces with hands and fingers.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79465269




The governments have the numbers, the projections and the set of measures that if implemented, will control the pandemic and will ensure the survival of the economy.

They KNOW what have to be done.


But, here is the issue. Or better, the issues.


The government have a ton of plans for a pandemic. But those plans are OLD, over 30 years old, and have never been updated.

The world changed dramatically in the last 30 years. The economy in 2020 and the economy in 1990 are different like day and night.


We are at the point where the full lock-downs plan is gathering dust on governments tables.

They have already decided to do anything else, but full lock-down...unless the situation changes to the point where full lock-downs are the last option.

No full lock-downs this month, I am 100% sure of that.

I am also almost 100% sure that there won't be any full lock-down in the first week of November.


But the way I see things unfolding, I am 50/50 on full lock-downs after first week of November, because it will be BAD.

Bad enough to scare the governments, and will get worse enough by mid-November, when there is going to be enough reasoning to activate the full lock-downs plans, all over Northern Hemisphere.


Will they actually do it?


I have no idea.


Will it matter if they wait until mid-November?


Not even a little bit.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


If I have this right? There is a state of emergency in czech til November 3rd. Imo they’ll wait til that date and if the r number plus infection rate isn’t at an acceptable level, they will then increase measures to deal with it.

There aren’t too many measures left to be taken, bar total lockdown. So that is a date I’d have pencilled in to see where this is going.

They’ve sort of told people straight. Saying “there will be great economical problems if we were to lock down like in the spring. So we will do everything to avoid it.” But it’s unavoidable. Yesterday clocked a new record here again for daily infection rates, high 9k’s. Today at the midway point it seems to be on par for another 9k reading in the morning. So nothing is changing yet, actually it’s still going up..
Hnry Bwmn
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10/16/2020 05:33 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 289
Well, this is going to be awful.

DR's work has been pretty spot on thus far.

With such a track record, his analysis must be taken very seriously.
 Quoting: Lady Jayne Smith

Well... how can we mitigate?

This is the ONLY thing to focus on from here on.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79465269


IF you could believe you have Not Already been exposed

}> See my Footnotes, yer Infukkted Already <{

The Best way to Not get inFukkted is

To Stay the Hell Away from ALL Humans, and animals.

"Disappear Into the Woods For Years"

Michael///KD0WSJ\\\HnryBwmn

"Pissed Off American Patriot"
Retired Union Millwright, Turbine Mechanic {I retired at 55}
General Class Radio Amateur KD0WSJ, >AKA "Wall Street Journal"<
{> I Identify Myself When I give Karma <}
I ONLY give GREEN KARMA
"Sleep is For the DED"

}> You Are Infected, You ARE Fukked <{
>>>Infukkted, my Newest Word<<<

I Speak Slowly, Say Little, A FuKK I Do Not Give

<Seeker of the Black Crown>
........."I AM the Storm".........

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^


"This is the harvest. Humanity is being sorted"


"It's Gonna be a Good Day Tater"
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

"I am a SpamTard Idiot !!??!!"
Serenity Now

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10/16/2020 09:29 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 289
DR, did you have a post that the US would hit 72K or 74K cases next week? Guythu is looking for it (and can't find it) to make it a part of the record on the big thread.

Thank you in advance. :)

[link to www.wsj.com (secure)]

EDIT: Never mind, he found it!

Last Edited by Serenity Now on 10/16/2020 09:34 PM
Waiting for the inflection point of no return....
Anonymous Coward
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10/17/2020 05:41 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 289
DR, did you have a post that the US would hit 72K or 74K cases next week? Guythu is looking for it (and can't find it) to make it a part of the record on the big thread.

Thank you in advance. :)

[link to www.wsj.com (secure)]

EDIT: Never mind, he found it!
 Quoting: Serenity Now


I'm not DR but I will reply to this

The article you linked there has the date of July 30 displayed on it. I did post in the main thread yesterday that the reported US new cases for Friday(yesterday) was 68k.


And now 68k cases for Friday. Surely set to break the record sometime next week.




 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79471260
miabelieves

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10/17/2020 07:25 AM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 289
INDIA OVER 7.000.000 CASES ...

INDIA EN ROUTE TO PASS THE UNITED STATES SOON ... MATTER OF WEEKS OR A MONTH AT THIS RATE...


siren2siren2
 Quoting: Dangerous Times



Highly unlikely, for official numbers.


India hit a plateau, the U.S. is about to get wild weasel again (in like 2 weeks, the U.S. will hit 70k+ / day again).


In reality tho, India is way fucking above the U.S.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


^ Found it. Posted on 10/11

I can’t find DR’a post here or on his thread about the US hitting 74k (or was it 72k) by next week.

Daily U.S. Coronavirus Cases Climb Back Above 70,000

[link to www.wsj.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 46984117

 Quoting: Guythu



Jeez Louise, DR did you expect the 70k/day n 2 weeks from 10/11. If so, US is moving faster.
Hold on to your undies, it's gonna be a hell of a ride
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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Romania
10/17/2020 07:39 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 289
INDIA OVER 7.000.000 CASES ...

INDIA EN ROUTE TO PASS THE UNITED STATES SOON ... MATTER OF WEEKS OR A MONTH AT THIS RATE...


siren2siren2
 Quoting: Dangerous Times



Highly unlikely, for official numbers.


India hit a plateau, the U.S. is about to get wild weasel again (in like 2 weeks, the U.S. will hit 70k+ / day again).


In reality tho, India is way fucking above the U.S.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


^ Found it. Posted on 10/11

I can’t find DR’a post here or on his thread about the US hitting 74k (or was it 72k) by next week.

Daily U.S. Coronavirus Cases Climb Back Above 70,000

[link to www.wsj.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 46984117

 Quoting: Guythu



Jeez Louise, DR did you expect the 70k/day n 2 weeks from 10/11. If so, US is moving faster.
 Quoting: miabelieves



Not really.

I expected 70k+ / day on the assumption of a median testing capacity in the U.S., which is about 800k.

When the U.S. slaps 1 million+ tests a day, obviously the cases are higher, or seems to accelerate faster then I predicted.

Last Edited by deplorable recollector on 10/17/2020 07:40 AM
Gamechanger 2.0
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Czech Republic
10/17/2020 08:45 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 289
11,102 new infections for czech yesterday new record
Anonymous Coward
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10/17/2020 10:50 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 289
Here some facts instead of BS:

[link to twitter.com (secure)]
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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Romania
10/17/2020 11:20 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 289
Here some facts instead of BS:

[link to twitter.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76989381


After watching the first 23 seconds, I realized that you, and most people, are basically idiots.


Posting bullshit and calling in truth.


Covid-19 is "just a flu virus".


Sure it is.


epiclol
Red Hot Chilean Pepe
Resident Chilean GLPer

User ID: 79429161
Chile
10/17/2020 11:22 AM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 289
Here some facts instead of BS:

[link to twitter.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76989381


A committee of deluded people, that’s your argument?
All great truths begin as Blasphemies.
G.B.S.

GLP is like a diamond mine of information, in the sense that you have to shovel mountains of crap to find the diamonds, but it's still worth the pain.
Guythu

User ID: 46984117
United States
10/17/2020 11:31 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 289
...



Highly unlikely, for official numbers.


India hit a plateau, the U.S. is about to get wild weasel again (in like 2 weeks, the U.S. will hit 70k+ / day again).


In reality tho, India is way fucking above the U.S.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


^ Found it. Posted on 10/11

I can’t find DR’a post here or on his thread about the US hitting 74k (or was it 72k) by next week.

Daily U.S. Coronavirus Cases Climb Back Above 70,000

[link to www.wsj.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 46984117

 Quoting: Guythu



Jeez Louise, DR did you expect the 70k/day n 2 weeks from 10/11. If so, US is moving faster.
 Quoting: miabelieves



Not really.

I expected 70k+ / day on the assumption of a median testing capacity in the U.S., which is about 800k.

When the U.S. slaps 1 million+ tests a day, obviously the cases are higher, or seems to accelerate faster then I predicted.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


DR-
An AC, rightly so, pointed out that the article’s date was from July.

Last Edited by Guythu on 10/17/2020 11:38 AM
Red Hot Chilean Pepe
Resident Chilean GLPer

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Chile
10/17/2020 11:36 AM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 289
Here some facts instead of BS:

[link to twitter.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76989381


After watching the first 23 seconds, I realized that you, and most people, are basically idiots.


Posting bullshit and calling in truth.


Covid-19 is "just a flu virus".


Sure it is.


epiclol
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


I watched the entire piece, they are of the “pcr tests are false” crowd, un believable, was painful to watch.
All great truths begin as Blasphemies.
G.B.S.

GLP is like a diamond mine of information, in the sense that you have to shovel mountains of crap to find the diamonds, but it's still worth the pain.
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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10/17/2020 11:48 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 289
Official numbers...cases...deaths...they do not match reality.

Hospitalizations and ICU cases do match reality, even if both are lagging behind cases.


In my last update, I talked about excess deaths.

Thankfully, we live in a world where technology shortens the time between gathering and releasing information. We no longer have to wait years before we know what happened.


Excess deaths, during a crisis, are the real picture. When you have a significantly higher number of deaths, during a crisis, the only logical explanation is that those excess deaths were caused by what or who is responsible for the crisis.


The current crisis is caused by a virus.


When we are facing excess deaths that are 10 times higher then the official number of deaths, it is obvious that we are FAR from detecting enough cases, we are FAR from detecting the contacts of those cases, so, we are FAR from containing this pandemic.


Actually, we are very close to completely lose whatever control we still have left over the spread of the virus.


The real numbers are staggering, and because any number I would post here is unbelievable for pretty much anyone, except few who really understand what is happening, I will paint a picture of how the official numbers will look in about 17-18 days from today, in Europe and the U.S.


We can expect Europe to double the number of official cases, and get to around to 300k daily cases, by November 4th.

We can expect the U.S. to have around 50% increase in daily cases by November 4th, to around 105k daily cases.


Europe is about to see what exponential really means. The U.S. won't be far behind.


I expect total loss of control over the pandemic in Europe by the end of this month, and in the U.S. by mid-November.


The real numbers are completely bonkers, many times higher then what official numbers are.



The only reason why I am still talking about the official numbers is because those are the numbers people are looking at.

If Europe hits 300k daily cases in the next 17-18 days, the pandemic will be out of control. If the real number of cases would be around the official number, the pandemic will be under total control.

However, those 300k cases, if reached by Nov.4th in Europe, will actually mean millions of daily cases...and this means that the pandemic is off charts and out of control.


We, in Europe, STILL have time to stop a raging pandemic. But time is running extremely short. I give Europe a maximum of 10 days to stop this, and the U.S. about 21 days.

Europe must enter a full lock-down no later then October 27th, and the U.S. no longer then November 7th. I am repeating what I have said in January, giving last possible dates to avoid a catastrophe.


These are short time predictions, because time is running short.



Let's see if next week is going to bring some reality check on the governments.


But don't hold your breath. They have already betting on the wrong horses.

I just hope that next week (which will make this week look good), will scare them enough to start realizing, before it is too late, that what they think it will work, it's not working.
BeelzeBob

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10/17/2020 12:01 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 289
It's going to come down to Sophie's Choice situation where the decision whether or not tie up resources on treatment of COVID patients will need to be made.

It doesn't necessarily have to be permanent decision, but full societal collapse to save a few would be the wrong choice.
"Is everyone okay?" "Well, the fucking hippies aren’t. That’s for goddamn sure." -- Rick Dalton
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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10/17/2020 12:10 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 289
It's going to come down to Sophie's Choice situation where the decision whether or not tie up resources on treatment of COVID patients will need to be made.

It doesn't necessarily have to be permanent decision, but full societal collapse to save a few would be the wrong choice.
 Quoting: BeelzeBob



I am having problems understanding what you are saying.


Is is that we should avoid full lock-downs?
BeelzeBob

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10/17/2020 12:27 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 289
It's going to come down to Sophie's Choice situation where the decision whether or not tie up resources on treatment of COVID patients will need to be made.

It doesn't necessarily have to be permanent decision, but full societal collapse to save a few would be the wrong choice.
 Quoting: BeelzeBob



I am having problems understanding what you are saying.


Is is that we should avoid full lock-downs?
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


If I am understanding correctly, the crux of the problem is an over saturation of resources from the shear volume of people that end up needing medical care such as hospitalizations, ventilators, ICU etc.

This in turn causes lack of availability problems for other people with non-COVID related illnesses. So doctors, nurses, hospitals, urgent care are all tied up and people die from other causes on top of COVID related deaths.

The problem is further exacerbated due to health care workers getting sick and overwhelming other staff.

At some point, whether lockdowns or not, it is looking like we could end up at a point where we can't treat everyone that needs it no matter what. So if a hospital can handle 300 patients and 500 COVID patients need a bed, what do you do?

Bear in mind, accident victims, heart attacks, broken bone patients all will need care too.

Sophie's choice was a novel where a mother going into a concentration camp must decide which of her children die, the son or the daughter. If she chooses neither, they both die. It is a decision with no go choices.

One option that would alleviate the healthcare problem, is to have a Phase 99 where those with COVID as the primary symptom are no longer accepted in hospitals. This would be implemented at certain thresholds so as to keep healthcare functioning.

As morbid as it is you would need to set up hospice centers to deal with those needing critical treatment, and maybe you come back out of it, and maybe you don't, but the suffering could be minimized.
"Is everyone okay?" "Well, the fucking hippies aren’t. That’s for goddamn sure." -- Rick Dalton
Anonymous Coward
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10/17/2020 01:32 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 289
Watch Ireland . Big meetings today around a 6 week level 5 shutdown. It was knocked back last week but that EU meeting yesterday has lit a major fire under them. Country currently waiting to hear what they decide..
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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10/17/2020 01:37 PM
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@ BeelzeBob.

"If I am understanding correctly, the crux of the problem is an over saturation of resources from the shear volume of people that end up needing medical care such as hospitalizations, ventilators, ICU etc.

This in turn causes lack of availability problems for other people with non-COVID related illnesses. So doctors, nurses, hospitals, urgent care are all tied up and people die from other causes on top of COVID related deaths.

The problem is further exacerbated due to health care workers getting sick and overwhelming other staff.
"


Everything you have said above is 100% correct. However, this is just the medical side of the equation.


"At some point, whether lockdowns or not, it is looking like we could end up at a point where we can't treat everyone that needs it no matter what. ".


This is 100% correct, but also 100% incorrect.

Lock-downs will ALWAYS, ALWAYS, ALWAYS, save more lives, then lack of lock-downs.

I have said, multiple times, and last time just today, that full lock-downs have to implemented to avoid a catastrophe.

Now, a catastrophe is a catastrophe, and it can mean 1,000 dead or 10,000,000 dead.

"So if a hospital can handle 300 patients and 500 COVID patients need a bed, what do you do?"


You do everything in your power NOT TO GET TO THAT POINT. When we face a pandemic, and we want to avoid full lock-downs, we will face such a scenario where 500 people need hospitalization, but the hospital can handle 300...in the INITIAL PHASE of an out of control pandemic.

In a matter of days, that 300 bed bed hospital will face 600-700 patients...a week later 1,000...and so on, because THIS IS WHAT a pandemic does.


"One option that would alleviate the healthcare problem, is to have a Phase 99 where those with COVID as the primary symptom are no longer accepted in hospitals. This would be implemented at certain thresholds so as to keep healthcare functioning.

As morbid as it is you would need to set up hospice centers to deal with those needing critical treatment, and maybe you come back out of it, and maybe you don't, but the suffering could be minimized.
"


This option is out of the question. A life is a life, no matter what the disease that threatens it.

Again, we have to do all we can NOT to get to the point where doctors will HAVE to CHOOSE who lives and who dies, because they will CHOOSE those with best chances of survival, regardless of WHY they are brought to the hospital.

A grave car accident 60 yr old victim will be left to DIE, and save a 30 yr old Covid-19 patient. Or a 30 yr old victim of a car accident will be saved, and leave a 60 yrs old Covid-19 to DIE.

We don't know WHO is going to be chosen to live and who is going to be left for dead.


What we all know is that we HAVE TO AVOID getting there.



I am one of the people who believes, strongly, that full lock-downs are the only way to save us, if everything else fails.

Most people have this belief that full lock-downs will cause more deaths and will also cause the economy to collapse.


This belief is a wrong belief. Those people don't understand what an out of control pandemic actually means, but they are about to see, because we are on the brink of losing control.

The economy will 100% collapse if there are no lock-downs. The economy have high chances NOT to collapse if lock-downs are in place.


Yes, the economy will be devastated by another lock-down, but WE CAN REBUILD relatively quickly. Couple years, maybe 3-4 years, at most.

The economy will be even more devastated if no lock-downs, and the time to rebuild will be much longer. MUCH longer.



This is what people are unable to understand : the direct relationship between tens of millions of dead and hundreds of millions sick, in a matter of 3-4 short months, and the economic impact of such numbers.

People BELIEVE that IT WILL NOT GET THERE, because all they have SEEN by now is not that bad. Yes, it is NOT that bad, because a SIMPLE THING that happened in March and April : the full lock-downs.

We didn't had it that bad, exactly because of Spring lock-downs.


But to assume that NOW we will STILL not have it that bad, when the situation is VASTLY different, it's sheer stupidity.

We aren't in March, where the virus was affecting just some areas in some countries. We are now having a virus affecting MOST AREAS in MOST COUNTRIES.

We aren't in March, where the virus had barely mutated couple dozens of times. We are now having thousands of mutations of the virus.

We aren't in March, where schools were closed BEFORE the lock-down started. We are now 6-7 weeks with schools OPEN. I can't stress enough HOW STUPIDLY FUCKED UP was the decision to open schools.

We aren't in March, just weeks away from warmer weather and Sun activity going higher and higher. We are now facing FIVE MONTHS of cold and low Sun activity.


We BARELY dodged the bullet in March, but people don't see it.

And now, considering ALL the differences from March, to think that we are going to see the SAME outcome of the pandemic in May, it's just INSANITY.



The key element here is understanding what I have said since January : we cannot survive this pandemic without SACRIFICES.

Sadly, most people STILL BELIEVE (and this is what it will fuck up big time) that we CAN do it w/o sacrifices.


We are rapidly approaching the point where the ONLY sacrifice we can choose is a full, 4 months long, lock-down.

If we get PAST that point, we will sacrifice MUCH MORE then the economy.


We don't need to face a Sophie's choice (I know what it is, you are not the first person that thinks I don't).

Can we avoid a Sophie's choice with bars and restaurants closed, and stupid ass night curfews?

No, we cannot. And this will be crystal clear in a matter of 2 to 3 weeks.


When this will become crystal clear, what is NEXT?

The only logical step : full lock-downs, whether we like it or not.


We are at the crossroads : sacrifice the economy and save society, as a WHOLE, or choose the money god and destroy our civilization.


When you think that ALL we had to sacrifice was international and national travel and tourism, back in February, and avoid ALL this shit that happened to date...it's really sad.


When you don't have the guts to cut your infected leg behind the knee, and survive, you get to the point where you have to cut both legs and both hands, and HOPE it is enough.


We are almost at that point.

Last Edited by deplorable recollector on 10/17/2020 01:40 PM
Anonymous Coward
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Italy
10/17/2020 01:50 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 289
Made the law find the loophole

"Let's anticipate the nightlife of Bari at 19", the proposal of the old Bari pubs: discounts and new opening hours
[link to translate.google.it (secure)]

Bar in Catanzaro bypasses the curfew: it closes at midnight and reopens a quarter of an hour later
[link to translate.google.it (secure)]


I almost lost hope
BeelzeBob

User ID: 918411
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10/17/2020 02:33 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 289
@ BeelzeBob.

"If I am understanding correctly, the crux of the problem is an over saturation of resources from the shear volume of people that end up needing medical care such as hospitalizations, ventilators, ICU etc.

This in turn causes lack of availability problems for other people with non-COVID related illnesses. So doctors, nurses, hospitals, urgent care are all tied up and people die from other causes on top of COVID related deaths.

The problem is further exacerbated due to health care workers getting sick and overwhelming other staff.
"


Everything you have said above is 100% correct. However, this is just the medical side of the equation.


"At some point, whether lockdowns or not, it is looking like we could end up at a point where we can't treat everyone that needs it no matter what. ".


This is 100% correct, but also 100% incorrect.

Lock-downs will ALWAYS, ALWAYS, ALWAYS, save more lives, then lack of lock-downs.

I have said, multiple times, and last time just today, that full lock-downs have to implemented to avoid a catastrophe.

Now, a catastrophe is a catastrophe, and it can mean 1,000 dead or 10,000,000 dead.

"So if a hospital can handle 300 patients and 500 COVID patients need a bed, what do you do?"


You do everything in your power NOT TO GET TO THAT POINT. When we face a pandemic, and we want to avoid full lock-downs, we will face such a scenario where 500 people need hospitalization, but the hospital can handle 300...in the INITIAL PHASE of an out of control pandemic.

In a matter of days, that 300 bed bed hospital will face 600-700 patients...a week later 1,000...and so on, because THIS IS WHAT a pandemic does.


"One option that would alleviate the healthcare problem, is to have a Phase 99 where those with COVID as the primary symptom are no longer accepted in hospitals. This would be implemented at certain thresholds so as to keep healthcare functioning.

As morbid as it is you would need to set up hospice centers to deal with those needing critical treatment, and maybe you come back out of it, and maybe you don't, but the suffering could be minimized.
"


This option is out of the question. A life is a life, no matter what the disease that threatens it.

Again, we have to do all we can NOT to get to the point where doctors will HAVE to CHOOSE who lives and who dies, because they will CHOOSE those with best chances of survival, regardless of WHY they are brought to the hospital.

A grave car accident 60 yr old victim will be left to DIE, and save a 30 yr old Covid-19 patient. Or a 30 yr old victim of a car accident will be saved, and leave a 60 yrs old Covid-19 to DIE.

We don't know WHO is going to be chosen to live and who is going to be left for dead.


What we all know is that we HAVE TO AVOID getting there.



I am one of the people who believes, strongly, that full lock-downs are the only way to save us, if everything else fails.

Most people have this belief that full lock-downs will cause more deaths and will also cause the economy to collapse.


This belief is a wrong belief. Those people don't understand what an out of control pandemic actually means, but they are about to see, because we are on the brink of losing control.

The economy will 100% collapse if there are no lock-downs. The economy have high chances NOT to collapse if lock-downs are in place.


Yes, the economy will be devastated by another lock-down, but WE CAN REBUILD relatively quickly. Couple years, maybe 3-4 years, at most.

The economy will be even more devastated if no lock-downs, and the time to rebuild will be much longer. MUCH longer.



This is what people are unable to understand : the direct relationship between tens of millions of dead and hundreds of millions sick, in a matter of 3-4 short months, and the economic impact of such numbers.

People BELIEVE that IT WILL NOT GET THERE, because all they have SEEN by now is not that bad. Yes, it is NOT that bad, because a SIMPLE THING that happened in March and April : the full lock-downs.

We didn't had it that bad, exactly because of Spring lock-downs.


But to assume that NOW we will STILL not have it that bad, when the situation is VASTLY different, it's sheer stupidity.

We aren't in March, where the virus was affecting just some areas in some countries. We are now having a virus affecting MOST AREAS in MOST COUNTRIES.

We aren't in March, where the virus had barely mutated couple dozens of times. We are now having thousands of mutations of the virus.

We aren't in March, where schools were closed BEFORE the lock-down started. We are now 6-7 weeks with schools OPEN. I can't stress enough HOW STUPIDLY FUCKED UP was the decision to open schools.

We aren't in March, just weeks away from warmer weather and Sun activity going higher and higher. We are now facing FIVE MONTHS of cold and low Sun activity.


We BARELY dodged the bullet in March, but people don't see it.

And now, considering ALL the differences from March, to think that we are going to see the SAME outcome of the pandemic in May, it's just INSANITY.



The key element here is understanding what I have said since January : we cannot survive this pandemic without SACRIFICES.

Sadly, most people STILL BELIEVE (and this is what it will fuck up big time) that we CAN do it w/o sacrifices.


We are rapidly approaching the point where the ONLY sacrifice we can choose is a full, 4 months long, lock-down.

If we get PAST that point, we will sacrifice MUCH MORE then the economy.


We don't need to face a Sophie's choice (I know what it is, you are not the first person that thinks I don't).

Can we avoid a Sophie's choice with bars and restaurants closed, and stupid ass night curfews?

No, we cannot. And this will be crystal clear in a matter of 2 to 3 weeks.


When this will become crystal clear, what is NEXT?

The only logical step : full lock-downs, whether we like it or not.


We are at the crossroads : sacrifice the economy and save society, as a WHOLE, or choose the money god and destroy our civilization.


When you think that ALL we had to sacrifice was international and national travel and tourism, back in February, and avoid ALL this shit that happened to date...it's really sad.


When you don't have the guts to cut your infected leg behind the knee, and survive, you get to the point where you have to cut both legs and both hands, and HOPE it is enough.


We are almost at that point.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


I don't disagree that full lockdowns will slow the pandemic and I get your sense of rage for the governmental decisions that have been made so far but do you really think they will do the right thing now?

I believe the Sophie's Choice may come to us one way or another. The issue remains that if you have more sick than there are resources to handle them, then those on the ground (nurses and doctors) will be making these decisions on the fly, if there are no policies in place.

I think Sophie's Choice is unavoidable because:

1 - Your forecasts have been eerily accurate, almost to the point of making suspicious that this is all scripted and you've seen the script. I'm not accusing that, it just something I considered at one point...so pretty impressive modeling on your part.

2 - After watching the governments in action and their fear of losing the economy, along with people's resistance to lockdowns, they will not close the barn door until all the horses are gone. If full lockdowns come, they will be too late.

Add those two together and you get a ClusterFuck, or said more politely a CharlieFox. It is not my desire to avoid the lockdowns, I'm just predicting ongoing government inaction until it is too late and even then the public resistance may complicate it further and delay it until military gets involved.
"Is everyone okay?" "Well, the fucking hippies aren’t. That’s for goddamn sure." -- Rick Dalton
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 77866675
United States
10/17/2020 02:52 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 289
Here some facts instead of BS:

[link to twitter.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76989381


After watching the first 23 seconds, I realized that you, and most people, are basically idiots.


Posting bullshit and calling in truth.


Covid-19 is "just a flu virus".


Sure it is.


epiclol
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


PCR test are hoax - you should know it.
You are fearmonger and boor.
deplorable recollector  (OP)

User ID: 73110508
Romania
10/17/2020 02:55 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 289
I see where you are getting it BB.


And you are right, a Sophie's choice might be unavoidable, and it might actually happen.


I just hope that next week is going to be sobering enough for the governments to avoid getting us to the Sophie's choice point.


My voice is not singular. There are many who are saying the exact same thing as I do : "Do not get us past the point of no return".


I believe the governments are about to make a grave mistake, unless this is a carefully design plan, for an outcome I cannot, as a sane person, see it.


This is where I stand now : if we won't see a dramatic change in major governments public messaging, by the end of next week, from "we have to avoid lock-downs at all price" to "lock-downs are the last option, but we have to consider it"...I think that Europe will be past the point of no return by early November, and the U.S. by mid-November.


But I still want to keep my hope that by the end of next week, the governments will change their approach to lock-downs.

I do not think the governments will choose the right path. I have always said that.

I just hope they will.


Will see by next Saturday/Sunday.

Last Edited by deplorable recollector on 10/17/2020 02:58 PM
Pillar of Poland

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Poland
10/17/2020 02:58 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 289
Slovakia to test all residents for Covid-19 .What's your opinion about this ?
xtrasolar

User ID: 79399635
10/17/2020 03:09 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 289
I see where you are getting it BB.


And you are right, a Sophie's choice might be unavoidable, and it might actually happen.


I just hope that next week is going to be sobering enough for the governments to avoid getting us to the Sophie's choice point.


My voice is not singular. There are many who are saying the exact same thing as I do : "Do not get us past the point of no return".


I believe the governments are about to make a grave mistake, unless this is a carefully design plan, for an outcome I cannot, as a sane person, see it.


This is where I stand now : if we won't see a dramatic change in major governments public messaging, by the end of next week, from "we have to avoid lock-downs at all price" to "lock-downs are the last option, but we have to consider it"...I think that Europe will be past the point of no return by early November, and the U.S. by mid-November.


But I still want to keep my hope that by the end of next week, the governments will change their approach to lock-downs.

I do not think the governments will choose the right path. I have always said that.

I just hope they will.


Will see by next Saturday/Sunday.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector

Belgian Virologist Van Gucht said. “If that system fails, a lockdown is the only thing left.”"

[link to www.brusselstimes.com (secure)]
It's not Economics 101 it is Economics for dummies, you cannot print money based on nothing:- Gerald Celente
xtrasolar

User ID: 79399635
10/17/2020 03:13 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 289
I see where you are getting it BB.


And you are right, a Sophie's choice might be unavoidable, and it might actually happen.


I just hope that next week is going to be sobering enough for the governments to avoid getting us to the Sophie's choice point.


My voice is not singular. There are many who are saying the exact same thing as I do : "Do not get us past the point of no return".


I believe the governments are about to make a grave mistake, unless this is a carefully design plan, for an outcome I cannot, as a sane person, see it.


This is where I stand now : if we won't see a dramatic change in major governments public messaging, by the end of next week, from "we have to avoid lock-downs at all price" to "lock-downs are the last option, but we have to consider it"...I think that Europe will be past the point of no return by early November, and the U.S. by mid-November.


But I still want to keep my hope that by the end of next week, the governments will change their approach to lock-downs.

I do not think the governments will choose the right path. I have always said that.

I just hope they will.


Will see by next Saturday/Sunday.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector

Belgian Virologist Van Gucht said. “If that system fails, a lockdown is the only thing left.”"

[link to www.brusselstimes.com (secure)]
 Quoting: xtrasolar

These supports your projection of lockdown by next week
It's not Economics 101 it is Economics for dummies, you cannot print money based on nothing:- Gerald Celente
deplorable recollector  (OP)

User ID: 73110508
Romania
10/17/2020 03:13 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 289
Slovakia to test all residents for Covid-19 .What's your opinion about this ?
 Quoting: Pillar of Poland



Well, they are doing it in 2 series, on 2 week-ends, 24-25th October and 31st October-1st of November.


I think that this is both a political move, a necessary move, but ultimately, it won't be possible.

Slovakia is not China.


Let's say that they can actually do it. Obviously, they will use rapid testing, and not RT-PCR. As flawed as RT-PCR testing is (still gives like 15% false results, both positive and negative), rapid testing is even worse, with up to 40% false results.


But, let's say that do RT-PCR, and not rapid testing. I have already assumed 2 BIG things that won't happen : that they can do it, and that they use RT-PCR tests.


So, they do this. They test everyone in 2 week-ends. RT_PCR testing.


How long will it take until the results come back for ALL tests? ALL 4.5 million of them?

Based on their daily testing capacity of 15k tests...it will take around 300 days.


Let's say that they DOUBLE their testing capacity...150 days.



So, what I ultimately think about this?


Pure political BULLSHIT.
Pillar of Poland

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Poland
10/17/2020 03:17 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 289
No these aren't PCR tests .These are antigen covid tests .Results are in 15 minutes
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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Romania
10/17/2020 03:19 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 289
No these aren't PCR tests .These are antigen covid tests .Results are in 15 minutes
 Quoting: Pillar of Poland


Yeah, so it is clearly pure political B.S.


Antigen tests are HIGHLY unreliable.





GLP