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CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 308

 
ParamedicUK

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United Kingdom
10/22/2020 08:40 AM
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...


And we wait with a mixture of fear, dread and grim curiosity.
 Quoting: ParamedicUK


Is it just me or do others feel it’s moving much slower than Feb/Mar - maybe that’s down to the partial measures just slowing the exponential growth at the beginning - then bang!!!
 Quoting: lightning1977


I really don't see it going slow, I think is going much faster, but that most people are in denial, and media is also reporting it with less intensity than in March/April.
 Quoting: ParamedicUK


Certainly less media coverage and more political banter over it.

However admissions are not as exponential as in March?
lol79

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10/22/2020 09:06 AM
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Switzerland, an other nail in the coffin?

The government decided today, that they don't consider to impose a circuit breaker, or a lockdown.

" they talk about a slowdown!"whatever

While cases on the rise, hospitals constantly filling, the infection rate is aprox. 20% this week...
They prefer to sleep, and to wait, and to watch till next midweek, do they really think this trend is gonna change with the measures they imposed last sunday?

Oh, and finally, they are confrontated with this...( about the aerosols and it's distance)

( link in german ) [link to www.20min.ch (secure)]

yeah it's old bullshit we now till march or so?burnit

And for shure they are going to ignore this again.

I feel like in the wrong movie.... it's just insane,
like mouth of madness
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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Romania
10/22/2020 09:20 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 308
I am going to post the update earlier than usual, because I have some shit to do in the evening.


This update is largely about numbers.


After looking at pretty much every significant country, from the early onset of the pandemic, I managed to establish a theoretical correlation between official numbers, real numbers, number of tests, the thresholds that are reached in positivity, what measures have to be taken and when.


Obviously there will be differences between countries, because every country have its specifics, but generally speaking, I think I managed to get to numbers that can and should be considered as a guideline.


Back in the Spring, based on my model, the real number of infected people was 8 to 10 times (as a median number) bigger then the official number of cases, mainly because the testing was pretty damn low.


Since then, I managed to calculate a much closer value to reality, that is different for each threshold of positivity.


I have set 6 thresholds : 1%, 3%, 5%, 10%, 15% and 20% of positive tests, in the official number of tests.


Another number that I have calculated (as a minimum required) is the number of tests that have to be done, in order to detect as many cases as possible, and have some control on the spread.


That number is 1,000 tests per 1,000,000 people per day. This number is enough up to a 3% positivity, and in certain countries, with good contact tracing, it is enough even up to 5% positivity.

Up to 3% positivity, all things should be normal, and masks should be RECOMMENDED in enclosed spaces (not homes, nurseries, schools, etc.), like workplaces, shops, etc.

Once a country reaches 3% positivity, and doesn't have a good contact tracing capability (the vast majority of countries don't), the number of tests should be increased to 1,500 / 1 mil. people / day.

Masks should be mandatory, not recommended, events and gatherings should be limited to under 100 people outdoors and 50 indoors, schools should prepare for on-line classes.


Once a country reaches 5% positivity, the testing should increase to 2,000 / 1 mil. people / day, to keep the pace with the infection.

Masks should be mandatory in workplaces and schools, as well as all the other places mentioned earlier. Bars, pubs, restaurants capacity should be capped to 50% inside. Transport should be also limited, but it is impossible to do it in a large urban area.

Also, when reaching 5% positivity, most testing should be done in large urban areas, for obvious reasons.


The threshold of 5% positivity is probably the most important one, and if this threshold is maintained or rises, in the conditions of 2,000 tests / 1 mil. people / day, the country that is in this position, should prepare for harsher restrictions.

At 5%, contact tracing becomes difficult, for most countries.


If the measures I have mentioned earlier do not work (for various reasons), and the country is heading to 10% positivity in official testing, the control over the spread is about to be lost.

Simultaneously, when reaching 10%, a country should do the following :

-All measures in place will be maintained.
-Schools should close, nation-wide.
-Testing capacity increased to at least 2,500 tests / 1 mil. people / day. 3,000 is better, but pretty damn hard to do for most countries.
-Bars, pubs, restaurants, hair and nail saloons, other non-essentials should close until the positivity drop again to 5% or bellow. Not 2 weeks, not 17 days, not any arbitrary numbers some politicians come up with.
-All events and gatherings (including religious) should be suspended.
-International and national travel limited to essential travel only.


To understand what 10% positivity means, at 2,500 tests / 1 mil. people, I will use the U.S. and Czechia as examples. A big country vs a small country, but not as small as to miss certain specifics (like large urban areas, tourism, international travel connections, etc.).

Both the U.S. and Czechia are capable, at this moment, to make 3,000 tests / 1 mil. people / day, the U.S. with 975,000 tests / day and Czechia with roughly 30,000 tests / day.


Now I will specify the correlation between the positivity from official tests and the real number of infected, for the situation where we are NOW, and not in the spring.

At 1% positivity in official testing, the real number is just slightly higher. Contact tracing is a non-issue.

At 3%, the real number is significantly higher, but not double then offcial number of cases. Contact tracing, as long as the number of tests is increased to 1,500/ 1 mil./ day is a non-issue.

At 5%, the real number of infected is double or higher, as long as the number of tests is reaching 2,000 / 1 mil. / day. If it's less, contact tracing becomes an issue. Lots of cases are going undetected.

At 10%, the real number is about 3 times higher, as long as the number of tests is 2,500-3,000 / 1 mil. / day. Contact tracing becomes difficult for every country, no matter which country it is.


Now, on the U.S. and Czechia example, when they reach 10% positivity in official testing, and the real numbers.

The U.S. would have 97.5k official cases / day, Czechia 3,000 cases / day. The real number of infected would be close to 300k for the U.S. and 9k for Czechia.

Assuming a good contact tracing, assuming that the required measures are in place and assuming that a large part of the population do abide, the trend will be reversed in 2 to 3 weeks.

Czechia did not took the necessary measures when they reached 3,000 cases / day ( 9,000 in reality). They did it at almost 10k cases / day, and only implemented PARTIALLY the measures that should have in place.

Assuming a contact tracing that is able to track the ALL the contacts of 3,000 official cases, and that number is usually 4-5 contacts / case / 2 weeks, as a median numbers, Czechia would be capable to track up to 15k people, related to those 3,000 cases they found.

However, they will MISS another 6,000 cases from testing, and those 6,000 cases contacts would amount to 24-30k people, that Czechia won't detect...because they are contacts of undetected cases through official testing.


At 10% positivity, assuming 3,000 tests / 1 mil. / day, a country, ANY country contact tracing become irrelevant. The majority of the infected people are not tested, and the contacts of the official cases are significantly less that the real number of contacts.


No wonder Czechia didn't managed to stop their trend, because the measures that should have been in place at 10% positivity, were barely implemented at 20% positivity.


The 10% threshold is the second most important one.

The 5% one is when the trend CAN BE REVERSED quickly enough. At 10%, the trend is basically impossible to reverse, without the necessary measures, and EVERY COUNTRY that is big enough (over 7-8 million people) and have at least a major urban area (1 million or over), and doesn't implement those measures, will reach 15% positivity in a matter of weeks.


When reaching 15% positivity, the control over the pandemic is lost. If measures are in place, for each threshold, and testing is at 3,000 / 1 mil. / day, with a good contact tracing, no country should ever reach 10%.


The issue is that MOST countries do not have the capability to test 3,000 / 1 mil. / day, and those that have, will most likely lose the control of the virus because contact tracing becomes irrelevant.


What happens at 15% positivity? Can things be reversed?

Yes, they can, but a FULL LOCK-DOWN should be in place, all travel should be stopped, schools closed, all services, pubs, restaurants, gyms, shops, etc. closed, except essential, medical, security, fire department and food production and food related shops.


At 15% positivity, the real number of infected is almost 4 times higher, the testing capability should reach 4,000 tests / 1 mil. people / day (almost no country can do this at this moment), contact tracing should be maximized , and even if it is almost irrelevant, it will make a difference, long term, under a full lock-down.


There are no half measures now. 15% positivity is full lock-down time. Any other measures will only SLIGHTLY postpone reaching the 20% positivity. Maybe get couple day more, because another thing that happens at 15% positivity, and full lock-downs aren't in place, is that the spread becomes exponential.

The medical system will start to collapse in many places, especially large urban areas.


To understand why testing should keep pace with the spread, just look at Argentina. They were under a soft lock-down for 4 months or so...but their testing capacity barely increased.

They reached 50% and over positivity, because their testing was virtually the same. Contact tracing...forget about it. It's already lost at 15%, it is completely lost at 50%.

They decided to drop the lock-downs, because "it didn't worked". Ofc it didn't, because it WAS NOT a lock-down.

Chile did a proper lock-down...and it worked, while being basically like Argentina in terms of testing and contact tracing.


At 20% positivity, regardless of the number of tests / day, the control over the spread of the virus is totally lost. The only way out is a full lock-down. A full lock-down should be in place at 15% anyway, but even if the government CHOSE to avoid it this time, it should be in place at 20%, regardless.


So, when a country will totally lose the control over the epidemic?

At 20%.



At 20%, it matter not how many people you test. It can be 10, or 100,000,000. It doesn't change anything.


The medical system will collapse at 20%.


TECHNICALLY peaking, a medical system collapses when all hospitals are full. If we wanna talk about technicalities, no medical system will EVER collapse. There will always be some free beds in some god forsaken town.

But if we want to talk reality, the moment a country have their hospitals ICU full, in major urban areas, their medical system IS COLLAPSED.

The medical staff can only take care, PROPERLY, of a set number of patients. When that number is passed, the hospital in the matter IS COLLAPSED.

We are not robots. We can only do so much. And under constant pressure, the medical staff will crack, some will get sick, some hospitals will have outbreaks and close, etc. etc.



When to worry?

When positivity reaches 10%?

When to know that things are about to pop?

When positivity reaches 15%.

When to prepare for the worst?

No later then when positivity reaches 20%.



Each one of you can look at their own country. The testing, the positivity, the measures, and draw your own conclusion.


What I see now in Europe is that by the end of this week, about half of Europe will lose control of the pandemic, and the other half will lose it by the end of this month.


Things are bad now...wait until next week.


And if you are "lucky" to live until next week...just wait and see what comes once November is here, because they, the governments, TPTB, the elites, Reptilians, whoever you think rules us, CHOSE TO POSTPONE FULL LOCK-DOWNS until 30% positivity, in the HOPE that it won't get there, or if it does get there, will start to subside, and the economy will be saved.


They are wrong. It won't stop at 30%, it won't subside, the medical systems will collapse, the society will start to crack...and the economy will STILL NOT BE SAVED.
CleverCreator

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10/22/2020 09:35 AM

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You are appreciated.

Stay safe.
Doom Level: Ornery Octopus

Just do your best. And be a decent soul. Don’t forget the comfort food.
SWOOPSTER
Opera Non Verba - Deeds, Not Words

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10/22/2020 09:52 AM

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Thank you for the update DR and all of the hard work you have put into this thread.
Much appreciated!
~SWOOP~
lol79

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Switzerland
10/22/2020 09:55 AM
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So many thanks to you DR!
Stay well, everyone
miabelieves

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10/22/2020 10:01 AM

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Question, how do we not what the current testing levels are for each state, city, town? Do we. Let say they can test 3000 day but are they testing 3000 a day???
Hold on to your undies, it's gonna be a hell of a ride
Anonymous Coward
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Bulgaria
10/22/2020 10:24 AM
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In Bulgaria we are already toast before it even started.

Yesterday we were at 17% positivity rate.

Our government are now begging for medical students to go help in the hospitals because there is no more trained staff available to take care of the current number of patients.

And we are just at the start of the winter season and this whole ordeal. The past few days there's been more and more cases of people dying because they can't be admitted into a hospital due to the problems with capacity in the past few days.

And as if it wasn't already bad, more and more trained medical staff are getting sick, leaving due to exhaustion, and some even dying. A few days ago we lost Prof. Georgi Hubchev who was named doctor of the year in 2019. If the trend continues, pretty soon there will be almost no specialists to treat and help people.

And after everything said above, there are STILL no real measures to speak of for curbing the spread here even at 17% positivity rate. The current guidelines is still just "wear your mask and wash your hands". All schools, restaurants and clubs are still open as if everything is fine and dandy.

wtf
Ulysses31

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10/22/2020 10:26 AM

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Thank you DR you didn't fail to disturbed me, not your intention of course.
Stay safe everyone.
Serenity Now

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10/22/2020 10:35 AM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 308
Excellent work, DR. I'm going to read it again and then explain it to everyone I know. Thank you.

I found this link for the US. It shows the number of tests per 1,000 people state by state. So you need to multiply that number by 1,000 to show the number of tests per 1,000,000 people if you want to use DR's analysis. It also shows the positivity rate for each state.

Example: 2.2 tests per 1,000 people

2.2 x 1000 = 2200 tests per one million people

I will update this example for a couple of specific states after I read DR's post again.


[link to www.beckershospitalreview.com (secure)]

Last Edited by Serenity Now on 10/22/2020 11:08 AM
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Vego

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10/22/2020 10:37 AM

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Thank you DR. Much love to everyone here, stay safe, stay healthy.
The bad news is nothing lasts forever. The good news is nothing lasts forever.
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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Romania
10/22/2020 10:39 AM
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Question, how do we not what the current testing levels are for each state, city, town? Do we. Let say they can test 3000 day but are they testing 3000 a day???
 Quoting: miabelieves



Local data should be on local media.


It doesn't matter how many they CAN test per day, it only matters how many tests they do everyday.


I am not talking about persons tested, I am talking about tests, and my calculations were made for tests, not persons tested, because we have no fucking idea how many people they test.


I can only estimate that the number of persons tested is between 60 and 70 percent of the tests done.


For example, if there are 10,000 tests done in a day, they probably tested 6-7,000 people.
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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Romania
10/22/2020 10:49 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 308
In Bulgaria we are already toast before it even started.

Yesterday we were at 17% positivity rate.

Our government are now begging for medical students to go help in the hospitals because there is no more trained staff available to take care of the current number of patients.

And we are just at the start of the winter season and this whole ordeal. The past few days there's been more and more cases of people dying because they can't be admitted into a hospital due to the problems with capacity in the past few days.

And as if it wasn't already bad, more and more trained medical staff are getting sick, leaving due to exhaustion, and some even dying. A few days ago we lost Prof. Georgi Hubchev who was named doctor of the year in 2019. If the trend continues, pretty soon there will be almost no specialists to treat and help people.

And after everything said above, there are STILL no real measures to speak of for curbing the spread here even at 17% positivity rate. The current guidelines is still just "wear your mask and wash your hands". All schools, restaurants and clubs are still open as if everything is fine and dandy.

wtf
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 58674618



Bulgaria lost the control of the epidemic. Same for Romania, and a bunch of other countries.

My thresholds were at positivity AND number of tests.


Romania is almost at 15%, and we should do roughly 57,000 tests a day. We did 37k yesterday and just above 34k today.


The reality is that we are close to 20% TRUE positivity, maybe 3-4 days away before we will see exponential rises in hospitalizations and ICU, because in cases, we will see a "soft" exponential, due to low testing.

And still no measures taken, same as Bulgaria, the Romanian government is "wash your hands, wear masks and social distancing", all day long.


Eyes on hospitalizations and ICU.

Last Edited by deplorable recollector on 10/22/2020 10:51 AM
Anonymous Coward
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10/22/2020 11:27 AM
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Thanks for very clearly explaining the positivity percentage. Much appreciated.
hf
BeelzeBob

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10/22/2020 11:31 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 308
At 20%, I say we go to some version of Sophie's Choice.

When a ship is sinking, you save as many as you can but don't go down with the ship to save everyone.

For those who missed it, for a discussion on Sophie's choice, see page 276 of this thread.

It would be nice to make the virus/mask deniers the last in line, but it is probably not feasible.
"Is everyone okay?" "Well, the fucking hippies aren’t. That’s for goddamn sure." -- Rick Dalton
Anonymous Coward
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10/22/2020 11:46 AM
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Outstanding job done DR. A good book to read about the decline of a hospital in a disaster is Five Days at Memorial. Katrina took out Mercy Memorial. Sobering read.
ParamedicUK

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10/22/2020 11:53 AM
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UK about 10% yesterday!

Seems we are testing enough but no sign of a full lockdown - just a few minor restrictions in some areas.

15% here we come then!!!!

UK Keep Calm
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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Romania
10/22/2020 11:55 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 308
UK about 10% yesterday!

Seems we are testing enough but no sign of a full lockdown - just a few minor restrictions in some areas.

15% here we come then!!!!

UK Keep Calm
 Quoting: ParamedicUK



UK is in the half of Europe that will lose control by the end of this month.
Anonymous Coward
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10/22/2020 11:57 AM
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If Spanish users (Lladó, Ragnarok etc) have questions to ask, registration to the forum isn't required.
Serenity Now

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10/22/2020 12:00 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 308
If you want to analyze your particular state (or for friends/family), here's how to do it. First, I summed up DR's post as follows:


Number of tests needed according to positivity rate:

< 3% - 1000 tests per million people
3% - 1500 tests per million people
5% - 2000 tests per million people
10% - 2500 or 3000 tests per million people
15% - I'm not sure (those are my words, not DR's)
20% - Doesn't matter (too late)


Restrictions needed according to positivity rate:

< 3% - masks recommended at work and stores
3% - masks mandatory; limit gatherings; schools prepare to close
5% - masks mandatory; further limit gatherings
10% - close schools; shutdown except for essential business & travel until 5% reached
15% - full lockdown; no travel; no half measures
20% - full lockdown; no other choice


Real case numbers according to positivity rate:

1% - real numbers are slightly higher
3% - real numbers are significantly higher but not double
5% - real numbers are double or more (if 2000 tests per million; if less than 2000 tests, real numbers are even worse)
10% - real numbers are three times higher (if 2500-3000 tests per million; if less than 2500-3000 tests, real numbers are worse)
15% - pandemic out of control (exponential)
20% - pandemic totally out of control


Next I will post a few examples of US states. If any of the above is wrong, please correct me, DR. :)

Last Edited by Serenity Now on 10/22/2020 12:28 PM
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Serenity Now

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10/22/2020 12:12 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 308
South Dakota:

2200 tests per million people
34.7% positivity rate
587 cases

At 10% they should have increased tests to 2500 or 3000
Why? Because real numbers are three times higher at 10% positivity
So they have 1761 cases (at best)
Should have shut down at 15%
Totally out of control



Pennsylvania:

1200 tests per million people
10.1% positivity rate
1363 cases

At 10% - Need to increase testing to 2500 or 3000 tests per million
Why? Because real numbers are three times higher at 10% positivity
So they have 4089 cases (at least)
Need to increase testing to 3000 asap and implement 10% level restrictions



Georgia:

1700 tests per million people
6.3% positivity rate
1312 cases

Over 5% - Should have increased tests to 2000 tests per million when at 5%
Why? Because real numbers are double or more at 5% positivity
So they have 2624 cases (at best)
Need to increase testing to 2500 and implement 5% (maybe 10%) level restrictions



Hawaii:

2500 tests per million people
2.4% positivity rate
77 cases

Less than 3% - Could do only 1500 tests per million, but they are testing way more than even if at 5% positivity rate
Less than 3% - Real case numbers are between slightly higher and significantly higher, but not double
Therefore, real case numbers are somewhat accurate
Current restrictions are greater than the recommendations at < 3% positivity level
Should be able to maintain the current rate



Again, DR, please correct me if I got your analysis / methodology wrong. The US states are so different, and our media isn't worth a damn. I'm trying to help people figure out how to analyze their own state.

I chose these states randomly, based on the numbers....not politics. Please do not leave political commentary on DR's thread. This is where I got the above numbers:

[link to www.beckershospitalreview.com (secure)]

Last Edited by Serenity Now on 10/22/2020 12:31 PM
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10/22/2020 12:25 PM

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bump
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Serenity Now

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10/22/2020 12:27 PM

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PS--I did not even attempt to analyze contact tracing, as I am 99% sure none of that is occurring in the US. :)
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10/22/2020 12:49 PM
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France: +41,622
Leonero

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10/22/2020 12:53 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 308
I am going to post the update earlier than usual, because I have some shit to do in the evening.


This update is largely about numbers.


After looking at pretty much every significant country, from the early onset of the pandemic, I managed to establish a theoretical correlation between official numbers, real numbers, number of tests, the thresholds that are reached in positivity, what measures have to be taken and when.


Obviously there will be differences between countries, because every country have its specifics, but generally speaking, I think I managed to get to numbers that can and should be considered as a guideline.


Back in the Spring, based on my model, the real number of infected people was 8 to 10 times (as a median number) bigger then the official number of cases, mainly because the testing was pretty damn low.


Since then, I managed to calculate a much closer value to reality, that is different for each threshold of positivity.


I have set 6 thresholds : 1%, 3%, 5%, 10%, 15% and 20% of positive tests, in the official number of tests.


Another number that I have calculated (as a minimum required) is the number of tests that have to be done, in order to detect as many cases as possible, and have some control on the spread.


That number is 1,000 tests per 1,000,000 people per day. This number is enough up to a 3% positivity, and in certain countries, with good contact tracing, it is enough even up to 5% positivity.

Up to 3% positivity, all things should be normal, and masks should be RECOMMENDED in enclosed spaces (not homes, nurseries, schools, etc.), like workplaces, shops, etc.

Once a country reaches 3% positivity, and doesn't have a good contact tracing capability (the vast majority of countries don't), the number of tests should be increased to 1,500 / 1 mil. people / day.

Masks should be mandatory, not recommended, events and gatherings should be limited to under 100 people outdoors and 50 indoors, schools should prepare for on-line classes.


Once a country reaches 5% positivity, the testing should increase to 2,000 / 1 mil. people / day, to keep the pace with the infection.

Masks should be mandatory in workplaces and schools, as well as all the other places mentioned earlier. Bars, pubs, restaurants capacity should be capped to 50% inside. Transport should be also limited, but it is impossible to do it in a large urban area.

Also, when reaching 5% positivity, most testing should be done in large urban areas, for obvious reasons.


The threshold of 5% positivity is probably the most important one, and if this threshold is maintained or rises, in the conditions of 2,000 tests / 1 mil. people / day, the country that is in this position, should prepare for harsher restrictions.

At 5%, contact tracing becomes difficult, for most countries.


If the measures I have mentioned earlier do not work (for various reasons), and the country is heading to 10% positivity in official testing, the control over the spread is about to be lost.

Simultaneously, when reaching 10%, a country should do the following :

-All measures in place will be maintained.
-Schools should close, nation-wide.
-Testing capacity increased to at least 2,500 tests / 1 mil. people / day. 3,000 is better, but pretty damn hard to do for most countries.
-Bars, pubs, restaurants, hair and nail saloons, other non-essentials should close until the positivity drop again to 5% or bellow. Not 2 weeks, not 17 days, not any arbitrary numbers some politicians come up with.
-All events and gatherings (including religious) should be suspended.
-International and national travel limited to essential travel only.


To understand what 10% positivity means, at 2,500 tests / 1 mil. people, I will use the U.S. and Czechia as examples. A big country vs a small country, but not as small as to miss certain specifics (like large urban areas, tourism, international travel connections, etc.).

Both the U.S. and Czechia are capable, at this moment, to make 3,000 tests / 1 mil. people / day, the U.S. with 975,000 tests / day and Czechia with roughly 30,000 tests / day.


Now I will specify the correlation between the positivity from official tests and the real number of infected, for the situation where we are NOW, and not in the spring.

At 1% positivity in official testing, the real number is just slightly higher. Contact tracing is a non-issue.

At 3%, the real number is significantly higher, but not double then offcial number of cases. Contact tracing, as long as the number of tests is increased to 1,500/ 1 mil./ day is a non-issue.

At 5%, the real number of infected is double or higher, as long as the number of tests is reaching 2,000 / 1 mil. / day. If it's less, contact tracing becomes an issue. Lots of cases are going undetected.

At 10%, the real number is about 3 times higher, as long as the number of tests is 2,500-3,000 / 1 mil. / day. Contact tracing becomes difficult for every country, no matter which country it is.


Now, on the U.S. and Czechia example, when they reach 10% positivity in official testing, and the real numbers.

The U.S. would have 97.5k official cases / day, Czechia 3,000 cases / day. The real number of infected would be close to 300k for the U.S. and 9k for Czechia.

Assuming a good contact tracing, assuming that the required measures are in place and assuming that a large part of the population do abide, the trend will be reversed in 2 to 3 weeks.

Czechia did not took the necessary measures when they reached 3,000 cases / day ( 9,000 in reality). They did it at almost 10k cases / day, and only implemented PARTIALLY the measures that should have in place.

Assuming a contact tracing that is able to track the ALL the contacts of 3,000 official cases, and that number is usually 4-5 contacts / case / 2 weeks, as a median numbers, Czechia would be capable to track up to 15k people, related to those 3,000 cases they found.

However, they will MISS another 6,000 cases from testing, and those 6,000 cases contacts would amount to 24-30k people, that Czechia won't detect...because they are contacts of undetected cases through official testing.


At 10% positivity, assuming 3,000 tests / 1 mil. / day, a country, ANY country contact tracing become irrelevant. The majority of the infected people are not tested, and the contacts of the official cases are significantly less that the real number of contacts.


No wonder Czechia didn't managed to stop their trend, because the measures that should have been in place at 10% positivity, were barely implemented at 20% positivity.


The 10% threshold is the second most important one.

The 5% one is when the trend CAN BE REVERSED quickly enough. At 10%, the trend is basically impossible to reverse, without the necessary measures, and EVERY COUNTRY that is big enough (over 7-8 million people) and have at least a major urban area (1 million or over), and doesn't implement those measures, will reach 15% positivity in a matter of weeks.


When reaching 15% positivity, the control over the pandemic is lost. If measures are in place, for each threshold, and testing is at 3,000 / 1 mil. / day, with a good contact tracing, no country should ever reach 10%.


The issue is that MOST countries do not have the capability to test 3,000 / 1 mil. / day, and those that have, will most likely lose the control of the virus because contact tracing becomes irrelevant.


What happens at 15% positivity? Can things be reversed?

Yes, they can, but a FULL LOCK-DOWN should be in place, all travel should be stopped, schools closed, all services, pubs, restaurants, gyms, shops, etc. closed, except essential, medical, security, fire department and food production and food related shops.


At 15% positivity, the real number of infected is almost 4 times higher, the testing capability should reach 4,000 tests / 1 mil. people / day (almost no country can do this at this moment), contact tracing should be maximized , and even if it is almost irrelevant, it will make a difference, long term, under a full lock-down.


There are no half measures now. 15% positivity is full lock-down time. Any other measures will only SLIGHTLY postpone reaching the 20% positivity. Maybe get couple day more, because another thing that happens at 15% positivity, and full lock-downs aren't in place, is that the spread becomes exponential.

The medical system will start to collapse in many places, especially large urban areas.


To understand why testing should keep pace with the spread, just look at Argentina. They were under a soft lock-down for 4 months or so...but their testing capacity barely increased.

They reached 50% and over positivity, because their testing was virtually the same. Contact tracing...forget about it. It's already lost at 15%, it is completely lost at 50%.

They decided to drop the lock-downs, because "it didn't worked". Ofc it didn't, because it WAS NOT a lock-down.

Chile did a proper lock-down...and it worked, while being basically like Argentina in terms of testing and contact tracing.


At 20% positivity, regardless of the number of tests / day, the control over the spread of the virus is totally lost. The only way out is a full lock-down. A full lock-down should be in place at 15% anyway, but even if the government CHOSE to avoid it this time, it should be in place at 20%, regardless.


So, when a country will totally lose the control over the epidemic?

At 20%.



At 20%, it matter not how many people you test. It can be 10, or 100,000,000. It doesn't change anything.


The medical system will collapse at 20%.


TECHNICALLY peaking, a medical system collapses when all hospitals are full. If we wanna talk about technicalities, no medical system will EVER collapse. There will always be some free beds in some god forsaken town.

But if we want to talk reality, the moment a country have their hospitals ICU full, in major urban areas, their medical system IS COLLAPSED.

The medical staff can only take care, PROPERLY, of a set number of patients. When that number is passed, the hospital in the matter IS COLLAPSED.

We are not robots. We can only do so much. And under constant pressure, the medical staff will crack, some will get sick, some hospitals will have outbreaks and close, etc. etc.



When to worry?

When positivity reaches 10%?

When to know that things are about to pop?

When positivity reaches 15%.

When to prepare for the worst?

No later then when positivity reaches 20%.



Each one of you can look at their own country. The testing, the positivity, the measures, and draw your own conclusion.


What I see now in Europe is that by the end of this week, about half of Europe will lose control of the pandemic, and the other half will lose it by the end of this month.


Things are bad now...wait until next week.


And if you are "lucky" to live until next week...just wait and see what comes once November is here, because they, the governments, TPTB, the elites, Reptilians, whoever you think rules us, CHOSE TO POSTPONE FULL LOCK-DOWNS until 30% positivity, in the HOPE that it won't get there, or if it does get there, will start to subside, and the economy will be saved.


They are wrong. It won't stop at 30%, it won't subside, the medical systems will collapse, the society will start to crack...and the economy will STILL NOT BE SAVED.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


I can't find words to reply to your update DR...
Just... Thanks.
I am currently trying to write a reply in Italian so I can better explain my feelings and thoughts (and therefore, proceed translating it in English), but I can't...

I see my country collapsing every day under the pandemic and the leaders do nothing...
Most regions will go under a nighttime curfew, but situation is getting worse everyday.

Some hospitals managers also started to say that patients are too many to test all, so it is better not to test at all and call the emergency number when the symptoms are at worst.

Really, your post is... "too much" for my brain and, most of all, for my "heart".

I really feel that we are going to face a nightmare in terms of pandemic and economy, but most people act like it's nothing.

Thanks for your commitment to your thread ans for your work.

Stay safe, everyone...

Hugs from Italy.
Ad Omnia Paratus
Anonymous Coward
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10/22/2020 12:56 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 308
France: +41,622
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79471260


DR called it!

France today, just above 128k tests.

20,468 cases, just shy of 16% positivity.

Almost 50% increase from last Tuesday.



Pretty bad.


Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, France should do around 200k test / day.


If they hit 17-18% on Friday / Saturday, at over 200k tests, they are getting damn close to 40k cases, which is the point where they will no longer be able to control the spread.
Serenity Now

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10/22/2020 12:57 PM

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Hang in there, Leonero. :)
First tell the truth, then give your opinion....
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10/22/2020 01:03 PM
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CleverCreator

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10/22/2020 01:07 PM

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Hang in there, Leonero. :)
 Quoting: Serenity Now


hide

If possible.... duck. The shitshow is officially full blown.
Doom Level: Ornery Octopus

Just do your best. And be a decent soul. Don’t forget the comfort food.
Vego

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10/22/2020 01:09 PM

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Hang in there, Leonero. :)
 Quoting: Serenity Now


hide

If possible.... duck. The shitshow is officially full blown.
 Quoting: CleverCreator


Accelerant has been thrown on this slow burn.
The bad news is nothing lasts forever. The good news is nothing lasts forever.





GLP