WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

I am going to post the update earlier than usual, because I have some shit to do in the evening.


This update is largely about numbers.


After looking at pretty much every significant country, from the early onset of the pandemic, I managed to establish a theoretical correlation between official numbers, real numbers, number of tests, the thresholds that are reached in positivity, what measures have to be taken and when.


Obviously there will be differences between countries, because every country have its specifics, but generally speaking, I think I managed to get to numbers that can and should be considered as a guideline.


Back in the Spring, based on my model, the real number of infected people was 8 to 10 times (as a median number) bigger then the official number of cases, mainly because the testing was pretty damn low.


Since then, I managed to calculate a much closer value to reality, that is different for each threshold of positivity.


I have set 6 thresholds : 1%, 3%, 5%, 10%, 15% and 20% of positive tests, in the official number of tests.


Another number that I have calculated (as a minimum required) is the number of tests that have to be done, in order to detect as many cases as possible, and have some control on the spread.


That number is 1,000 tests per 1,000,000 people per day. This number is enough up to a 3% positivity, and in certain countries, with good contact tracing, it is enough even up to 5% positivity.

Up to 3% positivity, all things should be normal, and masks should be RECOMMENDED in enclosed spaces (not homes, nurseries, schools, etc.), like workplaces, shops, etc.

Once a country reaches 3% positivity, and doesn't have a good contact tracing capability (the vast majority of countries don't), the number of tests should be increased to 1,500 / 1 mil. people / day.

Masks should be mandatory, not recommended, events and gatherings should be limited to under 100 people outdoors and 50 indoors, schools should prepare for on-line classes.


Once a country reaches 5% positivity, the testing should increase to 2,000 / 1 mil. people / day, to keep the pace with the infection.

Masks should be mandatory in workplaces and schools, as well as all the other places mentioned earlier. Bars, pubs, restaurants capacity should be capped to 50% inside. Transport should be also limited, but it is impossible to do it in a large urban area.

Also, when reaching 5% positivity, most testing should be done in large urban areas, for obvious reasons.


The threshold of 5% positivity is probably the most important one, and if this threshold is maintained or rises, in the conditions of 2,000 tests / 1 mil. people / day, the country that is in this position, should prepare for harsher restrictions.

At 5%, contact tracing becomes difficult, for most countries.


If the measures I have mentioned earlier do not work (for various reasons), and the country is heading to 10% positivity in official testing, the control over the spread is about to be lost.

Simultaneously, when reaching 10%, a country should do the following :

-All measures in place will be maintained.
-Schools should close, nation-wide.
-Testing capacity increased to at least 2,500 tests / 1 mil. people / day. 3,000 is better, but pretty damn hard to do for most countries.
-Bars, pubs, restaurants, hair and nail saloons, other non-essentials should close until the positivity drop again to 5% or bellow. Not 2 weeks, not 17 days, not any arbitrary numbers some politicians come up with.
-All events and gatherings (including religious) should be suspended.
-International and national travel limited to essential travel only.


To understand what 10% positivity means, at 2,500 tests / 1 mil. people, I will use the U.S. and Czechia as examples. A big country vs a small country, but not as small as to miss certain specifics (like large urban areas, tourism, international travel connections, etc.).

Both the U.S. and Czechia are capable, at this moment, to make 3,000 tests / 1 mil. people / day, the U.S. with 975,000 tests / day and Czechia with roughly 30,000 tests / day.


Now I will specify the correlation between the positivity from official tests and the real number of infected, for the situation where we are NOW, and not in the spring.

At 1% positivity in official testing, the real number is just slightly higher. Contact tracing is a non-issue.

At 3%, the real number is significantly higher, but not double then offcial number of cases. Contact tracing, as long as the number of tests is increased to 1,500/ 1 mil./ day is a non-issue.

At 5%, the real number of infected is double or higher, as long as the number of tests is reaching 2,000 / 1 mil. / day. If it's less, contact tracing becomes an issue. Lots of cases are going undetected.

At 10%, the real number is about 3 times higher, as long as the number of tests is 2,500-3,000 / 1 mil. / day. Contact tracing becomes difficult for every country, no matter which country it is.


Now, on the U.S. and Czechia example, when they reach 10% positivity in official testing, and the real numbers.

The U.S. would have 97.5k official cases / day, Czechia 3,000 cases / day. The real number of infected would be close to 300k for the U.S. and 9k for Czechia.

Assuming a good contact tracing, assuming that the required measures are in place and assuming that a large part of the population do abide, the trend will be reversed in 2 to 3 weeks.

Czechia did not took the necessary measures when they reached 3,000 cases / day ( 9,000 in reality). They did it at almost 10k cases / day, and only implemented PARTIALLY the measures that should have in place.

Assuming a contact tracing that is able to track the ALL the contacts of 3,000 official cases, and that number is usually 4-5 contacts / case / 2 weeks, as a median numbers, Czechia would be capable to track up to 15k people, related to those 3,000 cases they found.

However, they will MISS another 6,000 cases from testing, and those 6,000 cases contacts would amount to 24-30k people, that Czechia won't detect...because they are contacts of undetected cases through official testing.


At 10% positivity, assuming 3,000 tests / 1 mil. / day, a country, ANY country contact tracing become irrelevant. The majority of the infected people are not tested, and the contacts of the official cases are significantly less that the real number of contacts.


No wonder Czechia didn't managed to stop their trend, because the measures that should have been in place at 10% positivity, were barely implemented at 20% positivity.


The 10% threshold is the second most important one.

The 5% one is when the trend CAN BE REVERSED quickly enough. At 10%, the trend is basically impossible to reverse, without the necessary measures, and EVERY COUNTRY that is big enough (over 7-8 million people) and have at least a major urban area (1 million or over), and doesn't implement those measures, will reach 15% positivity in a matter of weeks.


When reaching 15% positivity, the control over the pandemic is lost. If measures are in place, for each threshold, and testing is at 3,000 / 1 mil. / day, with a good contact tracing, no country should ever reach 10%.


The issue is that MOST countries do not have the capability to test 3,000 / 1 mil. / day, and those that have, will most likely lose the control of the virus because contact tracing becomes irrelevant.


What happens at 15% positivity? Can things be reversed?

Yes, they can, but a FULL LOCK-DOWN should be in place, all travel should be stopped, schools closed, all services, pubs, restaurants, gyms, shops, etc. closed, except essential, medical, security, fire department and food production and food related shops.


At 15% positivity, the real number of infected is almost 4 times higher, the testing capability should reach 4,000 tests / 1 mil. people / day (almost no country can do this at this moment), contact tracing should be maximized , and even if it is almost irrelevant, it will make a difference, long term, under a full lock-down.


There are no half measures now. 15% positivity is full lock-down time. Any other measures will only SLIGHTLY postpone reaching the 20% positivity. Maybe get couple day more, because another thing that happens at 15% positivity, and full lock-downs aren't in place, is that the spread becomes exponential.

The medical system will start to collapse in many places, especially large urban areas.


To understand why testing should keep pace with the spread, just look at Argentina. They were under a soft lock-down for 4 months or so...but their testing capacity barely increased.

They reached 50% and over positivity, because their testing was virtually the same. Contact tracing...forget about it. It's already lost at 15%, it is completely lost at 50%.

They decided to drop the lock-downs, because "it didn't worked". Ofc it didn't, because it WAS NOT a lock-down.

Chile did a proper lock-down...and it worked, while being basically like Argentina in terms of testing and contact tracing.


At 20% positivity, regardless of the number of tests / day, the control over the spread of the virus is totally lost. The only way out is a full lock-down. A full lock-down should be in place at 15% anyway, but even if the government CHOSE to avoid it this time, it should be in place at 20%, regardless.


So, when a country will totally lose the control over the epidemic?

At 20%.


At 20%, it matter not how many people you test. It can be 10, or 100,000,000. It doesn't change anything.


The medical system will collapse at 20%.


TECHNICALLY peaking, a medical system collapses when all hospitals are full. If we wanna talk about technicalities, no medical system will EVER collapse. There will always be some free beds in some god forsaken town.

But if we want to talk reality, the moment a country have their hospitals ICU full, in major urban areas, their medical system IS COLLAPSED.

The medical staff can only take care, PROPERLY, of a set number of patients. When that number is passed, the hospital in the matter IS COLLAPSED.

We are not robots. We can only do so much. And under constant pressure, the medical staff will crack, some will get sick, some hospitals will have outbreaks and close, etc. etc.



When to worry?

When positivity reaches 10%?

When to know that things are about to pop?

When positivity reaches 15%.

When to prepare for the worst?

No later then when positivity reaches 20%.



Each one of you can look at their own country. The testing, the positivity, the measures, and draw your own conclusion.


What I see now in Europe is that by the end of this week, about half of Europe will lose control of the pandemic, and the other half will lose it by the end of this month.


Things are bad now...wait until next week.


And if you are "lucky" to live until next week...just wait and see what comes once November is here, because they, the governments, TPTB, the elites, Reptilians, whoever you think rules us, CHOSE TO POSTPONE FULL LOCK-DOWNS until 30% positivity, in the HOPE that it won't get there, or if it does get there, will start to subside, and the economy will be saved.


They are wrong. It won't stop at 30%, it won't subside, the medical systems will collapse, the society will start to crack...and the economy will STILL NOT BE SAVED.

Hang in there, Leonero. :)

If possible.... duck. The shitshow is officially full blown.

Accelerant has been thrown on this slow burn.

Hang in there, Leonero. :)

Covid 19- Planned a Long Time ago!

[link to open.lbry.com (secure)]

South Dakota:

2200 tests per million people
34.7% positivity rate
587 cases

At 10% they should have increased tests to 2500 or 3000
Why? Because real numbers are three times higher at 10% positivity
So they have 1761 cases (at best)
Should have shut down at 15%
Totally out of control



Pennsylvania:

1200 tests per million people
10.1% positivity rate
1363 cases

At 10% - Need to increase testing to 2500 or 3000 tests per million
Why? Because real numbers are three times higher at 10% positivity
So they have 4089 cases (at least)
Need to increase testing to 3000 asap and implement 10% level restrictions



Georgia:

1700 tests per million people
6.3% positivity rate
1312 cases

Over 5% - Should have increased tests to 2000 tests per million when at 5%
Why? Because real numbers are double or more at 5% positivity
So they have 2624 cases (at best)
Need to increase testing to 2500 and implement 5% (maybe 10%) level restrictions



Hawaii:

2500 tests per million people
2.4% positivity rate
77 cases

Less than 3% - Could do only 1500 tests per million, but they are testing way more than even if at 5% positivity rate
Less than 3% - Real case numbers are between slightly higher and significantly higher, but not double
Therefore, real case numbers are somewhat accurate
Current restrictions are greater than the recommendations at < 3% positivity level
Should be able to maintain the current rate



Again, DR, please correct me if I got your analysis / methodology wrong. The US states are so different, and our media isn't worth a damn. I'm trying to help people figure out how to analyze their own state.

I chose these states randomly, based on the numbers....not politics. Please do not leave political commentary on DR's thread. This is where I got the above numbers:

[link to www.beckershospitalreview.com (secure)]

Here in Argentina we have 60% of positivity rate and yesterday we have our record cases 18,326 and we are still in the first wave I think.
Im watching closely the numbers of Europe and they are worrying, I don't want to imagine what the numbers will be in my country when the second wave arrives.

Population: 45,322,918
Test/ 1m pop: 59,621
Total tests: 2,702,220
Cases: 1,037,325
Deaths: 27,519
ICU: 4,573

Thanks for the update DR.

Sorry to hear that Blackfire, really sad situation.

Business as usual in North Carolina. Continuing to ease restrictions. More people have stopped wearing the mask. No one knows anyone getting sick. I don't believe these numbers, sorry.

Business as usual in North Carolina. Continuing to ease restrictions. More people have stopped wearing the mask. No one knows anyone getting sick. I don't believe these numbers, sorry.

Bulgaria lost the control of the epidemic. Same for Romania, and a bunch of other countries.

My thresholds were at positivity AND number of tests.


Romania is almost at 15%, and we should do roughly 57,000 tests a day. We did 37k yesterday and just above 34k today.


The reality is that we are close to 20% TRUE positivity, maybe 3-4 days away before we will see exponential rises in hospitalizations and ICU, because in cases, we will see a "soft" exponential, due to low testing.

And still no measures taken, same as Bulgaria, the Romanian government is "wash your hands, wear masks and social distancing", all day long.


Eyes on hospitalizations and ICU.

Here in Belgium we are already at 20% ...

And goverment just say they stay the course, don't want full lockdown.. the economy is too important