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CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 308

 
Anonymous Coward
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United Kingdom
10/22/2020 05:44 PM
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Anonymous Coward
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10/22/2020 05:47 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 308
I hope everyone is ready, because the 2nd lockdown is the final one.

They have all the kinks worked out from the first, and the Oregon vaccine plan is the template that's going to be implemented all over soon after.
Covid19sars2.0

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10/22/2020 05:54 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 308
[link to mobile.twitter.com (secure)]


Are the UK playing the spanish numbers game.

To see a drop in posative like that.
Covid19sars2.0
CleverCreator

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10/22/2020 06:01 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 308
[link to mobile.twitter.com (secure)]


Are the UK playing the spanish numbers game.

To see a drop in posative like that.
 Quoting: Covid19sars2.0


In the US too.

Dancers.
Doom Level: Ornery Octopus

Just do your best. And be a decent soul. Don’t forget the comfort food.
Anonymous Coward
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10/22/2020 06:07 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 308
France

The incidence rate in Roubaix(near Belgium Border) is 1,135 COVID19 cases per 100,000 inhabitants despite the closure of gyms and bars. Positivity of the tests: 22%
Anonymous Coward
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10/22/2020 06:10 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 308
Things are bad now...wait until next week.


And if you are "lucky" to live until next week...just wait and see what comes once November is here
, because they, the governments, TPTB, the elites, Reptilians, whoever you think rules us, CHOSE TO POSTPONE FULL LOCK-DOWNS until 30% positivity, in the HOPE that it won't get there, or if it does get there, will start to subside, and the economy will be saved.


They are wrong. It won't stop at 30%, it won't subside, the medical systems will collapse, the society will start to crack...and the economy will STILL NOT BE SAVED.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


What are you talking about !? 50% of the people hospitalized here are people who tested positive but are assymptomatic.

Everything is almost back to normal already...

You are delusional. You said 4 months ago that society would collapse in the summer, now you are saying in the fall... I'm sure soon enough it will be in the winter, then in 2021, then 2022... your ''model'' has been wrong since the beginning.

bsflag
 Quoting: The Only


50% of the people hospitalized here are people who tested positive but are assymptomatic.

This is 100% bullshit! No hospitals are utilizing rooms for "ASSYMPTOMATIC" covid patients. I'm a healthcare worker and know better.

Please do tell us exactly which hospital is doing this...
I'll call and ask them myself. Because no one on the planet is doing that.
 Quoting: Uncle of an Uncle


This video is the testimony of an asymptomatic Italian in China. Mandatory quarantine in the hospital

Anonymous Coward
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United States
10/22/2020 06:21 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 308
Just a note about so called "Contact tracing". My niece, who, like many others in her freshmen college class got the virus came home and self quarantined for 14 days at home after getting cold symptoms and testing positive. No one else in the house got sick. A week or so later a "telemarketer" type called up and unprofessionally introduced himself wanting to where she had been and with whom she had come in contact with. They hung up on the moron, no follow up. So contact tracing in Georgia, USA is a joke.
Anonymous Coward
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10/22/2020 06:34 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 308
Just a note about so called "Contact tracing". My niece, who, like many others in her freshmen college class got the virus came home and self quarantined for 14 days at home after getting cold symptoms and testing positive. No one else in the house got sick. A week or so later a "telemarketer" type called up and unprofessionally introduced himself wanting to where she had been and with whom she had come in contact with. They hung up on the moron, no follow up. So contact tracing in Georgia, USA is a joke.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 14052223


oops
Anonymous Coward
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10/22/2020 06:50 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 308
Things are bad now...wait until next week.


And if you are "lucky" to live until next week...just wait and see what comes once November is here
, because they, the governments, TPTB, the elites, Reptilians, whoever you think rules us, CHOSE TO POSTPONE FULL LOCK-DOWNS until 30% positivity, in the HOPE that it won't get there, or if it does get there, will start to subside, and the economy will be saved.


They are wrong. It won't stop at 30%, it won't subside, the medical systems will collapse, the society will start to crack...and the economy will STILL NOT BE SAVED.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


What are you talking about !? 50% of the people hospitalized here are people who tested positive but are assymptomatic.

Everything is almost back to normal already...

You are delusional. You said 4 months ago that society would collapse in the summer, now you are saying in the fall... I'm sure soon enough it will be in the winter, then in 2021, then 2022... your ''model'' has been wrong since the beginning.

bsflag
 Quoting: The Only

hesright

Nothing but doom since April in this thread.

Maybe go outside. We're not all dead.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79311309


You go down to your local hospital. Stand in the hall and wait for that kid who is dressed in a uniform. When he/she stops to answer your question, take note that they are maybe 17 years old, haven't finished school and are living on dreams.

They are the floor's first line of defense. The rest of the crew are exhausted and cannot be found. Hospitals have played their staffing to tight for years. They do not have enough staff on a good day. The workers who work don't last long due to job hazards. They successfully kept the unions out by creating their own associations, slight of hands for the employees.

Now the admissions don't stop and the already short handed staff slap O2 on, start an IV and get papers signed.

The patient may not see another nurse for 12 hours.

Now come back and post what you see and think.

I can tell you who is delusional.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 75535013



I mean, doesn't really seem like that in the real world. Maybe on ABC or CBS or whatever.

https://imgur.com/gv8NJkQ
Anonymous Coward
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10/22/2020 08:28 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 308
So are we looking at the UK losing control by the end of October?
 Quoting: The Gathering Storm


Not just UK, but practically the whole Europe.
Anonymous Coward
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Czech Republic
10/23/2020 12:30 AM
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Ireland's government is considering going back into a full national lockdown for six weeks, Sky News understands.

Sky's Ireland correspondent Stephen Murphy called it
a "surprise move".

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79471260

Of course, it's the MSM.
Anonymous Coward
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10/23/2020 12:37 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 308
France

The incidence rate in Roubaix(near Belgium Border) is 1,135 COVID19 cases per 100,000 inhabitants despite the closure of gyms and bars. Positivity of the tests: 22%

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79471260

THIS IS EVIDENCE THERE HAVE BEEN SUPERSPRADER EVENTS GOING ON.

This is all that's needed. You can close anything you want.
Anonymous Coward
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Czech Republic
10/23/2020 12:43 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 308
VERY IMPORTANT UPDATE :



Important notes :

1.Testing kits are not reliable
2.African countries, India, South and Central America countries, Eastern Europe countries, Pakistan, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Cambodia, other SE Asian countries, all former Soviet republics, most Middle East either don't have testing kits, laboratories or simply are unable/unwilling to detect/confirm the COVID19 cases.
About 70% of the population outside China belong to the above countries - cca. 4.4 billion people, labeled as Category B countries.
3.Western Europe, Japan, the U.S., South Korea, Australia, New Zeeland, Singapore are most likely not confirming COVID19 cases to postpone the panic and prop the markets.
About 30% of the population outside China belong to the above countries - cca. 1.9 billion people, labeled as Category A countries.
4.Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau are considered as a part of the countries and cities outside China.

5.Confirmed cases are still announced the day after the testing is done (24hr lag).

The model is based on a number of 2,000-2,500 infected people outside China, on January 28th, with an infection rate that is doubling every 2.5 days.

Los Alamos Labs study, peer reviewed, acknowledges an infection rate doubling every 2.4 days..

[link to arxiv.org (secure)]

The novel coronavirus (2019‐nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread
widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2
to 2.7.
(from the study).

The previous model was based on an R0 of 2.4-2.6, with a 70-80% contagion chance, which resulted in an infection rate that was doubling every 22 hrs.. I was using the data that was known at that point.

World population outside China, with their respective share of infected cases (higher for India and Africa) :
India : 1,400,000,000 - (22,29%) - infected share: 27%
Africa : 1,216,000,000 - (19.35%) - infected share: 23%
North America : 368,000,000 - 5,85% : infected share: 5%
Central America + South America : 608,000,000 - 9.68% - infected share: 9%
Europe : 747,000,000 - 11.90% - infected share: 9%
Asia (minus China and India) : 1,900,000 - 30.25% - infected share: 27%


January(infected people):
28th : 2,000-2,500
29th : 3,200-4,000
30th : 4,400-5,500
31st : 5,600-7,000

February(infected people):
1st : 6,800-8,500
2nd : 8,000-10,000
3rd : 12,800-16,000

4th : 17,600-22,000
Presenting symptoms : 1,000-1,250
Serious/critical cases (18%): 202.

5th : 22,400-28,000
Presenting symptoms : 1,600-2,000

6th : 27,200-34,000 (275 confirmed, 20 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 2,200-2,750

7th : 32,000-40,000 (327 confirmed, 61 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 2,800-3,500
Serious/critical cases (18%): 567.

8th : 51,200-64,000 (354 confirmed, 64 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 3,400-4,250

9th : 70,400-88,000 (379 confirmed, 70 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 4,000-5,000

10th : 89,600-112,000 (461 confirmed, 135 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 6,400-8,000
Serious/critical cases (18%): 1,296.

11th : 108,800-136,000 (517 confirmed, 174 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 8,800-11,000 (+3,485 added from the staggered numbers from previous 7 days), for a median number of 13,355 for this day.
Serious/critical cases (18%): 2,403.

12th : 128,000-160,000 (523 confirmed, 174 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 11,200-14,000

13th : 204,800-256,000 (586 confirmed, 218 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 13,600-17,000
Serious/critical cases (18%): 2,754.

14th : 281,600-352,000 (608 confirmed, 218 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 16,000-20,000

15th : 358,400-448,000 (697 confirmed, 285 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 26,100-32,000

16th : 435,200-544,000 (781 confirmed, 355 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 35,200-44,000
Serious/critical cases (18%): 7,128.

17th : 512,000-640,000(896 confirmed, 454 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 44,800-56,000

18th : 819,000-1,024,000(999 confirmed, 542 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 54,400-68,000 (+20,048 added from the staggered numbers from previous 7 days), for a median number of 81,248 for this day.
Serious/critical cases (18%): 14,624.

19th : 1,126,000-1,408,000(1,116 confirmed, 621 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 64,000-80,000

20th : 1,433,000-1,792,000(1,198 confirmed, 634 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 102,400-128,000

21st : 1,740,000-2,176,000(1,379 confirmed, 634 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 140,800-176,000
N.America share (5%) : 87,000-108,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 7,040-8,800

Europe share (9%) : 156,000-195,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 12,672-15,840


22nd : 2,048,000-2,560,000(1,695 confirmed, 634 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 179,200-224,000
Serious/critical cases (18%): 36,288.
N.America share (5%) : 102,400-128,000 infected
Presenting symptoms :8,960-11,200

Europe share (9%) : 184,000-230,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 16,120-oioooooo


23rd : 3,277,000-4,096,000(2,052 confirmed, 691 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 217,600-272,000
N.America share (5%) : 163,850-204,800 infected
Presenting symptoms : 10,880-13,600

Europe share (9%) : 294,930-368,640 infected
Presenting symptoms : 19,500-24,500


24th : 4,506,000-5,632,000(2,429 confirmed, 691 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 256,000-320,000 (+128,953 added from the staggered numbers from previous 7 days), for a median number of 421,453 for this day.
Serious/critical cases (18%): 75,861.
N.America share (5%) : 225,300-281,600 infected
Presenting symptoms : 12,800-16,000

Europe share (9%) : 405,000-506,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 23,000-28,800

25th : 5,735,000-7,168,000(2,754 confirmed, 691 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 409,500-512,000


26th : 6,964,000-8,704,000(3,316 confirmed, 705 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 563,000-704,000
Serious/critical cases (18%): 114,030



27th : 8,192,000-10,240,000(4,270 confirmed, 705 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 716,500-896,000
N.America share (5%) : 409,600-512,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 35,800-44,800

Europe share (9%) : 737,000-921,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 64,500-80,600


28th : 13,107,000-16,384,000(5,315 confirmed, 705 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 870,000-1,088,000


29th : 18,022,000-22,528,000
Presenting symptoms :1,024,000-1,280,000
Serious/critical cases (18%): 207,360.


March(infected people):
1st : 22,937,000-28,672,000
Presenting symptoms : 1,638,500-2,048,000
N.America share (5%) : 1,146,800-1,433,600 infected
Presenting symptoms : 81,925-102,000

Europe share (9%) : 2,064,000-2,580,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 147,400-184,300


2nd : 27,852,000-34,816,000(10,293 confirmed, 706 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 2,253,000-2,816,000 (+610,807 added from the staggered numbers from previous 7 days), for a median number of 3,145,307 for this day.
Serious/critical cases (18%): 566,165.


3rd : 32,768,000-40,960,000(12,632 confirmed, 706 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 2,867,500-3,584,000
N.America share (5%) : 1,638,400-2,048,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 143,300-179,000

Europe share (9%) : 2,949,000-3,686,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 258,000-322,000


March 8th : 131 mil. to 200 mil. infected.
Presenting symptoms : 11.4 mil to 14.3 mil.

N.America share (5%) : 6.5 mil to 10 mil. infected
Presenting symptoms in N.A : 573k to 716k
Serious cases in N.America : 103k to 128k

Europe share (9%) : 11.7 mil to 18 mil.
Presenting symptoms in Europe : 1 mil. to 1.3 mil.
Serious cases in Europe : 180k to 234k




In the last days, most officially confirmed cases were detected roughly 7 days after symptoms appeared. There were some exceptions, with 15-21 days incubation period, but most were in the 7 day range.

However, a significant number of infected people will be asymptomatic for 12-14 or more days, which is roughly 40-50% of the infected people, at a given date. I will round it up to 50%.

The remaining 50% will be staggered for an additional 7 days, but in order to avoid adding a ton of numbers for every day, I will add them up every 7 days.

Applying this to my model, the number of symptomatic people on February 5th is about half the number of infected people on January 28th.

I will add the serious and critical cases (18% of the total) every 3-4 days and the days with the added staggered cases.

The current model points to an overload of the healthcare systems in Europe and the U.S. to start around mid-March, with Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan to start feeling the pressure at the end of February.

The former model was pointing that the healthcare systems would start feeling the pressure around mid-February for Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan, with Europe and U.S. by early March.

The former model was off by about 2 weeks.


The new model will have its critical period between March 2nd-March 8th.

---------------------------------------------------------
 Quoting: deplorable recollector

This is OP's first post in this thread. Obviously OP changed it later on. However beneath this post it says "Last Edited by Lady Jayne Smith on 10/22/2020 12:16 PM"

I don't really feel easy about this. Why did a mod change this post and how did she change it?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 79460334
Czech Republic
10/23/2020 12:47 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 308
Master DR, I have no words to describe the gratitude for your work.

I've been following your thread since the first post, and after validating and re-validating the numbers (because I'm also a master of numbers), I decided in January to remodel my whole life to escape the horrible future that awaits the cities.

I used all the credit lines I had, (fuck the banks), invested everything in crypto and physical gold, recovered the investments, spent everything on resources useful for survival, and have lived in the jungle, building a refuge with my own hands. It has been months of a lot of struggle, but it is just what is expected of a family man, who is a man and defends his family.

I quit my job, burned my name at the banks, and I'm called crazy even by my mother. I chose the path of no return. In my country it is said "I burned the caravels". But I'm still sure I did the right thing.

Hundreds of people had access to your work through me. Its reach is not limited to visitors to this forum, nor is it limited to interweb users.

My family and I are very grateful.
His wisdom and work were our compass.


Note: english is not my language.
 Quoting: Mr.Borg


I hope you are not trolling, but if not, you kind of overreacted, albeit I think in the mid term you might be proven to have made a very good decision.
 Quoting: Red Hot Chilean Pepe

If so, he would certainly be well prepared!
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 79460334
Czech Republic
10/23/2020 12:52 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 308
I am preparing an update for Thursday, with a list of countries in Europe that based on my calculations, lost the control of the epidemic already, or are very close to lose it.


I am also trying to determine if the lock-downs are really off the table, or it's just that Europe is waiting for the U.S. elections results, before deciding in favor or against lock-downs.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Look forward to it.

Wonder if wales locking down will it push others todo the same
 Quoting: Covid19sars2.0



I don't see why Wales lock-down is relevant. We're talking a very small population size.


Doesn't matter what such small entities do or don't.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector

Belgium is looking towards a lockdown. In the media experts and anyone else is very diffident about it, they are all very evasive except for complaining about it all being too little too late, but they keep saying they want to avoid a lockdown... I'm not buying it, they know very well it's coming fast. The city of Liege have been overwhelmed with new COVID cases to the point where jouralists from abroad have come to visit and gather news stories. The people themselves mostly sstill seem all willing to follow the narrative.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 79460334
Czech Republic
10/23/2020 12:56 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 308
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79471260


Ireland - Republic of - full lockdown for 6 weeks, announcement tonight 9pm.
Govt tried to hold out against it, medical authorities -NPHET - won that battle. Ireland has a very shaky public health service at the best of times.
This is emphatically NOT the best of times, case numbers ^ above exponential growth *
Here in UK situation seems utterly chaotic.
Many thanks to DR for so much work. Followed since early Spring.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79512947



The current lvl 5 proposal in Ireland is a "soft" lvl 5...because schools remain open.


Full lock-down, with schools open? Full lock-down with workplaces open?


It's not even a lock-down.


Calling what Ireland is preparing to do , a full lock-down, is very far from what actually is.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector

I wonder who it is they are trying to fool? Look no further: it's their own population.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 79460334
Czech Republic
10/23/2020 01:01 AM
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Master DR, I have no words to describe the gratitude for your work.

I've been following your thread since the first post, and after validating and re-validating the numbers (because I'm also a master of numbers), I decided in January to remodel my whole life to escape the horrible future that awaits the cities.

I used all the credit lines I had, (fuck the banks), invested everything in crypto and physical gold, recovered the investments, spent everything on resources useful for survival, and have lived in the jungle, building a refuge with my own hands. It has been months of a lot of struggle, but it is just what is expected of a family man, who is a man and defends his family.

I quit my job, burned my name at the banks, and I'm called crazy even by my mother. I chose the path of no return. In my country it is said "I burned the caravels". But I'm still sure I did the right thing.

Hundreds of people had access to your work through me. Its reach is not limited to visitors to this forum, nor is it limited to interweb users.

My family and I are very grateful.
His wisdom and work were our compass.


Note: english is not my language.
 Quoting: Mr.Borg


Mr. Borg,

Interesting Name, Not a Bot are you ?

In 3 Months everyone here Will Understand

You Sir, Are the Smartest Man on GLP.

Good Luck to You Sir and May God Bless Your Efforts.

I'll see you on the Other Side.

Michael

 Quoting: Hnry Bwmn

Stop calling everyone a bot...; those posters you are calling bots are VERY OBVIOUSLY posting thoughtful comments.

You have some issues.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 79460334
Czech Republic
10/23/2020 01:08 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 308
I am preparing an update for Thursday, with a list of countries in Europe that based on my calculations, lost the control of the epidemic already, or are very close to lose it.


I am also trying to determine if the lock-downs are really off the table, or it's just that Europe is waiting for the U.S. elections results, before deciding in favor or against lock-downs.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector

I am almost certain this is what they are doing in Belgium, as yesterday (or the day before) someone on TV was mentioning Nov 2nd as some sort of decisive date (talking within the Belgian pandemic context).
Anonymous Coward
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Czech Republic
10/23/2020 02:04 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 308
Interim numbers here are 8840, again higher than I’ve seen before. Prime minister is commenting that an infection rate of around 15,000 can be expected for the final tally tomorrow.

So most shops apart from essentials are to close.The government is admitting, that if these measures are not taken, the hospital system would crash by November 7th-11th. Even hearing talks about refrigerated trucks. Imagine these numbers keep rising up until November 7th-11th?! From what I understand the state of emergency is in effect until November 3rd.

How on earth will this mini break do any good? Cant see that happening. So it’ll be interesting how this goes until early November.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77356084



Your government is lying. Czech medical system collapsed several days ago, when Czechia started to transfer patients to Germany.


The moment a country cannot support all its patients, the medical system collapsed.

 Quoting: deplorable recollector

SAME FOR BELGIUM.

They have already transferred (or are trying to) patients to Germany, but they are keeping up the pretense on TV.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 79460334
Czech Republic
10/23/2020 02:07 AM
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Interim numbers here are 8840, again higher than I’ve seen before. Prime minister is commenting that an infection rate of around 15,000 can be expected for the final tally tomorrow.

So most shops apart from essentials are to close.The government is admitting, that if these measures are not taken, the hospital system would crash by November 7th-11th. Even hearing talks about refrigerated trucks. Imagine these numbers keep rising up until November 7th-11th?! From what I understand the state of emergency is in effect until November 3rd.

How on earth will this mini break do any good? Cant see that happening. So it’ll be interesting how this goes until early November.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77356084


Thank for your first hand experience - this is really telling.

Please stay as safe as you can!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78614390

I would think this should not be too hard in the Czech Republic. Outside Prague and other cities, population density is rather low.
Anonymous Coward
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Thailand
10/23/2020 05:28 AM
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Hospitalizations, not cases, is what should be closely watched. I'm not seeing doom at all.
Hnry Bwmn
Snark, Snark

User ID: 79450053
United States
10/23/2020 06:17 AM

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France

The incidence rate in Roubaix(near Belgium Border) is 1,135 COVID19 cases per 100,000 inhabitants despite the closure of gyms and bars. Positivity of the tests: 22%

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79471260

THIS IS EVIDENCE THERE HAVE BEEN SUPERSPRADER EVENTS GOING ON.

This is all that's needed. You can close anything you want.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79460334


It ALSO shows us that YES

This Fukker IS Contagious during the stages

LEADING up to showing symptoms
}> Asymptomatic Victims ARE Viral 'Shedders' <{
Let me put it another way,

you are ALL InfuKKted

With a second, more Nasty version from Gates?
[ Being Released, or Rather BEEN Released ]

Yer all Screwed Too.


Last Edited by Hnry Bwmn on 10/23/2020 06:19 AM
"Pissed Off American Patriot"
Retired Union Millwright, Turbine Mechanic {I retired at 55}
I Speak Slowly, Say Little, A FuKK I Do Not Give

<Seeker of the Black Crown>

Hnry Bwmn
Snark, Snark

User ID: 79450053
United States
10/23/2020 06:24 AM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 308
Master DR, I have no words to describe the gratitude for your work.

I've been following your thread since the first post, and after validating and re-validating the numbers (because I'm also a master of numbers), I decided in January to remodel my whole life to escape the horrible future that awaits the cities.

I used all the credit lines I had, (fuck the banks), invested everything in crypto and physical gold, recovered the investments, spent everything on resources useful for survival, and have lived in the jungle, building a refuge with my own hands. It has been months of a lot of struggle, but it is just what is expected of a family man, who is a man and defends his family.

I quit my job, burned my name at the banks, and I'm called crazy even by my mother. I chose the path of no return. In my country it is said "I burned the caravels". But I'm still sure I did the right thing.

Hundreds of people had access to your work through me. Its reach is not limited to visitors to this forum, nor is it limited to interweb users.

My family and I are very grateful.
His wisdom and work were our compass.


Note: english is not my language.
 Quoting: Mr.Borg


Mr. Borg,

Interesting Name, Not a Bot are you ?

In 3 Months everyone here Will Understand

You Sir, Are the Smartest Man on GLP.

Good Luck to You Sir and May God Bless Your Efforts.

I'll see you on the Other Side.

Michael

 Quoting: Hnry Bwmn

Stop calling everyone a bot...; those posters you are calling bots are VERY OBVIOUSLY posting thoughtful comments.

You have some issues.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79460334


And You Sir Cannot Detect Humor.

You Also have issues.

Are YOU a Bot ??

"Pissed Off American Patriot"
Retired Union Millwright, Turbine Mechanic {I retired at 55}
I Speak Slowly, Say Little, A FuKK I Do Not Give

<Seeker of the Black Crown>

Anonymous Coward
User ID: 76202866
United States
10/23/2020 06:54 AM
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...


What are you talking about !? 50% of the people hospitalized here are people who tested positive but are assymptomatic.

Everything is almost back to normal already...

You are delusional. You said 4 months ago that society would collapse in the summer, now you are saying in the fall... I'm sure soon enough it will be in the winter, then in 2021, then 2022... your ''model'' has been wrong since the beginning.

bsflag
 Quoting: The Only

hesright

Nothing but doom since April in this thread.

Maybe go outside. We're not all dead.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79311309


You go down to your local hospital. Stand in the hall and wait for that kid who is dressed in a uniform. When he/she stops to answer your question, take note that they are maybe 17 years old, haven't finished school and are living on dreams.

They are the floor's first line of defense. The rest of the crew are exhausted and cannot be found. Hospitals have played their staffing to tight for years. They do not have enough staff on a good day. The workers who work don't last long due to job hazards. They successfully kept the unions out by creating their own associations, slight of hands for the employees.

Now the admissions don't stop and the already short handed staff slap O2 on, start an IV and get papers signed.

The patient may not see another nurse for 12 hours.

Now come back and post what you see and think.

I can tell you who is delusional.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 75535013



I mean, doesn't really seem like that in the real world. Maybe on ABC or CBS or whatever.

https://imgur.com/gv8NJkQ

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79313886


Read what you posted. The staff that where laid off are elective surgery paper pushers with little hands on patient care experience because State mandated closure and/or citizens volunteer to stay away. They are closing out the the facelifts and fanny tuck clinics for focus on the in-house medical floor expansions, the dungeons where they put the real sick and dying. Consolidation.

This is where you need to go.
I'll give it to you that hospitals are complicated but Google is not the same as walking into the hospital and taking a look at what is going on.

Seriously. Then take the next step and volunteer for some time. Offer to hold a dying Covid patients hand. They might even give you a free meal.
ParamedicUK

User ID: 66982288
United Kingdom
10/23/2020 07:09 AM
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AC - LJS probably updates the title to update 281 ??
deplorable recollector  (OP)

User ID: 73110508
Romania
10/23/2020 07:14 AM
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"This is OP's first post in this thread. Obviously OP changed it later on. However beneath this post it says "Last Edited by Lady Jayne Smith on 10/22/2020 12:16 PM"

I don't really feel easy about this. Why did a mod change this post and how did she change it?"




The main post, on the first page of the thread, was changed ONCE, when I updated the model, to reflect new data, from Los Alamos Labs, which was made public in early February.

Since then, not a single comma was edited in the main post.


Lady Jane Smith only updated the TITLE of the thread, couple times when I forgot to do it, after an update.


The OP obviously did NOT changed anything, because if I would have done it, I would have lost my credibility.


The model paused in mid-March, when lock-downs started, because no one can predict how a pandemic evolves or devolves, when world does into full lock-down, an event that NEVER took place before in history.


When the resurgence in the U.S. started in the Summer, I used the model projections, again, and based on those projections, I have predicted the number of epicenters in the U.S. and the Brazil plateau, which were both confirmed to occur when I said it will.

The same model was used to predict the beginning of second wave in Europe, which started when I projected, it developed through September and October exactly as I projected.


To this very date, the model is still the SAME MODEL that was posted on early February, on the main thread, and it was not modified, AT ALL...because IT IS VERY GOOD WORKING MODEL.


Everyone present in this thread since the beginning, knows that the numbers on the main post were UNCHANGED since February.

Last Edited by deplorable recollector on 10/23/2020 07:14 AM
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 79527466
Italy
10/23/2020 07:19 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 308
From main thread

It's Game Over for switzerland.
26.5%

[link to www.blick.ch (secure)]

siren2
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78275591


"Friday 23 October: BAG reports 6,634 new crown cases - 26.5% positivity rate
In the past 24 hours, a total of 6,634 new coronary infections have been reported in Switzerland and Liechtenstein. According to the Federal Office of Public Health (BAG), 25,061 tests were carried out. The positivity rate is 26.5 percent. Ten people died of Corona. 117 people were hospitalized"
deplorable recollector  (OP)

User ID: 73110508
Romania
10/23/2020 07:21 AM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 308
Hospitalizations, not cases, is what should be closely watched. I'm not seeing doom at all.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79527343



You watch whatever number you want.


I am watching them ALL, because the difference between you and me is that I am looking at the big picture.


You want to watch hospitalization? Be my guest. Take the data from September 1st, in Europe, and the data from yesterday.

See the difference in hospitalizations. And if you there, look at ICU also.


And if you managed to do AT LEAST THAT, see where this is going, and going fast.



But, since you will NEVER bother to spend any time in actually LOOKING at the same very thing you are suggesting (hospitalizations), come back on this thread on November 1st, and tell me again if you see no doom.


You think anyone cares about Thailand?


If Europe goes in full lock-down, the entire world is going to be economically affected, because it will start a domino effect, causing the U.S. economy to crumble, and right after that, China's economy...because China's massive economic output is what it is because Europe and the U.S. are the biggest buyers of China's crap.


If Thailand is erased from the map today, the world won't even blink.


So, don't look outside your window to see doom...the doom is NOT there.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 79527466
Italy
10/23/2020 08:01 AM
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From Repubblica, today

"More and more children and newborns positive for Covid. In the spring we thought that the little ones were immune, but now we hospitalize even a few months old children for respiratory problems", according to "The Breakfast Club" on Radio Capital Massimiliano Spiccia, coordinator of the resuscitation department of the Regina Margherita hospital in Turin. "Children have Covid symptoms that are found among adults. The little sick people are helped with assisted ventilation and also with blood purification. The situation is much more dramatic than in March. We are in difficulty."

[link to translate.google.it (secure)]
Gamechanger 2.0
User ID: 77356084
Czech Republic
10/23/2020 08:04 AM
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Interim numbers here are 8840, again higher than I’ve seen before. Prime minister is commenting that an infection rate of around 15,000 can be expected for the final tally tomorrow.

So most shops apart from essentials are to close.The government is admitting, that if these measures are not taken, the hospital system would crash by November 7th-11th. Even hearing talks about refrigerated trucks. Imagine these numbers keep rising up until November 7th-11th?! From what I understand the state of emergency is in effect until November 3rd.

How on earth will this mini break do any good? Cant see that happening. So it’ll be interesting how this goes until early November.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77356084


Thank for your first hand experience - this is really telling.

Please stay as safe as you can!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78614390

I would think this should not be too hard in the Czech Republic. Outside Prague and other cities, population density is rather low.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79460334


But the significant majority of the towns are made up of soviet apartment style blocks. Small towns but with a high population density. Back in the UK towns would be 3-4 times the sq mile size of these to contain the same population. Also more people are funneled Into the same facilities, due to their being less. Are you based in Czech btw?





GLP