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CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281

 
superflyscot

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01/28/2020 02:58 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
My company (a large American one) has given this message to staff today;

Out of an abundance of caution and based on guidance from health authorities,***** is restricting business travel to and from China until further notice unless approved by an L8 leader or above for business critical reasons. Further, we are recommending that employees returning from travel to impacted areas in China – including Chibi, Ezhou, Huanggang, Lichuan, and Wuhan (all Hubei province) – work with their manager and HRBP to coordinate work-from-home arrangements for at least 14 days, and seek medical attention prior to returning to the office if you are experiencing symptoms.

shitjustgotreal

somuchdoom
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HE-B-GB

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01/28/2020 02:59 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
OP,

As of right now, do you think a 10% kill rate is a safe calculation for a general projection?

If so, that would mean that aside from China, there could be around 100,000 dead or dying.

Last Edited by HE-B-GB on 01/28/2020 03:01 PM
“If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.”

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girlie45

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01/28/2020 03:00 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
you and I both know the RO number of 2.6 is bullpucky

more like 9.5--
 Quoting: Jake


No, I am going to say 5.0, and travel will not be stopped. This is intentional.
G3
G3

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01/28/2020 03:00 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
My company (a large American one) has given this message to staff today;

Out of an abundance of caution and based on guidance from health authorities,***** is restricting business travel to and from China until further notice unless approved by an L8 leader or above for business critical reasons. Further, we are recommending that employees returning from travel to impacted areas in China – including Chibi, Ezhou, Huanggang, Lichuan, and Wuhan (all Hubei province) – work with their manager and HRBP to coordinate work-from-home arrangements for at least 14 days, and seek medical attention prior to returning to the office if you are experiencing symptoms.

shitjustgotreal

somuchdoom
 Quoting: superflyscot


gameover
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 03:02 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
Call the President demand all chinese fights be stopped
PHONE NUMBERS
Comments: 202-456-1111
Switchboard: 202-456-1414

 Quoting: Jake


Evacuees are going to California.
2hot2handle

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01/28/2020 03:02 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
Any idea how the virus acts/spreads in colder/warmer temperatures or is there any difference?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 43196947


Yes. I heard it spreads more easily in warmer climates so if this becomes a world wide pandemic it will hit warmer climates harder than colder climates like Canada, Northern Europe and Northern Asia.
Security without liberty is called Prison. - Benjamin Franklin

End the lock down now!
---------------
Lily
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01/28/2020 03:03 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
Quarantining all cities etc would tank the economy and make things worse.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73848670


already happening in China.

Economic fallout is massive.

That is why .....I personally am so alarmed.


Chinese would never do this unless things are really bad
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78399578


This is a bald fact. One of the few available.
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 03:03 PM
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Its not really going to harm the economy that much, if by the time we figure out the vaccine, (6months?) after the quarantines are lifted there will be mass shopping sprees and demand for all types of goods, it will allow the economy to rebound, the central banks will have to absorb the depression in the GDPs and we pay it back through increased tax and austerity.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78403405


Good luck paying for the cure in this money over everything world.
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 03:04 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
Lily
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01/28/2020 03:04 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
Call the President demand all chinese fights be stopped
PHONE NUMBERS
Comments: 202-456-1111
Switchboard: 202-456-1414

 Quoting: Jake


Evacuees are going to California.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76489528


Don't worry, San Francisco has an emergency plan.
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 03:04 PM
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gasp
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 03:05 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
From the beginning, I want to specify that my model is only for the infection rate. Not death rate, and not confirmed cases by the authorities and governments. It is a mathematical model, based on 4 separate patterns :

-Chinese official number
-The commonly accepted R0 of 2.6 among many epidemiologists
-The Spanish Flu R0 of 1.8
-The weaponized virus R0 > 5

Starting from January 16th, all the patterns, except the one based on an Ro of 2.6 failed to apply.

The R0 = 2.6 pattern still stands, for China. However, considering that China is still allowing free travel among all provinces except Tibet (least populated and most isolated one) and Hubei (the epicenter of the pandemic), the R0 will jump over 3 by Sunday, February 2nd.

For the developed countries, with better hygiene, long history of flu (herd immunization) and high quality medical system, the R0 was skewed (for the time being) to 2.2.

If the developed countries will not stop ALL travel by Sunday, Feb. 2nd, the R0 will jump to 2.6.


Everyone can do their own math, applying an R0 = 2.2, for the develop countries, 2.4 for Asian countries and 2.6 for China, while adjusting the index for infection spread chance to 0.7-0.8.
As an example 10 x 2.2 x 0.7, for developed countries and 10 x 2.2 x 0.8 for SE Asia, South and Central America and Africa.

For those that don't want to do that, here is the infection spread, worldwide (except China mainland), starting with today, January 28th, with all the numbers adjusted :


January 28th 00:00 GMT :
Between 3,000 and 4,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 37-38 cases.

January 29th, 00:00 GMT :
Between 5,200 and 7,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 67-69 cases.

January 30th, 00:00 GMT : Between 8,000 and 12,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 103-106 cases.

January 31st, 00:00 GMT : 12,300 - 20,100 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 158 - 168 cases.

February 1st, 00:00 GMT : 18,900 - 30,900 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 243 - 258

February 2nd, 00:00 GMT : 29,100 - 47,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 374 - 397.

If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate.These are the numbers :

February 3rd, 00:00 GMT : 48,000 - 78,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 617 - 655

February 4th, 00:00 GMT : 79,200 - 128,700 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 1,018 - 1,080.

If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate.These are the numbers :

February 5th, 00:00 GMT : 139,000 - 226,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 1,790 - 1,900.


From this date on, the pandemic no longer can be contained, without full quarantine, at least for all major cities across the world. This will come with total economic collapse and the panic that will be widespread.

The huge difference between the number of infected in my model, is because most populated countries are also underdeveloped, and the virus will affect much more people in India and SE Asia.

If full or at last partial quarantine is not implemented by February 5th, in major cities across the world, the pandemic will spread as follow (adjusted for higher R0 and higher index for infection spread chance), with the mention that the numbers will be the median ones :

Feb 6th :345,000 infected with 3,600 presenting symptoms
Feb 7th :690,000 infected with 7,500 presenting symptoms
Feb 8th : 1,435,000 / 15,600
Feb 9th : 2,980,000 / 27,456
Feb 10th: 6,240,000 / 57,100
Feb 11th: 12,979,000 / 118,100
Feb 12th: 27,990,000 / 245,600
Feb 13th: 58,220,000 / 509,600
Feb 14th:121,970,000 /1,060,000
Feb 15th:253,697,000 /2,204,800

From February 16th, multiple health systems across the world will collapse.Hospitals will be overcrowded and unable to test and treat most of the patients.The social fabric will completely collapse, and the governments, if they delayed the quarantines, will have no other choice but to lock-down hundreds of millions of people in major and large to medium cities, with hundreds of millions more self-isolating in smaller cities, towns and villages.

There might be slight variations in my model, if some countries implement some travel restrictions here and there, some quarantines here and there...but anything except total quarantine is not going to work, but only delay the infection by mere DAYS.


I am going to end with what matters the most, for my model to HOPEFULLY fail :

FULL INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL MUST STOP BY FEB.3RD.
FULL LOCAL TRAVEL IN AFFECTED COUNTRIES MUST STOP BY FEB. 5TH.


If the above measures are not taking place, the pandemic will be catastrophic.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Do you believe in flat earth theory? If true, as numerous of your karma comments suggest, then thank you for sharing your figures, which I must now take with an ENORMOUS grain of salt.
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 03:05 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
From the beginning, I want to specify that my model is only for the infection rate. Not death rate, and not confirmed cases by the authorities and governments. It is a mathematical model, based on 4 separate patterns :

-Chinese official number
-The commonly accepted R0 of 2.6 among many epidemiologists
-The Spanish Flu R0 of 1.8
-The weaponized virus R0 > 5

Starting from January 16th, all the patterns, except the one based on an Ro of 2.6 failed to apply.

The R0 = 2.6 pattern still stands, for China. However, considering that China is still allowing free travel among all provinces except Tibet (least populated and most isolated one) and Hubei (the epicenter of the pandemic), the R0 will jump over 3 by Sunday, February 2nd.

For the developed countries, with better hygiene, long history of flu (herd immunization) and high quality medical system, the R0 was skewed (for the time being) to 2.2.

If the developed countries will not stop ALL travel by Sunday, Feb. 2nd, the R0 will jump to 2.6.


Everyone can do their own math, applying an R0 = 2.2, for the develop countries, 2.4 for Asian countries and 2.6 for China, while adjusting the index for infection spread chance to 0.7-0.8.
As an example 10 x 2.2 x 0.7, for developed countries and 10 x 2.2 x 0.8 for SE Asia, South and Central America and Africa.

For those that don't want to do that, here is the infection spread, worldwide (except China mainland), starting with today, January 28th, with all the numbers adjusted :


January 28th 00:00 GMT :
Between 3,000 and 4,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 37-38 cases.

January 29th, 00:00 GMT :
Between 5,200 and 7,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 67-69 cases.

January 30th, 00:00 GMT : Between 8,000 and 12,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 103-106 cases.

January 31st, 00:00 GMT : 12,300 - 20,100 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 158 - 168 cases.

February 1st, 00:00 GMT : 18,900 - 30,900 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 243 - 258

February 2nd, 00:00 GMT : 29,100 - 47,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 374 - 397.

If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate.These are the numbers :

February 3rd, 00:00 GMT : 48,000 - 78,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 617 - 655

February 4th, 00:00 GMT : 79,200 - 128,700 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 1,018 - 1,080.

If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate.These are the numbers :

February 5th, 00:00 GMT : 139,000 - 226,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 1,790 - 1,900.


From this date on, the pandemic no longer can be contained, without full quarantine, at least for all major cities across the world. This will come with total economic collapse and the panic that will be widespread.

The huge difference between the number of infected in my model, is because most populated countries are also underdeveloped, and the virus will affect much more people in India and SE Asia.

If full or at last partial quarantine is not implemented by February 5th, in major cities across the world, the pandemic will spread as follow (adjusted for higher R0 and higher index for infection spread chance), with the mention that the numbers will be the median ones :

Feb 6th :345,000 infected with 3,600 presenting symptoms
Feb 7th :690,000 infected with 7,500 presenting symptoms
Feb 8th : 1,435,000 / 15,600
Feb 9th : 2,980,000 / 27,456
Feb 10th: 6,240,000 / 57,100
Feb 11th: 12,979,000 / 118,100
Feb 12th: 27,990,000 / 245,600
Feb 13th: 58,220,000 / 509,600
Feb 14th:121,970,000 /1,060,000
Feb 15th:253,697,000 /2,204,800

From February 16th, multiple health systems across the world will collapse.Hospitals will be overcrowded and unable to test and treat most of the patients.The social fabric will completely collapse, and the governments, if they delayed the quarantines, will have no other choice but to lock-down hundreds of millions of people in major and large to medium cities, with hundreds of millions more self-isolating in smaller cities, towns and villages.

There might be slight variations in my model, if some countries implement some travel restrictions here and there, some quarantines here and there...but anything except total quarantine is not going to work, but only delay the infection by mere DAYS.


I am going to end with what matters the most, for my model to HOPEFULLY fail :

FULL INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL MUST STOP BY FEB.3RD.
FULL LOCAL TRAVEL IN AFFECTED COUNTRIES MUST STOP BY FEB. 5TH.


If the above measures are not taking place, the pandemic will be catastrophic.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Huh?
pick
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 03:05 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
I have a question if anyone might know.

Lots of people live paycheck to paycheck in low end jobs, struggling to pay bills and rent.

In the USA if the virus gets so bad that work places close and society begins to collapse.

Does the USA government step up to stop things like utility bills if no one can go to work?

We would all still need water to flush toilets, right?
MotorCityMadMan

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01/28/2020 03:05 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
We all know damn well the US isn’t going to quarantine shit and not close boarders by February 3rd, the Super Bowl is February 2nd!
Drink up, Shoot in, Let the beatings begin.
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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01/28/2020 03:06 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
I don't think you can develop any predictions based off the phony numbers that the Chinese authorities have given because the numbers are obviously very low. No one quarantines a city of a 11 million people for 26 deaths. There are more deaths from the flu and cities are not quarantined for that. The Chinese authorities obviously know what this virus is and where it comes from and roughly how many people are being infected and dying. Obviously there will be people who are not counted among the dead and infected because they don't go to a hospital with it and instead stay home or they don't know they have it yet.
 Quoting: 2hot2handle


My model started with 4 patterns.

3 of them, including the one based on Chinese official figure failed to apply.


In other words, the current model is left with a single pattern that applied every day since January 17th...and it is NOT the one based on the Chinese numbers.


That pattern and the weaponized pattern failed on January 24th, while the Spanish Flu pattern failed first, on January 21st.


The remaining pattern still holds, and it is based on an adjusted R0 = 2.6 (with 0.7 and 0.8 variable index for infection chance, depending on the pandemic stage, which is incipient atm outside China), for countries outside China.


Any attempt to making a model starts with many variables, until only one is left standing.
Colibri

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01/28/2020 03:07 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
you and I both know the RO number of 2.6 is bullpucky
 Quoting: Jake


For China and South East Asia it is.

By my model is adjusted for US, EU, Japan, SK, Australia, NZ and other developed countries to 2.2 in the incipient phase to 2.6 in the mid stage of the pandemic.

For South East Asia, the R0 is 2.6 in the incipient stage, and 3 in the mid stage of the pandemic.


After that, it won't matter how big the R0 is, the society will be collapsed anyway, and nobody will give a fuck about it.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


true on the it wont matter part.

we are screwed I can feel it in my bones.
 Quoting: Jake


Oh yeah, we are. Big time.


This is why I bolded what it must be done to limit and eventually stop the pandemic...but we all know that they won't do it, until way too fucking late.


I also didn't bothered on death rate, because it is irrelevant. The social collapse will kill many more people than the virus will.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


If this virus actually does go apocolyptic you won't want to still live in what will be left over. It will be way beyond anything you saw in the Mad Max movies.

Nobody is mentioning (that I have seen) anything about all the death and dying of all pets and social animals. They are going to die too.

Even if you actually survive the virus attack itself...your body may be left over so damaged that you still couldn't live or survive in a collapsed society. God help us all.

You are going to see the rise in cannibalism as the food supply chain collapses and food isn't even grown or coming out of the field. God help us.

Surely two things are also soon to happen.

The anti-christ will come on the scene.

A rapture will occur.

Jesus will return.

This planet and all living things on it cannot survive an total extinsion event.
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 03:08 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
This is assuming a highly doubtful starting point:

January 28th 00:00 GMT : Between 3,000 and 4,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 37-38 cases.)

There is a lot of increasingly validated information out there demonstrating that there are 45,000 to as many as 140,000 infected people as of today. All due to intentional under-reporting or due to inability to diagnose actual cases (lack of supplies, staff, IT...).

Considering this, your scenario could be way too conservative.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77811278


I think you missed the part where my model is not for China.

The information you are talking about is for China.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


I DID miss that, thanks. What's the math INSIDE China?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77811278


690,000 infected.

The Chinese should report 8,099 confirmed cases today, give it a 1-2% error.

So, a jump from 4,500 yesterday to 8,100 today.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


I have a hard time believing China will report that high of a number (regardless that I agree your true number is correct).
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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01/28/2020 03:10 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
updated modeling has the RO over 3

[link to drive.google.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73778564


The updated R0=3 is based on data from the Chinese government.

As such, it only applies to China.

The R0 is increasing in certain conditions :
-poor hygiene
-large communities
-weak medical system
-strong epidemic environment


All of the above apply to China. The R0=3 applies to China.


My model excludes China.
2hot2handle

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01/28/2020 03:10 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
I have a question if anyone might know.

Lots of people live paycheck to paycheck in low end jobs, struggling to pay bills and rent.

In the USA if the virus gets so bad that work places close and society begins to collapse.

Does the USA government step up to stop things like utility bills if no one can go to work?

We would all still need water to flush toilets, right?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76538212


I don't know. I have thought about that too. Local bank branches might even shutter because all the staff might be out sick. Even if you wrote a check to your landlord he might not be able to cash it if the banks shut down or the ATMs are not working or have no cash to dispense because the people that service them are out sick with the corona virus. Also internet service may go down if there are no IT staff to keep things running smoothly. We still need humans to keep things running properly.
Security without liberty is called Prison. - Benjamin Franklin

End the lock down now!
---------------
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 03:12 PM
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Just got off a plane from Tokyo in Detroit. An arriving plane from Beijing has multiple people coughing and sniffling and not health checks on arrival. We are doomed..
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 03:13 PM
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Just got off a plane from Tokyo in Detroit. An arriving plane from Beijing has multiple people coughing and sniffling and not health checks on arrival. We are doomed..
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 72622760
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 03:13 PM
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FEAR MONGERING MUCH?
2hot2handle

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01/28/2020 03:13 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
I don't think you can develop any predictions based off the phony numbers that the Chinese authorities have given because the numbers are obviously very low. No one quarantines a city of a 11 million people for 26 deaths. There are more deaths from the flu and cities are not quarantined for that. The Chinese authorities obviously know what this virus is and where it comes from and roughly how many people are being infected and dying. Obviously there will be people who are not counted among the dead and infected because they don't go to a hospital with it and instead stay home or they don't know they have it yet.
 Quoting: 2hot2handle


My model started with 4 patterns.

3 of them, including the one based on Chinese official figure failed to apply.


In other words, the current model is left with a single pattern that applied every day since January 17th...and it is NOT the one based on the Chinese numbers.


That pattern and the weaponized pattern failed on January 24th, while the Spanish Flu pattern failed first, on January 21st.


The remaining pattern still holds, and it is based on an adjusted R0 = 2.6 (with 0.7 and 0.8 variable index for infection chance, depending on the pandemic stage, which is incipient atm outside China), for countries outside China.


Any attempt to making a model starts with many variables, until only one is left standing.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Ok well if your numbers hold we are screwed because I don't see our governments closing borders or restricting air travel.
Security without liberty is called Prison. - Benjamin Franklin

End the lock down now!
---------------
Crypto-Tard

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01/28/2020 03:16 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
you and I both know the RO number of 2.6 is bullpucky

more like 9.5
 Quoting: Jake


14 is the number i'm hearing
Everyone has a plan until they get hit in the face.

--Mike Tyson

I am a "conspiracy theorist.” I believe men and women of wealth and power conspire. If you don't think so, then you are what is called "an idiot.” If you believe stuff but fear the label, you are what is called "a coward.”

--David B Collum

"The point of modern propaganda isn't only to misinform or push an agenda. It is to exhaust your critical thinking, to annihilate truth."

--Garry Kasparov
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 03:16 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
I have a question if anyone might know.

Lots of people live paycheck to paycheck in low end jobs, struggling to pay bills and rent.

In the USA if the virus gets so bad that work places close and society begins to collapse.

Does the USA government step up to stop things like utility bills if no one can go to work?

We would all still need water to flush toilets, right?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76538212


Yes, I would think so, as it would be a matter of national security to maintain infrastructure (i.e. water, electric, sanitation, etc) and keep essential personnel going to their .gov jobs -- remotely where possible -- to process such claims. If such infrastructure collapses, then the spread of all kinds of diseases will multiply.
simplify

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01/28/2020 03:16 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
you and I both know the RO number of 2.6 is bullpucky
 Quoting: Jake


For China and South East Asia it is.

By my model is adjusted for US, EU, Japan, SK, Australia, NZ and other developed countries to 2.2 in the incipient phase to 2.6 in the mid stage of the pandemic.

For South East Asia, the R0 is 2.6 in the incipient stage, and 3 in the mid stage of the pandemic.


After that, it won't matter how big the R0 is, the society will be collapsed anyway, and nobody will give a fuck about it.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


true on the it wont matter part.

we are screwed I can feel it in my bones.
 Quoting: Jake


Jake, NO we are NOT screwed. Come on now.....put ON your WARRIOR SPIRIT......we CAN protect ourselves against this.
You know the routine.....get your preps updated NOW. After your preps are updated & you have more than ample food stored & natural remedies etc., then stay the heck away from going out anywhere.
I've just made a new batch of the Winter Tonic (hot, hot, hot) & I'm busy cooking meals for my freezer, so I have meals already prepared. I also purchased some N95 masks.
Tip: I plan on covering one of the masks with tin-foil, & taping it down with clear Duct tape. Then I will wear a surgical mask over top of that, if I have to go out in public.
We can do this Jake & friends.
 Quoting: simplify
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 77650059
United States
01/28/2020 03:16 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
For the curious ones that are anxiously waiting the new numbers from China :


The total number of confirmed cases that will be reported next by the Chinese government will be 8,099, give it a 1-2% error.

The REAL and total number of the infected people (asymptomatic and confirmed) in China is roughly 700,000 people, most of them in the 1-2 day incubation period.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Considering that Wuhan has roughly 50,000 to 75,000 hospital beds and the complete overwhelming of the hospitals your figures are about right.

Would hospitals be overwhelmed with a mere 8,000 infected? Ergo, the pandemic is orders of magnitude beyond what is being reported.
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 03:17 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
Just got off a plane from Tokyo in Detroit. An arriving plane from Beijing has multiple people coughing and sniffling and not health checks on arrival. We are doomed..
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 72622760

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 69398780


I'm not surprised. Detroit is a shithole. They can't find their asses with both hands.
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 03:17 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
The Suspected case in Oregon has been in country for one week. So I would expect others to begin showing symptoms within a day or so.





GLP