WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

Dr i think there will be no offensive

Ukraine army has been decimated. Western weapons have been vaporized. Western air defense is useless. Not to talk of the absence of air support... And without air support there cannot be any offensive.

Ukraine war is over because Ukraine has not enough weapons and because russia does not want to annex more Oblast (since territorial annexations have enormous costs)

Maybe the west is looking for a confrontation with Russia in Kosovo

And this is exactly why there is going to be an Ukrainian offensive.


They have no other option. The U.S. was crystal clear : the war will be over when Russia losses, retreats from Ukraine, and will be militarily and economically weakened to the point of becoming unable to do another invasion ever.



You might think this is just talk...but you seem to forget that this never was about Ukraine. It was always about U.S. supremacy, and Russia is challenging it. The only way for the U.S. to keep this supremacy, is war. The only way for Russia to challenge it, it's war.


As for Russia not taking more oblasts...you are very wrong. Russia is aiming to take at least 4 more oblasts (with Russian majority : Nykolayev, Odessa, Kharkov and Dniepropetrovsk ), along 2 more, as buffer, before stopping and negociate with the U.S.



There are 3 ways that this war is going to proceed :

1.The current attrition war (which Russia will win in the end).

2.An Ukrainian offensive, that will either fail, and the West intervenes, or it is successful, and Russia starts general mobilization, while bombing Ukraine to the stone age, and the West still intervenes.

3.A Russian offensive that will either be successful, Ukrainian army is obliterated and the West intervenes, or it will fail, Russia will escalate to massive bombings, and the West intervenes.


If you believe that this war is going to end WITHOUT a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia, you are simply dreaming.



There won't be PEACE before one side is BEATEN on the battlefield...and those TWO sides are NATO and Russia.

I don't know if this update will be considered good news or bad news. I tend to consider it very bad news, but it the same time, it might end up, when things settle, to be good news...and that is avoiding WW3.


Pretty much the only "good" news at this point, for me, is for WW3 to be avoided, at least for a while.



Now, onto the update.



I believe that Ukrainian offensive is imminent, I believe that Russians are ready for it, the West is ready for it, and I believe it will escalate the war to the point of a direct collision between Russia and NATO.


Where is this offensive is going to take place?



As you remember, I presented 3 scenarios :

1.Small scale offensive, but on multiple areas, with part of the Ukrainian reserves being used.

2.Larger scale offensive, on a small number of areas, with most Ukrainian reserves being used.

3.A large scale offensive with Ukraine throwing everything in.



I have dismissed the last scenario as being suicidal for Ukraine, but I have also said that it is possible, because the West is THAT STUPID to actually determine Ukraine to do it.



At this point in time, I believe that exactly this scenario is going to take place : a large scale Ukrainian, "all-in", offensive, and this is why :


1.Ukraine cannot win the current war of attrition against Russia. They have 5 time less people (Ukraine population is at this moment, at most 22 million people) and at least 5 to 10 times, or even more, less artillery then Russians.

2.The West is unable to close the population gap, unless it goes to war, directly, against Russia.

3.The West will need AT LEAST one more year (some say 2,3, or even more years) to catch up and match Russia military industrial complex, in terms of weapons and ammo production. So, no chance for Ukraine to close the gap in artillery.

4.Ukraine have, at best, very limited air support...unless the West uses it's own jets and airfields to attack Russian forces.



For the above reasons, I believe that Ukraine is going "all-in"...BUT, and this is where things will go hairy : the West will enter the war directly, DURING THE OFFENSIVE, and not after.



Keep in mind that this is highly speculative, but I kinda outside the above reasons, I have more to believe that this is the way the West chose to go.



The offensive is going to take place in Kherson region. According to many, this is the least place where Ukraine could launch its offensive. The biggest problem is that many people STILL don't understand, or don't want to accept the REALITY : and that is that Ukraine CANNOT HOPE TO WIN UNLESS THE WEST IS GOING TO BE INVOLVED DIRECTLY.


And since it is painfully CLEAR that West must be directly involved, while also is painfully clear that Ukraine cannot win a war of attrition, it is also, at least for me, painfully clear that the BEST PLACE for this offensive is Kherson.



First, and most important reason WHY Kherson, is Odessa. Without Odessa, Ukraine is CUT OFF from the Black Sea, and this means that without access to Black Sea, Ukraine is going to be a very poor country.



Even if the war continues, Ukraine without Odessa will be in a much worse position then it is today.


Secondly, the West is in the best position to support the Ukraine offensive if it takes place in Kherson. Imagine NATO jets having to fly over Crimea and Kherson, to attack Russians in Zaporoje. Or Donbass. Or ANY OTHER place if the Ukrainian offensive is anywhere else BUT Kherson.


Thirdly, we all know that there are a lot of U.S. and British special forces in Ukraine, and they are very good at amphibious operations and bridge heads in littoral areas. Kherson is basically a littoral area, you have the Black Sea and the Dnieper river is very large in that area.



So, if my assumption is correct, the Ukrainian offensive will start in Kherson, supported by U.S. and British special forces.


Another major reason, the fourth, is the MEDIA FRENZY in the West, which we all know is highly important for Western propaganda.


An offensive in Kherson, with a push towards Crimes, is going to fill up the hearts and minds of Ukraine supporters, and give them high hopes that Ukraine can actually win.



BUT, and here comes a very big BUT : NO MATTER HOW GOOD those U.S. and British forces are, and how many Ukrainian troops manage to develop a bridge head on the left side of Dnieper river, the chances are still in favor of the Russians : they will bomb the crap out of that bridge head, with everything they have : jets, missiles, artillery, tanks, drones, BUT NOT BEFORE RETREATING TOWARDS CRIMEA.



In other words, such an offensive, and I agree with most people, in Kherson, is doomed to fail...but this is EXACTLY WHY is going to take place there.



In the first days of the operations, the hopes will be high among the Western population, especially after Russians will RETREAT towards Crimea.


Once the Russians start bombing the living hell out of the Ukrainians in Kherson bridge head, and start pushing them back, the Western media will go with headlines that will make the Western supporters of Ukraine afraid, to the point of openly asking for a direct intervention of NATO.



And this is what it is going to happen, especially because once Ukraine is lured into pouring more troops into Kherson, thinking that Russians are retreating and running (especially since the narrative is that Russian army is crap, and only Wagner is any good...but they aren't in Kherson), the Russians will counter ALL OVER THE FRONT LINE.



I am telling you guys, if you want Russia to REALLY REACT, no amount of drones flying to Moscow, or missile dropping in Donetsk city is going to get them mad as a direct attack on Crimea...and this is best to be done by an offensive in Kherson, across the river.



The WEAKEST (by Russian intent) area of Russian defense is Kherson, and everyone is saying this is because the river is plenty of defense. Sure it is, unless the INTENT of the West is to use a suicidal offensive, that will fail, force a massive Russian response, and in turn, have the very reason that they repeated it since before the invasion started : THE RUSSIANS WANT TO INVADE EUROPE and recreate the Soviet Empire.


The success of the offensive, in the least expected part of the front, paired with a Russian retreat towards Crimes, is going to make every idiot on the planet frenzy for Ukraine.


The Russian push back, and the devastating response to Crimea being attacked, is going to make the idiots thinking that "Well, Ukraine got owned, and now the Russians are coming", supported by Western MSM, will, finally, drag NATO in the conflict, and the idiots will be "Now we're going to smash Russia".



Everything is going to be played just like I said A LONG TIME GO : a succession of shocks and pauses, to perfectly confuse the populations, and making them not understand what is going on, but in the same time, accept, the narrative, because like it or not, war IS COMPLICATED, and no matter what, PEOPLE ARE STILL NEEDED to fight wars.



Obviously, I might be wrong, and the offensive won't take place in Kherson, but I still believe that at least PART of this suicidal offensive will be in Kherson, because it makes a hell lot of sense, at least for me.



Anyway, the offensive is imminent, and we will see how it is going to play out. Disregard any other things that might happen before or during, like drones hitting Russian territory. It is all a distraction.



The main event is coming. The bad news is that the West will going to be directly involved, but I believe that Russians will prevail (the trap they have set up for the West worked very good until now, and I don't see why it won't in the future), and the West will ACCEPT the reality, and not resort to a full blown war, which will escalate to nuclear, very quickly.




So, this is why I see this as very bad news, but with a good potential to become good news : the war will be over, Russia will prevail, the West will accept defeat in Ukraine without choosing to escalate inside Russia.



But, it might be that it is going to be just bad news after bad news, up and including nuclear war.

False flag by Ukraine / NATO !!!!

Instead of the counteroffensive, we have the nova kakhova dam destroyed

.

I get the feeling the offensive will come to nothing but rapid deaths for Ukraine!!!!

I think blowing the Dam was an offensive move.

Flood the region so Ukrainian forces would be free to fight elsewhere.

The region flooded was heavily mined and fortified by Russia.

Now it is flooded it makes Russian military movement impossible. A defensive move, to create an offensive move elsewhere along the front.

Assuming you are correct, then the Kiev regime has flooded out thousands of its own citizens wrecked the power supply to a major city and even potentially endangered a nuclear facility, and this is a regime the West is not only prepared to support, but to support at all costs.

Dr i think there will be no offensive

Ukraine army has been decimated. Western weapons have been vaporized. Western air defense is useless. Not to talk of the absence of air support... And without air support there cannot be any offensive.

Ukraine war is over because Ukraine has not enough weapons and because russia does not want to annex more Oblast (since territorial annexations have enormous costs)

Maybe the west is looking for a confrontation with Russia in Kosovo