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LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87

 
chrion777

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01/28/2020 03:17 PM

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
From the beginning, I want to specify that my model is only for the infection rate. Not death rate, and not confirmed cases by the authorities and governments. It is a mathematical model, based on 4 separate patterns :

-Chinese official number
-The commonly accepted R0 of 2.6 among many epidemiologists
-The Spanish Flu R0 of 1.8
-The weaponized virus R0 > 5

Starting from January 16th, all the patterns, except the one based on an Ro of 2.6 failed to apply.

The R0 = 2.6 pattern still stands, for China. However, considering that China is still allowing free travel among all provinces except Tibet (least populated and most isolated one) and Hubei (the epicenter of the pandemic), the R0 will jump over 3 by Sunday, February 2nd.

For the developed countries, with better hygiene, long history of flu (herd immunization) and high quality medical system, the R0 was skewed (for the time being) to 2.2.

If the developed countries will not stop ALL travel by Sunday, Feb. 2nd, the R0 will jump to 2.6.


Everyone can do their own math, applying an R0 = 2.2, for the develop countries, 2.4 for Asian countries and 2.6 for China, while adjusting the index for infection spread chance to 0.7-0.8.
As an example 10 x 2.2 x 0.7, for developed countries and 10 x 2.2 x 0.8 for SE Asia, South and Central America and Africa.

For those that don't want to do that, here is the infection spread, worldwide (except China mainland), starting with today, January 28th, with all the numbers adjusted :


January 28th 00:00 GMT :
Between 3,000 and 4,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 37-38 cases.

January 29th, 00:00 GMT :
Between 5,200 and 7,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 67-69 cases.

January 30th, 00:00 GMT : Between 8,000 and 12,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 103-106 cases.

January 31st, 00:00 GMT : 12,300 - 20,100 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 158 - 168 cases.

February 1st, 00:00 GMT : 18,900 - 30,900 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 243 - 258

February 2nd, 00:00 GMT : 29,100 - 47,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 374 - 397.

If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate.These are the numbers :

February 3rd, 00:00 GMT : 48,000 - 78,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 617 - 655

February 4th, 00:00 GMT : 79,200 - 128,700 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 1,018 - 1,080.

If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate.These are the numbers :

February 5th, 00:00 GMT : 139,000 - 226,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 1,790 - 1,900.


From this date on, the pandemic no longer can be contained, without full quarantine, at least for all major cities across the world. This will come with total economic collapse and the panic that will be widespread.

The huge difference between the number of infected in my model, is because most populated countries are also underdeveloped, and the virus will affect much more people in India and SE Asia.

If full or at last partial quarantine is not implemented by February 5th, in major cities across the world, the pandemic will spread as follow (adjusted for higher R0 and higher index for infection spread chance), with the mention that the numbers will be the median ones :

Feb 6th :345,000 infected with 3,600 presenting symptoms
Feb 7th :690,000 infected with 7,500 presenting symptoms
Feb 8th : 1,435,000 / 15,600
Feb 9th : 2,980,000 / 27,456
Feb 10th: 6,240,000 / 57,100
Feb 11th: 12,979,000 / 118,100
Feb 12th: 27,990,000 / 245,600
Feb 13th: 58,220,000 / 509,600
Feb 14th:121,970,000 /1,060,000
Feb 15th:253,697,000 /2,204,800

From February 16th, multiple health systems across the world will collapse.Hospitals will be overcrowded and unable to test and treat most of the patients.The social fabric will completely collapse, and the governments, if they delayed the quarantines, will have no other choice but to lock-down hundreds of millions of people in major and large to medium cities, with hundreds of millions more self-isolating in smaller cities, towns and villages.

There might be slight variations in my model, if some countries implement some travel restrictions here and there, some quarantines here and there...but anything except total quarantine is not going to work, but only delay the infection by mere DAYS.


I am going to end with what matters the most, for my model to HOPEFULLY fail :

FULL INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL MUST STOP BY FEB.3RD.
FULL LOCAL TRAVEL IN AFFECTED COUNTRIES MUST STOP BY FEB. 5TH.


If the above measures are not taking place, the pandemic will be catastrophic.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


this sounds legit; question what are your credentials; would like to share this out more widely but won't be taken serious by non-GLPers without credentials.
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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01/28/2020 03:18 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
OP,

As of right now, do you think a 10% kill rate is a safe calculation for a general projection?

If so, that would mean that aside from China, there could be around 100,000 dead or dying.
 Quoting: HE-B-GB



My model is only for infection rates. The death rate is irrelevant, and IMPOSSIBLE to calculate at this moment, because :

-China's official numbers are bogus
-A significant percentage of those that died in the last 72 hours outside China from pneumonia and flu were very likely infected with the NovelCoronavirus.
-The percentage of those currently infected outside China that could develop severe/critcal symptoms cannot be evaluated, because the pandemic is still in the incipient stage, outside China.


For these reasons, the death rate cannot be determined. And it won't be determined for a good while...and when it will be, again, it won't matter.

We are 3 weeks away from a major, if not total collapse of the society, bar a fucking miracle.

Last Edited by deplorable recollector on 01/28/2020 03:32 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Scary , but i lost my trust in media and news reports, dooms with Iran, Syria ,Russia impending WW3. The evil rulers of this world want us to live in panic and fear; you could be right, but i believe this doom will die out over next weeks, moths but will be used to push vaccines sterilization depopulation agenda.
Do Not Taze Me Bro

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01/28/2020 03:19 PM

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
From the end of the email serving to read and complete everything from my whiteboard to the college exams.
long duck dong
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01/28/2020 03:19 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Fandango Rangers are on it!!!!
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 03:20 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
OP,

As of right now, do you think a 10% kill rate is a safe calculation for a general projection?

If so, that would mean that aside from China, there could be around 100,000 dead or dying.
 Quoting: HE-B-GB



My model is only for infection rates. The death rate is irrelevant, and IMPOSSIBLE to calculate at this moment, because :

-China's official numbers are bogus
-A significant percentage of those that died in the last 72 hours outside China from pneumonia and flu were very likely infected with the NovelCoronavirus.
-The percentage of those currently infected outside China that could develop severe/critcal symptoms cannot be evaluated, because the pandemic is still in the incipient stage, outside China.


For those reason, the death rate cannot be determined. And it won't be determined for a good while...and when it will be, again, it won't matter.

We are 3 weeks away from a major, if not total collapse of the society, bar a fucking miracle.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Will affect my tax refund?
pick
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To the pain!

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01/28/2020 03:20 PM

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
OP,

As of right now, do you think a 10% kill rate is a safe calculation for a general projection?

If so, that would mean that aside from China, there could be around 100,000 dead or dying.
 Quoting: HE-B-GB


Mortality rate for 2019-nCoV seems to be hovering around 5%, not 10%.
Risking my life for people I hate for reasons I don't understand.
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 03:21 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
I have a question if anyone might know.

Lots of people live paycheck to paycheck in low end jobs, struggling to pay bills and rent.

In the USA if the virus gets so bad that work places close and society begins to collapse.

Does the USA government step up to stop things like utility bills if no one can go to work?

We would all still need water to flush toilets, right?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76538212


I don't know. I have thought about that too. Local bank branches might even shutter because all the staff might be out sick. Even if you wrote a check to your landlord he might not be able to cash it if the banks shut down or the ATMs are not working or have no cash to dispense because the people that service them are out sick with the corona virus. Also internet service may go down if there are no IT staff to keep things running smoothly. We still need humans to keep things running properly.
 Quoting: 2hot2handle


And keeping the stores open, water flowing, Nuclear plants operational...
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 03:22 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
You've done a great statistical presentation for the infection.

If there were a way to calculate how many are actually suffering from having their ELECTROlytes scrambled by 5G, we'd get an even scarier scenario.

5G promotes viral and bacterial infections while it also screws up electrolytes big time.

When people suddenly pass out into unconsciousness rather than woozily, the cause is likely electrical. This is why we are seeing videos of young healthy looking people suddenly drop, especially in the train station or just outside. The stations and the airport have 5G.

Wuhan has 300+ 5G base stations. So it depends how many 5G masts and stations a country has. That will be the determining factor.

BTW, 5G promotes all varieties of the flu and viral infections. This means the names of the particular virus will be varied.
Anonymous Coward
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
There will be a huge difference in mortality rates between inside and outside of communist China. China's first priority is protecting the state apparatus, not protecting its citizens. Western nations will deal with this without major issue.
norespect
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01/28/2020 03:23 PM

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
I have a question if anyone might know.

Lots of people live paycheck to paycheck in low end jobs, struggling to pay bills and rent.

In the USA if the virus gets so bad that work places close and society begins to collapse.

Does the USA government step up to stop things like utility bills if no one can go to work?

We would all still need water to flush toilets, right?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76538212


I don't know. I have thought about that too. Local bank branches might even shutter because all the staff might be out sick. Even if you wrote a check to your landlord he might not be able to cash it if the banks shut down or the ATMs are not working or have no cash to dispense because the people that service them are out sick with the corona virus. Also internet service may go down if there are no IT staff to keep things running smoothly. We still need humans to keep things running properly.
 Quoting: 2hot2handle


And keeping the stores open, water flowing, Nuclear plants operational...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78340688


We're on well and septic, we have generators, and 90 days of supplies. I've been working on doubling that to 6 months, but not there yet.
Risking my life for people I hate for reasons I don't understand.
Tree of Life

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01/28/2020 03:25 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Your model doesn't account for racial profiling of the bio-weapon.

That could skew any results derived mathematically... a lot!

Until a cross-section of victims is developed which is based on race, this important piece of information is lacking.

Also, bio-weapons will mutate quicker than wild strains, presumably... as in a family of six who are all infected, showed different strains detected individually.

My opinion... is a weapon being developed to use on us got used on them, and somehow, the tables were turned... perhaps by our "remarkable" American researchers!
"All you may know of heaven or hell is within your own self." - Edgar Cayce

"The future does not belong to the globalists, it belongs to the patriots" - Donald J. Trump
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 03:26 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Well done homie. I tried to do some basic gnuplotting but fuck that shit is hard.

Is it still growing around ~50% each day?
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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01/28/2020 03:27 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Scary , but i lost my trust in media and news reports, dooms with Iran, Syria ,Russia impending WW3. The evil rulers of this world want us to live in panic and fear; you could be right, but i believe this doom will die out over next weeks, moths but will be used to push vaccines sterilization depopulation agenda.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78090455


Any doom that involves HUMANS as cause, can be avoided, stopped and manipulated : Syria, Russia, WW3, Iran, etc.
Easy to use wars as scare tactics.


Unless China is putting a HUGE SHOW, this pandemic cannot be stopped by a phone call between Trump and Putin.


As much as I would like this to be another scare tactic for whatever shady reason that TPTB have, it certainly doesn't looks real.Too real.


If you believe that this will die out in the coming weeks...I am sorry, but the next 5 days will completely change your mind.


Hopefully, not too late for you to prepare. No matter where you live.
Texas Rose

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01/28/2020 03:28 PM

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
I have a question if anyone might know.

Lots of people live paycheck to paycheck in low end jobs, struggling to pay bills and rent.

In the USA if the virus gets so bad that work places close and society begins to collapse.

Does the USA government step up to stop things like utility bills if no one can go to work?

We would all still need water to flush toilets, right?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76538212


Therein lies why the virus won’t be the only deadly virus. The human thug viruses will also be a problem.... if it gets that bad and unless this Coronavirus mutates and fizzles out OR they take drastic measures for containment, we are headed for uncharted waters in a sinking ship.
Veggie seeds!! Marrubium vulgare - White Horehound - can buy as candies. It’s the absolute best for lung ailments, stomach & others. It grows wild in much of USA, mint family, stem is square, fuzzy plant.
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 03:29 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Just got off a plane from Tokyo in Detroit. An arriving plane from Beijing has multiple people coughing and sniffling and not health checks on arrival. We are doomed..
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 72622760


zombies
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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01/28/2020 03:31 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Your model doesn't account for racial profiling of the bio-weapon.

That could skew any results derived mathematically... a lot!

Until a cross-section of victims is developed which is based on race, this important piece of information is lacking.

Also, bio-weapons will mutate quicker than wild strains, presumably... as in a family of six who are all infected, showed different strains detected individually.

My opinion... is a weapon being developed to use on us got used on them, and somehow, the tables were turned... perhaps by our "remarkable" American researchers!
 Quoting: Tree of Life


The bio-weapon pattern failed to deliver. As such, I removed it from the model.

Also, the bio-weapon scenario is in the movies. A mutating virus used as a bio-weapon implies CLOSED BORDERS to any outsiders.


Now, who closed their borders to EVERYONE?

Nobody did.

Hence, not a bio-weapon. It also failed the mathematical pattern, because the R0 for a bio-weapon is extremely high, at least 20.

China would be history today with an R0>20, in an epidemic that started over a month ago.
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Am I the only one that could see Trump giving the order to release a biowarfare agent in china?

If things go on the way they are the United States sill soon be China's bitch on the freemarket globalist capitalism front.
Nonentity

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
OP, if you may. What are your qualifications to publish this model outcome?

I want to use your data. More about the author will help a lot.

Please, thank you!
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 03:33 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Your model doesn't account for racial profiling of the bio-weapon.

That could skew any results derived mathematically... a lot!

Until a cross-section of victims is developed which is based on race, this important piece of information is lacking.

Also, bio-weapons will mutate quicker than wild strains, presumably... as in a family of six who are all infected, showed different strains detected individually.

My opinion... is a weapon being developed to use on us got used on them, and somehow, the tables were turned... perhaps by our "remarkable" American researchers!
 Quoting: Tree of Life


The bio-weapon pattern failed to deliver. As such, I removed it from the model.

Also, the bio-weapon scenario is in the movies. A mutating virus used as a bio-weapon implies CLOSED BORDERS to any outsiders.


Now, who closed their borders to EVERYONE?

Nobody did.

Hence, not a bio-weapon. It also failed the mathematical pattern, because the R0 for a bio-weapon is extremely high, at least 20.

China would be history today with an R0>20, in an epidemic that started over a month ago.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector

where did you get your degree in microbiology?
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 03:33 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
OP, if you may. What are your qualifications to publish this model outcome?

I want to use your data. More about the author will help a lot.

Please, thank you!
 Quoting: Nonentity


with no reliable data it is impossible to meaningfully predict the outcome.
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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01/28/2020 03:33 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Your model doesn't account for racial profiling of the bio-weapon.

That could skew any results derived mathematically... a lot!

Until a cross-section of victims is developed which is based on race, this important piece of information is lacking.

Also, bio-weapons will mutate quicker than wild strains, presumably... as in a family of six who are all infected, showed different strains detected individually.

My opinion... is a weapon being developed to use on us got used on them, and somehow, the tables were turned... perhaps by our "remarkable" American researchers!
 Quoting: Tree of Life


The bio-weapon pattern failed to deliver. As such, I removed it from the model.

Also, the bio-weapon scenario is in the movies. A mutating virus used as a bio-weapon implies CLOSED BORDERS to any outsiders.


Now, who closed their borders to EVERYONE?

Nobody did.

Hence, not a bio-weapon. It also failed the mathematical pattern, because the R0 for a bio-weapon is extremely high, at least 20.

China would be history today with an R0>20, in an epidemic that started over a month ago.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector

where did you get your degree in microbiology?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 53429274


Where did you?

Last Edited by deplorable recollector on 01/28/2020 03:34 PM
Elegant Walnut

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Forgive me, but what is RO?
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 03:35 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Your model doesn't account for racial profiling of the bio-weapon.

That could skew any results derived mathematically... a lot!

Until a cross-section of victims is developed which is based on race, this important piece of information is lacking.

Also, bio-weapons will mutate quicker than wild strains, presumably... as in a family of six who are all infected, showed different strains detected individually.

My opinion... is a weapon being developed to use on us got used on them, and somehow, the tables were turned... perhaps by our "remarkable" American researchers!
 Quoting: Tree of Life


The bio-weapon pattern failed to deliver. As such, I removed it from the model.

Also, the bio-weapon scenario is in the movies. A mutating virus used as a bio-weapon implies CLOSED BORDERS to any outsiders.


Now, who closed their borders to EVERYONE?

Nobody did.

Hence, not a bio-weapon. It also failed the mathematical pattern, because the R0 for a bio-weapon is extremely high, at least 20.

China would be history today with an R0>20, in an epidemic that started over a month ago.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector

where did you get your degree in microbiology?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 53429274


Where did you?
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


I don't have one. I bet you were a geology expert during the Deepwater Horizons blowout.
ESP
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01/28/2020 03:36 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Looks like all major China to NA flights will be cancelled in the next 24h.
2012Portal
2012Portal - Mayan Beyond 2012

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01/28/2020 03:38 PM

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Interesting OP.

We can only hope and pray it mutates and kills itself off. Viruses do that. Can also mutate and get more infectious, but often the virus will doe out.

We can hope.

Otherwise, looks pretty dire. Can't see the western world closing borders.
 Quoting: 2012Portal


WHO, CDC, the Chinese CCP...they are all betting on a mutation that will be far less virulent.


But they are betting with our lives, and the chances are like 50-50 that a weaker mutation will occur.

The next mutation might be extremely virulent, and R0 goes to 10 or more. Also a 50-50 chance.


Those in charge are betting on 50-50 odds...with the life of millions.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Well said OP, well said.
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GSB/LTD

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01/28/2020 03:39 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Thank you for your hard work . What's your job- are you in maths or science or similar....?

I think there is something about this unfolding of recent events that has many of us feeling "something dark coming" deep in our bones. I've been giving my partner the daily updates and he believes "It's a game-changer. It's already too late, it's all fucked".
 Quoting: Miss Pixie


Accounting.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


doomed
 Quoting: Psychedelic Mashed Potatoes



Have you seen "The Postman"?

If not, watch it.


But you made me laugh:)

Thanks:)
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Good, underrated film -that was widely trashed by the USPS. I'll try to watch it again tonight.

Ironically, during a time of national emergency, the Postmaster General is charged with Registering all American citizens [determining that in itself will be a nightmare]. This is from EO 11002 as signed into law on Feberuary 16, 1962 by JFK.

Most USPS delivery units are specifically designed to facilitate this by having multiple gates in all employee parking lots, even if only one is normally used. People would be pulsed in one gate, be registered by multi-lingual agents at long tables, given documentation [cards/wristbands] and ushered out the exit through the other gate.

I know all of this since I'm retired USPS and when I was setting up Bio-Hazard Containment Units [I was the USPS Specialist for my state] at local stations I had to check those gates and make sure keys were available [this was during a big Anthrax scare]. And, sure enough I found one that was never used [it actually opened onto the front lawn of the building], hadn't been opened in years and it was missing a key. I had them hacksaw off the old lock and installed a new $60 one with a heavier chain.

Hope they didn't lose THAT key, too!

Last Edited by GSB/LTD on 01/28/2020 04:33 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
There will be a huge difference in mortality rates between inside and outside of communist China. China's first priority is protecting the state apparatus, not protecting its citizens. Western nations will deal with this without major issue.
norespect
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77421586


Congratulations, your statement is beyond tarded.
freddy colins

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
this is a picture of the growth rate of this worldwide pandemic.


[link to www.basic-mathematics.com (secure)]
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
From the beginning, I want to specify that my model is only for the infection rate. Not death rate, and not confirmed cases by the authorities and governments. It is a mathematical model, based on 4 separate patterns :

-Chinese official number
-The commonly accepted R0 of 2.6 among many epidemiologists
-The Spanish Flu R0 of 1.8
-The weaponized virus R0 > 5

Starting from January 16th, all the patterns, except the one based on an Ro of 2.6 failed to apply.

The R0 = 2.6 pattern still stands, for China. However, considering that China is still allowing free travel among all provinces except Tibet (least populated and most isolated one) and Hubei (the epicenter of the pandemic), the R0 will jump over 3 by Sunday, February 2nd.

For the developed countries, with better hygiene, long history of flu (herd immunization) and high quality medical system, the R0 was skewed (for the time being) to 2.2.

If the developed countries will not stop ALL travel by Sunday, Feb. 2nd, the R0 will jump to 2.6.


Everyone can do their own math, applying an R0 = 2.2, for the develop countries, 2.4 for Asian countries and 2.6 for China, while adjusting the index for infection spread chance to 0.7-0.8.
As an example 10 x 2.2 x 0.7, for developed countries and 10 x 2.2 x 0.8 for SE Asia, South and Central America and Africa.

For those that don't want to do that, here is the infection spread, worldwide (except China mainland), starting with today, January 28th, with all the numbers adjusted :


January 28th 00:00 GMT :
Between 3,000 and 4,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 37-38 cases.

January 29th, 00:00 GMT :
Between 5,200 and 7,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 67-69 cases.

January 30th, 00:00 GMT : Between 8,000 and 12,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 103-106 cases.

January 31st, 00:00 GMT : 12,300 - 20,100 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 158 - 168 cases.

February 1st, 00:00 GMT : 18,900 - 30,900 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 243 - 258

February 2nd, 00:00 GMT : 29,100 - 47,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 374 - 397.

If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate.These are the numbers :

February 3rd, 00:00 GMT : 48,000 - 78,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 617 - 655

February 4th, 00:00 GMT : 79,200 - 128,700 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 1,018 - 1,080.

If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate.These are the numbers :

February 5th, 00:00 GMT : 139,000 - 226,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 1,790 - 1,900.


From this date on, the pandemic no longer can be contained, without full quarantine, at least for all major cities across the world. This will come with total economic collapse and the panic that will be widespread.

The huge difference between the number of infected in my model, is because most populated countries are also underdeveloped, and the virus will affect much more people in India and SE Asia.

If full or at last partial quarantine is not implemented by February 5th, in major cities across the world, the pandemic will spread as follow (adjusted for higher R0 and higher index for infection spread chance), with the mention that the numbers will be the median ones :

Feb 6th :345,000 infected with 3,600 presenting symptoms
Feb 7th :690,000 infected with 7,500 presenting symptoms
Feb 8th : 1,435,000 / 15,600
Feb 9th : 2,980,000 / 27,456
Feb 10th: 6,240,000 / 57,100
Feb 11th: 12,979,000 / 118,100
Feb 12th: 27,990,000 / 245,600
Feb 13th: 58,220,000 / 509,600
Feb 14th:121,970,000 /1,060,000
Feb 15th:253,697,000 /2,204,800

From February 16th, multiple health systems across the world will collapse.Hospitals will be overcrowded and unable to test and treat most of the patients.The social fabric will completely collapse, and the governments, if they delayed the quarantines, will have no other choice but to lock-down hundreds of millions of people in major and large to medium cities, with hundreds of millions more self-isolating in smaller cities, towns and villages.

There might be slight variations in my model, if some countries implement some travel restrictions here and there, some quarantines here and there...but anything except total quarantine is not going to work, but only delay the infection by mere DAYS.


I am going to end with what matters the most, for my model to HOPEFULLY fail :

FULL INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL MUST STOP BY FEB.3RD.
FULL LOCAL TRAVEL IN AFFECTED COUNTRIES MUST STOP BY FEB. 5TH.


If the above measures are not taking place, the pandemic will be catastrophic.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


If isolation centers are opened and proper hygiene is followed I don't see it getting that bad. Sorry to disappoint you!





GLP