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LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87

 
JAZZz50

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02/10/2020 06:05 PM

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Scientists worry coronavirus could evolve into something worse than flu, says quarantined expert

[link to www.cnbc.com (secure)]

damned
 Quoting: Dangerous Times


death-flu,boy can i see everyone wanting that vaccine. better odds of being dead than.

BILL GATES has painted his walls a few time the last few weeks.
JAZZZ50
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02/10/2020 06:14 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
I believe that we are 1-2 weeks away from the truth. The Chinese have been lying from the start, we all know that. You don't shutdown the country basically just for a flu. This is a weapon and once the Chinese have irrefutable proof who did it (Japan & UK) they will act. WW3 is here.
The first attack was the pigs. Something like 2/3 of the hogs are dead. The fishing industry was also attacked hence no fishing on the Yangtze anymore. and rumors of another Avian flu, goodbye chickens. Now the attack on the people of China. China will not let out the true numbers due to National Security. Its fairly obvious that they are trying to save the major pop centers by lockdown but it is doubtful that will work. Consider:
A major city has 10million
only one per family can go out every 2 days
family size of 3-5 we will be conservative and use 5
this calculates out to 2 million families
so one million people are out every day, plenty of opportunity to spread and bring it right back to the family
China is playing for time here the economy be dammed
No info gets out because its deadly serious this time, this is not SARS

So by the start of March the Chinese will be in quite a predicament
2/3 of the pork industry dead, cannot replace, years to build back up. World will not be of much help
Economy in a shambles, very little output for 30-45 days. This will cause financial dominoes to start dropping in China and then the world and won't be stopped
Medical system in state of near collapse
And the dead...there will be so many that the world will scarcely believe it
The CCP will then decide to go to war rather than be overthrown

Enjoy the time left, we are in uncharted territory
 Quoting: ETpeace


I agree and already put this on this thread. If anyone thinks that China will perish alone, he is mistaken. As soon as they realize they can't win, they'll take the whole world to the ground with them. Coronavirus is now only part of the problem, the great damage has already been done.
Storm2come
Natural law always wins in the end

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02/10/2020 06:34 PM

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
[link to phiquyenchinh.org (secure)]

Read the above and LOTS of this starts making sense. WW3 has been going on for sometime now
 Quoting: ETpeace


That is an awesome link, and it makes sense all of the pieces fit, it was an attack gone wrong.
It ain't what you don't know that gets you in trouble, It's what you know that just ain't so. -Mark Twain

Thread: Partial crustal shift and the Sun / earth DOOM..*UPDATED*page12
Thread: The Earths upper mantle and Core are destabilizing *updated*
Anonymous Coward
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02/10/2020 07:14 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
OP, in your original (and updated post) you say that International Travel needs to be stopped by Feb. 3rd and Local Quarantine implemented by Feb 5th otherwise the Pandemic will be catastrophic.

At this point do you feel catastrophe is inevitable?
Storm2come
Natural law always wins in the end

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02/10/2020 07:22 PM

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
OP, in your original (and updated post) you say that International Travel needs to be stopped by Feb. 3rd and Local Quarantine implemented by Feb 5th otherwise the Pandemic will be catastrophic.

At this point do you feel catastrophe is inevitable?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77134512


Have you heard that there are two more brand new and never seen before viruses in Africa and Brazil along with locust plague in east Africa?

This has got to be by design and something Big is about to happen.
It ain't what you don't know that gets you in trouble, It's what you know that just ain't so. -Mark Twain

Thread: Partial crustal shift and the Sun / earth DOOM..*UPDATED*page12
Thread: The Earths upper mantle and Core are destabilizing *updated*
Nonentity

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02/10/2020 07:27 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
It's terribly obvious that China's reaction and lockdowns are WAY out of scale from their reported numbers.

If it were me, and I had a city of 8 million, I'd need to have at least 10k dead or in serious danger of dying to lock it down.

It's completely out of control in China. Like trying to fill a missile hole on a sub with bubble gum. What remains to be seen is whether the ACE2 receptors are a factor in virulence and transmissibility of the virus.

Should transmission and strength of the virus decrease in none Asian populations, we will still have significant economic fall out as China is about 17% of the entire world's economy.

So we shall see.

But it is real doom in the making.
 Quoting: Fluffy Pancakes


I agree.

There is either a horrific death rate, or the infection rate is off the roof.

Or a combination of both.


But one thing is crystal clear : no one will ever lock-down Nanjing for 35 cases.

We can speculate on the numbers, but for such a big city, the infected people have to be a significant percentage of the population, at least 1%. Which is 85,000 people. While the death rate similar with SARS, 8% of the infected, so at least 6,800 dead.

If anyone extrapolates from 8.5 million to 90 million there are locked-down in China, keeping the same 1% of the population infected and 8% of the infected dead, the numbers rise to at least 900,000 infected and at least 72,000 dead.


But here is the thing...we are ONLY talking about the locked-down cities. And even if we stick to those cities, the situation is so dire (everyone on lock-down, within their families, hospitals collapsed, not enough healthcare personal), the number of infected people in such condition will rapidly reach 5-7% of the population, which for those 90 million is 4.5-6.3 million people.


And than you have another 1.3 BILLION people with lesser percentages of infected, the further away from the epicenter.


What exactly is the problem of some people to accept that a 1.4 billion people country is millions of infected and hundreds of thousand of dead, from a virus that NOBODY still doesn't know how it spread, with certitude, especially considering the healthcare system collapsing and the ONLY way to stop the epidemic is to lock down cities?
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


They would shut down a city with only 35 infected if the virus is a well engineered killer that can drop 89%
ETpeace

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02/10/2020 07:38 PM

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Coronavirus’ ‘case-fatality rate’ could range from 1% up to 18%

[link to ca.news.yahoo.com (secure)]

"Case-fatality rates measure the number of deaths from a certain disease as a percentage of the total amount of patients.

Based on available data, the Imperial scientists estimate the case-fatality rate in the province Hubei - of which Wuhan is capital - as 18%.

They note the 'credible interval' ranges from 11% up to 81%.

Among 'travellers outside mainland China', the case-fatality rate is estimated at between 1.2% and 5.6%, with
'substantial uncertainty'...."
Quoting: Scorpionica


We.Are. Fucked

If this is true China will bring down the world

this is Mad Max shit here
Quoting: ETpeace


Oh and the pop of Hubei Province is 58 million so 18% of that is over 10 million DEAD!

And yes....they will all get it, it's highly contagious

Have a nice day....
ETpeace
Anonymous Coward
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02/10/2020 08:06 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
OP, in your original (and updated post) you say that International Travel needs to be stopped by Feb. 3rd and Local Quarantine implemented by Feb 5th otherwise the Pandemic will be catastrophic.

At this point do you feel catastrophe is inevitable?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77134512


Excellent question!

bump
Anonymous Coward
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02/10/2020 08:08 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
OP, in your original (and updated post) you say that International Travel needs to be stopped by Feb. 3rd and Local Quarantine implemented by Feb 5th otherwise the Pandemic will be catastrophic.

At this point do you feel catastrophe is inevitable?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77134512


Have you heard that there are two more brand new and never seen before viruses in Africa and Brazil along with locust plague in east Africa?

This has got to be by design and something Big is about to happen.
 Quoting: Storm2come


Something wicked this way comes...

As for me and mine, we're hanging on to Jesus!
ETpeace

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02/10/2020 08:11 PM

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
The commies are desperate!! They claim to have tested ALL of Wuhan!!

[link to www.indiatoday.in (secure)]

What utter BS

They would have had to test ~500,000 per day the last few weeks!

Utter BS

Do they think the world is stupid or just can't do math

Last Edited by ETpeace on 02/10/2020 08:12 PM
ETpeace
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02/10/2020 08:13 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
[link to phiquyenchinh.org (secure)]

Read the above and LOTS of this starts making sense. WW3 has been going on for sometime now
 Quoting: ETpeace


Too Long/Won't Read

How about Cliff Notes? charlie
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02/10/2020 08:15 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Listen guys, in a few days, when opee’s ridicoulous, wild guesses are prived to be a joke. I want you to remenber. This guy behind the Romanian proxy is either an attention whore or a disinfo agent. This “epidemic” is looking like a big fake UN/globalist power grab. But think about tjis thread after it peters out. And then when the next scare mongering hoax comes out, remember this bullshit.

Opee has said china is a lost cause, he’s insinuating 50% of the chinese are gonna die. Thats simply not the case. Shanghai ports and factories are already back in business.

This was a giant nothing burger...

12 US cases .... TWELVE. GIMME A BREAK...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73459426


Thank you, Chairman Xi.



Now go back to your bunker...or grave.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Opee, LITERALLY NO ONE HAS DIED OUTSIDE OF CHINA
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73459426


I followed this thread from beginning, I was a bit dubious but believed OP.Now I got to say I am a bit skeptical.
Anonymous Coward
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02/10/2020 08:45 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Listen guys, in a few days, when opee’s ridicoulous, wild guesses are prived to be a joke. I want you to remenber. This guy behind the Romanian proxy is either an attention whore or a disinfo agent. This “epidemic” is looking like a big fake UN/globalist power grab. But think about tjis thread after it peters out. And then when the next scare mongering hoax comes out, remember this bullshit.

Opee has said china is a lost cause, he’s insinuating 50% of the chinese are gonna die. Thats simply not the case. Shanghai ports and factories are already back in business.

This was a giant nothing burger...

12 US cases .... TWELVE. GIMME A BREAK...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73459426


Thank you, Chairman Xi.



Now go back to your bunker...or grave.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Opee, LITERALLY NO ONE HAS DIED OUTSIDE OF CHINA
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73459426


Not true. The news is being suppressed.
One of the quarantined passengers on the Cruise Ship docked in NJ has died.
Like I said, all .gov is cracking down on release of info to prevent a panic. They will only be able to do so for a short time. In several weeks at most the panic will be unstoppable.
Lady Jayne SmithModerator
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02/10/2020 08:48 PM

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
As has been pointed out many times, OP's model is complete bullshit. I don't know why it keeps getting pinned. OP keeps deleting posts and banning IPs of the non-lemmings that call BS.
;norespect:
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78418160


I'm deleting the posts. Now yours will be deleted too.

Jobdone
Fate whispers to the warrior

"You cannot withstand the storm"

and the warrior whispers back

"I am the storm"

INTJ:
Independent, original, analytical, and determined. Have an exceptional ability to turn theories into solid plans of action. Highly value knowledge, competence, and structure. Driven to derive meaning from their visions. Long-range thinkers. Have very high standards for their performance, and the performance of others. Natural leaders, but will follow if they trust existing leaders.

Life is karma and karma always reflects both past and present circumstance. Our time here is short, so choose carefully and behave well, for all of your tomorrows are presently being decided.

"A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool."
-- William Shakespeare, born April 23, 1564.

Follow. But! Follow only if ye be men of valor! For the entrance to this cave is guarded by a creature so foul, so cruel, that no man yet has fought with it... and lived! BONES of full fifty men lie *strewn* about its lair! So! Brave knights! If you do doubt your courage or your strength, come no further, for death awaits you all with nasty, big, pointy teeth...

KillerBunnyMask
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02/10/2020 08:49 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
There is really no point in updating past February 15th.

Most I can do, but that really depends on how things evolve next week (Feb 10th-16th) in Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand and Japan, is to have a new, adjusted model, based on new data, for the week of Feb.17th-23rd.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


YES PLEASE!!!!

OP, your info is invaluable. Please don’t let the trolls discourage you. Those of us with an IQ higher than a beer can of Halcyon Daze malt liquor desperately WANT your insights.

.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 75214035


It's not about the trolls. It's about the model.

I expect the number of confirmed cases to rise significantly next week, outside China.

If they do not, I will rework the model, and the result will probably be that this virus is just not that bad outside China.

And if it's not that bad, I no longer care about numbers...we dodged the bullet.


The entire reason for my model is to see IF we're fucked or not.

From the beginning I said that February 15th-16th are CRITICAL DATES.

Basically, and I will put this as simple as I can, if by February 16th, the number of OFFICIALLY confirmed cases outside China is going to be around 800...it's BAD NEWS.


My personal expectation is that the number of cases outside China, on February 16th will be close to 1,000.

If we will have 800-1,000 or more confirmed cases at the end of February 16th, outside China, there is no point to update the model...it's SHTF at the beginning of March.

Numbers won't change the outcome.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


OP's dates and numbers are a must-read.
bump
mr. jingles

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02/10/2020 09:00 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
As has been pointed out many times, OP's model is complete bullshit. I don't know why it keeps getting pinned. OP keeps deleting posts and banning IPs of the non-lemmings that call BS.
;norespect:
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78418160


I'm deleting the posts. Now yours will be deleted too.

Jobdone
 Quoting: Lady Jayne Smith


TYFYS
mr. jingles
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02/10/2020 09:04 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
As has been pointed out many times, OP's model is complete bullshit. I don't know why it keeps getting pinned. OP keeps deleting posts and banning IPs of the non-lemmings that call BS.
;norespect:
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78418160


I'm deleting the posts. Now yours will be deleted too.

Jobdone
 Quoting: Lady Jayne Smith


Damn ! rockon
Etta

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02/10/2020 09:15 PM

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
OP, we may not know if your numbers are correct, simply because areas outside of China may also be full of crap, and because a lot of people might just think that they have a cold, so they won't go to the doctor.
Personally, I like your thread and I hope that we will find out what is really going on.
“Expectations are the root of all heartache”

"I like all of the races, even the bad ones."
florida218
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02/10/2020 09:52 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
OP, we may not know if your numbers are correct, simply because areas outside of China may also be full of crap, and because a lot of people might just think that they have a cold, so they won't go to the doctor.
Personally, I like your thread and I hope that we will find out what is really going on.
 Quoting: Etta


All still speculation now. News is starting to show vids that were posted here days ago so.... maybe getting some slowly conditioned to whats to come. Who knows as it seems very few are that interested and believe any of the news and- or numbers.
UH
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02/10/2020 09:58 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
TOMM. TOTAL DEATHS....1,111 !!! IM CALLIN IT

UH;
Anonymous Coward
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02/10/2020 10:04 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
OP, we may not know if your numbers are correct, simply because areas outside of China may also be full of crap, and because a lot of people might just think that they have a cold, so they won't go to the doctor.
Personally, I like your thread and I hope that we will find out what is really going on.
 Quoting: Etta


All still speculation now. News is starting to show vids that were posted here days ago so.... maybe getting some slowly conditioned to whats to come. Who knows as it seems very few are that interested and believe any of the news and- or numbers.
 Quoting: florida218 32817130


If this is for real and really bad, no matter the origin of it, it'll be used as a culling event. Or perhaps rather a sifting event.

By suppressing information TPTB tries to avoid panic, at the same time as those who are best informed and best equipped, will make due preparations well ahead of the herd.

I intend to be one of them. Not so much for my own sake, but I have nieces and nephews and I live in a rural place ideal for hunkering down. So they'll come here if TSHTF, which actually forces my hand in advance.
Anonymous Coward
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02/10/2020 10:19 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Seeing that there is a YUGE money making opportunity here for some drug companies to make a vaccine, i assume we will see them clamoring to be the first. I would imagine they are working overtime (not to help anyone) but to get their monies out of this.
Anonymous Coward
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02/10/2020 10:36 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
[link to phiquyenchinh.org (secure)]

Read the above and LOTS of this starts making sense. WW3 has been going on for sometime now
 Quoting: ETpeace


Too Long/Won't Read

How about Cliff Notes? charlie
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78309681


I also thought it was very long, but it was worth it, it is, by far, the best information I got about coronavirus. Reading is mandatory to understand what is happening.
UH
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02/10/2020 10:38 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
[link to phiquyenchinh.org (secure)]

Read the above and LOTS of this starts making sense. WW3 has been going on for sometime now
 Quoting: ETpeace


HOT BALLS OF FIRE!
Anonymous Coward
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02/10/2020 10:49 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
"We're Definitely Not Prepared" - African Healthcare Officials Fear Virus Spread


“Any report of a person with coronavirus here will be very disastrous...”

[link to www.zerohedge.com (secure)]
Anonymous Coward
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02/10/2020 10:59 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Listen guys, in a few days, when opee’s ridicoulous, wild guesses are prived to be a joke. I want you to remenber. This guy behind the Romanian proxy is either an attention whore or a disinfo agent. This “epidemic” is looking like a big fake UN/globalist power grab. But think about tjis thread after it peters out. And then when the next scare mongering hoax comes out, remember this bullshit.

Opee has said china is a lost cause, he’s insinuating 50% of the chinese are gonna die. Thats simply not the case. Shanghai ports and factories are already back in business.

This was a giant nothing burger...

12 US cases .... TWELVE. GIMME A BREAK...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73459426


Thank you, Chairman Xi.



Now go back to your bunker...or grave.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Opee, LITERALLY NO ONE HAS DIED OUTSIDE OF CHINA
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73459426


Not true. The news is being suppressed.
One of the quarantined passengers on the Cruise Ship docked in NJ has died.
Like I said, all .gov is cracking down on release of info to prevent a panic. They will only be able to do so for a short time. In several weeks at most the panic will be unstoppable.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78420351


AP, if you read this, I agree -- the .gov is repressing facts, but the truth is a force of nature. It will break loose. When do you think pandemonium will erupt? How long do we have?
Inquire Within

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02/10/2020 11:27 PM

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Seeing that there is a YUGE money making opportunity here for some drug companies to make a vaccine, i assume we will see them clamoring to be the first. I would imagine they are working overtime (not to help anyone) but to get their monies out of this.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78438403


Yes, they are all falling over one another. Tons of vaccine marketing and propaganda right now.
All posts represent my own personal views and opinions. If you don't like them, click "Add to Ignore List" and don't read them.
Anonymous Coward
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02/11/2020 01:12 AM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
I watched a TV debate yesterday night on French TV. I noticed three points:

1) Only 10% of the people of the quarantined cruise ship in Japan were tested yet. So, it's about a 30% rate of infected people for the time being.

2) an expert unintentionally said that there was thousands of dead in China already.

3) Millions of urban people travelled in China for the New Year...to the rural provinces where their families live in the epidemic period and are not allowed to come back yet. Given the numbers provided by the Chinese government, they clearly are not counted as cases. The very moment they must return to their cities to work, they will spread the CoV massively!
Anonymous Coward
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02/11/2020 02:27 AM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
THE CASE WHERE IT WAS DISCOVERED THAT ASYMPTOMATIC PEOPLE WERE SPREADING THE VIRUS TURNED OUT TO BE INCORRECT. THE CASE IN QUESTION WAS A LADY WHO FLEW TO GERMANY FOR MEETING AND 'APPEARED' TO OTHERS TO BE IN GOOD HEALTH. AFTER SHE HAD SPREAD THE VIRUS TO OTHERS AND RETURNED HOME IT TOOK TIME FOR DRS TO CONTACT HER. IN THE INTERIM THE PAPER WAS PUBLISHED RE ASYMPTOMATIC SPREADING. WHEN SHE WAS CONTACTED SHE WAS ABLE TO CONFIRM THAT WHILE ON HER TRIP SHE DID HAVE SYMPTOMS.

I HAVEN'T HEARD OF ANY OTHER CASES WHERE ADYMPTOMATIC SPREADING HAS OCCURED.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 69990768


Did you read the paper “ace”? Did you see how two Germans that never had any direct contact with the Chinese woman got infected because they had contact with the German that had contact with the Chinese woman?

If you can’t read and understand, please don’t post misleading disinfo.
 Quoting: Red Hot Chilean Pepe


Ditto with family at ski area in France, infected by man who had been to conference in Singapore. Who went to hospital in UK a week after leaving France
 Quoting: dodger007

I think we can close this debate. There is a (not yet peer reviewed) study, and it states that Corona viruses are present in nasal mucus days before the onset of the symptoms. From 135 Coronavirus infected persons only 6 (4%) seeked medical care, but all were actively spreading the virus (and most of them developed symptoms sooner or later).
Sources: [link to www.medrxiv.org (secure)]
[link to www.npr.org (secure)]
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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Romania
02/11/2020 06:02 AM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
OP, in your original (and updated post) you say that International Travel needs to be stopped by Feb. 3rd and Local Quarantine implemented by Feb 5th otherwise the Pandemic will be catastrophic.

At this point do you feel catastrophe is inevitable?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77134512



I posted an update on the main post.

This week, as I said, is crucial for my model. I have to wait more information this week, but there is a chance, if more cases will be reported with longer than 21 days incubation period, my model to be adjusted quite drastically, for a lower R0, quite possibly under the value of 2.0.

But it is still going to be close to 2.0, which is still bad news, but gives more time, especially for governments to prepare for quarantines.

At this point, to answer your question, it's a 50/50 chance. Depending on what will happen this week, which I repeat, is a critical week, we might dodge the bullet, and fall under the economical depression outcome, avoiding the catastrophic Mad Max outcome.

But I have to wait for this week to pas, and see what will happen.





GLP