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LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87

 
Terces Egassem

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02/11/2020 05:46 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Op please give us some advice
Where can we hide?
How to treat the illness?
Anything you think may help
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78463918


Ciao,

The best thing you can do is try to prevent getting the virus. Wash your hands often, and do not touch your face. Take your shoes off at the door. Keep all surfaces as clean as possible. If you can, avoid the trains and metro or any crowded places.

Have extra food, water, toiletries, and medications in case of quarantine. Stay informed, do not panic. I am not a medical professional, but those are the steps I am taking. Take care.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78311287


^^^This is good advice.
Also get vitamins/medicine to boost Immune System and to fight Cytokine Storm.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78420351


The GLP "Prepping: Camping a Home" post should help. The utilities will be up unless some point in time if /when people that run & maintain utilities are too sick, scared, or too dead to go to work. Also think spare parts from China. So initially water, alternate power, and sanitation are secondary considerations. My vote for meds is mega-doses of vitamin C of course.

Camp at home:

Thread: Prepping: Camping At Home

Think calorie density plus a little protein every day. The big jars of peanut butter have enough calories for one person for 2 - 3 days. A can of soup is not even a meal.

Last Edited by Terces Egassem on 02/11/2020 05:49 PM
Terces Egassem

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02/11/2020 05:53 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Op please give us some advice
Where can we hide?
How to treat the illness?
Anything you think may help
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78463918


Ciao,

The best thing you can do is try to prevent getting the virus. Wash your hands often, and do not touch your face. Take your shoes off at the door. Keep all surfaces as clean as possible. If you can, avoid the trains and metro or any crowded places.

Have extra food, water, toiletries, and medications in case of quarantine. Stay informed, do not panic. I am not a medical professional, but those are the steps I am taking. Take care.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78311287


^^^This is good advice.
Also get vitamins/medicine to boost Immune System and to fight Cytokine Storm.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78420351


The GLP "Prepping: Camping a Home" post should help. The utilities will be up unless some point in time if /when people that run & maintain utilities are too sick, scared, or too dead to go to work. Also think spare parts from China. So initially water, alternate power, and sanitation are secondary considerations. My vote for meds is mega-doses of vitamin C of course.

Camp at home:

Thread: Prepping: Camping At Home

Think calorie density plus a little protein every day. The big jars of peanut butter have enough calories for one person for 2 - 3 days. A can of soup is not even a meal.
 Quoting: Terces Egassem


Walmart Prepper Food Run?:

Thread: WalMart Prepper Food Run

The last errand just
before they lock down the San Fernando Valley.

Last Edited by Terces Egassem on 02/11/2020 05:56 PM
Anonymous Coward
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02/11/2020 07:38 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
OP, you show approximately a doubling every day for cases outside of China. Please explain.

If that was the case, the pandemic would have been over in China by early January. As it is, they have yet to reach the peak of the pandemic after over two months.
TIO JUAN

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02/11/2020 07:50 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
OP, it seems somebody is reading your data
BTW, do you have any timing forecast for pandemic ending ??
Thanks

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UNCLE JOHN
UH
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02/11/2020 07:59 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
OP, it seems somebody is reading your data
BTW, do you have any timing forecast for pandemic ending ??
Thanks

[link to www.zerohedge.com (secure)]
 Quoting: TIO JUAN


51 MILLION DEAD...YOU DONT READ THAT EVERY DAY...UH!
Bud Fox

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02/11/2020 08:12 PM

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
ITS LIKE A MASSIVE SLOW MOTION TRAIN WRECK - That’s what it feels like we are watching – a massive slow motion catastrophic train wreck as it is happening live. Lots and lots of conspiracy stories developing from aliens to the UN. Doesn’t matter at this point. The only thing that matters at this point is how serious is this virus going to be for each one of us. Sleep does not come as easily as usual, for many of us now. I am only posting in this thread as some of you know. Props to Lady Jayne Smith for keeping this thread short and clean. Hats off to you. I still believe OPs numbers are good. The issue I am focusing on now is Wuhan numbers and deaths outside of China. Ratios and reporting numbers should really start moving, starting tonight coming from outside of China. I am afraid the Wuhan numbers that will be reported beginning with todays or tomorrow’s numbers (numbers will be bogus of course) will start to decrease as these newly reported decreasing numbers will be interpreted by global media as the virus is dying and all will be normal soon. We are already seeing hints of this in the media. Do not be fooled by this.

Also the global supply chain is already beginning to decrease and freight ship activity leaving the China region is already slowing down. Large companies are already closing plants temporarily (yeah right) because of China supply chain issues. This is huge as these corporate measures will affect shareholders thus affecting the market price of the company’s share price. It is the prudent thing to do as a CEO but the equivalent of cutting off your leg to stay alive. This entire CoV event might be a global reset orchestrated to forgive sovereign (each countries) debt while culling the entire global herd too. See I told you there are lots of conspiracy theories. But this one (mine) is making more and more sense to me. It still does not change my firm belief that - Where you live will determine if/how you survive this ordeal.

Below I am providing some items you might want to get for this and any future event. They will come in handy and may not be available for too much longer (remember supply chain). Just search the term on Amazon or elsewhere. I do know all these items are still available at Amazon and can be delivered to your door next day delivery.

Oxygen Blood Level Meter (this is very important) - $15-$20
Virus Killing Light or Light Bulb - $16-$150
Make Your Own Colloidal Silver - $30- $200
Clear Lungs Supplement Extra Strong (Excellent, I use it daily) - $25
Cytokine Suppress Supplement - $17
 Quoting: IdeaMan1624


I wanted to follow up on this as I have a first-hand experience. Back when this whole thing broke around the 17th, in one of the threads someone suggested the Clear Lungs supplement. I bought a bottle and haven't thought about it since.

Well, 2 days ago I picked up some sort of respiratory sickness with stuffy head, coughing, and a headache (no fever). So about 4 hours ago I said what the hell, I'll give the Clear Lungs a try. Dayquill was doing nothing.

After about 1-1/2 hours I showed a very nice improvement. I became less congested and could breath easier. I'm not going to claim a miraculous cure or anything, but if I put a number to it I went from 25% effective to 50-60% effective. So just an FYI, it did seem to help me.
Blue Horseshoe loves GLP
Red Hot Chilean Pepe
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Chile
02/11/2020 08:19 PM

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
OP, it seems somebody is reading your data
BTW, do you have any timing forecast for pandemic ending ??
Thanks

[link to www.zerohedge.com (secure)]
 Quoting: TIO JUAN


That Hong Kong doctor arrived to the conclusions on his own, thus confirming that our OP has been on the ballpark with his model from the beginning. This thing is incredibly contagious.
All great truths begin as Blasphemies.
G.B.S.

GLP is like a diamond mine of information, in the sense that you have to shovel mountains of crap to find the diamonds, but it's still worth the pain.
IdeaMan1624

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02/11/2020 08:20 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
ITS LIKE A MASSIVE SLOW MOTION TRAIN WRECK - That’s what it feels like we are watching – a massive slow motion catastrophic train wreck as it is happening live. Lots and lots of conspiracy stories developing from aliens to the UN. Doesn’t matter at this point. The only thing that matters at this point is how serious is this virus going to be for each one of us. Sleep does not come as easily as usual, for many of us now. I am only posting in this thread as some of you know. Props to Lady Jayne Smith for keeping this thread short and clean. Hats off to you. I still believe OPs numbers are good. The issue I am focusing on now is Wuhan numbers and deaths outside of China. Ratios and reporting numbers should really start moving, starting tonight coming from outside of China. I am afraid the Wuhan numbers that will be reported beginning with todays or tomorrow’s numbers (numbers will be bogus of course) will start to decrease as these newly reported decreasing numbers will be interpreted by global media as the virus is dying and all will be normal soon. We are already seeing hints of this in the media. Do not be fooled by this.

Also the global supply chain is already beginning to decrease and freight ship activity leaving the China region is already slowing down. Large companies are already closing plants temporarily (yeah right) because of China supply chain issues. This is huge as these corporate measures will affect shareholders thus affecting the market price of the company’s share price. It is the prudent thing to do as a CEO but the equivalent of cutting off your leg to stay alive. This entire CoV event might be a global reset orchestrated to forgive sovereign (each countries) debt while culling the entire global herd too. See I told you there are lots of conspiracy theories. But this one (mine) is making more and more sense to me. It still does not change my firm belief that - Where you live will determine if/how you survive this ordeal.

Below I am providing some items you might want to get for this and any future event. They will come in handy and may not be available for too much longer (remember supply chain). Just search the term on Amazon or elsewhere. I do know all these items are still available at Amazon and can be delivered to your door next day delivery.

Oxygen Blood Level Meter (this is very important) - $15-$20
Virus Killing Light or Light Bulb - $16-$150
Make Your Own Colloidal Silver - $30- $200
Clear Lungs Supplement Extra Strong (Excellent, I use it daily) - $25
Cytokine Suppress Supplement - $17
 Quoting: IdeaMan1624


I wanted to follow up on this as I have a first-hand experience. Back when this whole thing broke around the 17th, in one of the threads someone suggested the Clear Lungs supplement. I bought a bottle and haven't thought about it since.

Well, 2 days ago I picked up some sort of respiratory sickness with stuffy head, coughing, and a headache (no fever). So about 4 hours ago I said what the hell, I'll give the Clear Lungs a try. Dayquill was doing nothing.

After about 1-1/2 hours I showed a very nice improvement. I became less congested and could breath easier. I'm not going to claim a miraculous cure or anything, but if I put a number to it I went from 25% effective to 50-60% effective. So just an FYI, it did seem to help me.
 Quoting: Bud Fox



Good for you. I think it is the bomb. It has allowed me to get that deep full lungs breath anytime I desire. It has really helped me I take one in the morning and one before bed every day for 2-3 years now. Really has helped me.
IdeaMan1624
Fluffy Pancakes

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02/11/2020 09:11 PM

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Maybe someone can help me out?

I know this is about cases outside of China, but I'm monitoring and usually screen shooting the gis page from Johns Hopkins.

The issue is they counted the 130 confirmed on the quarantined ship yesterday afternoon. Today, they are NOT counting those on the ship under Japan.

What gives with this? I do realize the numbers aren't accurate, and tbh, I wouldn't seriously think they would be truly accurate. But this "include one day and exclude the next" is bugging me.

Why? Because I see the Japanese cruise ship as being a legit model for us to get something close to accurate numbers in a population.

[link to gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com (secure)]
Things are bad enough, there is no need to make anything up.

"Never interrupt an enemy in the process of destroying himself."...Q
Anonymous Coward
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02/11/2020 09:15 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
OP,

An article states that there are 400 cases OUTSIDE of China. At least that's what they're admitting to..I think its probably at least double that, which would put the total at the 800-1,000 cases you were talking about.

What do you think?

Coronavirus outbreak 'very grave threat' for rest of world: WHO

Over 1,000 people in China have died after contracting the virus, which has sickened over 43,000 others globally. Just under 400 of those cases have been confirmed in countries outside of China.

[link to www.foxnews.com (secure)]
Anonymous Coward
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02/11/2020 09:21 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
OP,

An article states that there are 400 cases OUTSIDE of China. At least that's what they're admitting to..I think its probably at least double that, which would put the total at the 800-1,000 cases you were talking about.

What do you think?

Coronavirus outbreak 'very grave threat' for rest of world: WHO

Over 1,000 people in China have died after contracting the virus, which has sickened over 43,000 others globally. Just under 400 of those cases have been confirmed in countries outside of China.

[link to www.foxnews.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78309681


yes we all know the official numbers are lies. They are way understating. When compared to OPs numbers tells you all you need to know.
It's bad and it's only a matter of time now.
Do not procrastinate. PREPARE.
mr. jingles

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02/11/2020 09:30 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
I think its gonna be very close by this sunday of reported deaths outside china
mr. jingles
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02/11/2020 10:00 PM

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Yesterday, Trump stated that several people had told him that, just like the normal flu, the corona virus would decrease in the summer months. That we were in good shape with only 11 cases so far. Implied that all we had to do is make it to April.

I have not read about whether you think this virus will be seasonal like most colds and flues are. Do you think we are ok if we can make it to April? Is there any indication the corona virus will be seasonal?
 Quoting: carterCZ


Remember, it is now summer in the southern hemisphere.

Singapore, Maylasia, Indonesia, Thailand are all tropical countries that are warm year round, but have outbreaks.

So, will warm weather help?
Fate whispers to the warrior

"You cannot withstand the storm"

and the warrior whispers back

"I am the storm"

INTJ:
Independent, original, analytical, and determined. Have an exceptional ability to turn theories into solid plans of action. Highly value knowledge, competence, and structure. Driven to derive meaning from their visions. Long-range thinkers. Have very high standards for their performance, and the performance of others. Natural leaders, but will follow if they trust existing leaders.

Life is karma and karma always reflects both past and present circumstance. Our time here is short, so choose carefully and behave well, for all of your tomorrows are presently being decided.

"A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool."
-- William Shakespeare, born April 23, 1564.

Follow. But! Follow only if ye be men of valor! For the entrance to this cave is guarded by a creature so foul, so cruel, that no man yet has fought with it... and lived! BONES of full fifty men lie *strewn* about its lair! So! Brave knights! If you do doubt your courage or your strength, come no further, for death awaits you all with nasty, big, pointy teeth...

KillerBunnyMask
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02/11/2020 10:08 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
[link to www.nature.com (secure)]

IMPORTANT TO READ:
A bioengenier designed a mask that actually its self-desinfectant and kills the pathogens trapped by the mask... using basically SALT (kitchen salt + surfactant) ... maybe easy to replicate... the main issue is that the salt, making sharp crystals, cuts the pathogen
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78288940


THIS COULD BE REALLY IMPORTANT FOR ALL
Lady Jayne SmithModerator
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02/11/2020 10:12 PM

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
You didn't account for new metrics to calculate what a counted case was. A case is no longer going to be counted if it is asymptomatic. Fix your model because New Accounting says everything is awesome.

[link to www.zerohedge.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76953217


My model is for infected people, no matter if they are confirmed or not, symptomatic or not.


I did accounted for that. My model needs no fixing.


Your READING skills need fixing.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector

This was intended to be a joke, you know humour but if you want to be that way I should point out you have edited your model as several people quoted your original post and you have significantly reduced your numbers. Inventing a new category called Serious.

Original Post
Feb 11th: 12,979,000 / 118,100

New post
Feb 11th: 10,383,000 /12,979,000 infected / 94,480/ 118,100 with symptoms

Completely Invented
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 18,900 - 23,600



Original Post
Feb 12th: 27,990,000 / 245,600

New Post
Feb 12th: 22,392,000 /27,990,000 infected /196,500/ 245,600 with symptoms

Completely invented
Serious cases needing hospitalization : 39,300 - 49,100



Internet doesn't work the way you would like it.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76953217


Don't be bitchy
Fate whispers to the warrior

"You cannot withstand the storm"

and the warrior whispers back

"I am the storm"

INTJ:
Independent, original, analytical, and determined. Have an exceptional ability to turn theories into solid plans of action. Highly value knowledge, competence, and structure. Driven to derive meaning from their visions. Long-range thinkers. Have very high standards for their performance, and the performance of others. Natural leaders, but will follow if they trust existing leaders.

Life is karma and karma always reflects both past and present circumstance. Our time here is short, so choose carefully and behave well, for all of your tomorrows are presently being decided.

"A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool."
-- William Shakespeare, born April 23, 1564.

Follow. But! Follow only if ye be men of valor! For the entrance to this cave is guarded by a creature so foul, so cruel, that no man yet has fought with it... and lived! BONES of full fifty men lie *strewn* about its lair! So! Brave knights! If you do doubt your courage or your strength, come no further, for death awaits you all with nasty, big, pointy teeth...

KillerBunnyMask
Red Hot Chilean Pepe
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02/11/2020 10:42 PM

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Finally I could sit down to turn this figure into a Smilie.

NEMJ

Anyone that sees this has to understand how contagious is this thing.
All great truths begin as Blasphemies.
G.B.S.

GLP is like a diamond mine of information, in the sense that you have to shovel mountains of crap to find the diamonds, but it's still worth the pain.
Anonymous Coward
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02/11/2020 11:35 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
The vast majority of confirmed cases are serious enough to go to a hospital.

Those 800 confirmed cases are outside Africa, India, S&C.America, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and other countries (who do not have testing kits or don't report cases), which are about 4.2 billion people.

There are 6.3 billion people outside China.

So, 800 confirmed cases for about 2.1 billion people, which is about 1/3rd of the cases outside China.

Hence, the real number of serious cases is actually 2,400, but only 800 are tested and confirmed usually 24-36 hrs. after testing.

Now, serious cases are roughly 18% of the total SYMPTOMATIC cases.

Which means that there are around 13,300 SYMPTOMATIC cases outside China, with 82% of them being mild cases and confused with a light flu, and will not go to a hospital, hence, they are undetected and untested and, ofc, not confirmed...but they ARE 13,300 REAL people.

Now, in order to have 13,300 SYMPTOMATIC cases, who are out of incubation phase which is usually 14 days, according to latest data, applying a 2.2 denominator (the R0) for each "hop", and a "hop" is maximum 24 hrs. (it is usually less) it means that there are 2.2 x 2.2 (13 times in row) = 11,165 infected but ASYMPTOMATIC people for 1 of the each 13,300 SYMPTOMATIC cases.

Which is 11,165 x 13,300, roughly 148,500,000 infected people in total (asymptomatic+mild cases+serious cases) OUTSIDE CHINA.

Yes, 800 is a drop in an ocean...the problem is that those 800 confirmed cases cannot exist if there aren't 148,5 MILLION infected behind them.


I hope I made myself understood.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector



Brazilian Portuguese version, please SHARE.
Versão em portugues do Brasil, por favor compartilhe.

[link to gofile.io (secure)]
carterCZ

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02/12/2020 12:01 AM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Yesterday, Trump stated that several people had told him that, just like the normal flu, the corona virus would decrease in the summer months. That we were in good shape with only 11 cases so far. Implied that all we had to do is make it to April.

I have not read about whether you think this virus will be seasonal like most colds and flues are. Do you think we are ok if we can make it to April? Is there any indication the corona virus will be seasonal?
 Quoting: carterCZ


Remember, it is now summer in the southern hemisphere.

Singapore, Maylasia, Indonesia, Thailand are all tropical countries that are warm year round, but have outbreaks.

So, will warm weather help?
 Quoting: Lady Jayne Smith


Tropical areas do seem to catch the flu, especially in their rainy season. Australia has reverse flu seasons from us, although some areas have a double spike, twice a year flu season. But all that does not really matter. The US does have a normal flu season. So the question is whether the corona virus intends to obey the rules and die out in April or May, or will the pandemic continue to grow?
carterCZ
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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02/12/2020 02:16 AM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
OP, you show approximately a doubling every day for cases outside of China. Please explain.

If that was the case, the pandemic would have been over in China by early January. As it is, they have yet to reach the peak of the pandemic after over two months.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77706747



Why would the epidemic been over in China by early January?

Do you know when it started? Because not even the Chinese know.

In theory, the entire population of China would be infected in 1 month. Yes, in THEORY, and in perfect circumstances, in 31 days, the entire on China would be infected.

But in real world, there are thousands of reason why an epidemic might get slower or faster.

We don't know much about China in general, and Wuhan, especially. There is very possible, and highly probable that the epidemic was in Wuhan for a very long time, and I have no time or the will to write a paper on this subject.

The R0 is nothing but a theoretical value, that is used in MODELING, and not applied to the real world.

We know that Wuhan is a main transportation hub, and this is the main reason why the epidemic spread all over China, but we don't know WHEN and HOW.

When an epidemic starts, there is a patient Zero. The Patient Zero might not be contagious for DAYS...or he might be contagious after 1 minute. We DO NOT KNOW.

Same for patients 1 and 2, infected by P0 at some point. They also might become contagious after DAYS.
Again, WE DO NOT KNOW.

P0 might have been stayed indoors, with P1 and P2, his buddies, for 3-4 days, with booze and food...or all of them might have been traveling to separate destinations in day 1 : one to Shanghai, one to Beijing, and one to Shenzen.

WE DON'T KNOW.


So, yes, while in theory, in 7 days there might be 127 infected people...there might as well be only 13, or 17, or 310, depending on how contagious were the infected people, where they work (or not), how they travel, when and where, what social life they have, family size, where their family lives, where they go, etc. etc.

WE DON'T KNOW.


What we ALMOST know, is when the critical stages are reached in an epidemic, mainly when there are hundreds of CONFIRMED cases, in 2 or more locations, and when those cases were confirmed

From that point on, the models begin to get closer to reality...but the models are still far from reality. We still need to know the incubation period and how contagious are the people that are still in the incubation phase...but again, we STILL DON'T KNOW THAT.


Depending on the situation, an epidemic might take WEEKS before it reaches the stage of hundreds of confirmed cases, which would imply thousands of infected people.

This is a theoretical model for 2 weeks, where all the infected patients are equally contagious, and all of them infect another 2 people :
DAY - INFECTED
1-1
2-2
3-4
4-8
5-16
6-32
7-64
8-128
9-256
10-512
11-1,024
12-2,048
13-4,096
14-8,192

At the end of 14 days, we would have a total of 16,383 infected people.
(At the end of 31 days, we would have like 1.6 billion infected people).

Now, add in a single variable : the infected people are not contagious for 2 days.

Well...this means that it would take 28 days for the same number of 16,383 people to be infected.

Add one more variable : the incubation period is 14 days, and the infection chance for people within the incubation period is half of those that are symptomatic.

This means that we would get the same 16,383 people infected in 56 days.


Obviously, all of the examples are THEORETICAL. But you should get the idea. It HIGHLY depends how contagious people are in the incubation period, after the incubation period, where they live, travel, etc. etc.

What you and everyone else needs to understand is that there are critical stages in an epidemic.

We all know that China lies about the numbers, that is a given. But we also know that China took measures that slowed down the epidemic, mainly full lock-downs of cities (and withing those cities, lock-down of buildings and districts) and provinces and travel restrictions between cities and provinces.

All those measure matter in slowing down an epidemic that is already affecting thousands in 2 or more locations.


My model is a theoretical one, and it might be wrong, but it is closer and closer to reality the more time passes.

I can be off by several days, or even a week or two...the MAIN ISSUE is that except China, NOBODY ELSE took ANY measures to slow down the pandemic WITHIN THEIR COUNTRIES and BETWEEN THEIR COUNTRIES.

Sure, many stopped flights to China...but China didn't stopped flights to other countries. Taking the temperature in airports is completely useless. Well, let's say 99% useless. They might get 1-2 people here and there with fever or whatever.

But did anyone stopped flights between the U.S. and Germany? Or U.K. and Japan? Nope. Everyone is still happily traveling all over the fucking world and nobody is testing them...because it is IMPOSSIBLE to do it.


My model predicts a number of 200-250 million people infected at the end of February 15th. I am 100% SURE AS HELL that I am wrong, because I do not know how and when the first infected guy outside China got infected, who he infected, how contagious he was, the incubation period, where he lives, etc.etc.

But what I do know is that even if I am off by a week...this pandemic is full blown outside China, because NOBODY is stopping traveling between countries, inside countries, nobody is locking-down cities or areas in a city.

In other words, my model numbers for February 15th could be the numbers from February 7th., and there are only 550-700k infected outside China, instead 200-250 million.

Do you think THAT MATTERS even a little bit?

It matters not, because when we are in hundreds of thousands, the models are very close to reality, and instead of having 250 million infected outside China on February 15th...we will have them on February 23rd.

There are so many variables in a model, and if I would have posted THE ENTIRE MODEL I HAVE, it would be a fucking book or a 6 hours power point presentation.

And NOBODY would read it...heck, half the people here didn't even read the entire main post, which is nothing.


Just look at how much time and words I used to answer a SINGLE question.

But I bet a ton of people won't read this entire reply.

Last Edited by deplorable recollector on 02/12/2020 02:17 AM
Anonymous Coward
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........
My model predicts a number of 200-250 million people infected at the end of February 15th.
......
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


The collapse of society will occur within that month, because no health system, whether public or private, holds this amount of increase in the usual load. Even on a world scale, if the cases are perfectly distributed among the cities, it is still too much burden.
In addition, there is the collapse of economic activity that will come together.
In March the world will no longer be as we know it.
piratedon

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02/12/2020 04:14 AM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Thank you op. I have read the entire post and most of your responses. You are quite correct in pointing out that China has taken the actions (draconian or not) that the situation required and no other country appears to have done so. In that absence we might be looking at the rest of the world having the worst of it - we just don't know but we do know in the absence of a halt to travel we have very greatly magnified our statistic risk with all other factors equal.

I have read Tham Khao and his detailed understanding is profound. I have also found professor Gabriel Leung to be very illuminating in educating me.

Your point about the Diamond Princess of how testing is only able to confirm cases not safely identify those without the virus is also illuminating adding to the reality of our vulnerability outside China.

Thank you again!

Last Edited by piratedon on 02/12/2020 04:16 AM
piratedon
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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02/12/2020 05:05 AM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Thank you op. I have read the entire post and most of your responses. You are quite correct in pointing out that China has taken the actions (draconian or not) that the situation required and no other country appears to have done so. In that absence we might be looking at the rest of the world having the worst of it - we just don't know but we do know in the absence of a halt to travel we have very greatly magnified our statistic risk with all other factors equal.

I have read Tham Khao and his detailed understanding is profound. I have also found professor Gabriel Leung to be very illuminating in educating me.

Your point about the Diamond Princess of how testing is only able to confirm cases not safely identify those without the virus is also illuminating adding to the reality of our vulnerability outside China.

Thank you again!
 Quoting: piratedon


Much appreciated.


As I previously stated in one of my replies, I expect this week to be FULL of news...and already A LOT happened. And it's just Wednesday...

We got Japan telling us that they don't have enough testing kits for 3,700 people. That was yesterday.

Also yesterday, 2 buildings evacuated in HK, plus 9 more cases.

Today, Singapore news are basically "SHTF in Singapore imminent".

Also today, from Japan : "As low as 9.2% of the cases are actually confirmed". A quick number crunch : if only 10% of the cases are confirmed, this means that there are at least 10 times more infected people...WITH SYMPTOMS, outside China.

Excluding the cruise ship cases, we are left with 344 confirmed cases, so there are 10 times more, at least, which is 3,444 symptomatic cases outside China.

Why do I say "at least"? Because there is a SEVERE lack of testing kits all over the world, and for every symptomatic case there are roughly 80-100 asymptomatic cases (IF the incubation period is 10 days or shorter...) which means that outside China there are roughly 275,500 to 344,400 infected people.

If we use a 14 days incubation period, there are roughly 120-140 asymptomatic cases for 1 symptomatic case, we have between 413,280 and 482,160 infected people outside China.


And all of the above numbers are for an R0 = 2.0


If the above number is the REAL ONE, my model is off by 6 to 7 days.

But what if the R0 is higher, let's say 2.5? Well, in this case, my model if off by 2-3 days.


As I said multiple times, my model have ONE REASON TO EXIST : to determine WHEN the epidemic will hit the critical numbers to start pressuring the health systems.


My model is a MATHEMATICAL one, and it was posted on January 28th. A LOT of things happened since.


I predicted, based on my model, that Feb.16th-18th is when the number or people needing medical care will be big enough to start pressuring the health systems, starting with HK, Singapore, followed by SK and Japan, and so on.


Is my model off? Most likely. But by how much? Well, it looks like 2-3 days off if R0=2.5 or higher, or 6-7 days if R0=2.0 or slightly lower.



I hope everyone understand that my model, or ANY model, is not a 100% sure thing. All models have errors. But the more time passes and adjustments are made, the models start to get less on the side of error and more on the side of reality.


This week, as I stated multiple times, IS CRUCIAL. The week just started, and already a number of critical information that were speculations or unknown until now, have come to light.

Have patience, there is much more to come this week.

Last Edited by deplorable recollector on 02/12/2020 05:07 AM
Zovalex

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02/12/2020 06:57 AM

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
And NOBODY would read it...heck, half the people here didn't even read the entire main post, which is nothing.


Just look at how much time and words I used to answer a SINGLE question.

But I bet a ton of people won't read this entire reply.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


I am.

I’ve been watching this thread (and the -001 thread) several times a day since they were posted and I’ve been prepping accordingly. Besides ensuring I am well stocked in supplies, yesterday I also converted some investments to cash, and I will be withdrawing all investments from the market next week (despite my 20% return in 2019).
In other words, I and many others of GLP are taking your posts VERY seriously and ACTING on those posts accordingly.

Reading comprehension has long been a problem among many GLPers for many years.

Please don’t become frustrated with the village idiots of GLP. Recognize there is a large and growing crowd that are indeed hanging on your every word (while also understanding it’s a moving target, but a very real target).

Thank you for what you’re doing for all of us.
.

Last Edited by Zovalex on 02/12/2020 07:01 AM
“Mental slavery is the worst form of slavery.
It gives you the illusion of freedom,
makes you trust, love, and defend your oppressor,
while making an enemy of those
who are trying to free you or open your eyes.”
-Fiyah

“None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free.”
-Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

“Freedom of Speech really means never saying anything that The System doesn’t like.
Those who conform...believe they have a freedom that doesn’t actually exist. Freedom to conform is not freedom.”
-David Icke
Azaziah

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02/12/2020 07:24 AM

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
ITS LIKE A MASSIVE SLOW MOTION TRAIN WRECK - That’s what it feels like we are watching – a massive slow motion catastrophic train wreck as it is happening live. Lots and lots of conspiracy stories developing from aliens to the UN. Doesn’t matter at this point. The only thing that matters at this point is how serious is this virus going to be for each one of us. Sleep does not come as easily as usual, for many of us now. I am only posting in this thread as some of you know. Props to Lady Jayne Smith for keeping this thread short and clean. Hats off to you. I still believe OPs numbers are good. The issue I am focusing on now is Wuhan numbers and deaths outside of China. Ratios and reporting numbers should really start moving, starting tonight coming from outside of China. I am afraid the Wuhan numbers that will be reported beginning with todays or tomorrow’s numbers (numbers will be bogus of course) will start to decrease as these newly reported decreasing numbers will be interpreted by global media as the virus is dying and all will be normal soon. We are already seeing hints of this in the media. Do not be fooled by this.

Also the global supply chain is already beginning to decrease and freight ship activity leaving the China region is already slowing down. Large companies are already closing plants temporarily (yeah right) because of China supply chain issues. This is huge as these corporate measures will affect shareholders thus affecting the market price of the company’s share price. It is the prudent thing to do as a CEO but the equivalent of cutting off your leg to stay alive. This entire CoV event might be a global reset orchestrated to forgive sovereign (each countries) debt while culling the entire global herd too. See I told you there are lots of conspiracy theories. But this one (mine) is making more and more sense to me. It still does not change my firm belief that - Where you live will determine if/how you survive this ordeal.

Below I am providing some items you might want to get for this and any future event. They will come in handy and may not be available for too much longer (remember supply chain). Just search the term on Amazon or elsewhere. I do know all these items are still available at Amazon and can be delivered to your door next day delivery.

Oxygen Blood Level Meter (this is very important) - $15-$20
Virus Killing Light or Light Bulb - $16-$150
Make Your Own Colloidal Silver - $30- $200
Clear Lungs Supplement Extra Strong (Excellent, I use it daily) - $25
Cytokine Suppress Supplement - $17
 Quoting: IdeaMan1624


I wanted to follow up on this as I have a first-hand experience. Back when this whole thing broke around the 17th, in one of the threads someone suggested the Clear Lungs supplement. I bought a bottle and haven't thought about it since.

Well, 2 days ago I picked up some sort of respiratory sickness with stuffy head, coughing, and a headache (no fever). So about 4 hours ago I said what the hell, I'll give the Clear Lungs a try. Dayquill was doing nothing.

After about 1-1/2 hours I showed a very nice improvement. I became less congested and could breath easier. I'm not going to claim a miraculous cure or anything, but if I put a number to it I went from 25% effective to 50-60% effective. So just an FYI, it did seem to help me.
 Quoting: Bud Fox



Good for you. I think it is the bomb. It has allowed me to get that deep full lungs breath anytime I desire. It has really helped me I take one in the morning and one before bed every day for 2-3 years now. Really has helped me.
 Quoting: IdeaMan1624


An amazon search yields a variety of results... care to share a brand or the specific product that is working for you?

Thank you!
Inventor of the LongShot for GoPro, inventor of the Armored Battery System, inventor of the JuiceBox alt energy system.
Dad, husband, tinkerer, Head of R&D at Hardened Power Systems, USA and saved sinner.


We build personal, portable alt-energy systems that are designed to keep your gear running when nothing else is...
IdeaMan1624

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02/12/2020 08:07 AM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
ITS LIKE A MASSIVE SLOW MOTION TRAIN WRECK - That’s what it feels like we are watching – a massive slow motion catastrophic train wreck as it is happening live. Lots and lots of conspiracy stories developing from aliens to the UN. Doesn’t matter at this point. The only thing that matters at this point is how serious is this virus going to be for each one of us. Sleep does not come as easily as usual, for many of us now. I am only posting in this thread as some of you know. Props to Lady Jayne Smith for keeping this thread short and clean. Hats off to you. I still believe OPs numbers are good. The issue I am focusing on now is Wuhan numbers and deaths outside of China. Ratios and reporting numbers should really start moving, starting tonight coming from outside of China. I am afraid the Wuhan numbers that will be reported beginning with todays or tomorrow’s numbers (numbers will be bogus of course) will start to decrease as these newly reported decreasing numbers will be interpreted by global media as the virus is dying and all will be normal soon. We are already seeing hints of this in the media. Do not be fooled by this.

Also the global supply chain is already beginning to decrease and freight ship activity leaving the China region is already slowing down. Large companies are already closing plants temporarily (yeah right) because of China supply chain issues. This is huge as these corporate measures will affect shareholders thus affecting the market price of the company’s share price. It is the prudent thing to do as a CEO but the equivalent of cutting off your leg to stay alive. This entire CoV event might be a global reset orchestrated to forgive sovereign (each countries) debt while culling the entire global herd too. See I told you there are lots of conspiracy theories. But this one (mine) is making more and more sense to me. It still does not change my firm belief that - Where you live will determine if/how you survive this ordeal.

Below I am providing some items you might want to get for this and any future event. They will come in handy and may not be available for too much longer (remember supply chain). Just search the term on Amazon or elsewhere. I do know all these items are still available at Amazon and can be delivered to your door next day delivery.

Oxygen Blood Level Meter (this is very important) - $15-$20
Virus Killing Light or Light Bulb - $16-$150
Make Your Own Colloidal Silver - $30- $200
Clear Lungs Supplement Extra Strong (Excellent, I use it daily) - $25
Cytokine Suppress Supplement - $17
 Quoting: IdeaMan1624


I wanted to follow up on this as I have a first-hand experience. Back when this whole thing broke around the 17th, in one of the threads someone suggested the Clear Lungs supplement. I bought a bottle and haven't thought about it since.

Well, 2 days ago I picked up some sort of respiratory sickness with stuffy head, coughing, and a headache (no fever). So about 4 hours ago I said what the hell, I'll give the Clear Lungs a try. Dayquill was doing nothing.

After about 1-1/2 hours I showed a very nice improvement. I became less congested and could breath easier. I'm not going to claim a miraculous cure or anything, but if I put a number to it I went from 25% effective to 50-60% effective. So just an FYI, it did seem to help me.
 Quoting: Bud Fox



Good for you. I think it is the bomb. It has allowed me to get that deep full lungs breath anytime I desire. It has really helped me I take one in the morning and one before bed every day for 2-3 years now. Really has helped me.
 Quoting: IdeaMan1624


An amazon search yields a variety of results... care to share a brand or the specific product that is working for you?

Thank you!
 Quoting: Azaziah


I usually do not endorse products, but these are special times. I have been using Ridgecrest ClearLungs Extra Strength for several years now. One pill in the morning and one at night. It has really helped me. Helped me stop snoring too. I did not mention in my previous post about "Hydrogen Water" pills. Amazon or web search that phrase. It adds oxygen immediately to your body. I only use HRW brand maximum strength. I hope this helps you and others.
IdeaMan1624
Azaziah

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02/12/2020 08:13 AM

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
...


I wanted to follow up on this as I have a first-hand experience. Back when this whole thing broke around the 17th, in one of the threads someone suggested the Clear Lungs supplement. I bought a bottle and haven't thought about it since.

Well, 2 days ago I picked up some sort of respiratory sickness with stuffy head, coughing, and a headache (no fever). So about 4 hours ago I said what the hell, I'll give the Clear Lungs a try. Dayquill was doing nothing.

After about 1-1/2 hours I showed a very nice improvement. I became less congested and could breath easier. I'm not going to claim a miraculous cure or anything, but if I put a number to it I went from 25% effective to 50-60% effective. So just an FYI, it did seem to help me.
 Quoting: Bud Fox



Good for you. I think it is the bomb. It has allowed me to get that deep full lungs breath anytime I desire. It has really helped me I take one in the morning and one before bed every day for 2-3 years now. Really has helped me.
 Quoting: IdeaMan1624


An amazon search yields a variety of results... care to share a brand or the specific product that is working for you?

Thank you!
 Quoting: Azaziah


I usually do not endorse products, but these are special times. I have been using Ridgecrest ClearLungs Extra Strength for several years now. One pill in the morning and one at night. It has really helped me. Helped me stop snoring too. I did not mention in my previous post about "Hydrogen Water" pills. Amazon or web search that phrase. It adds oxygen immediately to your body. I only use HRW brand maximum strength. I hope this helps you and others.
 Quoting: IdeaMan1624


Thank you. Order placed.

hf
Inventor of the LongShot for GoPro, inventor of the Armored Battery System, inventor of the JuiceBox alt energy system.
Dad, husband, tinkerer, Head of R&D at Hardened Power Systems, USA and saved sinner.


We build personal, portable alt-energy systems that are designed to keep your gear running when nothing else is...
Anonymous Coward
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02/12/2020 08:37 AM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
OP, you show approximately a doubling every day for cases outside of China. Please explain.

If that was the case, the pandemic would have been over in China by early January. As it is, they have yet to reach the peak of the pandemic after over two months.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77706747



Why would the epidemic been over in China by early January?

Do you know when it started? Because not even the Chinese know.

In theory, the entire population of China would be infected in 1 month. Yes, in THEORY, and in perfect circumstances, in 31 days, the entire on China would be infected.

But in real world, there are thousands of reason why an epidemic might get slower or faster.

We don't know much about China in general, and Wuhan, especially. There is very possible, and highly probable that the epidemic was in Wuhan for a very long time, and I have no time or the will to write a paper on this subject.

The R0 is nothing but a theoretical value, that is used in MODELING, and not applied to the real world.

We know that Wuhan is a main transportation hub, and this is the main reason why the epidemic spread all over China, but we don't know WHEN and HOW.

When an epidemic starts, there is a patient Zero. The Patient Zero might not be contagious for DAYS...or he might be contagious after 1 minute. We DO NOT KNOW.

Same for patients 1 and 2, infected by P0 at some point. They also might become contagious after DAYS.
Again, WE DO NOT KNOW.

P0 might have been stayed indoors, with P1 and P2, his buddies, for 3-4 days, with booze and food...or all of them might have been traveling to separate destinations in day 1 : one to Shanghai, one to Beijing, and one to Shenzen.

WE DON'T KNOW.


So, yes, while in theory, in 7 days there might be 127 infected people...there might as well be only 13, or 17, or 310, depending on how contagious were the infected people, where they work (or not), how they travel, when and where, what social life they have, family size, where their family lives, where they go, etc. etc.

WE DON'T KNOW.


What we ALMOST know, is when the critical stages are reached in an epidemic, mainly when there are hundreds of CONFIRMED cases, in 2 or more locations, and when those cases were confirmed

From that point on, the models begin to get closer to reality...but the models are still far from reality. We still need to know the incubation period and how contagious are the people that are still in the incubation phase...but again, we STILL DON'T KNOW THAT.


Depending on the situation, an epidemic might take WEEKS before it reaches the stage of hundreds of confirmed cases, which would imply thousands of infected people.

This is a theoretical model for 2 weeks, where all the infected patients are equally contagious, and all of them infect another 2 people :
DAY - INFECTED
1-1
2-2
3-4
4-8
5-16
6-32
7-64
8-128
9-256
10-512
11-1,024
12-2,048
13-4,096
14-8,192

At the end of 14 days, we would have a total of 16,383 infected people.
(At the end of 31 days, we would have like 1.6 billion infected people).

Now, add in a single variable : the infected people are not contagious for 2 days.

Well...this means that it would take 28 days for the same number of 16,383 people to be infected.

Add one more variable : the incubation period is 14 days, and the infection chance for people within the incubation period is half of those that are symptomatic.

This means that we would get the same 16,383 people infected in 56 days.


Obviously, all of the examples are THEORETICAL. But you should get the idea. It HIGHLY depends how contagious people are in the incubation period, after the incubation period, where they live, travel, etc. etc.

What you and everyone else needs to understand is that there are critical stages in an epidemic.

We all know that China lies about the numbers, that is a given. But we also know that China took measures that slowed down the epidemic, mainly full lock-downs of cities (and withing those cities, lock-down of buildings and districts) and provinces and travel restrictions between cities and provinces.

All those measure matter in slowing down an epidemic that is already affecting thousands in 2 or more locations.


My model is a theoretical one, and it might be wrong, but it is closer and closer to reality the more time passes.

I can be off by several days, or even a week or two...the MAIN ISSUE is that except China, NOBODY ELSE took ANY measures to slow down the pandemic WITHIN THEIR COUNTRIES and BETWEEN THEIR COUNTRIES.

Sure, many stopped flights to China...but China didn't stopped flights to other countries. Taking the temperature in airports is completely useless. Well, let's say 99% useless. They might get 1-2 people here and there with fever or whatever.

But did anyone stopped flights between the U.S. and Germany? Or U.K. and Japan? Nope. Everyone is still happily traveling all over the fucking world and nobody is testing them...because it is IMPOSSIBLE to do it.


My model predicts a number of 200-250 million people infected at the end of February 15th. I am 100% SURE AS HELL that I am wrong, because I do not know how and when the first infected guy outside China got infected, who he infected, how contagious he was, the incubation period, where he lives, etc.etc.

But what I do know is that even if I am off by a week...this pandemic is full blown outside China, because NOBODY is stopping traveling between countries, inside countries, nobody is locking-down cities or areas in a city.

In other words, my model numbers for February 15th could be the numbers from February 7th., and there are only 550-700k infected outside China, instead 200-250 million.

Do you think THAT MATTERS even a little bit?

It matters not, because when we are in hundreds of thousands, the models are very close to reality, and instead of having 250 million infected outside China on February 15th...we will have them on February 23rd.

There are so many variables in a model, and if I would have posted THE ENTIRE MODEL I HAVE, it would be a fucking book or a 6 hours power point presentation.

And NOBODY would read it...heck, half the people here didn't even read the entire main post, which is nothing.


Just look at how much time and words I used to answer a SINGLE question.

But I bet a ton of people won't read this entire reply.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Thanks for explaining.

We have real world effects that will come to light and will point to an average R0 in China.

Are all in Wuhan infected who can be? Unlikely, but they are getting there. If the Japanese evacuation flight (1.5% infected) was a data point in time, then we can estimate from the beginning of December the progression. Today the infected % in Wuhan may be around 17%. This includes the millions that escaped prior to lockdown.

Once we have indications the virus has reached its peak in China, we can backtrack and determine the progression rate.

The developed world R0 with SARS was between .4 RO, with perfect practical isolation measures, to just below 1 RO.

We apply that to the China R0 and can estimate its progression in the developed world. The China R0 could be reasonably applied to India and Africa.

Truth be told, this virus may be so fast moving that any predicted range of R0 may mean only weeks of difference between estimated dates of world NCoV saturation.
Anonymous Coward
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02/12/2020 08:42 AM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Thank you op. I have read the entire post and most of your responses. You are quite correct in pointing out that China has taken the actions (draconian or not) that the situation required and no other country appears to have done so. In that absence we might be looking at the rest of the world having the worst of it - we just don't know but we do know in the absence of a halt to travel we have very greatly magnified our statistic risk with all other factors equal.

I have read Tham Khao and his detailed understanding is profound. I have also found professor Gabriel Leung to be very illuminating in educating me.

Your point about the Diamond Princess of how testing is only able to confirm cases not safely identify those without the virus is also illuminating adding to the reality of our vulnerability outside China.

Thank you again!
 Quoting: piratedon


Much appreciated.


As I previously stated in one of my replies, I expect this week to be FULL of news...and already A LOT happened. And it's just Wednesday...

We got Japan telling us that they don't have enough testing kits for 3,700 people. That was yesterday.

Also yesterday, 2 buildings evacuated in HK, plus 9 more cases.

Today, Singapore news are basically "SHTF in Singapore imminent".

Also today, from Japan : "As low as 9.2% of the cases are actually confirmed". A quick number crunch : if only 10% of the cases are confirmed, this means that there are at least 10 times more infected people...WITH SYMPTOMS, outside China.

Excluding the cruise ship cases, we are left with 344 confirmed cases, so there are 10 times more, at least, which is 3,444 symptomatic cases outside China.

Why do I say "at least"? Because there is a SEVERE lack of testing kits all over the world, and for every symptomatic case there are roughly 80-100 asymptomatic cases (IF the incubation period is 10 days or shorter...) which means that outside China there are roughly 275,500 to 344,400 infected people.

If we use a 14 days incubation period, there are roughly 120-140 asymptomatic cases for 1 symptomatic case, we have between 413,280 and 482,160 infected people outside China.


And all of the above numbers are for an R0 = 2.0


If the above number is the REAL ONE, my model is off by 6 to 7 days.

But what if the R0 is higher, let's say 2.5? Well, in this case, my model if off by 2-3 days.


As I said multiple times, my model have ONE REASON TO EXIST : to determine WHEN the epidemic will hit the critical numbers to start pressuring the health systems.


My model is a MATHEMATICAL one, and it was posted on January 28th. A LOT of things happened since.


I predicted, based on my model, that Feb.16th-18th is when the number or people needing medical care will be big enough to start pressuring the health systems, starting with HK, Singapore, followed by SK and Japan, and so on.


Is my model off? Most likely. But by how much? Well, it looks like 2-3 days off if R0=2.5 or higher, or 6-7 days if R0=2.0 or slightly lower.



I hope everyone understand that my model, or ANY model, is not a 100% sure thing. All models have errors. But the more time passes and adjustments are made, the models start to get less on the side of error and more on the side of reality.


This week, as I stated multiple times, IS CRUCIAL. The week just started, and already a number of critical information that were speculations or unknown until now, have come to light.

Have patience, there is much more to come this week.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector



Thank you for sticking with your OP.
I represent many loved ones.
Using your “live” knowledge, I continue to update and persuade them all of the jeopardy we all are in here in Alberta.
I can’t prove it, but I know Covid-19 is already here.
We will see it overload the health systems soon, by March I believe for sure.

Keep up the fight.
You are saving lives.

Kept
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 77706747
United States
02/12/2020 08:50 AM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
OP, any word on the COVID infection in your town?
exiled wine

User ID: 78463008
Taiwan
02/12/2020 08:58 AM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Thanks OP





GLP