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LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87

 
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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02/12/2020 09:10 AM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
OP, any word on the COVID infection in your town?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77706747


Test came back negative.

Patient still in quarantine.
Anonymous Coward
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02/12/2020 09:19 AM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Murderous superspreader caught in the act?

[link to twitter.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77706747


One thing to think about is human nature and envy. There are some narcissists who will come down with this virus and strike back at those who are healthy.

All the more reason to shelter in place when the time comes.
mr. jingles

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Bad link nevermind

Last Edited by mr. jingles on 02/12/2020 09:28 AM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
OP, you show approximately a doubling every day for cases outside of China. Please explain.

If that was the case, the pandemic would have been over in China by early January. As it is, they have yet to reach the peak of the pandemic after over two months.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77706747



Why would the epidemic been over in China by early January?

Do you know when it started? Because not even the Chinese know.

In theory, the entire population of China would be infected in 1 month. Yes, in THEORY, and in perfect circumstances, in 31 days, the entire on China would be infected.

But in real world, there are thousands of reason why an epidemic might get slower or faster.

We don't know much about China in general, and Wuhan, especially. There is very possible, and highly probable that the epidemic was in Wuhan for a very long time, and I have no time or the will to write a paper on this subject.

The R0 is nothing but a theoretical value, that is used in MODELING, and not applied to the real world.

We know that Wuhan is a main transportation hub, and this is the main reason why the epidemic spread all over China, but we don't know WHEN and HOW.

When an epidemic starts, there is a patient Zero. The Patient Zero might not be contagious for DAYS...or he might be contagious after 1 minute. We DO NOT KNOW.

Same for patients 1 and 2, infected by P0 at some point. They also might become contagious after DAYS.
Again, WE DO NOT KNOW.

P0 might have been stayed indoors, with P1 and P2, his buddies, for 3-4 days, with booze and food...or all of them might have been traveling to separate destinations in day 1 : one to Shanghai, one to Beijing, and one to Shenzen.

WE DON'T KNOW.


So, yes, while in theory, in 7 days there might be 127 infected people...there might as well be only 13, or 17, or 310, depending on how contagious were the infected people, where they work (or not), how they travel, when and where, what social life they have, family size, where their family lives, where they go, etc. etc.

WE DON'T KNOW.


What we ALMOST know, is when the critical stages are reached in an epidemic, mainly when there are hundreds of CONFIRMED cases, in 2 or more locations, and when those cases were confirmed

From that point on, the models begin to get closer to reality...but the models are still far from reality. We still need to know the incubation period and how contagious are the people that are still in the incubation phase...but again, we STILL DON'T KNOW THAT.


Depending on the situation, an epidemic might take WEEKS before it reaches the stage of hundreds of confirmed cases, which would imply thousands of infected people.

This is a theoretical model for 2 weeks, where all the infected patients are equally contagious, and all of them infect another 2 people :
DAY - INFECTED
1-1
2-2
3-4
4-8
5-16
6-32
7-64
8-128
9-256
10-512
11-1,024
12-2,048
13-4,096
14-8,192

At the end of 14 days, we would have a total of 16,383 infected people.
(At the end of 31 days, we would have like 1.6 billion infected people).

Now, add in a single variable : the infected people are not contagious for 2 days.

Well...this means that it would take 28 days for the same number of 16,383 people to be infected.

Add one more variable : the incubation period is 14 days, and the infection chance for people within the incubation period is half of those that are symptomatic.

This means that we would get the same 16,383 people infected in 56 days.


Obviously, all of the examples are THEORETICAL. But you should get the idea. It HIGHLY depends how contagious people are in the incubation period, after the incubation period, where they live, travel, etc. etc.

What you and everyone else needs to understand is that there are critical stages in an epidemic.

We all know that China lies about the numbers, that is a given. But we also know that China took measures that slowed down the epidemic, mainly full lock-downs of cities (and withing those cities, lock-down of buildings and districts) and provinces and travel restrictions between cities and provinces.

All those measure matter in slowing down an epidemic that is already affecting thousands in 2 or more locations.


My model is a theoretical one, and it might be wrong, but it is closer and closer to reality the more time passes.

I can be off by several days, or even a week or two...the MAIN ISSUE is that except China, NOBODY ELSE took ANY measures to slow down the pandemic WITHIN THEIR COUNTRIES and BETWEEN THEIR COUNTRIES.

Sure, many stopped flights to China...but China didn't stopped flights to other countries. Taking the temperature in airports is completely useless. Well, let's say 99% useless. They might get 1-2 people here and there with fever or whatever.

But did anyone stopped flights between the U.S. and Germany? Or U.K. and Japan? Nope. Everyone is still happily traveling all over the fucking world and nobody is testing them...because it is IMPOSSIBLE to do it.


My model predicts a number of 200-250 million people infected at the end of February 15th. I am 100% SURE AS HELL that I am wrong, because I do not know how and when the first infected guy outside China got infected, who he infected, how contagious he was, the incubation period, where he lives, etc.etc.

But what I do know is that even if I am off by a week...this pandemic is full blown outside China, because NOBODY is stopping traveling between countries, inside countries, nobody is locking-down cities or areas in a city.

In other words, my model numbers for February 15th could be the numbers from February 7th., and there are only 550-700k infected outside China, instead 200-250 million.

Do you think THAT MATTERS even a little bit?

It matters not, because when we are in hundreds of thousands, the models are very close to reality, and instead of having 250 million infected outside China on February 15th...we will have them on February 23rd.

There are so many variables in a model, and if I would have posted THE ENTIRE MODEL I HAVE, it would be a fucking book or a 6 hours power point presentation.

And NOBODY would read it...heck, half the people here didn't even read the entire main post, which is nothing.


Just look at how much time and words I used to answer a SINGLE question.

But I bet a ton of people won't read this entire reply.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


99% of us are very thankful for your work, and read it in detail. Please ignore the naysayers.

grouphug
Fate whispers to the warrior

"You cannot withstand the storm"

and the warrior whispers back

"I am the storm"

INTJ:
Independent, original, analytical, and determined. Have an exceptional ability to turn theories into solid plans of action. Highly value knowledge, competence, and structure. Driven to derive meaning from their visions. Long-range thinkers. Have very high standards for their performance, and the performance of others. Natural leaders, but will follow if they trust existing leaders.

Life is karma and karma always reflects both past and present circumstance. Our time here is short, so choose carefully and behave well, for all of your tomorrows are presently being decided.

"A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool."
-- William Shakespeare, born April 23, 1564.

Follow. But! Follow only if ye be men of valor! For the entrance to this cave is guarded by a creature so foul, so cruel, that no man yet has fought with it... and lived! BONES of full fifty men lie *strewn* about its lair! So! Brave knights! If you do doubt your courage or your strength, come no further, for death awaits you all with nasty, big, pointy teeth...

KillerBunnyMask
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
what about the people who survive this? are they infectious forever? so much we dont know.
Close_with&destroy

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
OP, thank you for your work. I have followed since your original post. The information you have provided is clear and easy to understand. I am using it to prepare my family and have provided it to the very few coworkers/friends that take this seriously.

Please don't let the naysayers get to you. I have no doubt they are an aggravation to you, however, you have more support than you know. Just from me sharing to others that dont visit GLP, your work has help at least 10 others, and their families, prepare for what is to come.

Keep up the good work!
Close_with&destroy
DanManKY

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
And NOBODY would read it...heck, half the people here didn't even read the entire main post, which is nothing.


Just look at how much time and words I used to answer a SINGLE question.

But I bet a ton of people won't read this entire reply.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


I am.

I’ve been watching this thread (and the -001 thread) several times a day since they were posted and I’ve been prepping accordingly. Besides ensuring I am well stocked in supplies, yesterday I also converted some investments to cash, and I will be withdrawing all investments from the market next week (despite my 20% return in 2019).
In other words, I and many others of GLP are taking your posts VERY seriously and ACTING on those posts accordingly.

Reading comprehension has long been a problem among many GLPers for many years.

Please don’t become frustrated with the village idiots of GLP. Recognize there is a large and growing crowd that are indeed hanging on your every word (while also understanding it’s a moving target, but a very real target).

Thank you for what you’re doing for all of us.
.
 Quoting: Zovalex



I am also watching this thread and some others as well. I hope I did not make a knee jerk reaction but I liquidated a sizeable amount of my retirement assets last Friday (I was concerned about what may happen over the weekend) and expect to do some more later this week. (I was needing to diversify some anyway and this motivated me to begin). But the stock market keeps going up to my amazement. Maybe I am just way ahead of the curve in what will inevitably happen. I will probably put this in short term cd's and watch and wait. If the absolute worst happens, it probably won't matter what I did but it's good to have some dry powder in circumstances like this IMO.

OP......thanks for your efforts.
Anonymous Coward
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Bunch of idiots for pulling out all of your investments. You're losing money over a big nothing burger and fear mongering.
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
[link to futurism.com (secure)]

*HEADS UP* ... people on the same building, but several floors apart got the infection... seems to live pretty well on floating on the air... its still an educated guess, but, seems to be legit
xBl4ckFir3x
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
bump for updates and a question, Could you specify what each number refers to?

Feb 12th: 22,392,000 /27,990,000 infected /196,500/ 245,600 with symptoms

Blues are medium and red severe?

Last Edited by xBl4ckFir3x on 02/12/2020 12:03 PM
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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02/12/2020 01:22 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
bump for updates and a question, Could you specify what each number refers to?

Feb 12th: 22,392,000 /27,990,000 infected /196,500/ 245,600 with symptoms

Blues are medium and red severe?
 Quoting: xBl4ckFir3x


Blue is minimum, red is medium, as it is specified in the main post. The initial model was with the medium numbers only, after February 5th., which was calculated for a 2.4-2.6 R0.

I added a minimum number as well, for a lower R0, closer to 2.0-2.2.

I avoided to add a maximum number, for a higher R0, because most experts, except very few, excluded an R0 higher than 2.5.

Last Edited by deplorable recollector on 02/12/2020 01:27 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
dr, I very much appreciate all the work you have done here.

While there is still entirely too much that we don't know, we can know for certain that the economic effect of China tanking is going to have severe ramifications for the rest of the developed world. Just that alone will be difficult.

Then there are all the things we don't know, like average lethal infections, length of times for infectivity before and after symptoms, whether or not there will even be a test that is better than 40% accurate, and on and on.

So we can only prepare as best we can. There's no containing this. And I suspect a great number of existent pneumonia cases are actually Covid 19.

I'm still looking at the Japanese cruise ship as our control model. Do you agree or disagree with that view?

Obviously there are numerous variables we don't know, like age, health status even nationalities of the people on board, nor do we know about their diets and/or supplements.
Things are bad enough, there is no need to make anything up.

"Never interrupt an enemy in the process of destroying himself."...Q
Close_with&destroy

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
OP, didn't know if you had seen this paper from Los Alamos, it appears it came out on Feb 7th. This paper places the RO at 4.7-6.6:

[link to www.medrxiv.org (secure)]

[link to www.medrxiv.org (secure)]

Last Edited by Close_with&destroy on 02/12/2020 02:09 PM
Close_with&destroy
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
And NOBODY would read it...heck, half the people here didn't even read the entire main post, which is nothing.


Just look at how much time and words I used to answer a SINGLE question.

But I bet a ton of people won't read this entire reply.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


I am.

I’ve been watching this thread (and the -001 thread) several times a day since they were posted and I’ve been prepping accordingly. Besides ensuring I am well stocked in supplies, yesterday I also converted some investments to cash, and I will be withdrawing all investments from the market next week (despite my 20% return in 2019).
In other words, I and many others of GLP are taking your posts VERY seriously and ACTING on those posts accordingly.

Reading comprehension has long been a problem among many GLPers for many years.

Please don’t become frustrated with the village idiots of GLP. Recognize there is a large and growing crowd that are indeed hanging on your every word (while also understanding it’s a moving target, but a very real target).

Thank you for what you’re doing for all of us.
.
 Quoting: Zovalex


I did the same, closed all my positions in stocks and other investments and will not invest in anything again until there is a definition of what will happen.
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
OP, didn't know if you had seen this paper from Los Alamos, it appears it came out on Feb 7th. This paper places the RO at 4.7-6.6:

[link to www.medrxiv.org (secure)]

[link to www.medrxiv.org (secure)]
 Quoting: Close_with&destroy



I have seen it, but I choose to ignore because it is based on China numbers.

Not only that, but if the R0 would indeed be over 4.0, the world would be already fucked, today.


My model is built on an R0 value of 2.4-2.6. Granted, it is a mathematical model, and not a true epidemic model...because I do not have the data. CDC doesn't have it...and if they do have it, they don't make it public.


An epidemic model of R0 value over 4.0 might have lower numbers than a mathematical model built on an R0 of 2.2., because an epidemic model have the data from infection cycle, or hop.

I do not know if the cycle is 24 hrs, or 9 hrs...or 72 hrs. I have no idea, because such information is not available.

I chose my cycle to be 24 hrs, based on what a normal person, infected with the virus, does in 24 hrs : wakes up, goes to work and come back home.

Now, that person is asymptomatic at first, and he might or might not be contagious enough to spread the virus to other 2.4-2.6 people in 24 hrs.

He might get infected on a Friday, and he doesn't go to work on Saturday and Sunday. He might live alone. Or he have a big family...

All these variables are taken into consideration when making a model, and as I said, my model, the LONGER this pandemic goes unchecked, the closer will be to the real numbers, because all the variables start to balance toward a mathematical constant.


Think of this model like a fishing contest, where someone tries to determine the median number of fish caught in 24 hrs., while the number of fishermen involved in the contest rises every day.

The more fishermen are present, the better the determination of the median number of fish caught, and at some point, the mathematical value will be almost 100% correct.


The more people get infected and them more time passes, the variables start to equalize toward a mathematical number.

Last Edited by deplorable recollector on 02/12/2020 02:36 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
First case in London

[link to mobile.twitter.com (secure)]

And so it beginns...

Do you think they could quarantine London? The city would go apeshit.
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
OP, didn't know if you had seen this paper from Los Alamos, it appears it came out on Feb 7th. This paper places the RO at 4.7-6.6:

[link to www.medrxiv.org (secure)]

[link to www.medrxiv.org (secure)]
 Quoting: Close_with&destroy


If that is true, we are screwed beyond imagination and everything the OP has written so far has been too optimistic.
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
OP, didn't know if you had seen this paper from Los Alamos, it appears it came out on Feb 7th. This paper places the RO at 4.7-6.6:

[link to www.medrxiv.org (secure)]

[link to www.medrxiv.org (secure)]
 Quoting: Close_with&destroy


If that is true, we are screwed beyond imagination and everything the OP has written so far has been too optimistic.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78238428


THE OP HAS STATED NUMEROUS TIMES THAT HIS MODEL IS OPTIMISTIC/CONSERVATIVE.

HEY OP,

HOW MUCH CLOSER ARE WE TO DOOMSDAY?

THANKS FOR YOUR FINE WORK!
Bud Fox

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02/12/2020 02:52 PM

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
ITS LIKE A MASSIVE SLOW MOTION TRAIN WRECK - That’s what it feels like we are watching – a massive slow motion catastrophic train wreck as it is happening live. Lots and lots of conspiracy stories developing from aliens to the UN. Doesn’t matter at this point. The only thing that matters at this point is how serious is this virus going to be for each one of us. Sleep does not come as easily as usual, for many of us now. I am only posting in this thread as some of you know. Props to Lady Jayne Smith for keeping this thread short and clean. Hats off to you. I still believe OPs numbers are good. The issue I am focusing on now is Wuhan numbers and deaths outside of China. Ratios and reporting numbers should really start moving, starting tonight coming from outside of China. I am afraid the Wuhan numbers that will be reported beginning with todays or tomorrow’s numbers (numbers will be bogus of course) will start to decrease as these newly reported decreasing numbers will be interpreted by global media as the virus is dying and all will be normal soon. We are already seeing hints of this in the media. Do not be fooled by this.

Also the global supply chain is already beginning to decrease and freight ship activity leaving the China region is already slowing down. Large companies are already closing plants temporarily (yeah right) because of China supply chain issues. This is huge as these corporate measures will affect shareholders thus affecting the market price of the company’s share price. It is the prudent thing to do as a CEO but the equivalent of cutting off your leg to stay alive. This entire CoV event might be a global reset orchestrated to forgive sovereign (each countries) debt while culling the entire global herd too. See I told you there are lots of conspiracy theories. But this one (mine) is making more and more sense to me. It still does not change my firm belief that - Where you live will determine if/how you survive this ordeal.

Below I am providing some items you might want to get for this and any future event. They will come in handy and may not be available for too much longer (remember supply chain). Just search the term on Amazon or elsewhere. I do know all these items are still available at Amazon and can be delivered to your door next day delivery.

Oxygen Blood Level Meter (this is very important) - $15-$20
Virus Killing Light or Light Bulb - $16-$150
Make Your Own Colloidal Silver - $30- $200
Clear Lungs Supplement Extra Strong (Excellent, I use it daily) - $25
Cytokine Suppress Supplement - $17
 Quoting: IdeaMan1624


I wanted to follow up on this as I have a first-hand experience. Back when this whole thing broke around the 17th, in one of the threads someone suggested the Clear Lungs supplement. I bought a bottle and haven't thought about it since.

Well, 2 days ago I picked up some sort of respiratory sickness with stuffy head, coughing, and a headache (no fever). So about 4 hours ago I said what the hell, I'll give the Clear Lungs a try. Dayquill was doing nothing.

After about 1-1/2 hours I showed a very nice improvement. I became less congested and could breath easier. I'm not going to claim a miraculous cure or anything, but if I put a number to it I went from 25% effective to 50-60% effective. So just an FYI, it did seem to help me.
 Quoting: Bud Fox



Good for you. I think it is the bomb. It has allowed me to get that deep full lungs breath anytime I desire. It has really helped me I take one in the morning and one before bed every day for 2-3 years now. Really has helped me.
 Quoting: IdeaMan1624


An amazon search yields a variety of results... care to share a brand or the specific product that is working for you?

Thank you!
 Quoting: Azaziah


The one I ordered was the Ridgecrest Herbals Clear Lungs - Chinese Herbal Formula. It worked well for me. Next time I will try Extra Strength as the other poster suggested, just to see if it is better.

[link to www.amazon.com (secure)]
Blue Horseshoe loves GLP
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
OP, didn't know if you had seen this paper from Los Alamos, it appears it came out on Feb 7th. This paper places the RO at 4.7-6.6:

[link to www.medrxiv.org (secure)]

[link to www.medrxiv.org (secure)]
 Quoting: Close_with&destroy


If that is true, we are screwed beyond imagination and everything the OP has written so far has been too optimistic.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78238428


THE OP HAS STATED NUMEROUS TIMES THAT HIS MODEL IS OPTIMISTIC/CONSERVATIVE.

HEY OP,

HOW MUCH CLOSER ARE WE TO DOOMSDAY?

THANKS FOR YOUR FINE WORK!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78309681


There is no "doom's day", what will happen is that, in the next few days, it may start to have outbreaks all over the world and there will probably be at least one case of panic in a big city. But if you want a specific day, from what I understand from what OP wrote, I would say, February 18th.
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
First case in London

[link to mobile.twitter.com (secure)]

And so it beginns...

Do you think they could quarantine London? The city would go apeshit.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78442634



There won't be any quarantines in the West, as long as the hospitals are managing the influx of patients.

After that point, anything is possible, but London won't be in a lock-down.

Some areas, in South and East London, might be actually be quarantined, because, well, those area are the most "diverse", if you catch my drift.

I lived in London for almost 3 years...traveling on daily basis across all London. Like any other major city, the underground system is overcrowded. ONE INFECTED person on Central Line at rush hour, and London is toast.


If London or other major capital in the West will ever reach the need for a total lock-down...the world is done for decades, if not more.

It will be the worst-case scenario.

Last Edited by deplorable recollector on 02/12/2020 03:26 PM
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
OP, didn't know if you had seen this paper from Los Alamos, it appears it came out on Feb 7th. This paper places the RO at 4.7-6.6:

[link to www.medrxiv.org (secure)]

[link to www.medrxiv.org (secure)]
 Quoting: Close_with&destroy


If that is true, we are screwed beyond imagination and everything the OP has written so far has been too optimistic.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78238428


THE OP HAS STATED NUMEROUS TIMES THAT HIS MODEL IS OPTIMISTIC/CONSERVATIVE.

HEY OP,

HOW MUCH CLOSER ARE WE TO DOOMSDAY?

THANKS FOR YOUR FINE WORK!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78309681


As I said, this week is critical.

Things can go both ways : we're utterly fucked, or we are slightly fucked.


Until this week ends, I cannot say with some degree of certainty ,where the world is heading.


Atm, I am 50/50 on SHTF, but things do not look good.


We'll have to wait and see.

Last Edited by deplorable recollector on 02/12/2020 03:22 PM
Anonymous Coward
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02/12/2020 03:32 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
HEY OP,

CDC confirms their test kits don't work

PLEASE SCROLL DOWN 16 POSTS FOR THE LINK:

Thread: Covid-19/ UPDATE>PAGE 1 /ITALY 400!! P4036/+5 GERMAN P4038/ 1ST GEORGIA P4041/ 1ST PAK P4048/ 1ST NORWAY +2 VIRGINIA ? P4053/TRUMP SPEECH 6.00PM (Page 2801)
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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02/12/2020 03:47 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78309681


We already knew that like 4 days ago.


Japan said that tests are like 25% reliable...which is basically saying "use 6 fucking tests, if you want a conclusive result".


This is why my model have such big numbers : this is a new virus, tests are completely unreliable, and a ton of false negatives will be released in the society.


Main reason why I said that if by Feb.5th ALL traveling is not stopped, this pandemic will be catastrophic.

Last Edited by deplorable recollector on 02/12/2020 04:34 PM
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02/12/2020 06:47 PM

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
OP, that would be an interesting point to add to the green section on Pg 1.

1. Test kits are in limited supply;

2. Test kits are only 25% reliable;

3. Governments and MSM are hiding the real numbers.

.
“Mental slavery is the worst form of slavery.
It gives you the illusion of freedom,
makes you trust, love, and defend your oppressor,
while making an enemy of those
who are trying to free you or open your eyes.”
-Fiyah

“None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free.”
-Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

“Freedom of Speech really means never saying anything that The System doesn’t like.
Those who conform...believe they have a freedom that doesn’t actually exist. Freedom to conform is not freedom.”
-David Icke
TIO JUAN

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02/12/2020 07:11 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
OP, did you watch WHO press conference this morning ??
Try to watch the last 20 minutes , Secretary and officials looked very nervous answering questions and avoiding any question about China' reliable data.
Interesting or time to panic.
UNCLE JOHN
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02/12/2020 07:24 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
242 new deaths in Hubei today...!!!!
JibaroBoricua

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02/12/2020 08:19 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Hi GLP, from Puerto Rico, Environmental engineer, im with the Op, insides, the New Jersey cruise ship docked in Old San Juan in January 27 or 28, by that time a suicidio (suicide) happend in another cruise ship, its weird!
[link to www.wtsp.com (secure)]

That guy jump to his death!

In my case I have been through Chinkunkunya, Zika,Dengue and a couple of influenza, never vaccine, just my inmmune system, plus 5 month without power by hurricane Irma and maria!
Friends, its hard, i survive with a gas stove,i know permaculture,and construction, u need to learn many aspects of surviving, i have 4 dogs,my mother 5,AND we survive, each meal cut it by half, water by half!
Alcaline your body,i can say so much!!

This post is the best!

At this moment i started a small business selling microgreens to the restaurants in the turist area, and Im freaking!
Our airport is with th CDC, plus we have from VA hospital the best treatment for Ébola! Look for it.
Plus Puerto Rico produces a lot of medicines for the USa!
And Puerto Rico is called PuertoUtopia for criptocurrencies!plus act 20/22 for not reporting irs!
Anonymous Coward
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02/12/2020 08:26 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
242 new deaths in Hubei today...!!!!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78420351


Yes, and more 15,104 cases reported "officialy" by China.

WE ARE FUCKED!
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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02/12/2020 08:32 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
242 new deaths in Hubei today...!!!!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78420351


Yes, and more 15,104 cases reported "officialy" by China.

WE ARE FUCKED!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78238428


As I said Monday, this week is critical.


I also said watch the news, this week will be big.


Sadly, there will be more bad news by Sunday...





GLP