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CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281

 
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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01/28/2020 03:44 PM
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OP, if you may. What are your qualifications to publish this model outcome?

I want to use your data. More about the author will help a lot.

Please, thank you!
 Quoting: Nonentity



I am the author of the model.As for qualifications, they are irrelevant. The model is based on people who are (or should be) highly qualified.

It is nothing but a mathematical model, that used 4 different patterns, based on Spanish Flu, a Harvard epidemiologist R0 of 2.6, the Chinese official numbers and a theoretical weaponized virus.


All patterns but the one from Harvard failed to deliver, showing major errors the moment the cases outside China started to be announced.

The Harvard model also failed, but the error was minimal. Hence, I modified the Harvard model based on a R0 of 2.6 and 85% (or 0.8 modifier) infection chance, to a staggering R0 of 2.2, 2.4 and 2.6 with 0.7 and 0.8, considering the incipient stage of the pandemic outside China.

The R0 is going to increase from 2.2 to 2.6 and the modifier from 0.7 to 0.8 very quickly, in the next 5 days (by Feb 3rd.), because no measures to stop the virus spread are being taken.

The R0 is going to jump to 3 and above after Feb. 6th., again, because no measures are in place to stop the epidemic.
MKPitBull

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01/28/2020 03:44 PM

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Its not really going to harm the economy that much, if by the time we figure out the vaccine, (6months?) after the quarantines are lifted there will be mass shopping sprees and demand for all types of goods, it will allow the economy to rebound, the central banks will have to absorb the depression in the GDPs and we pay it back through increased tax and austerity.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78403405


Lol, stay outta work in Quarantine for six months and see where you are on so called shopping sprees. Fuck that’s funny
"Come get some"
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 03:45 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
Superbowl parties the 2cd gonna throw this into high gear n usa
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 03:48 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
For the curious ones that are anxiously waiting the new numbers from China :


The total number of confirmed cases that will be reported next by the Chinese government will be 8,099, give it a 1-2% error.

The REAL and total number of the infected people (asymptomatic and confirmed) in China is roughly 700,000 people, most of them in the 1-2 day incubation period.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Assuming by today there are 700,000 infected in China, and the outbreak began the first week of December, the daily multiplier would be 1.261 or a monthly multiplier of 1,050.

That being said, SARS had a RO of 2.4 in China, and dropped to approximately 0.7 in the developed world.

If 2019-nCoV has a RO of 3.8 in China, the RO in the 1st World should be around 1.11 - assuming the effect of distance, cleanliness, and protective measures affect nCoV as they did with SARS.

A RO of 1.11 is a monthly multiplier of 1.5X infected.
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 03:48 PM
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This is doomy. Can they smell corpses?
[link to mobile.twitter.com (secure)]
RomanianGuy

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01/28/2020 03:48 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
From February 16th, multiple health systems across the world will collapse.Hospitals will be overcrowded and unable to test and treat most of the patients.The social fabric will completely collapse, and the governments, if they delayed the quarantines, will have no other choice but to lock-down hundreds of millions of people in major and large to medium cities, with hundreds of millions more self-isolating in smaller cities, towns and villages.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


The social fabric is not that weak.

Even if your bleak scenario is accurate, and no vaccine is discovered, societies will shrink and adapt.

Government will restrict the media.

Martial law will be widespread.

Health systems won't collapse because people with flu will no longer be allowed to swarm hospitals.
Doom mood!
Time to Dance Again:
Thread: Totentanz
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 03:50 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
Excellent, albeit troubling post OP.

I hope all the "nothing burger" people see this.

clappa
MKPitBull

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01/28/2020 03:50 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
I have a question if anyone might know.

Lots of people live paycheck to paycheck in low end jobs, struggling to pay bills and rent.

In the USA if the virus gets so bad that work places close and society begins to collapse.

Does the USA government step up to stop things like utility bills if no one can go to work?

We would all still need water to flush toilets, right?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76538212


Lol, the US government doesn’t give a shit about you. Your a slave that can be replaced after the fuckery. Best be prepared on your own to survive.
"Come get some"
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 03:51 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
FULL INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL MUST STOP BY FEB.3RD.
FULL LOCAL TRAVEL IN AFFECTED COUNTRIES MUST STOP BY FEB. 5TH.


If the above measures are not taking place, the pandemic will be catastrophic.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Agree wholeheartedly. I don't have the knowledge to extrapolate the numbers, but I fully believe there's a small window before this is full blown if nothing is done to close borders.

I'm traveling in SoCal right now and last week I was considering extending my trip. After thinking it through, I realized it's better to leave as planned in 2 days before there's the potential of air traffic, especially international, being grounded. Told a few friends and they think I'm overestimating and being dramatic.

I think in less than one month this will be either under control or a pandemic.
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 03:52 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
you and I both know the RO number of 2.6 is bullpucky
 Quoting: Jake


For China and South East Asia it is.

By my model is adjusted for US, EU, Japan, SK, Australia, NZ and other developed countries to 2.2 in the incipient phase to 2.6 in the mid stage of the pandemic.

For South East Asia, the R0 is 2.6 in the incipient stage, and 3 in the mid stage of the pandemic.


After that, it won't matter how big the R0 is, the society will be collapsed anyway, and nobody will give a fuck about it.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


true on the it wont matter part.

we are screwed I can feel it in my bones.
 Quoting: Jake


Jake, NO we are NOT screwed. Come on now.....put ON your WARRIOR SPIRIT......we CAN protect ourselves against this.
You know the routine.....get your preps updated NOW. After your preps are updated & you have more than ample food stored & natural remedies etc., then stay the heck away from going out anywhere.
I've just made a new batch of the Winter Tonic (hot, hot, hot) & I'm busy cooking meals for my freezer, so I have meals already prepared. I also purchased some N95 masks.
Tip: I plan on covering one of the masks with tin-foil, & taping it down with clear Duct tape. Then I will wear a surgical mask over top of that, if I have to go out in public.
We can do this Jake & friends.
 Quoting: simplify


Who has the money to just stock on what a years worth of supplies for a family of 4 on avg. You are looking at 10k easy then as if stocking up is going to help pay the bills while everything is still due until the complete collapse which may take a year. So in the meantime folks out trying to make a living are getting infected, what good does stocking up do? hrmmmmm we are fooked the end.
VQC

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01/28/2020 03:52 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
Thanks for making this thread.
Exponentials...
...I was all prepped for working from home. Got my six month stash of food and other stuff.
Now due to be in Paris from Tuesday 4th to Thursday 6th Feb. Yikes.
Chaos is a ladder...only The Climb is real.
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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01/28/2020 03:55 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
UPDATE :

Current number of confirmed cases outside China mainland :

58 + 7 in Taiwan. 65 in total.

Model predicted number by January 29th, 00:00 GMT :

67-69.



Current time : January 28th, 20:55 GMT.

Last Edited by deplorable recollector on 01/28/2020 05:35 PM
MKPitBull

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01/28/2020 03:55 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
FULL INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL MUST STOP BY FEB.3RD.
FULL LOCAL TRAVEL IN AFFECTED COUNTRIES MUST STOP BY FEB. 5TH.


If the above measures are not taking place, the pandemic will be catastrophic.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Agree wholeheartedly. I don't have the knowledge to extrapolate the numbers, but I fully believe there's a small window before this is full blown if nothing is done to close borders.

I'm traveling in SoCal right now and last week I was considering extending my trip. After thinking it through, I realized it's better to leave as planned in 2 days before there's the potential of air traffic, especially international, being grounded. Told a few friends and they think I'm overestimating and being dramatic.

I think in less than one month this will be either under control or a pandemic.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78270494


Two weeks this will be a global pandemic unless air travel is restricted in the next few days. It probably won’t be until later next week. Tptb motives, well you surmise.
"Come get some"
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 03:57 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
Superbowl parties the 2cd gonna throw this into high gear n usa
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 18491119


Yep.
SilverCyprus

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01/28/2020 03:57 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
Who has the money to just stock on what a years worth of supplies for a family of 4 on avg. You are looking at 10k easy then as if stocking up is going to help pay the bills while everything is still due until the complete collapse which may take a year. So in the meantime folks out trying to make a living are getting infected, what good does stocking up do? hrmmmmm we are fooked the end.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78092495


Plant a garden instead.
SWOOPSTER

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01/28/2020 04:00 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
Who has the money to just stock on what a years worth of supplies for a family of 4 on avg. You are looking at 10k easy then as if stocking up is going to help pay the bills while everything is still due until the complete collapse which may take a year. So in the meantime folks out trying to make a living are getting infected, what good does stocking up do? hrmmmmm we are fooked the end.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78092495


Plant a garden instead.
 Quoting: SilverCyprus


hesright
~SWOOP~
Deplorable Revbo™
Catastrophizer

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01/28/2020 04:00 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
Excellent. Thanks for posting, DR.
"Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth." -Mike Tyson
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 04:01 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
OP, if you may. What are your qualifications to publish this model outcome?

I want to use your data. More about the author will help a lot.

Please, thank you!
 Quoting: Nonentity



I am the author of the model.As for qualifications, they are irrelevant. The model is based on people who are (or should be) highly qualified.

It is nothing but a mathematical model, that used 4 different patterns, based on Spanish Flu, a Harvard epidemiologist R0 of 2.6, the Chinese official numbers and a theoretical weaponized virus.


All patterns but the one from Harvard failed to deliver, showing major errors the moment the cases outside China started to be announced.

The Harvard model also failed, but the error was minimal. Hence, I modified the Harvard model based on a R0 of 2.6 and 85% (or 0.8 modifier) infection chance, to a staggering R0 of 2.2, 2.4 and 2.6 with 0.7 and 0.8, considering the incipient stage of the pandemic outside China.

The R0 is going to increase from 2.2 to 2.6 and the modifier from 0.7 to 0.8 very quickly, in the next 5 days (by Feb 3rd.), because no measures to stop the virus spread are being taken.

The R0 is going to jump to 3 and above after Feb. 6th., again, because no measures are in place to stop the epidemic.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Translation: "My qualifications include access to a computer and a higher IQ than the average GLP'er's."
MKPitBull

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01/28/2020 04:03 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
...


For China and South East Asia it is.

By my model is adjusted for US, EU, Japan, SK, Australia, NZ and other developed countries to 2.2 in the incipient phase to 2.6 in the mid stage of the pandemic.

For South East Asia, the R0 is 2.6 in the incipient stage, and 3 in the mid stage of the pandemic.


After that, it won't matter how big the R0 is, the society will be collapsed anyway, and nobody will give a fuck about it.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


true on the it wont matter part.

we are screwed I can feel it in my bones.
 Quoting: Jake


Jake, NO we are NOT screwed. Come on now.....put ON your WARRIOR SPIRIT......we CAN protect ourselves against this.
You know the routine.....get your preps updated NOW. After your preps are updated & you have more than ample food stored & natural remedies etc., then stay the heck away from going out anywhere.
I've just made a new batch of the Winter Tonic (hot, hot, hot) & I'm busy cooking meals for my freezer, so I have meals already prepared. I also purchased some N95 masks.
Tip: I plan on covering one of the masks with tin-foil, & taping it down with clear Duct tape. Then I will wear a surgical mask over top of that, if I have to go out in public.
We can do this Jake & friends.
 Quoting: simplify


Who has the money to just stock on what a years worth of supplies for a family of 4 on avg. You are looking at 10k easy then as if stocking up is going to help pay the bills while everything is still due until the complete collapse which may take a year. So in the meantime folks out trying to make a living are getting infected, what good does stocking up do? hrmmmmm we are fooked the end.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78092495


Shoulda planned ahead. Two years I could bug in and not need a damn thing without leaving my homestead. Power or not. Longer if needed
"Come get some"
Sean Kaven
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01/28/2020 04:04 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
I think that some of your numbers are high but why quarrel? Even if I skews them conservatively, your model is sound. In the conservative model, maybe we buy ourselves an extra week.

There is no doubt as to what is coming.
InterMezzo

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01/28/2020 04:04 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
Thanks for sharing this DR! I hope people realize themselves at which accelerating speed this can develop in just a few weeks.

What might seem as quite low numbers first, can exponentially explode when we are two to four weeks in this outbreak.

Great work! hf
captain
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 04:05 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
God knows the date of my death, so I'm not worrying about it!
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 04:05 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
Sub to this Dr. GLPer material
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 04:09 PM
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Sometimes I feel like I should play a video game with doom instead of hoping it happens in real life.

Ahh, who am I kidding..
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 04:10 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
FULL INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL MUST STOP BY FEB.3RD.
FULL LOCAL TRAVEL IN AFFECTED COUNTRIES MUST STOP BY FEB. 5TH.


If the above measures are not taking place, the pandemic will be catastrophic.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Agree wholeheartedly. I don't have the knowledge to extrapolate the numbers, but I fully believe there's a small window before this is full blown if nothing is done to close borders.

I'm traveling in SoCal right now and last week I was considering extending my trip. After thinking it through, I realized it's better to leave as planned in 2 days before there's the potential of air traffic, especially international, being grounded. Told a few friends and they think I'm overestimating and being dramatic.

I think in less than one month this will be either under control or a pandemic.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78270494


Two weeks this will be a global pandemic unless air travel is restricted in the next few days. It probably won’t be until later next week. Tptb motives, well you surmise.
 Quoting: MKPitBull


Crossing my fingers borders stay open through Friday. I'm going home to South America and don't want to get stuck here!
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 04:10 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
Quarantining all cities etc would tank the economy and make things worse.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73848670



Right. So either way we're fucked...

I'm going to grab some stuff this weekend.... I wasn't worried during SARS or any of that shit, but this really bothers me.
 Quoting: HE-B-GB


SARS was also caused by a coronavius , the term is used today but defines a wide spectrum of viruses belonging to same family.
"Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (SARS-CoV, SARSr-CoV) is the virus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS).[2] On April 16, 2003, following the outbreak of SARS in Asia and secondary cases elsewhere in the world, the World Health Organization (WHO) issued a press release stating that the coronavirus identified by a number of laboratories

.........
The SARS coronavirus is a positive and single stranded RNA virus belonging to a family of enveloped coronaviruses.
.........
[link to en.wikipedia.org (secure)]
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 04:12 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
Sub to this Dr. GLPer material

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78404885


Wrong vid. Sorry
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 04:15 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
From the beginning, I want to specify that my model is only for the infection rate. Not death rate, and not confirmed cases by the authorities and governments. It is a mathematical model, based on 4 separate patterns :

-Chinese official number
-The commonly accepted R0 of 2.6 among many epidemiologists
-The Spanish Flu R0 of 1.8
-The weaponized virus R0 > 5

Starting from January 16th, all the patterns, except the one based on an Ro of 2.6 failed to apply.

The R0 = 2.6 pattern still stands, for China. However, considering that China is still allowing free travel among all provinces except Tibet (least populated and most isolated one) and Hubei (the epicenter of the pandemic), the R0 will jump over 3 by Sunday, February 2nd.

For the developed countries, with better hygiene, long history of flu (herd immunization) and high quality medical system, the R0 was skewed (for the time being) to 2.2.

If the developed countries will not stop ALL travel by Sunday, Feb. 2nd, the R0 will jump to 2.6.


Everyone can do their own math, applying an R0 = 2.2, for the develop countries, 2.4 for Asian countries and 2.6 for China, while adjusting the index for infection spread chance to 0.7-0.8.
As an example 10 x 2.2 x 0.7, for developed countries and 10 x 2.2 x 0.8 for SE Asia, South and Central America and Africa.

For those that don't want to do that, here is the infection spread, worldwide (except China mainland), starting with today, January 28th, with all the numbers adjusted :


January 28th 00:00 GMT :
Between 3,000 and 4,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 37-38 cases.

January 29th, 00:00 GMT :
Between 5,200 and 7,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 67-69 cases.

January 30th, 00:00 GMT : Between 8,000 and 12,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 103-106 cases.

January 31st, 00:00 GMT : 12,300 - 20,100 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 158 - 168 cases.

February 1st, 00:00 GMT : 18,900 - 30,900 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 243 - 258

February 2nd, 00:00 GMT : 29,100 - 47,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 374 - 397.

If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate.These are the numbers :

February 3rd, 00:00 GMT : 48,000 - 78,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 617 - 655

February 4th, 00:00 GMT : 79,200 - 128,700 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 1,018 - 1,080.

If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate.These are the numbers :

February 5th, 00:00 GMT : 139,000 - 226,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 1,790 - 1,900.


From this date on, the pandemic no longer can be contained, without full quarantine, at least for all major cities across the world. This will come with total economic collapse and the panic that will be widespread.

The huge difference between the number of infected in my model, is because most populated countries are also underdeveloped, and the virus will affect much more people in India and SE Asia.

If full or at last partial quarantine is not implemented by February 5th, in major cities across the world, the pandemic will spread as follow (adjusted for higher R0 and higher index for infection spread chance), with the mention that the numbers will be the median ones :

Feb 6th :345,000 infected with 3,600 presenting symptoms
Feb 7th :690,000 infected with 7,500 presenting symptoms
Feb 8th : 1,435,000 / 15,600
Feb 9th : 2,980,000 / 27,456
Feb 10th: 6,240,000 / 57,100
Feb 11th: 12,979,000 / 118,100
Feb 12th: 27,990,000 / 245,600
Feb 13th: 58,220,000 / 509,600
Feb 14th:121,970,000 /1,060,000
Feb 15th:253,697,000 /2,204,800

From February 16th, multiple health systems across the world will collapse.Hospitals will be overcrowded and unable to test and treat most of the patients.The social fabric will completely collapse, and the governments, if they delayed the quarantines, will have no other choice but to lock-down hundreds of millions of people in major and large to medium cities, with hundreds of millions more self-isolating in smaller cities, towns and villages.

There might be slight variations in my model, if some countries implement some travel restrictions here and there, some quarantines here and there...but anything except total quarantine is not going to work, but only delay the infection by mere DAYS.


I am going to end with what matters the most, for my model to HOPEFULLY fail :

FULL INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL MUST STOP BY FEB.3RD.
FULL LOCAL TRAVEL IN AFFECTED COUNTRIES MUST STOP BY FEB. 5TH.


If the above measures are not taking place, the pandemic will be catastrophic.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Almost every single model from actual docs/agencies refutes yours.
deplorable recollector  (OP)

User ID: 73110508
Romania
01/28/2020 04:17 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
From the beginning, I want to specify that my model is only for the infection rate. Not death rate, and not confirmed cases by the authorities and governments. It is a mathematical model, based on 4 separate patterns :

-Chinese official number
-The commonly accepted R0 of 2.6 among many epidemiologists
-The Spanish Flu R0 of 1.8
-The weaponized virus R0 > 5

Starting from January 16th, all the patterns, except the one based on an Ro of 2.6 failed to apply.

The R0 = 2.6 pattern still stands, for China. However, considering that China is still allowing free travel among all provinces except Tibet (least populated and most isolated one) and Hubei (the epicenter of the pandemic), the R0 will jump over 3 by Sunday, February 2nd.

For the developed countries, with better hygiene, long history of flu (herd immunization) and high quality medical system, the R0 was skewed (for the time being) to 2.2.

If the developed countries will not stop ALL travel by Sunday, Feb. 2nd, the R0 will jump to 2.6.


Everyone can do their own math, applying an R0 = 2.2, for the develop countries, 2.4 for Asian countries and 2.6 for China, while adjusting the index for infection spread chance to 0.7-0.8.
As an example 10 x 2.2 x 0.7, for developed countries and 10 x 2.2 x 0.8 for SE Asia, South and Central America and Africa.

For those that don't want to do that, here is the infection spread, worldwide (except China mainland), starting with today, January 28th, with all the numbers adjusted :


January 28th 00:00 GMT :
Between 3,000 and 4,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 37-38 cases.

January 29th, 00:00 GMT :
Between 5,200 and 7,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 67-69 cases.

January 30th, 00:00 GMT : Between 8,000 and 12,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 103-106 cases.

January 31st, 00:00 GMT : 12,300 - 20,100 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 158 - 168 cases.

February 1st, 00:00 GMT : 18,900 - 30,900 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 243 - 258

February 2nd, 00:00 GMT : 29,100 - 47,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 374 - 397.

If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate.These are the numbers :

February 3rd, 00:00 GMT : 48,000 - 78,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 617 - 655

February 4th, 00:00 GMT : 79,200 - 128,700 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 1,018 - 1,080.

If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate.These are the numbers :

February 5th, 00:00 GMT : 139,000 - 226,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 1,790 - 1,900.


From this date on, the pandemic no longer can be contained, without full quarantine, at least for all major cities across the world. This will come with total economic collapse and the panic that will be widespread.

The huge difference between the number of infected in my model, is because most populated countries are also underdeveloped, and the virus will affect much more people in India and SE Asia.

If full or at last partial quarantine is not implemented by February 5th, in major cities across the world, the pandemic will spread as follow (adjusted for higher R0 and higher index for infection spread chance), with the mention that the numbers will be the median ones :

Feb 6th :345,000 infected with 3,600 presenting symptoms
Feb 7th :690,000 infected with 7,500 presenting symptoms
Feb 8th : 1,435,000 / 15,600
Feb 9th : 2,980,000 / 27,456
Feb 10th: 6,240,000 / 57,100
Feb 11th: 12,979,000 / 118,100
Feb 12th: 27,990,000 / 245,600
Feb 13th: 58,220,000 / 509,600
Feb 14th:121,970,000 /1,060,000
Feb 15th:253,697,000 /2,204,800

From February 16th, multiple health systems across the world will collapse.Hospitals will be overcrowded and unable to test and treat most of the patients.The social fabric will completely collapse, and the governments, if they delayed the quarantines, will have no other choice but to lock-down hundreds of millions of people in major and large to medium cities, with hundreds of millions more self-isolating in smaller cities, towns and villages.

There might be slight variations in my model, if some countries implement some travel restrictions here and there, some quarantines here and there...but anything except total quarantine is not going to work, but only delay the infection by mere DAYS.


I am going to end with what matters the most, for my model to HOPEFULLY fail :

FULL INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL MUST STOP BY FEB.3RD.
FULL LOCAL TRAVEL IN AFFECTED COUNTRIES MUST STOP BY FEB. 5TH.


If the above measures are not taking place, the pandemic will be catastrophic.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Almost every single model from actual docs/agencies refutes yours.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76469913


Don't want to be cocky or anything...but that means those models are wrong.

Simply because they are made and approved by...guess who?

The government.
IF
User ID: 73314314
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01/28/2020 04:17 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
From the beginning, I want to specify that my model is only for the infection rate. Not death rate, and not confirmed cases by the authorities and governments. It is a mathematical model, based on 4 separate patterns :

-Chinese official number
-The commonly accepted R0 of 2.6 among many epidemiologists
-The Spanish Flu R0 of 1.8
-The weaponized virus R0 > 5

Starting from January 16th, all the patterns, except the one based on an Ro of 2.6 failed to apply.

The R0 = 2.6 pattern still stands, for China. However, considering that China is still allowing free travel among all provinces except Tibet (least populated and most isolated one) and Hubei (the epicenter of the pandemic), the R0 will jump over 3 by Sunday, February 2nd.

For the developed countries, with better hygiene, long history of flu (herd immunization) and high quality medical system, the R0 was skewed (for the time being) to 2.2.

If the developed countries will not stop ALL travel by Sunday, Feb. 2nd, the R0 will jump to 2.6.


Everyone can do their own math, applying an R0 = 2.2, for the develop countries, 2.4 for Asian countries and 2.6 for China, while adjusting the index for infection spread chance to 0.7-0.8.
As an example 10 x 2.2 x 0.7, for developed countries and 10 x 2.2 x 0.8 for SE Asia, South and Central America and Africa.

For those that don't want to do that, here is the infection spread, worldwide (except China mainland), starting with today, January 28th, with all the numbers adjusted :


January 28th 00:00 GMT :
Between 3,000 and 4,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 37-38 cases.

January 29th, 00:00 GMT :
Between 5,200 and 7,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 67-69 cases.

January 30th, 00:00 GMT : Between 8,000 and 12,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 103-106 cases.

January 31st, 00:00 GMT : 12,300 - 20,100 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 158 - 168 cases.

February 1st, 00:00 GMT : 18,900 - 30,900 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 243 - 258

February 2nd, 00:00 GMT : 29,100 - 47,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 374 - 397.

If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate.These are the numbers :

February 3rd, 00:00 GMT : 48,000 - 78,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 617 - 655

February 4th, 00:00 GMT : 79,200 - 128,700 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 1,018 - 1,080.

If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate.These are the numbers :

February 5th, 00:00 GMT : 139,000 - 226,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 1,790 - 1,900.


From this date on, the pandemic no longer can be contained, without full quarantine, at least for all major cities across the world. This will come with total economic collapse and the panic that will be widespread.

The huge difference between the number of infected in my model, is because most populated countries are also underdeveloped, and the virus will affect much more people in India and SE Asia.

If full or at last partial quarantine is not implemented by February 5th, in major cities across the world, the pandemic will spread as follow (adjusted for higher R0 and higher index for infection spread chance), with the mention that the numbers will be the median ones :

Feb 6th :345,000 infected with 3,600 presenting symptoms
Feb 7th :690,000 infected with 7,500 presenting symptoms
Feb 8th : 1,435,000 / 15,600
Feb 9th : 2,980,000 / 27,456
Feb 10th: 6,240,000 / 57,100
Feb 11th: 12,979,000 / 118,100
Feb 12th: 27,990,000 / 245,600
Feb 13th: 58,220,000 / 509,600
Feb 14th:121,970,000 /1,060,000
Feb 15th:253,697,000 /2,204,800

From February 16th, multiple health systems across the world will collapse.Hospitals will be overcrowded and unable to test and treat most of the patients.The social fabric will completely collapse, and the governments, if they delayed the quarantines, will have no other choice but to lock-down hundreds of millions of people in major and large to medium cities, with hundreds of millions more self-isolating in smaller cities, towns and villages.

There might be slight variations in my model, if some countries implement some travel restrictions here and there, some quarantines here and there...but anything except total quarantine is not going to work, but only delay the infection by mere DAYS.


I am going to end with what matters the most, for my model to HOPEFULLY fail :

FULL INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL MUST STOP BY FEB.3RD.
FULL LOCAL TRAVEL IN AFFECTED COUNTRIES MUST STOP BY FEB. 5TH.


If the above measures are not taking place, the pandemic will be catastrophic.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector



WOW! Thank you for your post. At last someone with numbers to understand the ramifications. hf





GLP