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LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87

 
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2020 08:07 AM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
This link in French says that only 6 labs / countries can test the coronavirus in Africa for 1.2 billion people in that continent with one million chineses in overcrowded areas:

[link to www.slate.fr]

But one expects this number to be 30 soon (but when?).

This article also says that the postal service of South Africa doesn't accept parcels from China anymore!!!!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74996941


I picked up my parcels from Wish two days ago....so not sure where that news comes from
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78472576


Death rates may be correct....especially if thing mutates slightly, a person loses their immunity and then get reinfected.
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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02/13/2020 08:12 AM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Thursday, February 13th, 15:00 GMT :

-8 new cases in Singapore.
-4 new cases in Japan, (NOT on the cruise ship), one of the a fatality. One of the Japan cases today is a doctor.
-10,000 people commune locked-down in Vietnam.


The day is not over yet...the week is not over yet.


Based on my model, this week is critical.


Stay close, there will be more news before this day and week is over.




As I previously stated, I expect Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan to be the first after China, and this week is very important in determining where this pandemic is going.


Again, like like said yesterday, things are NOT looking good.

Last Edited by deplorable recollector on 02/13/2020 08:14 AM
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2020 08:44 AM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
This link in French says that only 6 labs / countries can test the coronavirus in Africa for 1.2 billion people in that continent with one million chineses in overcrowded areas:

[link to www.slate.fr]

But one expects this number to be 30 soon (but when?).

This article also says that the postal service of South Africa doesn't accept parcels from China anymore!!!!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74996941


I picked up my parcels from Wish two days ago....so not sure where that news comes from
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78472576


Is 'Wish' the SA state postal service? Or maybe the decision is more recent than two days ago?
DeplorableDoomsdayGuy​®

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02/13/2020 08:44 AM

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
OP, your projection isn’t accurate because the R0 value is the average number of people that a carrier will infect during the entire time they are contagious...it is not how many people they infect every 24 hrs.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 71242045



Would be great if OP would address this comment. Basically he is saying the R0 value is spread over a period of time that is much longer than 24 hours.

You can look at it like a bank account interest rate. Not 2% daily, but 2% over a much longer period - yet the 2% figure is correct.

Is the OP compounding this infection rate daily to arrive at the model's figures?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78468629

The R0 is an average, you can use that figure for what ever time frame you want, as long as you use that figure consistently. There are a few videos on YouTube that explain how to come up with this number yourself.
Single acts of tyranny may be ascribed to the accidental opinion of a day; but a series of oppressions, begun at a distinguished period, and pursued unalterably through every change of ministers, too plainly prove a deliberate, systematical plan of reducing us to slavery.
Rights of British America, 1774, Thomas Jefferson
IPgeolocater is broken, cant tell the difference between the US & Canada. 100% American
kpow

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
The Jaws Virus. And the goverments are just like the City Council and Mayor in the movie.
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02/13/2020 08:52 AM

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Thursday, February 13th, 15:00 GMT :

-8 new cases in Singapore.
-4 new cases in Japan, (NOT on the cruise ship), one of the a fatality. One of the Japan cases today is a doctor.
-10,000 people commune locked-down in Vietnam.


The day is not over yet...the week is not over yet.


Based on my model, this week is critical.


Stay close, there will be more news before this day and week is over.




As I previously stated, I expect Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan to be the first after China, and this week is very important in determining where this pandemic is going.


Again, like like said yesterday, things are NOT looking good.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


The thing is with such a long incubation period you're not seeing where it is going, you're seeing where it's been. Kinda of like light from the sun. When you look at the sun you're not seeing the sun it's present condition, you're looking at sunlight that is 8 minutes in the past, because that's how long it takes for light to get from there to here. So these "new" infections could have actually occurred two weeks ago, but we're just now seeing it.
Single acts of tyranny may be ascribed to the accidental opinion of a day; but a series of oppressions, begun at a distinguished period, and pursued unalterably through every change of ministers, too plainly prove a deliberate, systematical plan of reducing us to slavery.
Rights of British America, 1774, Thomas Jefferson
IPgeolocater is broken, cant tell the difference between the US & Canada. 100% American
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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02/13/2020 09:01 AM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Thursday, February 13th, 15:00 GMT :

-8 new cases in Singapore.
-4 new cases in Japan, (NOT on the cruise ship), one of the a fatality. One of the Japan cases today is a doctor.
-10,000 people commune locked-down in Vietnam.


The day is not over yet...the week is not over yet.


Based on my model, this week is critical.


Stay close, there will be more news before this day and week is over.




As I previously stated, I expect Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan to be the first after China, and this week is very important in determining where this pandemic is going.


Again, like like said yesterday, things are NOT looking good.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


The thing is with such a long incubation period you're not seeing where it is going, you're seeing where it's been. Kinda of like light from the sun. When you look at the sun you're not seeing the sun it's present condition, you're looking at sunlight that is 8 minutes in the past, because that's how long it takes for light to get from there to here. So these "new" infections could have actually occurred two weeks ago, but we're just now seeing it.
 Quoting: DeplorableDoomsdayGuy®


Sure, but you can predict where is going.

I hope you understand this.
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
BREAKING NEWS - WARTIME STATUS (MARTIAL LAW) DECLARED FOR THE CITY OF #BEIJING

[link to twitter.com (secure)]


And the week is not over...

Last Edited by deplorable recollector on 02/13/2020 09:16 AM
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02/13/2020 09:43 AM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
BREAKING NEWS - WARTIME STATUS (MARTIAL LAW) DECLARED FOR THE CITY OF #BEIJING

[link to twitter.com (secure)]


And the week is not over...
 Quoting: deplorable recollector

doomalert5
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02/13/2020 10:26 AM

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Suggestion to OP

Would be a good idea to edit your thread title to include the page number of latest update before posting it.
I don't entertain trolls.

Me Chinese
Me play joke
Me put bioweapon in your coke
King of Karaoke

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Thursday, February 13th, 15:00 GMT :

-8 new cases in Singapore.
-4 new cases in Japan, (NOT on the cruise ship), one of the a fatality. One of the Japan cases today is a doctor.
-10,000 people commune locked-down in Vietnam.


The day is not over yet...the week is not over yet.


Based on my model, this week is critical.


Stay close, there will be more news before this day and week is over.




As I previously stated, I expect Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan to be the first after China, and this week is very important in determining where this pandemic is going.


Again, like like said yesterday, things are NOT looking good.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


More critical is how transparent and effective their health care systems are. The sars-cov2 virus may spread, but traditionally fatality is inverse to Ro.

Until we see confirmed causes of death outside China, I'm not concerned until anyone but China starts evaluating cases the way they should be.
I'm a driver, I'm a winner. Things are going to change, I can feel it.
IdeaMan1624

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02/13/2020 11:02 AM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Knock, Knock Here I Am – One of the individuals quarantined at Lackland Air Force Base (San Antonio, Texas) is confirmed CoV infected. I am in Houston Texas right down the street from San Antonio. As this pandemic (it will be announced today) expands throughout the globe, global panic will soon arrive too. I have to say I am still optimistic about the personal health outcome at least here in the USA. The Economy is a much different story (my future post on this is coming). Check out this link to the London super spreader [link to nypost.com (secure)] This is A reason why I am still optimistic about the overall health of certain ethnic individuals that become infected with this virus. The very best thing anyone of us can do for ourselves and family right at this point is - get as healthy now as possible and immediately address any slight sickness. This virus situation will only escalate in several arenas – infections of course, markets, others and politics will be in the forefront very soon. We are living in very special times and much much more is to come in the days ahead. Be smart and safe.

Last Edited by IdeaMan1624 on 02/13/2020 12:28 PM
IdeaMan1624
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
[link to www.ccn.com (secure)]


Dow Tumbles as U.S. Warned of 100,000s of Coronavirus Cases

Health experts urged Congress to prepare for widespread coronavirus outbreak in the U.S. which could number in the hundreds of thousands.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) plunged from its record high on Thursday.

Health experts told the Senate to brace for “hundreds of thousands” of U.S. coronavirus cases.

China reported a parabolic rise in deaths and cases after changing its diagnostic methodology.


U.S. coronavirus outbreaks to emerge in ‘two-four weeks’
DeplorableDoomsdayGuy​®

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02/13/2020 11:18 AM

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Suggestion to OP

Would be a good idea to edit your thread title to include the page number of latest update before posting it.
 Quoting: 3927


As per requested : my model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-IMPORTANT UPDATES MAIN POST (updated daily)
Single acts of tyranny may be ascribed to the accidental opinion of a day; but a series of oppressions, begun at a distinguished period, and pursued unalterably through every change of ministers, too plainly prove a deliberate, systematical plan of reducing us to slavery.
Rights of British America, 1774, Thomas Jefferson
IPgeolocater is broken, cant tell the difference between the US & Canada. 100% American
DeplorableDoomsdayGuy​®

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02/13/2020 11:22 AM

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
U.S. coronavirus outbreaks to emerge in ‘two-four weeks’
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74996941


Which means that those infections have already happened, you have to take the incubation period into account. We won't have a definite answer about how fucked we already are for 7-21 days. There very well could be GLPers that are already infected. Dead men walking.
Single acts of tyranny may be ascribed to the accidental opinion of a day; but a series of oppressions, begun at a distinguished period, and pursued unalterably through every change of ministers, too plainly prove a deliberate, systematical plan of reducing us to slavery.
Rights of British America, 1774, Thomas Jefferson
IPgeolocater is broken, cant tell the difference between the US & Canada. 100% American
DeplorableDoomsdayGuy​®

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02/13/2020 11:39 AM

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
OP here's something that could really screw your model up.
[link to www.newsweek.com (secure)]

If bullets start flying and we get pulled in to this shit as well, well then the Pandemic could potentially devastate the population of the world. One of the largest contributors to the spread of the Spanish Flu, which very well could have originated in Kansas, was the doughboys in WWI arriving in Europe.
Single acts of tyranny may be ascribed to the accidental opinion of a day; but a series of oppressions, begun at a distinguished period, and pursued unalterably through every change of ministers, too plainly prove a deliberate, systematical plan of reducing us to slavery.
Rights of British America, 1774, Thomas Jefferson
IPgeolocater is broken, cant tell the difference between the US & Canada. 100% American
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2020 12:04 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Knock, Knock Here I Am – One of individuals quarantined at Lackland Air Force Base (San Antonio, Texas) is confirmed CoV infected. I am in Houston Texas right down the street from San Antonio. As this pandemic (it will be announced today) expands throughout the globe, global panic will soon arrive too. I have to say I am still optimistic about the personal health outcome at least here in the USA. The Economy is a much different story (my future post on this is coming). Check out this link to the London super spreader [link to nypost.com (secure)] This is A reason why I am still optimistic about the overall health of certain ethnic individuals that become infected with this virus. The very best thing anyone of us can do for ourselves and family right at this point is - get as healthy now as possible and immediately address any slight sickness. This virus situation will only escalate in several arenas – infections of course, markets, others and politics will be in the forefront very soon. We are living in very special times and much much more is to come in the days ahead. Be smart and safe.
 Quoting: IdeaMan1624


I WAS STATIONED AT LACKLAND FOR A WHILE. SAN ANTONIO IS HELL! dead3

I'D BE VERY INTERESTED IN YOUR ECONOMIC REPORT. WHEN CAN WE EXPECT TO GET IT?

THANKS! hf
UH
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02/13/2020 12:25 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Thursday, February 13th, 15:00 GMT :

-8 new cases in Singapore.
-4 new cases in Japan, (NOT on the cruise ship), one of the a fatality. One of the Japan cases today is a doctor.
-10,000 people commune locked-down in Vietnam.


The day is not over yet...the week is not over yet.


Based on my model, this week is critical.


Stay close, there will be more news before this day and week is over.




As I previously stated, I expect Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan to be the first after China, and this week is very important in determining where this pandemic is going.


Again, like like said yesterday, things are NOT looking good.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector



INDIA AND AFRIC-UH ARE MY TWO 'FEARS'...!
Epic Beard Guy

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02/13/2020 12:42 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Knock, Knock Here I Am – One of individuals quarantined at Lackland Air Force Base (San Antonio, Texas) is confirmed CoV infected. I am in Houston Texas right down the street from San Antonio. As this pandemic (it will be announced today) expands throughout the globe, global panic will soon arrive too. I have to say I am still optimistic about the personal health outcome at least here in the USA. The Economy is a much different story (my future post on this is coming). Check out this link to the London super spreader [link to nypost.com (secure)] This is A reason why I am still optimistic about the overall health of certain ethnic individuals that become infected with this virus. The very best thing anyone of us can do for ourselves and family right at this point is - get as healthy now as possible and immediately address any slight sickness. This virus situation will only escalate in several arenas – infections of course, markets, others and politics will be in the forefront very soon. We are living in very special times and much much more is to come in the days ahead. Be smart and safe.
 Quoting: IdeaMan1624


I WAS STATIONED AT LACKLAND FOR A WHILE. SAN ANTONIO IS HELL! dead3

I'D BE VERY INTERESTED IN YOUR ECONOMIC REPORT. WHEN CAN WE EXPECT TO GET IT?

THANKS! hf
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78309681


San Antonio is not hell, but it's getting there. The liberal progressive government is destroying that beautiful city. I have a son there right now, and I'm afraid he is in a bad place when the true extent of this infection becomes known. There are just too many people, even though the city is spread out over a large area. Down town is always packed and the homeless are everywhere. One infected person on the River Walk could infect hundreds of others in a matter of an hour or less.
Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.
"America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system, but too early to shoot the bastards." -- Claire Wolfe
IdeaMan1624

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Knock, Knock Here I Am – One of individuals quarantined at Lackland Air Force Base (San Antonio, Texas) is confirmed CoV infected. I am in Houston Texas right down the street from San Antonio. As this pandemic (it will be announced today) expands throughout the globe, global panic will soon arrive too. I have to say I am still optimistic about the personal health outcome at least here in the USA. The Economy is a much different story (my future post on this is coming). Check out this link to the London super spreader [link to nypost.com (secure)] This is A reason why I am still optimistic about the overall health of certain ethnic individuals that become infected with this virus. The very best thing anyone of us can do for ourselves and family right at this point is - get as healthy now as possible and immediately address any slight sickness. This virus situation will only escalate in several arenas – infections of course, markets, others and politics will be in the forefront very soon. We are living in very special times and much much more is to come in the days ahead. Be smart and safe.
 Quoting: IdeaMan1624


I WAS STATIONED AT LACKLAND FOR A WHILE. SAN ANTONIO IS HELL! dead3

I'D BE VERY INTERESTED IN YOUR ECONOMIC REPORT. WHEN CAN WE EXPECT TO GET IT?

THANKS! hf
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78309681


Yes San Antonio can be very hot but this time of year it is quite pleasant. My post on the economy will include two visions, the global economy and the USA economy. As this virus situation escalates and intensifies throughout the globe survival and health is most important. But I also believe opportunities will present themselves that in a very big way will help others too. Expect this economy related post, only in this thread, in a 2-3 days. Holding positions in any market over any weekend is always very risky, especially now.
IdeaMan1624
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Knock, Knock Here I Am – One of individuals quarantined at Lackland Air Force Base (San Antonio, Texas) is confirmed CoV infected. I am in Houston Texas right down the street from San Antonio. As this pandemic (it will be announced today) expands throughout the globe, global panic will soon arrive too. I have to say I am still optimistic about the personal health outcome at least here in the USA. The Economy is a much different story (my future post on this is coming). Check out this link to the London super spreader [link to nypost.com (secure)] This is A reason why I am still optimistic about the overall health of certain ethnic individuals that become infected with this virus. The very best thing anyone of us can do for ourselves and family right at this point is - get as healthy now as possible and immediately address any slight sickness. This virus situation will only escalate in several arenas – infections of course, markets, others and politics will be in the forefront very soon. We are living in very special times and much much more is to come in the days ahead. Be smart and safe.
 Quoting: IdeaMan1624


I WAS STATIONED AT LACKLAND FOR A WHILE. SAN ANTONIO IS HELL! dead3

I'D BE VERY INTERESTED IN YOUR ECONOMIC REPORT. WHEN CAN WE EXPECT TO GET IT?

THANKS! hf
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78309681


Yes San Antonio can be very hot but this time of year it is quite pleasant. My post on the economy will include two visions, the global economy and the USA economy. As this virus situation escalates and intensifies throughout the globe survival and health is most important. But I also believe opportunities will present themselves that in a very big way will help others too. Expect this economy related post, only in this thread, in a 2-3 days. Holding positions in any market over any weekend is always very risky, especially now.
 Quoting: IdeaMan1624


dead3 BEING ON THAT ASPHALT DRILL PAD WAS HELL..MAYBE EVEN HOTTER THAN HELL WHEN THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE WAS AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES. dead3

THE RIVER WALK? IT WAS MORE LIKE A DEATH WALK. SCUM AND CRIME WAS ALL OVER THAT PLACE. IT WAS DIRTIER THAN HELL TOO. SHIT, MAN..AN INDIVIDUAL CAN CATCH THE PLAGUE JUST BREATHING THE AIR AROUND THERE.

I DON'T KNOW WHY THEY'RE LETTING THAT AREA DIE.

I'M LOOKING FORWARD TO YOUR REPORT. WHAT WILL THE TITLE BE SO I CAN LOOK FOR IT?

THANKS A LOT! hf

P.S. FOR THE HATERZ WHO ARE GONNA HATE ON ME FOR WHAT I SAID..IF THEY WERE THERE WHEN I WAS THERE AND SAW WHAT I SAW..THEY'D HAVE SAID THE SAME THINGS THAT I SAID. TRUST ME WHEN I SAY EVEN THE NATIVES WERE PISSED OFF OVER THE SEVERE DECLINE OF THE RIVER WALK AREA.
DeplorableDoomsdayGuy​®

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02/13/2020 01:21 PM

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
Knock, Knock Here I Am – One of individuals quarantined at Lackland Air Force Base (San Antonio, Texas) is confirmed CoV infected. I am in Houston Texas right down the street from San Antonio. As this pandemic (it will be announced today) expands throughout the globe, global panic will soon arrive too. I have to say I am still optimistic about the personal health outcome at least here in the USA. The Economy is a much different story (my future post on this is coming). Check out this link to the London super spreader [link to nypost.com (secure)] This is A reason why I am still optimistic about the overall health of certain ethnic individuals that become infected with this virus. The very best thing anyone of us can do for ourselves and family right at this point is - get as healthy now as possible and immediately address any slight sickness. This virus situation will only escalate in several arenas – infections of course, markets, others and politics will be in the forefront very soon. We are living in very special times and much much more is to come in the days ahead. Be smart and safe.
 Quoting: IdeaMan1624


I WAS STATIONED AT LACKLAND FOR A WHILE. SAN ANTONIO IS HELL! dead3

I'D BE VERY INTERESTED IN YOUR ECONOMIC REPORT. WHEN CAN WE EXPECT TO GET IT?

THANKS! hf
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78309681


San Antonio is not hell, but it's getting there. The liberal progressive government is destroying that beautiful city. I have a son there right now, and I'm afraid he is in a bad place when the true extent of this infection becomes known. There are just too many people, even though the city is spread out over a large area. Down town is always packed and the homeless are everywhere. One infected person on the River Walk could infect hundreds of others in a matter of an hour or less.
 Quoting: Epic Beard Guy


I spent a lot of time on Lackland as a youngster in Civil Air Patrol and my father was stationed at Kelly AFB. Oh, San Antonio can truely be hellish in the summer. You get heat and humidity, no thanks.

Although after my time in the Army, I would have to say that Ft Benning & Ft Polk are worse.

Last Edited by DeplorableDoomsdayGuy on 02/13/2020 01:24 PM
Single acts of tyranny may be ascribed to the accidental opinion of a day; but a series of oppressions, begun at a distinguished period, and pursued unalterably through every change of ministers, too plainly prove a deliberate, systematical plan of reducing us to slavery.
Rights of British America, 1774, Thomas Jefferson
IPgeolocater is broken, cant tell the difference between the US & Canada. 100% American
Fred_Flintstone

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02/13/2020 01:23 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
My fear is once it is 'uncontained' in a country and is not visible then it gets ugly. If it takes 20 days to show Pneumonia and only 2 days to incubate until a person is virulent then the person is spreading all the while. Plus the next person is infected and the next and the next. 9 generations later you see the person with pneumonia and have a clue it is there but then it is almost too late.

Once it is uncontained in a country the country needs to go on lockdown. If not, it is pretty much over for them.

We should see this data play out in Japan/SIG soon. If it escalates and they publish the real numbers then we will see what we are actually dealing with...problem is, even then it could be too late for all of us.
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02/13/2020 01:35 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
My fear is once it is 'uncontained' in a country and is not visible then it gets ugly. If it takes 20 days to show Pneumonia and only 2 days to incubate until a person is virulent then the person is spreading all the while. Plus the next person is infected and the next and the next. 9 generations later you see the person with pneumonia and have a clue it is there but then it is almost too late.

Once it is uncontained in a country the country needs to go on lockdown. If not, it is pretty much over for them.

We should see this data play out in Japan/SIG soon. If it escalates and they publish the real numbers then we will see what we are actually dealing with...problem is, even then it could be too late for all of us.
 Quoting: Fred_Flintstone


From an OPSEC standpoint consider it too late already and plan accordingly.

If you don't "beat the panic" you are too late.
The virus alone is just one issue. Think food supply, civil services, utilities, and quickly civil unrest(WOROL).
Zovalex

User ID: 77432258
United States
02/13/2020 01:45 PM

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
And NOBODY would read it...heck, half the people here didn't even read the entire main post, which is nothing.


Just look at how much time and words I used to answer a SINGLE question.

But I bet a ton of people won't read this entire reply.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


I am.

I’ve been watching this thread (and the -001 thread) several times a day since they were posted and I’ve been prepping accordingly. Besides ensuring I am well stocked in supplies, yesterday I also converted some investments to cash, and I will be withdrawing all investments from the market next week (despite my 20% return in 2019).
In other words, I and many others of GLP are taking your posts VERY seriously and ACTING on those posts accordingly.

Reading comprehension has long been a problem among many GLPers for many years.

Please don’t become frustrated with the village idiots of GLP. Recognize there is a large and growing crowd that are indeed hanging on your every word (while also understanding it’s a moving target, but a very real target).

Thank you for what you’re doing for all of us.
.
 Quoting: Zovalex


I did the same, closed all my positions in stocks and other investments and will not invest in anything again until there is a definition of what will happen.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78238428


I decided not to wait until next week. Discussed with my wife and elected to have our broker liquidate all 3 portfolios. It’s done. As of an hour ago, I don’t have a single share in the markets. Too much can happen over the weekend and markets could gap down Monday morning. My broker says analysts are confident the market will continue to climb, but I explained if I’m wrong, I simply stand to lose a few grand in potential gains, but if I’m right then I stand to lose tens of thousands in actual gains made over the past year.

I’ve told a couple friends of my decision, but they both have their head in the sand and are listening to the “official stories”, not my “GLP conspiracy theories”!! LOL!

.
“Mental slavery is the worst form of slavery.
It gives you the illusion of freedom,
makes you trust, love, and defend your oppressor,
while making an enemy of those
who are trying to free you or open your eyes.”
-Fiyah

“None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free.”
-Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

“Freedom of Speech really means never saying anything that The System doesn’t like.
Those who conform...believe they have a freedom that doesn’t actually exist. Freedom to conform is not freedom.”
-David Icke
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78473572
South Africa
02/13/2020 01:56 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
This link in French says that only 6 labs / countries can test the coronavirus in Africa for 1.2 billion people in that continent with one million chineses in overcrowded areas:

[link to www.slate.fr]

But one expects this number to be 30 soon (but when?).

This article also says that the postal service of South Africa doesn't accept parcels from China anymore!!!!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74996941


I picked up my parcels from Wish two days ago....so not sure where that news comes from
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78472576


Is 'Wish' the SA state postal service? Or maybe the decision is more recent than two days ago?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74996941


Wish is a Chinese online store like Alibaba, they deliver through the South African Postal service.
Zovalex

User ID: 77432258
United States
02/13/2020 02:00 PM

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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
[link to www.ccn.com (secure)]


Dow Tumbles as U.S. Warned of 100,000s of Coronavirus Cases

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74996941


“Dow tumbles”????

Strange, because I’m looking right at it and it’s at the highest level it’s ever been in stock market history.

.
“Mental slavery is the worst form of slavery.
It gives you the illusion of freedom,
makes you trust, love, and defend your oppressor,
while making an enemy of those
who are trying to free you or open your eyes.”
-Fiyah

“None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free.”
-Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

“Freedom of Speech really means never saying anything that The System doesn’t like.
Those who conform...believe they have a freedom that doesn’t actually exist. Freedom to conform is not freedom.”
-David Icke
UnReal
User ID: 77605276
Belgium
02/13/2020 02:03 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
We're fucked..
IdeaMan1624

User ID: 77578604
United States
02/13/2020 02:19 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
And NOBODY would read it...heck, half the people here didn't even read the entire main post, which is nothing.


Just look at how much time and words I used to answer a SINGLE question.

But I bet a ton of people won't read this entire reply.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


I am.

I’ve been watching this thread (and the -001 thread) several times a day since they were posted and I’ve been prepping accordingly. Besides ensuring I am well stocked in supplies, yesterday I also converted some investments to cash, and I will be withdrawing all investments from the market next week (despite my 20% return in 2019).
In other words, I and many others of GLP are taking your posts VERY seriously and ACTING on those posts accordingly.

Reading comprehension has long been a problem among many GLPers for many years.

Please don’t become frustrated with the village idiots of GLP. Recognize there is a large and growing crowd that are indeed hanging on your every word (while also understanding it’s a moving target, but a very real target).

Thank you for what you’re doing for all of us.
.
 Quoting: Zovalex


I did the same, closed all my positions in stocks and other investments and will not invest in anything again until there is a definition of what will happen.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78238428


I decided not to wait until next week. Discussed with my wife and elected to have our broker liquidate all 3 portfolios. It’s done. As of an hour ago, I don’t have a single share in the markets. Too much can happen over the weekend and markets could gap down Monday morning. My broker says analysts are confident the market will continue to climb, but I explained if I’m wrong, I simply stand to lose a few grand in potential gains, but if I’m right then I stand to lose tens of thousands in actual gains made over the past year.

I’ve told a couple friends of my decision, but they both have their head in the sand and are listening to the “official stories”, not my “GLP conspiracy theories”!! LOL!

.
 Quoting: Zovalex


Tell your friends to sell a partial position and short the DOW or SPX or even option puts to hedge a large downside move which is very likely any day now. I would say trillions of USD have already gone into the markets worldwide to keep them up. Its coming to an end very soon. JMO
IdeaMan1624
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78472133
Greece
02/13/2020 02:20 PM
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Re: LATEST model for COVID19 infection rate OUTSIDE China-South Korea and Italy(Updated)pg.79-MAJOR UPDATE pg.83-UPDATE pg.87
The officials in Greece haven't announced any Coronavirus case for the moment. The weird thing though is that we had a sadden spike in deaths from the flu, 17 and 15 deaths in the two previous weeks with a total of 53 dead since October, so MOST of them died in the two previous weeks which is weird too because the weather is actually very nice and it isn't ideal for the spread of the flu virus. I am wondering if they actually report Coronavirus caused deaths as flu ones in order not to cause any panic.





GLP