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CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281

 
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 04:17 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
FULL INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL MUST STOP BY FEB.3RD.
FULL LOCAL TRAVEL IN AFFECTED COUNTRIES MUST STOP BY FEB. 5TH.


If the above measures are not taking place, the pandemic will be catastrophic.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Agree wholeheartedly. I don't have the knowledge to extrapolate the numbers, but I fully believe there's a small window before this is full blown if nothing is done to close borders.

I'm traveling in SoCal right now and last week I was considering extending my trip. After thinking it through, I realized it's better to leave as planned in 2 days before there's the potential of air traffic, especially international, being grounded. Told a few friends and they think I'm overestimating and being dramatic.

I think in less than one month this will be either under control or a pandemic.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78270494


Similar situation here. The absolute worst case would be stuck in some hotel in a place far from home with nothing in my wallet but plastic. Not this time. This isn’t a drill.
Way too awake, maybe not

User ID: 74788305
United States
01/28/2020 04:18 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
From the beginning, I want to specify that my model is only for the infection rate. Not death rate, and not confirmed cases by the authorities and governments. It is a mathematical model, based on 4 separate patterns :

-Chinese official number
-The commonly accepted R0 of 2.6 among many epidemiologists
-The Spanish Flu R0 of 1.8
-The weaponized virus R0 > 5

Starting from January 16th, all the patterns, except the one based on an Ro of 2.6 failed to apply.

The R0 = 2.6 pattern still stands, for China. However, considering that China is still allowing free travel among all provinces except Tibet (least populated and most isolated one) and Hubei (the epicenter of the pandemic), the R0 will jump over 3 by Sunday, February 2nd.

For the developed countries, with better hygiene, long history of flu (herd immunization) and high quality medical system, the R0 was skewed (for the time being) to 2.2.

If the developed countries will not stop ALL travel by Sunday, Feb. 2nd, the R0 will jump to 2.6.


Everyone can do their own math, applying an R0 = 2.2, for the develop countries, 2.4 for Asian countries and 2.6 for China, while adjusting the index for infection spread chance to 0.7-0.8.
As an example 10 x 2.2 x 0.7, for developed countries and 10 x 2.2 x 0.8 for SE Asia, South and Central America and Africa.

For those that don't want to do that, here is the infection spread, worldwide (except China mainland), starting with today, January 28th, with all the numbers adjusted :


January 28th 00:00 GMT :
Between 3,000 and 4,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 37-38 cases.

January 29th, 00:00 GMT :
Between 5,200 and 7,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 67-69 cases.

January 30th, 00:00 GMT : Between 8,000 and 12,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 103-106 cases.

January 31st, 00:00 GMT : 12,300 - 20,100 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 158 - 168 cases.

February 1st, 00:00 GMT : 18,900 - 30,900 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 243 - 258

February 2nd, 00:00 GMT : 29,100 - 47,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 374 - 397.

If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate.These are the numbers :

February 3rd, 00:00 GMT : 48,000 - 78,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 617 - 655

February 4th, 00:00 GMT : 79,200 - 128,700 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 1,018 - 1,080.

If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate.These are the numbers :

February 5th, 00:00 GMT : 139,000 - 226,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 1,790 - 1,900.


From this date on, the pandemic no longer can be contained, without full quarantine, at least for all major cities across the world. This will come with total economic collapse and the panic that will be widespread.

The huge difference between the number of infected in my model, is because most populated countries are also underdeveloped, and the virus will affect much more people in India and SE Asia.

If full or at last partial quarantine is not implemented by February 5th, in major cities across the world, the pandemic will spread as follow (adjusted for higher R0 and higher index for infection spread chance), with the mention that the numbers will be the median ones :

Feb 6th :345,000 infected with 3,600 presenting symptoms
Feb 7th :690,000 infected with 7,500 presenting symptoms
Feb 8th : 1,435,000 / 15,600
Feb 9th : 2,980,000 / 27,456
Feb 10th: 6,240,000 / 57,100
Feb 11th: 12,979,000 / 118,100
Feb 12th: 27,990,000 / 245,600
Feb 13th: 58,220,000 / 509,600
Feb 14th:121,970,000 /1,060,000
Feb 15th:253,697,000 /2,204,800

From February 16th, multiple health systems across the world will collapse.Hospitals will be overcrowded and unable to test and treat most of the patients.The social fabric will completely collapse, and the governments, if they delayed the quarantines, will have no other choice but to lock-down hundreds of millions of people in major and large to medium cities, with hundreds of millions more self-isolating in smaller cities, towns and villages.

There might be slight variations in my model, if some countries implement some travel restrictions here and there, some quarantines here and there...but anything except total quarantine is not going to work, but only delay the infection by mere DAYS.


I am going to end with what matters the most, for my model to HOPEFULLY fail :

FULL INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL MUST STOP BY FEB.3RD.
FULL LOCAL TRAVEL IN AFFECTED COUNTRIES MUST STOP BY FEB. 5TH.


If the above measures are not taking place, the pandemic will be catastrophic.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Almost every single model from actual docs/agencies refutes yours.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76469913


And you believe them?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 74752921
United States
01/28/2020 04:19 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
Again, OP, I ask, are you or are you not a "flat earther"?

According to numerous of your karma comments, you apparently believe in the flat earth hypothesis.

I think many following your thread would like to know if you subscribe to this hypothesis.

A simple yes or no will suffice since you are propagating doom on a pretty important subject matter here.

People should know who is putting such a doom scenario forward with such confidence.

Do you or do you not believe the earth is FLAT?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 535854
Lithuania
01/28/2020 04:20 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
Again, OP, I ask, are you or are you not a "flat earther"?

According to numerous of your karma comments, you apparently believe in the flat earth hypothesis.

I think many following your thread would like to know if you subscribe to this hypothesis.

A simple yes or no will suffice since you are propagating doom on a pretty important subject matter here.

People should know who is putting such a doom scenario forward with such confidence.

Do you or do you not believe the earth is FLAT?
 Quoting: Inquire Within


Good call.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78399578
United States
01/28/2020 04:20 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
From the beginning, I want to specify that my model is only for the infection rate. Not death rate, and not confirmed cases by the authorities and governments. It is a mathematical model, based on 4 separate patterns :

-Chinese official number
-The commonly accepted R0 of 2.6 among many epidemiologists
-The Spanish Flu R0 of 1.8
-The weaponized virus R0 > 5

Starting from January 16th, all the patterns, except the one based on an Ro of 2.6 failed to apply.

The R0 = 2.6 pattern still stands, for China. However, considering that China is still allowing free travel among all provinces except Tibet (least populated and most isolated one) and Hubei (the epicenter of the pandemic), the R0 will jump over 3 by Sunday, February 2nd.

For the developed countries, with better hygiene, long history of flu (herd immunization) and high quality medical system, the R0 was skewed (for the time being) to 2.2.

If the developed countries will not stop ALL travel by Sunday, Feb. 2nd, the R0 will jump to 2.6.


Everyone can do their own math, applying an R0 = 2.2, for the develop countries, 2.4 for Asian countries and 2.6 for China, while adjusting the index for infection spread chance to 0.7-0.8.
As an example 10 x 2.2 x 0.7, for developed countries and 10 x 2.2 x 0.8 for SE Asia, South and Central America and Africa.

For those that don't want to do that, here is the infection spread, worldwide (except China mainland), starting with today, January 28th, with all the numbers adjusted :


January 28th 00:00 GMT :
Between 3,000 and 4,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 37-38 cases.

January 29th, 00:00 GMT :
Between 5,200 and 7,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 67-69 cases.

January 30th, 00:00 GMT : Between 8,000 and 12,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 103-106 cases.

January 31st, 00:00 GMT : 12,300 - 20,100 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 158 - 168 cases.

February 1st, 00:00 GMT : 18,900 - 30,900 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 243 - 258

February 2nd, 00:00 GMT : 29,100 - 47,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 374 - 397.

If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate.These are the numbers :

February 3rd, 00:00 GMT : 48,000 - 78,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 617 - 655

February 4th, 00:00 GMT : 79,200 - 128,700 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 1,018 - 1,080.

If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate.These are the numbers :

February 5th, 00:00 GMT : 139,000 - 226,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 1,790 - 1,900.


From this date on, the pandemic no longer can be contained, without full quarantine, at least for all major cities across the world. This will come with total economic collapse and the panic that will be widespread.

The huge difference between the number of infected in my model, is because most populated countries are also underdeveloped, and the virus will affect much more people in India and SE Asia.

If full or at last partial quarantine is not implemented by February 5th, in major cities across the world, the pandemic will spread as follow (adjusted for higher R0 and higher index for infection spread chance), with the mention that the numbers will be the median ones :

Feb 6th :345,000 infected with 3,600 presenting symptoms
Feb 7th :690,000 infected with 7,500 presenting symptoms
Feb 8th : 1,435,000 / 15,600
Feb 9th : 2,980,000 / 27,456
Feb 10th: 6,240,000 / 57,100
Feb 11th: 12,979,000 / 118,100
Feb 12th: 27,990,000 / 245,600
Feb 13th: 58,220,000 / 509,600
Feb 14th:121,970,000 /1,060,000
Feb 15th:253,697,000 /2,204,800

From February 16th, multiple health systems across the world will collapse.Hospitals will be overcrowded and unable to test and treat most of the patients.The social fabric will completely collapse, and the governments, if they delayed the quarantines, will have no other choice but to lock-down hundreds of millions of people in major and large to medium cities, with hundreds of millions more self-isolating in smaller cities, towns and villages.

There might be slight variations in my model, if some countries implement some travel restrictions here and there, some quarantines here and there...but anything except total quarantine is not going to work, but only delay the infection by mere DAYS.


I am going to end with what matters the most, for my model to HOPEFULLY fail :

FULL INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL MUST STOP BY FEB.3RD.
FULL LOCAL TRAVEL IN AFFECTED COUNTRIES MUST STOP BY FEB. 5TH.


If the above measures are not taking place, the pandemic will be catastrophic.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


this sounds legit; question what are your credentials; would like to share this out more widely but won't be taken serious by non-GLPers without credentials.
 Quoting: chrion777


This is from 2 days ago.

Its a Wuhan Vloger/photographer cataloging the abandoned city of Wuhan

ITs practically empty 14 million people just up and left....

eerie

Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78270494
01/28/2020 04:23 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
FULL INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL MUST STOP BY FEB.3RD.
FULL LOCAL TRAVEL IN AFFECTED COUNTRIES MUST STOP BY FEB. 5TH.


If the above measures are not taking place, the pandemic will be catastrophic.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Agree wholeheartedly. I don't have the knowledge to extrapolate the numbers, but I fully believe there's a small window before this is full blown if nothing is done to close borders.

I'm traveling in SoCal right now and last week I was considering extending my trip. After thinking it through, I realized it's better to leave as planned in 2 days before there's the potential of air traffic, especially international, being grounded. Told a few friends and they think I'm overestimating and being dramatic.

I think in less than one month this will be either under control or a pandemic.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78270494


Similar situation here. The absolute worst case would be stuck in some hotel in a place far from home with nothing in my wallet but plastic. Not this time. This isn’t a drill.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 72593061


Good luck to you! I pray we make it home.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 77750782
Netherlands
01/28/2020 04:25 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
its spreading but its not a pandemic.

mostly weak old people die. for everyone else it is just a bad cold.

Havent seen anything to indicate otherwise.
MKPitBull

User ID: 77641596
United States
01/28/2020 04:25 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
FULL INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL MUST STOP BY FEB.3RD.
FULL LOCAL TRAVEL IN AFFECTED COUNTRIES MUST STOP BY FEB. 5TH.


If the above measures are not taking place, the pandemic will be catastrophic.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Agree wholeheartedly. I don't have the knowledge to extrapolate the numbers, but I fully believe there's a small window before this is full blown if nothing is done to close borders.

I'm traveling in SoCal right now and last week I was considering extending my trip. After thinking it through, I realized it's better to leave as planned in 2 days before there's the potential of air traffic, especially international, being grounded. Told a few friends and they think I'm overestimating and being dramatic.

I think in less than one month this will be either under control or a pandemic.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78270494


Two weeks this will be a global pandemic unless air travel is restricted in the next few days. It probably won’t be until later next week. Tptb motives, well you surmise.
 Quoting: MKPitBull


Crossing my fingers borders stay open through Friday. I'm going home to South America and don't want to get stuck here!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78270494


Good luck to you, safe travels wished
"Come get some"
ParamedicUK

User ID: 78396785
United Kingdom
01/28/2020 04:27 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
you and I both know the RO number of 2.6 is bullpucky
 Quoting: Jake


For China and South East Asia it is.

By my model is adjusted for US, EU, Japan, SK, Australia, NZ and other developed countries to 2.2 in the incipient phase to 2.6 in the mid stage of the pandemic.

For South East Asia, the R0 is 2.6 in the incipient stage, and 3 in the mid stage of the pandemic.


After that, it won't matter how big the R0 is, the society will be collapsed anyway, and nobody will give a fuck about it.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


true on the it wont matter part.

we are screwed I can feel it in my bones.
 Quoting: Jake


Oh yeah, we are. Big time.


This is why I bolded what it must be done to limit and eventually stop the pandemic...but we all know that they won't do it, until way too fucking late.


I also didn't bothered on death rate, because it is irrelevant. The social collapse will kill many more people than the virus will.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Exactly the social collapse is the main point here - forget the masks and washing your hands as we will all probably get it at some time like we get its relative the common cold.

Time to focus on getting through the collapse - how long will that take I wonder??
humbird

User ID: 73158440
United States
01/28/2020 04:27 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
Excellent work,OP. 5 stars from me. Did a prep run to BJs this morning,only saw one guy prepping, pulling two carts, looking serious. All the other shoppers were clueless.

I am going to karaoke tonight for the last time in a long time. It's my only outing to enclosed spaces anyway. i will give my friends there the heads up, but no one takes me seriously.Still, gotta do whatcha gotta do.So glad I quit church, which was a huge flu factory.
Aside from the small band of Forteans scattered around the world, nobody seems to notice all aspects of this phantasmagoria.(John A. Keel)
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78270494
01/28/2020 04:29 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
...


Agree wholeheartedly. I don't have the knowledge to extrapolate the numbers, but I fully believe there's a small window before this is full blown if nothing is done to close borders.

I'm traveling in SoCal right now and last week I was considering extending my trip. After thinking it through, I realized it's better to leave as planned in 2 days before there's the potential of air traffic, especially international, being grounded. Told a few friends and they think I'm overestimating and being dramatic.

I think in less than one month this will be either under control or a pandemic.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78270494


Two weeks this will be a global pandemic unless air travel is restricted in the next few days. It probably won’t be until later next week. Tptb motives, well you surmise.
 Quoting: MKPitBull


Crossing my fingers borders stay open through Friday. I'm going home to South America and don't want to get stuck here!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78270494


Good luck to you, safe travels wished
 Quoting: MKPitBull


hf
DEPLORABLE windowlicker

User ID: 77602799
United States
01/28/2020 04:29 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
Thank you OP for all your hard work and sharing it as well. This is a very frightening event and like many others I'm doing the best I can to prepare for it. Trying to stay as informed as I can is part of that.

5 smile_kiss and some green
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78378283
United States
01/28/2020 04:30 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
hidinghidinghidinghidinghidinghiding
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78090455
United States
01/28/2020 04:32 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281


Scary, this guy is like Will Smith in "I Am legend" .
deplorable recollector  (OP)

User ID: 73110508
Romania
01/28/2020 04:33 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
Again, OP, I ask, are you or are you not a "flat earther"?

According to numerous of your karma comments, you apparently believe in the flat earth hypothesis.

I think many following your thread would like to know if you subscribe to this hypothesis.

A simple yes or no will suffice since you are propagating doom on a pretty important subject matter here.

People should know who is putting such a doom scenario forward with such confidence.

Do you or do you not believe the earth is FLAT?
 Quoting: Inquire Within


Please do not derail the thread.

I can believe in anything : flat earth, the Greys, reptilians, elite baby eaters, flying monkyes... I don't see the relevance for a MATHEMATICAL MODEL.


Also, since you will be coming back on GLP tomorrow, and the day after, and the day after...feel free to call me an idiot if my model doesn't hold.
Sumtingwonger

User ID: 74785151
United States
01/28/2020 04:35 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
This is really well done, Hoping and praying for GLP effect to kick in.
******************
It’s all good man!
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78257537
United States
01/28/2020 04:37 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
its spreading but its not a pandemic.

mostly weak old people die. for everyone else it is just a bad cold.

Havent seen anything to indicate otherwise.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77750782


Haven't (s)een anyt(h)ing to (i)ndicate otherwise.

mostly weak o(l)d people die, it is just a bad co(l)d.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1159767
United States
01/28/2020 04:37 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
i totally just pee'd alittle, in excitement.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78402244
United Kingdom
01/28/2020 04:39 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
Again, OP, I ask, are you or are you not a "flat earther"?

According to numerous of your karma comments, you apparently believe in the flat earth hypothesis.

I think many following your thread would like to know if you subscribe to this hypothesis.

A simple yes or no will suffice since you are propagating doom on a pretty important subject matter here.

People should know who is putting such a doom scenario forward with such confidence.

Do you or do you not believe the earth is FLAT?
 Quoting: Inquire Within


Please do not derail the thread.

I can believe in anything : flat earth, the Greys, reptilians, elite baby eaters, flying monkyes... I don't see the relevance for a MATHEMATICAL MODEL.


Also, since you will be coming back on GLP tomorrow, and the day after, and the day after...feel free to call me an idiot if my model doesn't hold.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


clappa
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 04:42 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
its spreading but its not a pandemic.

mostly weak old people die. for everyone else it is just a bad cold.

Havent seen anything to indicate otherwise.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77750782


Thats just conjecture, how do you profess to know the age and background of the people who have died?
stillhere

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01/28/2020 04:42 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
Its not really going to harm the economy that much, if by the time we figure out the vaccine, (6months?) after the quarantines are lifted there will be mass shopping sprees and demand for all types of goods, it will allow the economy to rebound, the central banks will have to absorb the depression in the GDPs and we pay it back through increased tax and austerity.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78403405

I beg to differ...

What will affect the economy....there will be massive death...down the road fewer people to buy things and pay taxes.

Any place that is under lockdown...things are not being produced

This affects everything....people won’t be paid for not working

People will stop going out...so restaurants will suffer, people will pull their kids out of schools, and not be likely to send them back

People won’t be able to pay their bills

Remember most of the ingredients in our prescription drugs come from China....so imagine all the shortages and people not able to get their medications

Crime will escalate and people will abandon their jobs

The fallout is so much worse than the virus itself

Common sense shows all the reasons for the governments to lie to prevent or delay panic
"You can bend it and twist it... You can misuse and abuse it... But even God cannot change the Truth.”
Michael Levy
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 77039629
Netherlands
01/28/2020 04:43 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
Again, OP, I ask, are you or are you not a "flat earther"?

According to numerous of your karma comments, you apparently believe in the flat earth hypothesis.

I think many following your thread would like to know if you subscribe to this hypothesis.

A simple yes or no will suffice since you are propagating doom on a pretty important subject matter here.

People should know who is putting such a doom scenario forward with such confidence.

Do you or do you not believe the earth is FLAT?
 Quoting: Inquire Within


Ohhh...you're asking that? c'mon...you believe in Q!
lmao
Aubrey Clare

User ID: 64698495
United States
01/28/2020 04:44 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
Again, OP, I ask, are you or are you not a "flat earther"?

According to numerous of your karma comments, you apparently believe in the flat earth hypothesis.

I think many following your thread would like to know if you subscribe to this hypothesis.

A simple yes or no will suffice since you are propagating doom on a pretty important subject matter here.

People should know who is putting such a doom scenario forward with such confidence.

Do you or do you not believe the earth is FLAT?
 Quoting: Inquire Within


What the hell.

Do you believe in Movies and Nasa?

If not your math is incorrect.


American Indian Elder

User ID: 78360793
United States
01/28/2020 04:44 PM

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FIVE gold stars
Do any long time members remember the many times I recounted my first vision when I was about three years old?Here's a shortened recap:I was a seventh child and "gifted"
My older sister and I shared a small room, I slept near the wall. I half woke up probably around 3-4 a.m. and in the dimness of the room I saw chicken sized birds all over and the wall was gone and I saw piles of dead birds and animals and strangly dressed people with hats like one wore to keep away "no-see-ums" and mosquitos(now I believe them to be hazmat outfits" Piles of things were on fire.
I sat up and woke up my sister and she said, go back to sleep so I hollered for my parents. My dad came into the room and turned the round lite switch to the bare bulb hanging overhead. NOW it was worse, I saw a dead rooster right on my bed, some on the floor and the huge space (like and underground parking place), with piles of people.My Dad grabbed me up and told me just close your eyes and simmer down. He gave me to Mom and she rocked me back to sleep.

The next day,in the desk where my Dad tied flies for winter income, he showed me drawer after drawer of feathers and asked me what the rooster neck feathers looked like.I always picked the same ones. They were from China. We then went to Grandma's.She was a Wabeno-kwe,(dream interpeter)My uncle also listened, and drummed first, a protection song. I cant tell you all she said,some is sacred, but basically, she said:
" Remember this dream. Before you die, you will see alot of strangers, the world will get "smaller". Where those birds you saw were, there is not enough food, people eat unclean, get sick from the animals. Animals get sick from the people, then it goes back to the people and kills some. Birds get sick, fly all over and carry the sickness, soon everyone is sick. This will happen in your lifetime.First a few times and nothing happens. Then Big. To stay ok, never eat anything with feathers, not even eggs, Big cities by the oceans will be worst." She also thought the wall was important but couldnt figure how, but since then Ive thought the WALL on our southren border could keep alot of problems like this under some control.
Of course I never ate Fowl as she said, and have had many other visions, which this was since I saw only better with the light on, intead of it all vanishing if it were a dream. The visions are pretty accurate, timing is hard to guess.It's due to happen soon as I'll be 80 next year and have a myriad of ills, from Lupus to severe heart problems, so this epidemic could be the one.
amdg
marooned
((obscured by clouds))

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01/28/2020 04:47 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
5maroons
Hey
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01/28/2020 04:51 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
Great work OP, the numbers are ok giving the R0 ur thinking at.But CCP and no one else is taking into consideration the mutations and that it can be/become airborn + 2-28 days it takes to die wich means that its real value is way higher. Imagine someone sneezing in China and infecting 100 peoples in Japan if the wind decides to blow that way.Thats the real R0.The cases we`re getting right now are diluted by the CCP + incubation period + the silent/inactive infected ones + the tests crysis China is facing rn.

Just my 2 cents on this .. by the end of summer we will have roughly 3-4 bil cases around the globe, so in the end we will all get it. Hopefully by then tho, they will have a vaccine, since the shortest time in wich they can make one is 8 weeks, from the moment they actually know what theyr fighting against. The specialists said that the virus is mutating in a diffrent way from person to person, the only stable thing beeing the distribution pattern, flu like.So im thinking that R0 is extremly unstable in these cases.
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 04:52 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
YAHWEH GAVE ME ZOMBIE DREAM THREE DAYS BEFORE THIS STARTED MEN WOMEN BABIES AND ANIMALS TURNED INTO ZOMBIES THEN HE GAVE ME A VISION I LIVE IN IDAHO BUT MY BODY WAS IN NY TIMES SQUARE LOOKING AT THE SIGNS AND THEN I HEARD THE WORD EPICENTER! THE VIRUS WILL SPREAD FROM THERE OR HUGE EARTH QUAKE MAY HAPPEN! PRAISE THE YUD HEY VAV HEY!
 Quoting: YAHWEHS WIFE 78182194


YOU POSTED 11 MINUTES EARLIER11111!1
5a
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2020 04:52 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
Its not really going to harm the economy that much, if by the time we figure out the vaccine, (6months?) after the quarantines are lifted there will be mass shopping sprees and demand for all types of goods, it will allow the economy to rebound, the central banks will have to absorb the depression in the GDPs and we pay it back through increased tax and austerity.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78403405

I beg to differ...

What will affect the economy....there will be massive death...down the road fewer people to buy things and pay taxes.

Any place that is under lockdown...things are not being produced

This affects everything....people won’t be paid for not working

People will stop going out...so restaurants will suffer, people will pull their kids out of schools, and not be likely to send them back

People won’t be able to pay their bills

Remember most of the ingredients in our prescription drugs come from China....so imagine all the shortages and people not able to get their medications

Crime will escalate and people will abandon their jobs

The fallout is so much worse than the virus itself

Common sense shows all the reasons for the governments to lie to prevent or delay panic
 Quoting: stillhere


Assuming the infection information coming from China is equal ("official" numbers) to or greater (likely numbers) than being reported and the city shutdowns are real, there is likely to be an big impact pretty soon (scarcity, excessive $ of what can be found) on the US market for all those goods made predominantly or only in China.
ChefElvis

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01/28/2020 04:56 PM

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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
Again, OP, I ask, are you or are you not a "flat earther"?

According to numerous of your karma comments, you apparently believe in the flat earth hypothesis.

I think many following your thread would like to know if you subscribe to this hypothesis.

A simple yes or no will suffice since you are propagating doom on a pretty important subject matter here.

People should know who is putting such a doom scenario forward with such confidence.

Do you or do you not believe the earth is FLAT?
 Quoting: Inquire Within


Ohhh...you're asking that? c'mon...you believe in Q!
lmao
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77039629


Trust the plan. cruisewuflu
A legend in my own mind
GSB/LTD

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01/28/2020 04:57 PM
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Re: CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 281
Its not really going to harm the economy that much, if by the time we figure out the vaccine, (6months?) after the quarantines are lifted there will be mass shopping sprees and demand for all types of goods, it will allow the economy to rebound, the central banks will have to absorb the depression in the GDPs and we pay it back through increased tax and austerity.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78403405

I beg to differ...

What will affect the economy....there will be massive death...down the road fewer people to buy things and pay taxes.

Any place that is under lockdown...things are not being produced

This affects everything....people won’t be paid for not working

People will stop going out...so restaurants will suffer, people will pull their kids out of schools, and not be likely to send them back

People won’t be able to pay their bills

Remember most of the ingredients in our prescription drugs come from China....so imagine all the shortages and people not able to get their medications

Crime will escalate and people will abandon their jobs

The fallout is so much worse than the virus itself

Common sense shows all the reasons for the governments to lie to prevent or delay panic
 Quoting: stillhere


The first visible sign will be when China closes its ports; that move alone will have a ripple effect from Wall street to freighters which are still at sea wanting to unload cargo in San Diego, San Francisco or Seattle. And it'll be downhill from there.

Last Edited by GSB/LTD on 01/28/2020 05:07 PM





GLP