WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month | |
MKPitBull User ID: 76946775 United States 01/28/2020 03:44 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Its not really going to harm the economy that much, if by the time we figure out the vaccine, (6months?) after the quarantines are lifted there will be mass shopping sprees and demand for all types of goods, it will allow the economy to rebound, the central banks will have to absorb the depression in the GDPs and we pay it back through increased tax and austerity. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78403405 Lol, stay outta work in Quarantine for six months and see where you are on so called shopping sprees. Fuck that’s funny "Be like water my friend”- Bruce Lee |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 18491119 United States 01/28/2020 03:45 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 77650059 United States 01/28/2020 03:48 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | For the curious ones that are anxiously waiting the new numbers from China : Quoting: deplorable recollector The total number of confirmed cases that will be reported next by the Chinese government will be 8,099, give it a 1-2% error. The REAL and total number of the infected people (asymptomatic and confirmed) in China is roughly 700,000 people, most of them in the 1-2 day incubation period. Assuming by today there are 700,000 infected in China, and the outbreak began the first week of December, the daily multiplier would be 1.261 or a monthly multiplier of 1,050. That being said, SARS had a RO of 2.4 in China, and dropped to approximately 0.7 in the developed world. If 2019-nCoV has a RO of 3.8 in China, the RO in the 1st World should be around 1.11 - assuming the effect of distance, cleanliness, and protective measures affect nCoV as they did with SARS. A RO of 1.11 is a monthly multiplier of 1.5X infected. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78404885 United Kingdom 01/28/2020 03:48 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | This is doomy. Can they smell corpses? [link to mobile.twitter.com (secure)] |
RomanianGuy User ID: 78359161 Romania 01/28/2020 03:48 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | From February 16th, multiple health systems across the world will collapse.Hospitals will be overcrowded and unable to test and treat most of the patients.The social fabric will completely collapse, and the governments, if they delayed the quarantines, will have no other choice but to lock-down hundreds of millions of people in major and large to medium cities, with hundreds of millions more self-isolating in smaller cities, towns and villages. Quoting: deplorable recollector The social fabric is not that weak. Even if your bleak scenario is accurate, and no vaccine is discovered, societies will shrink and adapt. Government will restrict the media. Martial law will be widespread. Health systems won't collapse because people with flu will no longer be allowed to swarm hospitals. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 77775407 United States 01/28/2020 03:50 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
MKPitBull User ID: 76946775 United States 01/28/2020 03:50 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I have a question if anyone might know. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76538212 Lots of people live paycheck to paycheck in low end jobs, struggling to pay bills and rent. In the USA if the virus gets so bad that work places close and society begins to collapse. Does the USA government step up to stop things like utility bills if no one can go to work? We would all still need water to flush toilets, right? Lol, the US government doesn’t give a shit about you. Your a slave that can be replaced after the fuckery. Best be prepared on your own to survive. "Be like water my friend”- Bruce Lee |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78270494 United States 01/28/2020 03:51 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | FULL INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL MUST STOP BY FEB.3RD. Quoting: deplorable recollector FULL LOCAL TRAVEL IN AFFECTED COUNTRIES MUST STOP BY FEB. 5TH. If the above measures are not taking place, the pandemic will be catastrophic. Agree wholeheartedly. I don't have the knowledge to extrapolate the numbers, but I fully believe there's a small window before this is full blown if nothing is done to close borders. I'm traveling in SoCal right now and last week I was considering extending my trip. After thinking it through, I realized it's better to leave as planned in 2 days before there's the potential of air traffic, especially international, being grounded. Told a few friends and they think I'm overestimating and being dramatic. I think in less than one month this will be either under control or a pandemic. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78092495 United States 01/28/2020 03:52 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | For China and South East Asia it is. By my model is adjusted for US, EU, Japan, SK, Australia, NZ and other developed countries to 2.2 in the incipient phase to 2.6 in the mid stage of the pandemic. For South East Asia, the R0 is 2.6 in the incipient stage, and 3 in the mid stage of the pandemic. After that, it won't matter how big the R0 is, the society will be collapsed anyway, and nobody will give a fuck about it. true on the it wont matter part. we are screwed I can feel it in my bones. Jake, NO we are NOT screwed. Come on now.....put ON your WARRIOR SPIRIT......we CAN protect ourselves against this. You know the routine.....get your preps updated NOW. After your preps are updated & you have more than ample food stored & natural remedies etc., then stay the heck away from going out anywhere. I've just made a new batch of the Winter Tonic (hot, hot, hot) & I'm busy cooking meals for my freezer, so I have meals already prepared. I also purchased some N95 masks. Tip: I plan on covering one of the masks with tin-foil, & taping it down with clear Duct tape. Then I will wear a surgical mask over top of that, if I have to go out in public. We can do this Jake & friends. Who has the money to just stock on what a years worth of supplies for a family of 4 on avg. You are looking at 10k easy then as if stocking up is going to help pay the bills while everything is still due until the complete collapse which may take a year. So in the meantime folks out trying to make a living are getting infected, what good does stocking up do? hrmmmmm we are fooked the end. |
deplorable recollector (OP) User ID: 73110508 United Kingdom 01/28/2020 03:55 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | UPDATE : Current number of confirmed cases outside China mainland : 58 + 7 in Taiwan. 65 in total. Model predicted number by January 29th, 00:00 GMT : 67-69. Current time : January 28th, 20:55 GMT. Last Edited by Recollector on 01/28/2020 05:35 PM |
MKPitBull User ID: 76946775 United States 01/28/2020 03:55 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | FULL INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL MUST STOP BY FEB.3RD. Quoting: deplorable recollector FULL LOCAL TRAVEL IN AFFECTED COUNTRIES MUST STOP BY FEB. 5TH. If the above measures are not taking place, the pandemic will be catastrophic. Agree wholeheartedly. I don't have the knowledge to extrapolate the numbers, but I fully believe there's a small window before this is full blown if nothing is done to close borders. I'm traveling in SoCal right now and last week I was considering extending my trip. After thinking it through, I realized it's better to leave as planned in 2 days before there's the potential of air traffic, especially international, being grounded. Told a few friends and they think I'm overestimating and being dramatic. I think in less than one month this will be either under control or a pandemic. Two weeks this will be a global pandemic unless air travel is restricted in the next few days. It probably won’t be until later next week. Tptb motives, well you surmise. "Be like water my friend”- Bruce Lee |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 41996781 United States 01/28/2020 03:57 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
SilverCyprus User ID: 77123653 Canada 01/28/2020 03:57 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Who has the money to just stock on what a years worth of supplies for a family of 4 on avg. You are looking at 10k easy then as if stocking up is going to help pay the bills while everything is still due until the complete collapse which may take a year. So in the meantime folks out trying to make a living are getting infected, what good does stocking up do? hrmmmmm we are fooked the end. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78092495 Plant a garden instead. |
SWOOPSTER User ID: 76699386 United States 01/28/2020 04:00 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Who has the money to just stock on what a years worth of supplies for a family of 4 on avg. You are looking at 10k easy then as if stocking up is going to help pay the bills while everything is still due until the complete collapse which may take a year. So in the meantime folks out trying to make a living are getting infected, what good does stocking up do? hrmmmmm we are fooked the end. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78092495 Plant a garden instead. ~S~ |
Deplorable Revbo™ User ID: 77397371 United States 01/28/2020 04:00 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78405235 United States 01/28/2020 04:01 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | OP, if you may. What are your qualifications to publish this model outcome? Quoting: Nonentity I want to use your data. More about the author will help a lot. Please, thank you! I am the author of the model.As for qualifications, they are irrelevant. The model is based on people who are (or should be) highly qualified. It is nothing but a mathematical model, that used 4 different patterns, based on Spanish Flu, a Harvard epidemiologist R0 of 2.6, the Chinese official numbers and a theoretical weaponized virus. All patterns but the one from Harvard failed to deliver, showing major errors the moment the cases outside China started to be announced. The Harvard model also failed, but the error was minimal. Hence, I modified the Harvard model based on a R0 of 2.6 and 85% (or 0.8 modifier) infection chance, to a staggering R0 of 2.2, 2.4 and 2.6 with 0.7 and 0.8, considering the incipient stage of the pandemic outside China. The R0 is going to increase from 2.2 to 2.6 and the modifier from 0.7 to 0.8 very quickly, in the next 5 days (by Feb 3rd.), because no measures to stop the virus spread are being taken. The R0 is going to jump to 3 and above after Feb. 6th., again, because no measures are in place to stop the epidemic. Translation: "My qualifications include access to a computer and a higher IQ than the average GLP'er's." |
MKPitBull User ID: 76946775 United States 01/28/2020 04:03 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | ... Quoting: deplorable recollector For China and South East Asia it is. By my model is adjusted for US, EU, Japan, SK, Australia, NZ and other developed countries to 2.2 in the incipient phase to 2.6 in the mid stage of the pandemic. For South East Asia, the R0 is 2.6 in the incipient stage, and 3 in the mid stage of the pandemic. After that, it won't matter how big the R0 is, the society will be collapsed anyway, and nobody will give a fuck about it. true on the it wont matter part. we are screwed I can feel it in my bones. Jake, NO we are NOT screwed. Come on now.....put ON your WARRIOR SPIRIT......we CAN protect ourselves against this. You know the routine.....get your preps updated NOW. After your preps are updated & you have more than ample food stored & natural remedies etc., then stay the heck away from going out anywhere. I've just made a new batch of the Winter Tonic (hot, hot, hot) & I'm busy cooking meals for my freezer, so I have meals already prepared. I also purchased some N95 masks. Tip: I plan on covering one of the masks with tin-foil, & taping it down with clear Duct tape. Then I will wear a surgical mask over top of that, if I have to go out in public. We can do this Jake & friends. Who has the money to just stock on what a years worth of supplies for a family of 4 on avg. You are looking at 10k easy then as if stocking up is going to help pay the bills while everything is still due until the complete collapse which may take a year. So in the meantime folks out trying to make a living are getting infected, what good does stocking up do? hrmmmmm we are fooked the end. Shoulda planned ahead. Two years I could bug in and not need a damn thing without leaving my homestead. Power or not. Longer if needed "Be like water my friend”- Bruce Lee |
Sean Kaven User ID: 72593061 United States 01/28/2020 04:04 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
InterMezzo User ID: 45716769 Netherlands 01/28/2020 04:04 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Thanks for sharing this DR! I hope people realize themselves at which accelerating speed this can develop in just a few weeks. What might seem as quite low numbers first, can exponentially explode when we are two to four weeks in this outbreak. Great work! |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 75787209 United States 01/28/2020 04:05 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78404885 United Kingdom 01/28/2020 04:05 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 76799292 United States 01/28/2020 04:09 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78270494 United States 01/28/2020 04:10 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | FULL INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL MUST STOP BY FEB.3RD. Quoting: deplorable recollector FULL LOCAL TRAVEL IN AFFECTED COUNTRIES MUST STOP BY FEB. 5TH. If the above measures are not taking place, the pandemic will be catastrophic. Agree wholeheartedly. I don't have the knowledge to extrapolate the numbers, but I fully believe there's a small window before this is full blown if nothing is done to close borders. I'm traveling in SoCal right now and last week I was considering extending my trip. After thinking it through, I realized it's better to leave as planned in 2 days before there's the potential of air traffic, especially international, being grounded. Told a few friends and they think I'm overestimating and being dramatic. I think in less than one month this will be either under control or a pandemic. Two weeks this will be a global pandemic unless air travel is restricted in the next few days. It probably won’t be until later next week. Tptb motives, well you surmise. Crossing my fingers borders stay open through Friday. I'm going home to South America and don't want to get stuck here! |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78090455 Canada 01/28/2020 04:10 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Quarantining all cities etc would tank the economy and make things worse. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73848670 Right. So either way we're fucked... I'm going to grab some stuff this weekend.... I wasn't worried during SARS or any of that shit, but this really bothers me. SARS was also caused by a coronavius , the term is used today but defines a wide spectrum of viruses belonging to same family. "Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (SARS-CoV, SARSr-CoV) is the virus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS).[2] On April 16, 2003, following the outbreak of SARS in Asia and secondary cases elsewhere in the world, the World Health Organization (WHO) issued a press release stating that the coronavirus identified by a number of laboratories ......... The SARS coronavirus is a positive and single stranded RNA virus belonging to a family of enveloped coronaviruses. ......... [link to en.wikipedia.org (secure)] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 78404885 United Kingdom 01/28/2020 04:12 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 76469913 United States 01/28/2020 04:15 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | From the beginning, I want to specify that my model is only for the infection rate. Not death rate, and not confirmed cases by the authorities and governments. It is a mathematical model, based on 4 separate patterns : Quoting: deplorable recollector -Chinese official number -The commonly accepted R0 of 2.6 among many epidemiologists -The Spanish Flu R0 of 1.8 -The weaponized virus R0 > 5 Starting from January 16th, all the patterns, except the one based on an Ro of 2.6 failed to apply. The R0 = 2.6 pattern still stands, for China. However, considering that China is still allowing free travel among all provinces except Tibet (least populated and most isolated one) and Hubei (the epicenter of the pandemic), the R0 will jump over 3 by Sunday, February 2nd. For the developed countries, with better hygiene, long history of flu (herd immunization) and high quality medical system, the R0 was skewed (for the time being) to 2.2. If the developed countries will not stop ALL travel by Sunday, Feb. 2nd, the R0 will jump to 2.6. Everyone can do their own math, applying an R0 = 2.2, for the develop countries, 2.4 for Asian countries and 2.6 for China, while adjusting the index for infection spread chance to 0.7-0.8. As an example 10 x 2.2 x 0.7, for developed countries and 10 x 2.2 x 0.8 for SE Asia, South and Central America and Africa. For those that don't want to do that, here is the infection spread, worldwide (except China mainland), starting with today, January 28th, with all the numbers adjusted : January 28th 00:00 GMT : Between 3,000 and 4,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 37-38 cases. January 29th, 00:00 GMT : Between 5,200 and 7,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 67-69 cases. January 30th, 00:00 GMT : Between 8,000 and 12,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 103-106 cases. January 31st, 00:00 GMT : 12,300 - 20,100 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 158 - 168 cases. February 1st, 00:00 GMT : 18,900 - 30,900 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 243 - 258 February 2nd, 00:00 GMT : 29,100 - 47,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 374 - 397. If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate.These are the numbers : February 3rd, 00:00 GMT : 48,000 - 78,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 617 - 655 February 4th, 00:00 GMT : 79,200 - 128,700 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 1,018 - 1,080. If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate.These are the numbers : February 5th, 00:00 GMT : 139,000 - 226,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 1,790 - 1,900. From this date on, the pandemic no longer can be contained, without full quarantine, at least for all major cities across the world. This will come with total economic collapse and the panic that will be widespread. The huge difference between the number of infected in my model, is because most populated countries are also underdeveloped, and the virus will affect much more people in India and SE Asia. If full or at last partial quarantine is not implemented by February 5th, in major cities across the world, the pandemic will spread as follow (adjusted for higher R0 and higher index for infection spread chance), with the mention that the numbers will be the median ones : Feb 6th :345,000 infected with 3,600 presenting symptoms Feb 7th :690,000 infected with 7,500 presenting symptoms Feb 8th : 1,435,000 / 15,600 Feb 9th : 2,980,000 / 27,456 Feb 10th: 6,240,000 / 57,100 Feb 11th: 12,979,000 / 118,100 Feb 12th: 27,990,000 / 245,600 Feb 13th: 58,220,000 / 509,600 Feb 14th:121,970,000 /1,060,000 Feb 15th:253,697,000 /2,204,800 From February 16th, multiple health systems across the world will collapse.Hospitals will be overcrowded and unable to test and treat most of the patients.The social fabric will completely collapse, and the governments, if they delayed the quarantines, will have no other choice but to lock-down hundreds of millions of people in major and large to medium cities, with hundreds of millions more self-isolating in smaller cities, towns and villages. There might be slight variations in my model, if some countries implement some travel restrictions here and there, some quarantines here and there...but anything except total quarantine is not going to work, but only delay the infection by mere DAYS. I am going to end with what matters the most, for my model to HOPEFULLY fail : FULL INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL MUST STOP BY FEB.3RD. FULL LOCAL TRAVEL IN AFFECTED COUNTRIES MUST STOP BY FEB. 5TH. If the above measures are not taking place, the pandemic will be catastrophic. Almost every single model from actual docs/agencies refutes yours. |
deplorable recollector (OP) User ID: 73110508 United Kingdom 01/28/2020 04:17 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | From the beginning, I want to specify that my model is only for the infection rate. Not death rate, and not confirmed cases by the authorities and governments. It is a mathematical model, based on 4 separate patterns : Quoting: deplorable recollector -Chinese official number -The commonly accepted R0 of 2.6 among many epidemiologists -The Spanish Flu R0 of 1.8 -The weaponized virus R0 > 5 Starting from January 16th, all the patterns, except the one based on an Ro of 2.6 failed to apply. The R0 = 2.6 pattern still stands, for China. However, considering that China is still allowing free travel among all provinces except Tibet (least populated and most isolated one) and Hubei (the epicenter of the pandemic), the R0 will jump over 3 by Sunday, February 2nd. For the developed countries, with better hygiene, long history of flu (herd immunization) and high quality medical system, the R0 was skewed (for the time being) to 2.2. If the developed countries will not stop ALL travel by Sunday, Feb. 2nd, the R0 will jump to 2.6. Everyone can do their own math, applying an R0 = 2.2, for the develop countries, 2.4 for Asian countries and 2.6 for China, while adjusting the index for infection spread chance to 0.7-0.8. As an example 10 x 2.2 x 0.7, for developed countries and 10 x 2.2 x 0.8 for SE Asia, South and Central America and Africa. For those that don't want to do that, here is the infection spread, worldwide (except China mainland), starting with today, January 28th, with all the numbers adjusted : January 28th 00:00 GMT : Between 3,000 and 4,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 37-38 cases. January 29th, 00:00 GMT : Between 5,200 and 7,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 67-69 cases. January 30th, 00:00 GMT : Between 8,000 and 12,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 103-106 cases. January 31st, 00:00 GMT : 12,300 - 20,100 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 158 - 168 cases. February 1st, 00:00 GMT : 18,900 - 30,900 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 243 - 258 February 2nd, 00:00 GMT : 29,100 - 47,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 374 - 397. If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate.These are the numbers : February 3rd, 00:00 GMT : 48,000 - 78,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 617 - 655 February 4th, 00:00 GMT : 79,200 - 128,700 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 1,018 - 1,080. If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate.These are the numbers : February 5th, 00:00 GMT : 139,000 - 226,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 1,790 - 1,900. From this date on, the pandemic no longer can be contained, without full quarantine, at least for all major cities across the world. This will come with total economic collapse and the panic that will be widespread. The huge difference between the number of infected in my model, is because most populated countries are also underdeveloped, and the virus will affect much more people in India and SE Asia. If full or at last partial quarantine is not implemented by February 5th, in major cities across the world, the pandemic will spread as follow (adjusted for higher R0 and higher index for infection spread chance), with the mention that the numbers will be the median ones : Feb 6th :345,000 infected with 3,600 presenting symptoms Feb 7th :690,000 infected with 7,500 presenting symptoms Feb 8th : 1,435,000 / 15,600 Feb 9th : 2,980,000 / 27,456 Feb 10th: 6,240,000 / 57,100 Feb 11th: 12,979,000 / 118,100 Feb 12th: 27,990,000 / 245,600 Feb 13th: 58,220,000 / 509,600 Feb 14th:121,970,000 /1,060,000 Feb 15th:253,697,000 /2,204,800 From February 16th, multiple health systems across the world will collapse.Hospitals will be overcrowded and unable to test and treat most of the patients.The social fabric will completely collapse, and the governments, if they delayed the quarantines, will have no other choice but to lock-down hundreds of millions of people in major and large to medium cities, with hundreds of millions more self-isolating in smaller cities, towns and villages. There might be slight variations in my model, if some countries implement some travel restrictions here and there, some quarantines here and there...but anything except total quarantine is not going to work, but only delay the infection by mere DAYS. I am going to end with what matters the most, for my model to HOPEFULLY fail : FULL INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL MUST STOP BY FEB.3RD. FULL LOCAL TRAVEL IN AFFECTED COUNTRIES MUST STOP BY FEB. 5TH. If the above measures are not taking place, the pandemic will be catastrophic. Almost every single model from actual docs/agencies refutes yours. Don't want to be cocky or anything...but that means those models are wrong. Simply because they are made and approved by...guess who? The government. |
IF User ID: 73314314 United States 01/28/2020 04:17 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | From the beginning, I want to specify that my model is only for the infection rate. Not death rate, and not confirmed cases by the authorities and governments. It is a mathematical model, based on 4 separate patterns : Quoting: deplorable recollector -Chinese official number -The commonly accepted R0 of 2.6 among many epidemiologists -The Spanish Flu R0 of 1.8 -The weaponized virus R0 > 5 Starting from January 16th, all the patterns, except the one based on an Ro of 2.6 failed to apply. The R0 = 2.6 pattern still stands, for China. However, considering that China is still allowing free travel among all provinces except Tibet (least populated and most isolated one) and Hubei (the epicenter of the pandemic), the R0 will jump over 3 by Sunday, February 2nd. For the developed countries, with better hygiene, long history of flu (herd immunization) and high quality medical system, the R0 was skewed (for the time being) to 2.2. If the developed countries will not stop ALL travel by Sunday, Feb. 2nd, the R0 will jump to 2.6. Everyone can do their own math, applying an R0 = 2.2, for the develop countries, 2.4 for Asian countries and 2.6 for China, while adjusting the index for infection spread chance to 0.7-0.8. As an example 10 x 2.2 x 0.7, for developed countries and 10 x 2.2 x 0.8 for SE Asia, South and Central America and Africa. For those that don't want to do that, here is the infection spread, worldwide (except China mainland), starting with today, January 28th, with all the numbers adjusted : January 28th 00:00 GMT : Between 3,000 and 4,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 37-38 cases. January 29th, 00:00 GMT : Between 5,200 and 7,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 67-69 cases. January 30th, 00:00 GMT : Between 8,000 and 12,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 103-106 cases. January 31st, 00:00 GMT : 12,300 - 20,100 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 158 - 168 cases. February 1st, 00:00 GMT : 18,900 - 30,900 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 243 - 258 February 2nd, 00:00 GMT : 29,100 - 47,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 374 - 397. If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate.These are the numbers : February 3rd, 00:00 GMT : 48,000 - 78,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 617 - 655 February 4th, 00:00 GMT : 79,200 - 128,700 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 1,018 - 1,080. If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate.These are the numbers : February 5th, 00:00 GMT : 139,000 - 226,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 1,790 - 1,900. From this date on, the pandemic no longer can be contained, without full quarantine, at least for all major cities across the world. This will come with total economic collapse and the panic that will be widespread. The huge difference between the number of infected in my model, is because most populated countries are also underdeveloped, and the virus will affect much more people in India and SE Asia. If full or at last partial quarantine is not implemented by February 5th, in major cities across the world, the pandemic will spread as follow (adjusted for higher R0 and higher index for infection spread chance), with the mention that the numbers will be the median ones : Feb 6th :345,000 infected with 3,600 presenting symptoms Feb 7th :690,000 infected with 7,500 presenting symptoms Feb 8th : 1,435,000 / 15,600 Feb 9th : 2,980,000 / 27,456 Feb 10th: 6,240,000 / 57,100 Feb 11th: 12,979,000 / 118,100 Feb 12th: 27,990,000 / 245,600 Feb 13th: 58,220,000 / 509,600 Feb 14th:121,970,000 /1,060,000 Feb 15th:253,697,000 /2,204,800 From February 16th, multiple health systems across the world will collapse.Hospitals will be overcrowded and unable to test and treat most of the patients.The social fabric will completely collapse, and the governments, if they delayed the quarantines, will have no other choice but to lock-down hundreds of millions of people in major and large to medium cities, with hundreds of millions more self-isolating in smaller cities, towns and villages. There might be slight variations in my model, if some countries implement some travel restrictions here and there, some quarantines here and there...but anything except total quarantine is not going to work, but only delay the infection by mere DAYS. I am going to end with what matters the most, for my model to HOPEFULLY fail : FULL INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL MUST STOP BY FEB.3RD. FULL LOCAL TRAVEL IN AFFECTED COUNTRIES MUST STOP BY FEB. 5TH. If the above measures are not taking place, the pandemic will be catastrophic. WOW! Thank you for your post. At last someone with numbers to understand the ramifications. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 72593061 United States 01/28/2020 04:17 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | FULL INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL MUST STOP BY FEB.3RD. Quoting: deplorable recollector FULL LOCAL TRAVEL IN AFFECTED COUNTRIES MUST STOP BY FEB. 5TH. If the above measures are not taking place, the pandemic will be catastrophic. Agree wholeheartedly. I don't have the knowledge to extrapolate the numbers, but I fully believe there's a small window before this is full blown if nothing is done to close borders. I'm traveling in SoCal right now and last week I was considering extending my trip. After thinking it through, I realized it's better to leave as planned in 2 days before there's the potential of air traffic, especially international, being grounded. Told a few friends and they think I'm overestimating and being dramatic. I think in less than one month this will be either under control or a pandemic. Similar situation here. The absolute worst case would be stuck in some hotel in a place far from home with nothing in my wallet but plastic. Not this time. This isn’t a drill. |
Way too awake, maybe not User ID: 74788305 United States 01/28/2020 04:18 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | From the beginning, I want to specify that my model is only for the infection rate. Not death rate, and not confirmed cases by the authorities and governments. It is a mathematical model, based on 4 separate patterns : Quoting: deplorable recollector -Chinese official number -The commonly accepted R0 of 2.6 among many epidemiologists -The Spanish Flu R0 of 1.8 -The weaponized virus R0 > 5 Starting from January 16th, all the patterns, except the one based on an Ro of 2.6 failed to apply. The R0 = 2.6 pattern still stands, for China. However, considering that China is still allowing free travel among all provinces except Tibet (least populated and most isolated one) and Hubei (the epicenter of the pandemic), the R0 will jump over 3 by Sunday, February 2nd. For the developed countries, with better hygiene, long history of flu (herd immunization) and high quality medical system, the R0 was skewed (for the time being) to 2.2. If the developed countries will not stop ALL travel by Sunday, Feb. 2nd, the R0 will jump to 2.6. Everyone can do their own math, applying an R0 = 2.2, for the develop countries, 2.4 for Asian countries and 2.6 for China, while adjusting the index for infection spread chance to 0.7-0.8. As an example 10 x 2.2 x 0.7, for developed countries and 10 x 2.2 x 0.8 for SE Asia, South and Central America and Africa. For those that don't want to do that, here is the infection spread, worldwide (except China mainland), starting with today, January 28th, with all the numbers adjusted : January 28th 00:00 GMT : Between 3,000 and 4,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 37-38 cases. January 29th, 00:00 GMT : Between 5,200 and 7,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 67-69 cases. January 30th, 00:00 GMT : Between 8,000 and 12,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 103-106 cases. January 31st, 00:00 GMT : 12,300 - 20,100 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 158 - 168 cases. February 1st, 00:00 GMT : 18,900 - 30,900 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 243 - 258 February 2nd, 00:00 GMT : 29,100 - 47,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 374 - 397. If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate.These are the numbers : February 3rd, 00:00 GMT : 48,000 - 78,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 617 - 655 February 4th, 00:00 GMT : 79,200 - 128,700 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 1,018 - 1,080. If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate.These are the numbers : February 5th, 00:00 GMT : 139,000 - 226,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days). Presenting symptoms : 1,790 - 1,900. From this date on, the pandemic no longer can be contained, without full quarantine, at least for all major cities across the world. This will come with total economic collapse and the panic that will be widespread. The huge difference between the number of infected in my model, is because most populated countries are also underdeveloped, and the virus will affect much more people in India and SE Asia. If full or at last partial quarantine is not implemented by February 5th, in major cities across the world, the pandemic will spread as follow (adjusted for higher R0 and higher index for infection spread chance), with the mention that the numbers will be the median ones : Feb 6th :345,000 infected with 3,600 presenting symptoms Feb 7th :690,000 infected with 7,500 presenting symptoms Feb 8th : 1,435,000 / 15,600 Feb 9th : 2,980,000 / 27,456 Feb 10th: 6,240,000 / 57,100 Feb 11th: 12,979,000 / 118,100 Feb 12th: 27,990,000 / 245,600 Feb 13th: 58,220,000 / 509,600 Feb 14th:121,970,000 /1,060,000 Feb 15th:253,697,000 /2,204,800 From February 16th, multiple health systems across the world will collapse.Hospitals will be overcrowded and unable to test and treat most of the patients.The social fabric will completely collapse, and the governments, if they delayed the quarantines, will have no other choice but to lock-down hundreds of millions of people in major and large to medium cities, with hundreds of millions more self-isolating in smaller cities, towns and villages. There might be slight variations in my model, if some countries implement some travel restrictions here and there, some quarantines here and there...but anything except total quarantine is not going to work, but only delay the infection by mere DAYS. I am going to end with what matters the most, for my model to HOPEFULLY fail : FULL INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL MUST STOP BY FEB.3RD. FULL LOCAL TRAVEL IN AFFECTED COUNTRIES MUST STOP BY FEB. 5TH. If the above measures are not taking place, the pandemic will be catastrophic. Almost every single model from actual docs/agencies refutes yours. And you believe them? |