OP, if you may. What are your qualifications to publish this model outcome?
I want to use your data. More about the author will help a lot.
Please, thank you!
Quoting: Nonentity I am the author of the model.As for qualifications, they are irrelevant. The model is based on people who are (or should be) highly qualified.
It is nothing but a mathematical model, that used 4 different patterns, based on Spanish Flu, a Harvard epidemiologist R0 of 2.6, the Chinese official numbers and a theoretical weaponized virus.
All patterns but the one from Harvard failed to deliver, showing major errors the moment the cases outside China started to be announced.
The Harvard model also failed, but the error was minimal. Hence, I modified the Harvard model based on a R0 of 2.6 and 85% (or 0.8 modifier) infection chance, to a staggering R0 of 2.2, 2.4 and 2.6 with 0.7 and 0.8, considering the incipient stage of the pandemic outside China.
The R0 is going to increase from 2.2 to 2.6 and the modifier from 0.7 to 0.8 very quickly, in the next 5 days (by Feb 3rd.), because no measures to stop the virus spread are being taken.
The R0 is going to jump to 3 and above after Feb. 6th., again, because no measures are in place to stop the epidemic.
