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REPORT COPYRIGHT VIOLATION IN REPLY
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Message Subject
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WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
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Poster Handle
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Anonymous Coward |
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Post Content
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YES PLEASE!!!!
OP, your info is invaluable. Please don’t let the trolls discourage you. Those of us with an IQ higher than a beer can of Halcyon Daze malt liquor desperately WANT your insights.
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Quoting: Anonymous Coward 75214035 It's not about the trolls. It's about the model. I expect the number of confirmed cases to rise significantly next week, outside China. If they do not, I will rework the model, and the result will probably be that this virus is just not that bad outside China. And if it's not that bad, I no longer care about numbers...we dodged the bullet. The entire reason for my model is to see IF we're fucked or not. From the beginning I said that February 15th-16th are CRITICAL DATES. Basically, and I will put this as simple as I can, if by February 16th, the number of OFFICIALLY confirmed cases outside China is going to be around 800...it's BAD NEWS. My personal expectation is that the number of cases outside China, on February 16th will be close to 1,000. If we will have 800-1,000 or more confirmed cases at the end of February 16th, outside China, there is no point to update the model...it's SHTF at the beginning of March. Numbers won't change the outcome. Thanks for the great thread! That said, I've read your entire thread and maybe I'm missing something. Why is 800-1,000 cases OUTSIDE of China so significant? That's just a drop of water in an ocean compared to the billions of people who live OUTSIDE of China. Thanks for your time, patience, and consideration.  Those 800 confirmed cases are outside Africa, India, S&C.America, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and other countries (who do not have testing kits or don't report cases), which are about 4.2 billion people.There are 6.3 billion people outside China. So, 800 confirmed cases for about 2.1 billion people, which is about 1/3rd of the cases outside China. Hence, the real number of serious cases is actually 2,400, but only 800 are tested and confirmed usually 24-36 hrs. after testing. Now, serious cases are roughly 18% of the total SYMPTOMATIC cases. Which means that there are around 13,300 SYMPTOMATIC cases outside China, with 82% of them being mild cases and confused with a light flu, and will not go to a hospital, hence, they are undetected and untested and, ofc, not confirmed...but they ARE 13,300 REAL people. Now, in order to have 13,300 SYMPTOMATIC cases, who are out of incubation phase which is usually 14 days, according to latest data, applying a 2.2 denominator (the R0) for each "hop", and a "hop" is maximum 24 hrs. (it is usually less) it means that there are 2.2 x 2.2 (13 times in row) = 11,165 infected but ASYMPTOMATIC people for 1 of the each 13,300 SYMPTOMATIC cases.Which is 11,165 x 13,300, roughly 148,500,000 infected people in total (asymptomatic+mild cases+serious cases) OUTSIDE CHINA.Yes, 800 is a drop in an ocean...the problem is that those 800 confirmed cases cannot exist if there aren't 148,5 MILLION infected behind them.I hope I made myself understood. you couldnt have laid it out better! thank you! i really believe this is gonna happen. all is gonna change!
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