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WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month

 
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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10/22/2020 04:27 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
So are we looking at the UK losing control by the end of October?
 Quoting: The Gathering Storm


100%.
Anonymous Coward
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10/22/2020 04:28 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Paralysis hits Spain on what to do with out of control pandemic.

[link to www.abc.net.au (secure)]
Anonymous Coward
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10/22/2020 04:29 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
You leave out all the new advancements in medicine and their effect on the virus. Advancements like Regeneron, Inhaled Cortico-Steroids, Ivermectin, Doxycycline, Zpac, plasma etc. Your post is FULL of fear mongering and conjecture. The situations evolving all the time. Stats that were accurate last month are USELESS today. I dont know the future and niether do you. I do however think we will reach heard immunity sometime next year and cases will start to decline then because there are a lot of people that have already had Covid but never reported it.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 43590859


You must be new. Everything DR has posted since mid January has been 100%. Herd immunity? Right.
deplorable recollector  (OP)

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10/22/2020 04:30 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
I am going to post the update earlier than usual, because I have some shit to do in the evening.


This update is largely about numbers.


After looking at pretty much every significant country, from the early onset of the pandemic, I managed to establish a theoretical correlation between official numbers, real numbers, number of tests, the thresholds that are reached in positivity, what measures have to be taken and when.


Obviously there will be differences between countries, because every country have its specifics, but generally speaking, I think I managed to get to numbers that can and should be considered as a guideline.


Back in the Spring, based on my model, the real number of infected people was 8 to 10 times (as a median number) bigger then the official number of cases, mainly because the testing was pretty damn low.


Since then, I managed to calculate a much closer value to reality, that is different for each threshold of positivity.


I have set 6 thresholds : 1%, 3%, 5%, 10%, 15% and 20% of positive tests, in the official number of tests.


Another number that I have calculated (as a minimum required) is the number of tests that have to be done, in order to detect as many cases as possible, and have some control on the spread.


That number is 1,000 tests per 1,000,000 people per day. This number is enough up to a 3% positivity, and in certain countries, with good contact tracing, it is enough even up to 5% positivity.

Up to 3% positivity, all things should be normal, and masks should be RECOMMENDED in enclosed spaces (not homes, nurseries, schools, etc.), like workplaces, shops, etc.

Once a country reaches 3% positivity, and doesn't have a good contact tracing capability (the vast majority of countries don't), the number of tests should be increased to 1,500 / 1 mil. people / day.

Masks should be mandatory, not recommended, events and gatherings should be limited to under 100 people outdoors and 50 indoors, schools should prepare for on-line classes.


Once a country reaches 5% positivity, the testing should increase to 2,000 / 1 mil. people / day, to keep the pace with the infection.

Masks should be mandatory in workplaces and schools, as well as all the other places mentioned earlier. Bars, pubs, restaurants capacity should be capped to 50% inside. Transport should be also limited, but it is impossible to do it in a large urban area.

Also, when reaching 5% positivity, most testing should be done in large urban areas, for obvious reasons.


The threshold of 5% positivity is probably the most important one, and if this threshold is maintained or rises, in the conditions of 2,000 tests / 1 mil. people / day, the country that is in this position, should prepare for harsher restrictions.

At 5%, contact tracing becomes difficult, for most countries.


If the measures I have mentioned earlier do not work (for various reasons), and the country is heading to 10% positivity in official testing, the control over the spread is about to be lost.

Simultaneously, when reaching 10%, a country should do the following :

-All measures in place will be maintained.
-Schools should close, nation-wide.
-Testing capacity increased to at least 2,500 tests / 1 mil. people / day. 3,000 is better, but pretty damn hard to do for most countries.
-Bars, pubs, restaurants, hair and nail saloons, other non-essentials should close until the positivity drop again to 5% or bellow. Not 2 weeks, not 17 days, not any arbitrary numbers some politicians come up with.
-All events and gatherings (including religious) should be suspended.
-International and national travel limited to essential travel only.


To understand what 10% positivity means, at 2,500 tests / 1 mil. people, I will use the U.S. and Czechia as examples. A big country vs a small country, but not as small as to miss certain specifics (like large urban areas, tourism, international travel connections, etc.).

Both the U.S. and Czechia are capable, at this moment, to make 3,000 tests / 1 mil. people / day, the U.S. with 975,000 tests / day and Czechia with roughly 30,000 tests / day.


Now I will specify the correlation between the positivity from official tests and the real number of infected, for the situation where we are NOW, and not in the spring.

At 1% positivity in official testing, the real number is just slightly higher. Contact tracing is a non-issue.

At 3%, the real number is significantly higher, but not double then offcial number of cases. Contact tracing, as long as the number of tests is increased to 1,500/ 1 mil./ day is a non-issue.

At 5%, the real number of infected is double or higher, as long as the number of tests is reaching 2,000 / 1 mil. / day. If it's less, contact tracing becomes an issue. Lots of cases are going undetected.

At 10%, the real number is about 3 times higher, as long as the number of tests is 2,500-3,000 / 1 mil. / day. Contact tracing becomes difficult for every country, no matter which country it is.


Now, on the U.S. and Czechia example, when they reach 10% positivity in official testing, and the real numbers.

The U.S. would have 97.5k official cases / day, Czechia 3,000 cases / day. The real number of infected would be close to 300k for the U.S. and 9k for Czechia.

Assuming a good contact tracing, assuming that the required measures are in place and assuming that a large part of the population do abide, the trend will be reversed in 2 to 3 weeks.

Czechia did not took the necessary measures when they reached 3,000 cases / day ( 9,000 in reality). They did it at almost 10k cases / day, and only implemented PARTIALLY the measures that should have in place.

Assuming a contact tracing that is able to track the ALL the contacts of 3,000 official cases, and that number is usually 4-5 contacts / case / 2 weeks, as a median numbers, Czechia would be capable to track up to 15k people, related to those 3,000 cases they found.

However, they will MISS another 6,000 cases from testing, and those 6,000 cases contacts would amount to 24-30k people, that Czechia won't detect...because they are contacts of undetected cases through official testing.


At 10% positivity, assuming 3,000 tests / 1 mil. / day, a country, ANY country contact tracing become irrelevant. The majority of the infected people are not tested, and the contacts of the official cases are significantly less that the real number of contacts.


No wonder Czechia didn't managed to stop their trend, because the measures that should have been in place at 10% positivity, were barely implemented at 20% positivity.


The 10% threshold is the second most important one.

The 5% one is when the trend CAN BE REVERSED quickly enough. At 10%, the trend is basically impossible to reverse, without the necessary measures, and EVERY COUNTRY that is big enough (over 7-8 million people) and have at least a major urban area (1 million or over), and doesn't implement those measures, will reach 15% positivity in a matter of weeks.


When reaching 15% positivity, the control over the pandemic is lost. If measures are in place, for each threshold, and testing is at 3,000 / 1 mil. / day, with a good contact tracing, no country should ever reach 10%.


The issue is that MOST countries do not have the capability to test 3,000 / 1 mil. / day, and those that have, will most likely lose the control of the virus because contact tracing becomes irrelevant.


What happens at 15% positivity? Can things be reversed?

Yes, they can, but a FULL LOCK-DOWN should be in place, all travel should be stopped, schools closed, all services, pubs, restaurants, gyms, shops, etc. closed, except essential, medical, security, fire department and food production and food related shops.


At 15% positivity, the real number of infected is almost 4 times higher, the testing capability should reach 4,000 tests / 1 mil. people / day (almost no country can do this at this moment), contact tracing should be maximized , and even if it is almost irrelevant, it will make a difference, long term, under a full lock-down.


There are no half measures now. 15% positivity is full lock-down time. Any other measures will only SLIGHTLY postpone reaching the 20% positivity. Maybe get couple day more, because another thing that happens at 15% positivity, and full lock-downs aren't in place, is that the spread becomes exponential.

The medical system will start to collapse in many places, especially large urban areas.


To understand why testing should keep pace with the spread, just look at Argentina. They were under a soft lock-down for 4 months or so...but their testing capacity barely increased.

They reached 50% and over positivity, because their testing was virtually the same. Contact tracing...forget about it. It's already lost at 15%, it is completely lost at 50%.

They decided to drop the lock-downs, because "it didn't worked". Ofc it didn't, because it WAS NOT a lock-down.

Chile did a proper lock-down...and it worked, while being basically like Argentina in terms of testing and contact tracing.


At 20% positivity, regardless of the number of tests / day, the control over the spread of the virus is totally lost. The only way out is a full lock-down. A full lock-down should be in place at 15% anyway, but even if the government CHOSE to avoid it this time, it should be in place at 20%, regardless.


So, when a country will totally lose the control over the epidemic?

At 20%.



At 20%, it matter not how many people you test. It can be 10, or 100,000,000. It doesn't change anything.


The medical system will collapse at 20%.


TECHNICALLY peaking, a medical system collapses when all hospitals are full. If we wanna talk about technicalities, no medical system will EVER collapse. There will always be some free beds in some god forsaken town.

But if we want to talk reality, the moment a country have their hospitals ICU full, in major urban areas, their medical system IS COLLAPSED.

The medical staff can only take care, PROPERLY, of a set number of patients. When that number is passed, the hospital in the matter IS COLLAPSED.

We are not robots. We can only do so much. And under constant pressure, the medical staff will crack, some will get sick, some hospitals will have outbreaks and close, etc. etc.



When to worry?

When positivity reaches 10%?

When to know that things are about to pop?

When positivity reaches 15%.

When to prepare for the worst?

No later then when positivity reaches 20%.



Each one of you can look at their own country. The testing, the positivity, the measures, and draw your own conclusion.


What I see now in Europe is that by the end of this week, about half of Europe will lose control of the pandemic, and the other half will lose it by the end of this month.


Things are bad now...wait until next week.


And if you are "lucky" to live until next week...just wait and see what comes once November is here, because they, the governments, TPTB, the elites, Reptilians, whoever you think rules us, CHOSE TO POSTPONE FULL LOCK-DOWNS until 30% positivity, in the HOPE that it won't get there, or if it does get there, will start to subside, and the economy will be saved.


They are wrong. It won't stop at 30%, it won't subside, the medical systems will collapse, the society will start to crack...and the economy will STILL NOT BE SAVED.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


You leave out all the new advancements in medicine and their effect on the virus. Advancements like Regeneron, Inhaled Cortico-Steroids, Ivermectin, Doxycycline, Zpac, plasma etc. Your post is FULL of fear mongering and conjecture. The situations evolving all the time. Stats that were accurate last month are USELESS today. I dont know the future and niether do you. I do however think we will reach heard immunity sometime next year and cases will start to decline then because there are a lot of people that have already had Covid but never reported it.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 43590859



All your so-called treatments are ineffective, from HCQ, to Invermectin to Remdesivir to Regeneron. ALL have very limited effects.

And here is what you, and other idiots don't UNDERSTAND :

When hospitals are FULL (and many are already in Europe), it doesn't matter : you CAN'T BE TREATED because THERE IS NO BED FOR YOU.


Or maybe, you, being an idiot, thinks that Covid-19 treatment can be taken AT HOME?


Get the fuck out of here, numbnutt.
Covid19sars2.0

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10/22/2020 04:44 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
In Bulgaria we are already toast before it even started.

Yesterday we were at 17% positivity rate.

Our government are now begging for medical students to go help in the hospitals because there is no more trained staff available to take care of the current number of patients.

And we are just at the start of the winter season and this whole ordeal. The past few days there's been more and more cases of people dying because they can't be admitted into a hospital due to the problems with capacity in the past few days.

And as if it wasn't already bad, more and more trained medical staff are getting sick, leaving due to exhaustion, and some even dying. A few days ago we lost Prof. Georgi Hubchev who was named doctor of the year in 2019. If the trend continues, pretty soon there will be almost no specialists to treat and help people.

And after everything said above, there are STILL no real measures to speak of for curbing the spread here even at 17% positivity rate. The current guidelines is still just "wear your mask and wash your hands". All schools, restaurants and clubs are still open as if everything is fine and dandy.

wtf
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 58674618


So desperate.

[link to sofiaglobe.com (secure)]

Keep safe
I apologise for my spelling and grammar, Dyslexia is a biatch.

But add on MS and its a whole new world of magic spelling and rambling.

We all love green, thanks in advance :)

So thats how it is, deal with it or keep walking.

We all love green. Thanks in advance :)
Anonymous Coward
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10/22/2020 05:11 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
For those that are as ready as they will be........the deniers are in for mental breakdowns.... unfortunately.

Don’t stop communicating just because they kick and spit. It ain’t getting better.
Anonymous Coward
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10/22/2020 05:17 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Things are bad now...wait until next week.


And if you are "lucky" to live until next week...just wait and see what comes once November is here
, because they, the governments, TPTB, the elites, Reptilians, whoever you think rules us, CHOSE TO POSTPONE FULL LOCK-DOWNS until 30% positivity, in the HOPE that it won't get there, or if it does get there, will start to subside, and the economy will be saved.


They are wrong. It won't stop at 30%, it won't subside, the medical systems will collapse, the society will start to crack...and the economy will STILL NOT BE SAVED.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


What are you talking about !? 50% of the people hospitalized here are people who tested positive but are assymptomatic.

Everything is almost back to normal already...

You are delusional. You said 4 months ago that society would collapse in the summer, now you are saying in the fall... I'm sure soon enough it will be in the winter, then in 2021, then 2022... your ''model'' has been wrong since the beginning.

bsflag
 Quoting: The Only

hesright

Nothing but doom since April in this thread.

Maybe go outside. We're not all dead.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79311309


You go down to your local hospital. Stand in the hall and wait for that kid who is dressed in a uniform. When he/she stops to answer your question, take note that they are maybe 17 years old, haven't finished school and are living on dreams.

They are the floor's first line of defense. The rest of the crew are exhausted and cannot be found. Hospitals have played their staffing to tight for years. They do not have enough staff on a good day. The workers who work don't last long due to job hazards. They successfully kept the unions out by creating their own associations, slight of hands for the employees.

Now the admissions don't stop and the already short handed staff slap O2 on, start an IV and get papers signed.

The patient may not see another nurse for 12 hours.

Now come back and post what you see and think.

I can tell you who is delusional.
Uncle of an Uncle

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10/22/2020 05:35 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
I am going to post the update earlier than usual, because I have some shit to do in the evening.


This update is largely about numbers.


After looking at pretty much every significant country, from the early onset of the pandemic, I managed to establish a theoretical correlation between official numbers, real numbers, number of tests, the thresholds that are reached in positivity, what measures have to be taken and when.


Obviously there will be differences between countries, because every country have its specifics, but generally speaking, I think I managed to get to numbers that can and should be considered as a guideline.


Back in the Spring, based on my model, the real number of infected people was 8 to 10 times (as a median number) bigger then the official number of cases, mainly because the testing was pretty damn low.


Since then, I managed to calculate a much closer value to reality, that is different for each threshold of positivity.


I have set 6 thresholds : 1%, 3%, 5%, 10%, 15% and 20% of positive tests, in the official number of tests.


Another number that I have calculated (as a minimum required) is the number of tests that have to be done, in order to detect as many cases as possible, and have some control on the spread.


That number is 1,000 tests per 1,000,000 people per day. This number is enough up to a 3% positivity, and in certain countries, with good contact tracing, it is enough even up to 5% positivity.

Up to 3% positivity, all things should be normal, and masks should be RECOMMENDED in enclosed spaces (not homes, nurseries, schools, etc.), like workplaces, shops, etc.

Once a country reaches 3% positivity, and doesn't have a good contact tracing capability (the vast majority of countries don't), the number of tests should be increased to 1,500 / 1 mil. people / day.

Masks should be mandatory, not recommended, events and gatherings should be limited to under 100 people outdoors and 50 indoors, schools should prepare for on-line classes.


Once a country reaches 5% positivity, the testing should increase to 2,000 / 1 mil. people / day, to keep the pace with the infection.

Masks should be mandatory in workplaces and schools, as well as all the other places mentioned earlier. Bars, pubs, restaurants capacity should be capped to 50% inside. Transport should be also limited, but it is impossible to do it in a large urban area.

Also, when reaching 5% positivity, most testing should be done in large urban areas, for obvious reasons.


The threshold of 5% positivity is probably the most important one, and if this threshold is maintained or rises, in the conditions of 2,000 tests / 1 mil. people / day, the country that is in this position, should prepare for harsher restrictions.

At 5%, contact tracing becomes difficult, for most countries.


If the measures I have mentioned earlier do not work (for various reasons), and the country is heading to 10% positivity in official testing, the control over the spread is about to be lost.

Simultaneously, when reaching 10%, a country should do the following :

-All measures in place will be maintained.
-Schools should close, nation-wide.
-Testing capacity increased to at least 2,500 tests / 1 mil. people / day. 3,000 is better, but pretty damn hard to do for most countries.
-Bars, pubs, restaurants, hair and nail saloons, other non-essentials should close until the positivity drop again to 5% or bellow. Not 2 weeks, not 17 days, not any arbitrary numbers some politicians come up with.
-All events and gatherings (including religious) should be suspended.
-International and national travel limited to essential travel only.


To understand what 10% positivity means, at 2,500 tests / 1 mil. people, I will use the U.S. and Czechia as examples. A big country vs a small country, but not as small as to miss certain specifics (like large urban areas, tourism, international travel connections, etc.).

Both the U.S. and Czechia are capable, at this moment, to make 3,000 tests / 1 mil. people / day, the U.S. with 975,000 tests / day and Czechia with roughly 30,000 tests / day.


Now I will specify the correlation between the positivity from official tests and the real number of infected, for the situation where we are NOW, and not in the spring.

At 1% positivity in official testing, the real number is just slightly higher. Contact tracing is a non-issue.

At 3%, the real number is significantly higher, but not double then offcial number of cases. Contact tracing, as long as the number of tests is increased to 1,500/ 1 mil./ day is a non-issue.

At 5%, the real number of infected is double or higher, as long as the number of tests is reaching 2,000 / 1 mil. / day. If it's less, contact tracing becomes an issue. Lots of cases are going undetected.

At 10%, the real number is about 3 times higher, as long as the number of tests is 2,500-3,000 / 1 mil. / day. Contact tracing becomes difficult for every country, no matter which country it is.


Now, on the U.S. and Czechia example, when they reach 10% positivity in official testing, and the real numbers.

The U.S. would have 97.5k official cases / day, Czechia 3,000 cases / day. The real number of infected would be close to 300k for the U.S. and 9k for Czechia.

Assuming a good contact tracing, assuming that the required measures are in place and assuming that a large part of the population do abide, the trend will be reversed in 2 to 3 weeks.

Czechia did not took the necessary measures when they reached 3,000 cases / day ( 9,000 in reality). They did it at almost 10k cases / day, and only implemented PARTIALLY the measures that should have in place.

Assuming a contact tracing that is able to track the ALL the contacts of 3,000 official cases, and that number is usually 4-5 contacts / case / 2 weeks, as a median numbers, Czechia would be capable to track up to 15k people, related to those 3,000 cases they found.

However, they will MISS another 6,000 cases from testing, and those 6,000 cases contacts would amount to 24-30k people, that Czechia won't detect...because they are contacts of undetected cases through official testing.


At 10% positivity, assuming 3,000 tests / 1 mil. / day, a country, ANY country contact tracing become irrelevant. The majority of the infected people are not tested, and the contacts of the official cases are significantly less that the real number of contacts.


No wonder Czechia didn't managed to stop their trend, because the measures that should have been in place at 10% positivity, were barely implemented at 20% positivity.


The 10% threshold is the second most important one.

The 5% one is when the trend CAN BE REVERSED quickly enough. At 10%, the trend is basically impossible to reverse, without the necessary measures, and EVERY COUNTRY that is big enough (over 7-8 million people) and have at least a major urban area (1 million or over), and doesn't implement those measures, will reach 15% positivity in a matter of weeks.


When reaching 15% positivity, the control over the pandemic is lost. If measures are in place, for each threshold, and testing is at 3,000 / 1 mil. / day, with a good contact tracing, no country should ever reach 10%.


The issue is that MOST countries do not have the capability to test 3,000 / 1 mil. / day, and those that have, will most likely lose the control of the virus because contact tracing becomes irrelevant.


What happens at 15% positivity? Can things be reversed?

Yes, they can, but a FULL LOCK-DOWN should be in place, all travel should be stopped, schools closed, all services, pubs, restaurants, gyms, shops, etc. closed, except essential, medical, security, fire department and food production and food related shops.


At 15% positivity, the real number of infected is almost 4 times higher, the testing capability should reach 4,000 tests / 1 mil. people / day (almost no country can do this at this moment), contact tracing should be maximized , and even if it is almost irrelevant, it will make a difference, long term, under a full lock-down.


There are no half measures now. 15% positivity is full lock-down time. Any other measures will only SLIGHTLY postpone reaching the 20% positivity. Maybe get couple day more, because another thing that happens at 15% positivity, and full lock-downs aren't in place, is that the spread becomes exponential.

The medical system will start to collapse in many places, especially large urban areas.


To understand why testing should keep pace with the spread, just look at Argentina. They were under a soft lock-down for 4 months or so...but their testing capacity barely increased.

They reached 50% and over positivity, because their testing was virtually the same. Contact tracing...forget about it. It's already lost at 15%, it is completely lost at 50%.

They decided to drop the lock-downs, because "it didn't worked". Ofc it didn't, because it WAS NOT a lock-down.

Chile did a proper lock-down...and it worked, while being basically like Argentina in terms of testing and contact tracing.


At 20% positivity, regardless of the number of tests / day, the control over the spread of the virus is totally lost. The only way out is a full lock-down. A full lock-down should be in place at 15% anyway, but even if the government CHOSE to avoid it this time, it should be in place at 20%, regardless.


So, when a country will totally lose the control over the epidemic?

At 20%.



At 20%, it matter not how many people you test. It can be 10, or 100,000,000. It doesn't change anything.


The medical system will collapse at 20%.


TECHNICALLY peaking, a medical system collapses when all hospitals are full. If we wanna talk about technicalities, no medical system will EVER collapse. There will always be some free beds in some god forsaken town.

But if we want to talk reality, the moment a country have their hospitals ICU full, in major urban areas, their medical system IS COLLAPSED.

The medical staff can only take care, PROPERLY, of a set number of patients. When that number is passed, the hospital in the matter IS COLLAPSED.

We are not robots. We can only do so much. And under constant pressure, the medical staff will crack, some will get sick, some hospitals will have outbreaks and close, etc. etc.



When to worry?

When positivity reaches 10%?

When to know that things are about to pop?

When positivity reaches 15%.

When to prepare for the worst?

No later then when positivity reaches 20%.



Each one of you can look at their own country. The testing, the positivity, the measures, and draw your own conclusion.


What I see now in Europe is that by the end of this week, about half of Europe will lose control of the pandemic, and the other half will lose it by the end of this month.


Things are bad now...wait until next week.


And if you are "lucky" to live until next week...just wait and see what comes once November is here, because they, the governments, TPTB, the elites, Reptilians, whoever you think rules us, CHOSE TO POSTPONE FULL LOCK-DOWNS until 30% positivity, in the HOPE that it won't get there, or if it does get there, will start to subside, and the economy will be saved.


They are wrong. It won't stop at 30%, it won't subside, the medical systems will collapse, the society will start to crack...and the economy will STILL NOT BE SAVED.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


You leave out all the new advancements in medicine and their effect on the virus. Advancements like Regeneron, Inhaled Cortico-Steroids, Ivermectin, Doxycycline, Zpac, plasma etc. Your post is FULL of fear mongering and conjecture. The situations evolving all the time. Stats that were accurate last month are USELESS today. I dont know the future and niether do you. I do however think we will reach heard immunity sometime next year and cases will start to decline then because there are a lot of people that have already had Covid but never reported it.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 43590859


:rere23:
Uncle of an Uncle
Uncle of an Uncle

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10/22/2020 05:42 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Things are bad now...wait until next week.


And if you are "lucky" to live until next week...just wait and see what comes once November is here
, because they, the governments, TPTB, the elites, Reptilians, whoever you think rules us, CHOSE TO POSTPONE FULL LOCK-DOWNS until 30% positivity, in the HOPE that it won't get there, or if it does get there, will start to subside, and the economy will be saved.


They are wrong. It won't stop at 30%, it won't subside, the medical systems will collapse, the society will start to crack...and the economy will STILL NOT BE SAVED.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


What are you talking about !? 50% of the people hospitalized here are people who tested positive but are assymptomatic.

Everything is almost back to normal already...

You are delusional. You said 4 months ago that society would collapse in the summer, now you are saying in the fall... I'm sure soon enough it will be in the winter, then in 2021, then 2022... your ''model'' has been wrong since the beginning.

bsflag
 Quoting: The Only


50% of the people hospitalized here are people who tested positive but are assymptomatic.

This is 100% bullshit! No hospitals are utilizing rooms for "ASSYMPTOMATIC" covid patients. I'm a healthcare worker and know better.

Please do tell us exactly which hospital is doing this...
I'll call and ask them myself. Because no one on the planet is doing that.
Uncle of an Uncle
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
I hope everyone is ready, because the 2nd lockdown is the final one.

They have all the kinks worked out from the first, and the Oregon vaccine plan is the template that's going to be implemented all over soon after.
Covid19sars2.0

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10/22/2020 05:54 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
[link to mobile.twitter.com (secure)]


Are the UK playing the spanish numbers game.

To see a drop in posative like that.
I apologise for my spelling and grammar, Dyslexia is a biatch.

But add on MS and its a whole new world of magic spelling and rambling.

We all love green, thanks in advance :)

So thats how it is, deal with it or keep walking.

We all love green. Thanks in advance :)
Anonymous Coward
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
[link to mobile.twitter.com (secure)]


Are the UK playing the spanish numbers game.

To see a drop in posative like that.
 Quoting: Covid19sars2.0


In the US too.

Dancers.
Anonymous Coward
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10/22/2020 06:07 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
France

The incidence rate in Roubaix(near Belgium Border) is 1,135 COVID19 cases per 100,000 inhabitants despite the closure of gyms and bars. Positivity of the tests: 22%
Anonymous Coward
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10/22/2020 06:10 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Things are bad now...wait until next week.


And if you are "lucky" to live until next week...just wait and see what comes once November is here
, because they, the governments, TPTB, the elites, Reptilians, whoever you think rules us, CHOSE TO POSTPONE FULL LOCK-DOWNS until 30% positivity, in the HOPE that it won't get there, or if it does get there, will start to subside, and the economy will be saved.


They are wrong. It won't stop at 30%, it won't subside, the medical systems will collapse, the society will start to crack...and the economy will STILL NOT BE SAVED.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


What are you talking about !? 50% of the people hospitalized here are people who tested positive but are assymptomatic.

Everything is almost back to normal already...

You are delusional. You said 4 months ago that society would collapse in the summer, now you are saying in the fall... I'm sure soon enough it will be in the winter, then in 2021, then 2022... your ''model'' has been wrong since the beginning.

bsflag
 Quoting: The Only


50% of the people hospitalized here are people who tested positive but are assymptomatic.

This is 100% bullshit! No hospitals are utilizing rooms for "ASSYMPTOMATIC" covid patients. I'm a healthcare worker and know better.

Please do tell us exactly which hospital is doing this...
I'll call and ask them myself. Because no one on the planet is doing that.
 Quoting: Uncle of an Uncle


This video is the testimony of an asymptomatic Italian in China. Mandatory quarantine in the hospital

Anonymous Coward
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10/22/2020 06:21 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Just a note about so called "Contact tracing". My niece, who, like many others in her freshmen college class got the virus came home and self quarantined for 14 days at home after getting cold symptoms and testing positive. No one else in the house got sick. A week or so later a "telemarketer" type called up and unprofessionally introduced himself wanting to where she had been and with whom she had come in contact with. They hung up on the moron, no follow up. So contact tracing in Georgia, USA is a joke.
Anonymous Coward
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10/22/2020 06:34 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Just a note about so called "Contact tracing". My niece, who, like many others in her freshmen college class got the virus came home and self quarantined for 14 days at home after getting cold symptoms and testing positive. No one else in the house got sick. A week or so later a "telemarketer" type called up and unprofessionally introduced himself wanting to where she had been and with whom she had come in contact with. They hung up on the moron, no follow up. So contact tracing in Georgia, USA is a joke.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 14052223


oops
Anonymous Coward
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10/22/2020 06:50 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Things are bad now...wait until next week.


And if you are "lucky" to live until next week...just wait and see what comes once November is here
, because they, the governments, TPTB, the elites, Reptilians, whoever you think rules us, CHOSE TO POSTPONE FULL LOCK-DOWNS until 30% positivity, in the HOPE that it won't get there, or if it does get there, will start to subside, and the economy will be saved.


They are wrong. It won't stop at 30%, it won't subside, the medical systems will collapse, the society will start to crack...and the economy will STILL NOT BE SAVED.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


What are you talking about !? 50% of the people hospitalized here are people who tested positive but are assymptomatic.

Everything is almost back to normal already...

You are delusional. You said 4 months ago that society would collapse in the summer, now you are saying in the fall... I'm sure soon enough it will be in the winter, then in 2021, then 2022... your ''model'' has been wrong since the beginning.

bsflag
 Quoting: The Only

hesright

Nothing but doom since April in this thread.

Maybe go outside. We're not all dead.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79311309


You go down to your local hospital. Stand in the hall and wait for that kid who is dressed in a uniform. When he/she stops to answer your question, take note that they are maybe 17 years old, haven't finished school and are living on dreams.

They are the floor's first line of defense. The rest of the crew are exhausted and cannot be found. Hospitals have played their staffing to tight for years. They do not have enough staff on a good day. The workers who work don't last long due to job hazards. They successfully kept the unions out by creating their own associations, slight of hands for the employees.

Now the admissions don't stop and the already short handed staff slap O2 on, start an IV and get papers signed.

The patient may not see another nurse for 12 hours.

Now come back and post what you see and think.

I can tell you who is delusional.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 75535013



I mean, doesn't really seem like that in the real world. Maybe on ABC or CBS or whatever.

[imgur] [link to i.imgur.com (secure)]
Anonymous Coward
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10/22/2020 08:28 PM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
So are we looking at the UK losing control by the end of October?
 Quoting: The Gathering Storm


Not just UK, but practically the whole Europe.
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10/23/2020 12:30 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Ireland's government is considering going back into a full national lockdown for six weeks, Sky News understands.

Sky's Ireland correspondent Stephen Murphy called it
a "surprise move".

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79471260

Of course, it's the MSM.
Anonymous Coward
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10/23/2020 12:37 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
France

The incidence rate in Roubaix(near Belgium Border) is 1,135 COVID19 cases per 100,000 inhabitants despite the closure of gyms and bars. Positivity of the tests: 22%

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79471260

THIS IS EVIDENCE THERE HAVE BEEN SUPERSPRADER EVENTS GOING ON.

This is all that's needed. You can close anything you want.
Anonymous Coward
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10/23/2020 12:43 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
VERY IMPORTANT UPDATE :



Important notes :

1.Testing kits are not reliable
2.African countries, India, South and Central America countries, Eastern Europe countries, Pakistan, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Cambodia, other SE Asian countries, all former Soviet republics, most Middle East either don't have testing kits, laboratories or simply are unable/unwilling to detect/confirm the COVID19 cases.
About 70% of the population outside China belong to the above countries - cca. 4.4 billion people, labeled as Category B countries.
3.Western Europe, Japan, the U.S., South Korea, Australia, New Zeeland, Singapore are most likely not confirming COVID19 cases to postpone the panic and prop the markets.
About 30% of the population outside China belong to the above countries - cca. 1.9 billion people, labeled as Category A countries.
4.Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau are considered as a part of the countries and cities outside China.

5.Confirmed cases are still announced the day after the testing is done (24hr lag).

The model is based on a number of 2,000-2,500 infected people outside China, on January 28th, with an infection rate that is doubling every 2.5 days.

Los Alamos Labs study, peer reviewed, acknowledges an infection rate doubling every 2.4 days..

[link to arxiv.org (secure)]

The novel coronavirus (2019‐nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread
widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2
to 2.7.
(from the study).

The previous model was based on an R0 of 2.4-2.6, with a 70-80% contagion chance, which resulted in an infection rate that was doubling every 22 hrs.. I was using the data that was known at that point.

World population outside China, with their respective share of infected cases (higher for India and Africa) :
India : 1,400,000,000 - (22,29%) - infected share: 27%
Africa : 1,216,000,000 - (19.35%) - infected share: 23%
North America : 368,000,000 - 5,85% : infected share: 5%
Central America + South America : 608,000,000 - 9.68% - infected share: 9%
Europe : 747,000,000 - 11.90% - infected share: 9%
Asia (minus China and India) : 1,900,000 - 30.25% - infected share: 27%


January(infected people):
28th : 2,000-2,500
29th : 3,200-4,000
30th : 4,400-5,500
31st : 5,600-7,000

February(infected people):
1st : 6,800-8,500
2nd : 8,000-10,000
3rd : 12,800-16,000

4th : 17,600-22,000
Presenting symptoms : 1,000-1,250
Serious/critical cases (18%): 202.

5th : 22,400-28,000
Presenting symptoms : 1,600-2,000

6th : 27,200-34,000 (275 confirmed, 20 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 2,200-2,750

7th : 32,000-40,000 (327 confirmed, 61 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 2,800-3,500
Serious/critical cases (18%): 567.

8th : 51,200-64,000 (354 confirmed, 64 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 3,400-4,250

9th : 70,400-88,000 (379 confirmed, 70 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 4,000-5,000

10th : 89,600-112,000 (461 confirmed, 135 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 6,400-8,000
Serious/critical cases (18%): 1,296.

11th : 108,800-136,000 (517 confirmed, 174 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 8,800-11,000 (+3,485 added from the staggered numbers from previous 7 days), for a median number of 13,355 for this day.
Serious/critical cases (18%): 2,403.

12th : 128,000-160,000 (523 confirmed, 174 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 11,200-14,000

13th : 204,800-256,000 (586 confirmed, 218 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 13,600-17,000
Serious/critical cases (18%): 2,754.

14th : 281,600-352,000 (608 confirmed, 218 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 16,000-20,000

15th : 358,400-448,000 (697 confirmed, 285 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 26,100-32,000

16th : 435,200-544,000 (781 confirmed, 355 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 35,200-44,000
Serious/critical cases (18%): 7,128.

17th : 512,000-640,000(896 confirmed, 454 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 44,800-56,000

18th : 819,000-1,024,000(999 confirmed, 542 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 54,400-68,000 (+20,048 added from the staggered numbers from previous 7 days), for a median number of 81,248 for this day.
Serious/critical cases (18%): 14,624.

19th : 1,126,000-1,408,000(1,116 confirmed, 621 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 64,000-80,000

20th : 1,433,000-1,792,000(1,198 confirmed, 634 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 102,400-128,000

21st : 1,740,000-2,176,000(1,379 confirmed, 634 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 140,800-176,000
N.America share (5%) : 87,000-108,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 7,040-8,800

Europe share (9%) : 156,000-195,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 12,672-15,840


22nd : 2,048,000-2,560,000(1,695 confirmed, 634 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 179,200-224,000
Serious/critical cases (18%): 36,288.
N.America share (5%) : 102,400-128,000 infected
Presenting symptoms :8,960-11,200

Europe share (9%) : 184,000-230,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 16,120-oioooooo


23rd : 3,277,000-4,096,000(2,052 confirmed, 691 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 217,600-272,000
N.America share (5%) : 163,850-204,800 infected
Presenting symptoms : 10,880-13,600

Europe share (9%) : 294,930-368,640 infected
Presenting symptoms : 19,500-24,500


24th : 4,506,000-5,632,000(2,429 confirmed, 691 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 256,000-320,000 (+128,953 added from the staggered numbers from previous 7 days), for a median number of 421,453 for this day.
Serious/critical cases (18%): 75,861.
N.America share (5%) : 225,300-281,600 infected
Presenting symptoms : 12,800-16,000

Europe share (9%) : 405,000-506,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 23,000-28,800

25th : 5,735,000-7,168,000(2,754 confirmed, 691 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 409,500-512,000


26th : 6,964,000-8,704,000(3,316 confirmed, 705 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 563,000-704,000
Serious/critical cases (18%): 114,030



27th : 8,192,000-10,240,000(4,270 confirmed, 705 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 716,500-896,000
N.America share (5%) : 409,600-512,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 35,800-44,800

Europe share (9%) : 737,000-921,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 64,500-80,600


28th : 13,107,000-16,384,000(5,315 confirmed, 705 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 870,000-1,088,000


29th : 18,022,000-22,528,000
Presenting symptoms :1,024,000-1,280,000
Serious/critical cases (18%): 207,360.


March(infected people):
1st : 22,937,000-28,672,000
Presenting symptoms : 1,638,500-2,048,000
N.America share (5%) : 1,146,800-1,433,600 infected
Presenting symptoms : 81,925-102,000

Europe share (9%) : 2,064,000-2,580,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 147,400-184,300


2nd : 27,852,000-34,816,000(10,293 confirmed, 706 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 2,253,000-2,816,000 (+610,807 added from the staggered numbers from previous 7 days), for a median number of 3,145,307 for this day.
Serious/critical cases (18%): 566,165.


3rd : 32,768,000-40,960,000(12,632 confirmed, 706 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 2,867,500-3,584,000
N.America share (5%) : 1,638,400-2,048,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 143,300-179,000

Europe share (9%) : 2,949,000-3,686,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 258,000-322,000


March 8th : 131 mil. to 200 mil. infected.
Presenting symptoms : 11.4 mil to 14.3 mil.

N.America share (5%) : 6.5 mil to 10 mil. infected
Presenting symptoms in N.A : 573k to 716k
Serious cases in N.America : 103k to 128k

Europe share (9%) : 11.7 mil to 18 mil.
Presenting symptoms in Europe : 1 mil. to 1.3 mil.
Serious cases in Europe : 180k to 234k




In the last days, most officially confirmed cases were detected roughly 7 days after symptoms appeared. There were some exceptions, with 15-21 days incubation period, but most were in the 7 day range.

However, a significant number of infected people will be asymptomatic for 12-14 or more days, which is roughly 40-50% of the infected people, at a given date. I will round it up to 50%.

The remaining 50% will be staggered for an additional 7 days, but in order to avoid adding a ton of numbers for every day, I will add them up every 7 days.

Applying this to my model, the number of symptomatic people on February 5th is about half the number of infected people on January 28th.

I will add the serious and critical cases (18% of the total) every 3-4 days and the days with the added staggered cases.

The current model points to an overload of the healthcare systems in Europe and the U.S. to start around mid-March, with Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan to start feeling the pressure at the end of February.

The former model was pointing that the healthcare systems would start feeling the pressure around mid-February for Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan, with Europe and U.S. by early March.

The former model was off by about 2 weeks.


The new model will have its critical period between March 2nd-March 8th.

---------------------------------------------------------
 Quoting: deplorable recollector

This is OP's first post in this thread. Obviously OP changed it later on. However beneath this post it says "Last Edited by Lady Jayne Smith on 10/22/2020 12:16 PM"

I don't really feel easy about this. Why did a mod change this post and how did she change it?
Anonymous Coward
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10/23/2020 12:47 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Master DR, I have no words to describe the gratitude for your work.

I've been following your thread since the first post, and after validating and re-validating the numbers (because I'm also a master of numbers), I decided in January to remodel my whole life to escape the horrible future that awaits the cities.

I used all the credit lines I had, (fuck the banks), invested everything in crypto and physical gold, recovered the investments, spent everything on resources useful for survival, and have lived in the jungle, building a refuge with my own hands. It has been months of a lot of struggle, but it is just what is expected of a family man, who is a man and defends his family.

I quit my job, burned my name at the banks, and I'm called crazy even by my mother. I chose the path of no return. In my country it is said "I burned the caravels". But I'm still sure I did the right thing.

Hundreds of people had access to your work through me. Its reach is not limited to visitors to this forum, nor is it limited to interweb users.

My family and I are very grateful.
His wisdom and work were our compass.


Note: english is not my language.
 Quoting: Mr.Borg


I hope you are not trolling, but if not, you kind of overreacted, albeit I think in the mid term you might be proven to have made a very good decision.
 Quoting: Red Hot Chilean Pepe

If so, he would certainly be well prepared!
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10/23/2020 12:52 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
I am preparing an update for Thursday, with a list of countries in Europe that based on my calculations, lost the control of the epidemic already, or are very close to lose it.


I am also trying to determine if the lock-downs are really off the table, or it's just that Europe is waiting for the U.S. elections results, before deciding in favor or against lock-downs.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector


Look forward to it.

Wonder if wales locking down will it push others todo the same
 Quoting: Covid19sars2.0



I don't see why Wales lock-down is relevant. We're talking a very small population size.


Doesn't matter what such small entities do or don't.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector

Belgium is looking towards a lockdown. In the media experts and anyone else is very diffident about it, they are all very evasive except for complaining about it all being too little too late, but they keep saying they want to avoid a lockdown... I'm not buying it, they know very well it's coming fast. The city of Liege have been overwhelmed with new COVID cases to the point where jouralists from abroad have come to visit and gather news stories. The people themselves mostly sstill seem all willing to follow the narrative.
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10/23/2020 12:56 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79471260


Ireland - Republic of - full lockdown for 6 weeks, announcement tonight 9pm.
Govt tried to hold out against it, medical authorities -NPHET - won that battle. Ireland has a very shaky public health service at the best of times.
This is emphatically NOT the best of times, case numbers ^ above exponential growth *
Here in UK situation seems utterly chaotic.
Many thanks to DR for so much work. Followed since early Spring.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79512947



The current lvl 5 proposal in Ireland is a "soft" lvl 5...because schools remain open.


Full lock-down, with schools open? Full lock-down with workplaces open?


It's not even a lock-down.


Calling what Ireland is preparing to do , a full lock-down, is very far from what actually is.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector

I wonder who it is they are trying to fool? Look no further: it's their own population.
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10/23/2020 01:01 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Master DR, I have no words to describe the gratitude for your work.

I've been following your thread since the first post, and after validating and re-validating the numbers (because I'm also a master of numbers), I decided in January to remodel my whole life to escape the horrible future that awaits the cities.

I used all the credit lines I had, (fuck the banks), invested everything in crypto and physical gold, recovered the investments, spent everything on resources useful for survival, and have lived in the jungle, building a refuge with my own hands. It has been months of a lot of struggle, but it is just what is expected of a family man, who is a man and defends his family.

I quit my job, burned my name at the banks, and I'm called crazy even by my mother. I chose the path of no return. In my country it is said "I burned the caravels". But I'm still sure I did the right thing.

Hundreds of people had access to your work through me. Its reach is not limited to visitors to this forum, nor is it limited to interweb users.

My family and I are very grateful.
His wisdom and work were our compass.


Note: english is not my language.
 Quoting: Mr.Borg


Mr. Borg,

Interesting Name, Not a Bot are you ?

In 3 Months everyone here Will Understand

You Sir, Are the Smartest Man on GLP.

Good Luck to You Sir and May God Bless Your Efforts.

I'll see you on the Other Side.

Michael

 Quoting: Hnry Bwmn

Stop calling everyone a bot...; those posters you are calling bots are VERY OBVIOUSLY posting thoughtful comments.

You have some issues.
Anonymous Coward
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10/23/2020 01:08 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
I am preparing an update for Thursday, with a list of countries in Europe that based on my calculations, lost the control of the epidemic already, or are very close to lose it.


I am also trying to determine if the lock-downs are really off the table, or it's just that Europe is waiting for the U.S. elections results, before deciding in favor or against lock-downs.
 Quoting: deplorable recollector

I am almost certain this is what they are doing in Belgium, as yesterday (or the day before) someone on TV was mentioning Nov 2nd as some sort of decisive date (talking within the Belgian pandemic context).
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Interim numbers here are 8840, again higher than I’ve seen before. Prime minister is commenting that an infection rate of around 15,000 can be expected for the final tally tomorrow.

So most shops apart from essentials are to close.The government is admitting, that if these measures are not taken, the hospital system would crash by November 7th-11th. Even hearing talks about refrigerated trucks. Imagine these numbers keep rising up until November 7th-11th?! From what I understand the state of emergency is in effect until November 3rd.

How on earth will this mini break do any good? Cant see that happening. So it’ll be interesting how this goes until early November.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77356084



Your government is lying. Czech medical system collapsed several days ago, when Czechia started to transfer patients to Germany.


The moment a country cannot support all its patients, the medical system collapsed.

 Quoting: deplorable recollector

SAME FOR BELGIUM.

They have already transferred (or are trying to) patients to Germany, but they are keeping up the pretense on TV.
Anonymous Coward
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10/23/2020 02:07 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Interim numbers here are 8840, again higher than I’ve seen before. Prime minister is commenting that an infection rate of around 15,000 can be expected for the final tally tomorrow.

So most shops apart from essentials are to close.The government is admitting, that if these measures are not taken, the hospital system would crash by November 7th-11th. Even hearing talks about refrigerated trucks. Imagine these numbers keep rising up until November 7th-11th?! From what I understand the state of emergency is in effect until November 3rd.

How on earth will this mini break do any good? Cant see that happening. So it’ll be interesting how this goes until early November.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77356084


Thank for your first hand experience - this is really telling.

Please stay as safe as you can!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78614390

I would think this should not be too hard in the Czech Republic. Outside Prague and other cities, population density is rather low.
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10/23/2020 05:28 AM
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Re: WW3 Europe front. UPDATE page 532 -February 2024, the decisive month
Hospitalizations, not cases, is what should be closely watched. I'm not seeing doom at all.





GLP