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Statistical Analysis of Coronavirus Outbreak

 
millenniumjackal
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01/30/2020 09:37 AM
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Statistical Analysis of Coronavirus Outbreak
Statistical Analysis of Coronavirus Outbreak

This morning I've completed a comprehensive numerical analysis of the current situation.

The official numbers of infected and deaths seem to be plausible, however I believe they are delayed 10 days from what is actually currently happening.

It also appeared at first that the virus was following a purely exponential progression, however as of today, the data is beginning to depart from that trendline. I believe this is because before today it was too early (not enough information) to accurately express its behavior.

It may also be that travel restrictions and quarantine have worked to inhibit it's full potential.

Because of this, the virus is proceding in a polynomial instead of exponential fashion and can be described by the following formula:

f(x) = 128.38x^2 -605.82x + 940

If this is correct, in 3 days from now, by Sunday evening we will see 17,620 reported cases 3,524 in critical condition and 384 deaths.

I believe things will continue in this fashion in the Northern Hemisphere for 3 more months until late Spring.

It may continue to progress if areas in the Southern Hemisphere are contaminated.

By the middle of March I think we will be looking at 426,759 cases and 9,300 deaths.

If countries do not enact quarantine, however, the situation may be worse.

This may however cause significant and continued economic disruption to the travel, tourism and hospitality industries.

If things continue as they have, I think there will be sufficient medical facilities to handle the critical care cases and prevent those numbers from adding to the death toll.

The world situation was already in a fragile state before this happened, and political factions and state actors may use this as an opportunity to foment civil and political unrest, although this would be much akin to throwing bricks when you live in a glass house.

I think Sunday evening will be another benchmark to reassess the accuracy of analysis.

This is a dynamic situation and there are too many variables to feed into the equations i.e. length of recovery, number of ventilators available, countries adopting city wide quarantines and travel bans, global weather patterns, etc.

I don't have all the answers. Nobody does. But this is my best attempt at logic at the moment.

-Jackal

Last Edited by millenniumjackal on 01/30/2020 09:39 AM
You only hear about SpecOps when they go wrong.
Anonymous Coward
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01/30/2020 09:42 AM
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Re: Statistical Analysis of Coronavirus Outbreak
[link to pbs.twimg.com (secure)]

This is all you need to know statistically
millenniumjackal  (OP)

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01/30/2020 09:46 AM
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Re: Statistical Analysis of Coronavirus Outbreak
[link to pbs.twimg.com (secure)]

This is all you need to know statistically
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78390810


Those numbers were tracking well at first. I think today is the day you will begin to see them diverge and start to follow my formula.

I hope I'm right because if not, then we are truly fucked.
You only hear about SpecOps when they go wrong.
God91
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01/30/2020 09:48 AM
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Re: Statistical Analysis of Coronavirus Outbreak
Hey, by Sunday I've got the following #:
36,595 reported cases & 468 deaths

by Feb 6: 110K reported & 1.2K dead
by Feb 8: 190K reported & 2.1K dead
Ostria1

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01/30/2020 09:48 AM

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Re: Statistical Analysis of Coronavirus Outbreak
Thank you for this analysis! We will check it later and mainly on Sunday-Monday.
hf
Ostria
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01/30/2020 09:53 AM
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Re: Statistical Analysis of Coronavirus Outbreak
[link to pbs.twimg.com (secure)]

This is all you need to know statistically
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78390810


^^ THIS ^^ is all we need to know. It's tracking according to projections.
TheShavior

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01/30/2020 09:57 AM
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Re: Statistical Analysis of Coronavirus Outbreak
So I've been watching these different models and they are all pretty good with infection rates... But so far no one has died outside of China... So is this going to even be a problem in developed countries with better healthcare? Even if a million people are infected, if no one here is dying, then meh?
millenniumjackal  (OP)

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01/30/2020 10:06 AM
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Re: Statistical Analysis of Coronavirus Outbreak
So I've been watching these different models and they are all pretty good with infection rates... But so far no one has died outside of China... So is this going to even be a problem in developed countries with better healthcare? Even if a million people are infected, if no one here is dying, then meh?
 Quoting: TheShavior


I think the current cases outside of mainland China are too few and too soon to analyze. We need more time to understand how those other factors will affect things.

My hunch is that once there is further human to human transmission into the general population of other countries, you will see a similar death rate.

The reason there have been no outside deaths so far is that it is a small population sample that was in good health and younger age that carried it out of China.

It will inevitably escape containment and once it does it will begin to infect the general population slowly if it hasn't already.

Keep in mind, it takes nearly a week for symptoms to develop and another half a week after that for test diagnosis.

I think by this time next week there will be about 800 cases in 20 different countries and you will see the first handful of death cases outside of China.

Probably around Feb 6th.
You only hear about SpecOps when they go wrong.
Anonymous Coward
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01/30/2020 10:11 AM
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Re: Statistical Analysis of Coronavirus Outbreak
bump
DEPLORABLE windowlicker

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01/30/2020 10:24 AM

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Re: Statistical Analysis of Coronavirus Outbreak
Thank you so much for taking the time and effort to put together this information and getting it out for all to partake of. I do appreciate you! I know I'll be paying attention to this and other projections especially over the next few days/weeks to see how they all compare against whatever happens.

I am hoping for the "least fucked" future to happen but... we shall see!

some green and 5* to ya!
Anonymous Coward
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01/30/2020 10:31 AM
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Re: Statistical Analysis of Coronavirus Outbreak
I wonder how many test kits they have in each area? They can only confirm as many as the kits avalible allow.
millenniumjackal  (OP)

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01/30/2020 10:37 AM
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Re: Statistical Analysis of Coronavirus Outbreak
I wonder how many test kits they have in each area? They can only confirm as many as the kits avalible allow.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78166438


Every official statement about test kits I've seen has been highly contradictory and conflicting.

I've seen:

○Test kits are in development still yet to be sent out and in limited number.
○Testing can only be done by human microscope examination in the lab.
○Only the CDC has that capability in the US.
○Germany can do them same day.
○The US takes 3-5 days for results.

Pick your own reality at this point I guess!
You only hear about SpecOps when they go wrong.
millenniumjackal  (OP)

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02/11/2020 07:26 AM
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Re: Statistical Analysis of Coronavirus Outbreak
Looks like some people are finally picking up on what I posted 2 weeks ago.

Compare my formula with the one in the Zerohedge article!

[link to www.zerohedge.com (secure)]

- Jackal
You only hear about SpecOps when they go wrong.





GLP