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Message Subject Statistical Analysis of Coronavirus Outbreak
Poster Handle millenniumjackal
Post Content
So I've been watching these different models and they are all pretty good with infection rates... But so far no one has died outside of China... So is this going to even be a problem in developed countries with better healthcare? Even if a million people are infected, if no one here is dying, then meh?
 Quoting: TheShavior


I think the current cases outside of mainland China are too few and too soon to analyze. We need more time to understand how those other factors will affect things.

My hunch is that once there is further human to human transmission into the general population of other countries, you will see a similar death rate.

The reason there have been no outside deaths so far is that it is a small population sample that was in good health and younger age that carried it out of China.

It will inevitably escape containment and once it does it will begin to infect the general population slowly if it hasn't already.

Keep in mind, it takes nearly a week for symptoms to develop and another half a week after that for test diagnosis.

I think by this time next week there will be about 800 cases in 20 different countries and you will see the first handful of death cases outside of China.

Probably around Feb 6th.
 
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