Australia would need 1.8 million hospital beds for pandemic, with 25% to 70% population infected

More than 1.8 million hospital beds could be needed to treat people in an Australian coronavirus outbreak, with the country's ageing population meaning the virus could hit harder here than it has overseas.

In a worst-case scenario, at least 650,000 beds would need to be in the intensive care units of hospitals, according to Professor Raina MacIntyre, head of the Biosecurity Program at UNSW's Kirby Institute.

Professor MacIntyre is one of several researchers who have examined how many people in a completely susceptible population could become infected should a pandemic occur.

She estimates it could be anywhere between 25 and 70 per cent of the Australian population.

"This is from what we know about this virus and the fact that nobody's got immunity to it," she said.

"We won't need all these beds at once. It will happen over a period of time. It could go on for a year, for example."

While almost all the people who contract the virus would make a full recovery, Professor MacIntyre estimates in this scenario about 14 per cent could require hospital treatment, 5 per cent may end up in intensive care and 3 per cent of the infected population could die.
Loading

"The majority of people will have a mild infection, but the case fatality rates and hospital rates [in the worst-case scenario] translate to quite big numbers," she said.

[link to www.smh.com.au (secure)]