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The only countries that are going to be 'fine' are Australia and NZ

 
Chaosisfreedom
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Australia
02/27/2020 02:53 AM
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The only countries that are going to be 'fine' are Australia and NZ
Oz and NZ have low population density, are island at the bottom of the world and have (Australia anyway) huge amounts of space to spread out to.

Most people know someone with property to bug out on. Crowds the way the rest of the world understands them don't exist here.

So if the virus is actually a thing then these two countries will be the least effected in terms of threats to the population.

However.

Both economies are going to get trashed. Australia relies on China for 35% if its GDP. Our main industries are:

- Mining: An enormous amount of the demand for commodities comes from China. Additionally the profit margins large miners work on are razor thin. Something like 3% if I'm not mistaken. Capital costs for mining are huge. Couple that with the overvaluation of commodities over the last 10 years and this industry is staring down the barrel. Sure people will always need minerals, but not if it doesn't turn a profit. Furthermore, China, who is a significant aspect of that global demand has large stockpiles of these minerals. So even if they resume normal production, they don't need to start buying right away.

- Education: A large amount of money comes into Australia from foreign students. These travel bans are already putting the squeeze on universities to the point where they are considering giving 100,000 Chinese students money to fly back to Australia to keep studying.

- Agriculture. Maybe the one saving grace the country has. Although our leadership is 3rd country level corrupt so it wouldn't be a surprise if they fob all the food off overseas so we all have to pay more to get it imported back. They do this a lot. Also we've just had serious droughts/fires/floods which haven't been great for production. We've had to import wheat because the current crop is so bad.

- Tourism: Kind of a no-brainier here on how the whole virus/travel ban is going to fuck up this country's pockets.

Factor all of these into the fact we also have the world most overleveraged housing bubble. Seriously, no one can afford property in this country unless you take a $600,000 loan to buy a shitty apartment in a city. It's bad. My brother and his gf are doctors and they got knocked back from a home loan cause they didn't want to get an apartment. We also have this fucked culture of home ownership instilled by the baby People far more intelligent than millennialss where no one thinks you can lose money in property. I'm being completely serious. A 60 year property bull market means there are few people left alive in Oz that are aware that you can lose money in real estate. Because of this culture many people have borrowed against their first home to buy a 2nd, 3rd, up to silly amounts. Any jack up in interest rates will wreck these people and force a wave of selling onto the Oz market.
And the best part about the housing bubble... Almost all the demand over the last 10 years has been from Chinese nationals. Guess what they're going to need to do to free up capital in the near future.

New Zealand is no different in regards to their property market. I'm sure they have to same shitty exposed economy cause fuck knows what they actually do for money there. Most of them come to Australia to work so it's probably tourism. Suck to be them.

So you see while we'll probably survive the virus, if it's a serious thing, and it looks so more and more everyday, we're still going to be fucked in an economic sense. We have almost zero manufacturing so any notion we'll make things here is a pipe dream.

The rest of you are screwed. High population density. Almost every other country besides Australia constantly reeks of shit. And the notion that Americans will be fine is actually hilarious. You're all a bunch of fat, opium-addicted, psychopaths armed to the teeth and blood-drunk of a lifetime of TV 'programming'. Seriously all you need to start eating each other is for a supermarket to run low and bam! Goodbye social order. There's 350 million of you there, what percentage of that are going to be able to bug out.

Supply chain economics have killed the economy, you all just don't realise it yet. Without a virus that is going to bring the pain. If this thing is a mutating bio-weapon as it seems to be most of the developed world is going back to the stone age, or tearing themselves apart in social unrest, which will result in going back to the stone age. The third world is just going to die. They live in squalor and have no real medical system. Oof.

Keep sticking your head in the sand and eating your nothingburgers. The unwashed masses never get the raw end of the deal, the status quo will protect you.

Australians, better get your money out of the banks while you can. With a third of the global demand for our currency now evaporated to zero what do you think is going to happen to the value of the AUD????
Order is tyranny, chaos is freedom.
Anonymous Coward
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Australia
02/27/2020 02:56 AM
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Re: The only countries that are going to be 'fine' are Australia and NZ
The Aussie dollar
Could return to parity
With the usd
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78490220
Australia
02/27/2020 02:57 AM
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Re: The only countries that are going to be 'fine' are Australia and NZ
How?
Long term our interest rate
Will be raised earlier
Google_It

User ID: 77935151
Canada
02/27/2020 02:58 AM

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Re: The only countries that are going to be 'fine' are Australia and NZ
Thread: OFFICIAL:. Breaking News Australia - Prime Minister Declares PANDEMIC Procedures Initiated
The Voice Of Reason @NewsAlternative [link to twitter.com (secure)]
Chaosisfreedom  (OP)

User ID: 78532152
Australia
02/27/2020 03:09 AM
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Re: The only countries that are going to be 'fine' are Australia and NZ
How?
Long term our interest rate
Will be raised earlier
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78490220


The Aussie dollar
Could return to parity
With the usd
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78490220


Love the optimism guys but how? You need a demand for Aussie dollars. Where is that gunna come from and for what?
Order is tyranny, chaos is freedom.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78490220
Australia
02/27/2020 03:13 AM
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Re: The only countries that are going to be 'fine' are Australia and NZ
How?
Long term our interest rate
Will be raised earlier
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78490220


The Aussie dollar
Could return to parity
With the usd
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78490220


Love the optimism guys but how? You need a demand for Aussie dollars. Where is that gunna come from and for what?
 Quoting: Chaosisfreedom


Demand comes from relative difference
Of interest rate projections

Less money in circulation
Higher is it’s value
Chaosisfreedom  (OP)

User ID: 78532152
Australia
02/27/2020 03:27 AM
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Re: The only countries that are going to be 'fine' are Australia and NZ
How?
Long term our interest rate
Will be raised earlier
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78490220


The Aussie dollar
Could return to parity
With the usd
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78490220


Love the optimism guys but how? You need a demand for Aussie dollars. Where is that gunna come from and for what?
 Quoting: Chaosisfreedom


Demand comes from relative difference
Of interest rate projections

Less money in circulation
Higher is it’s value
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78490220


Demand comes from market participants who either need or want Australian dollars. They want dollars to engage in trade with Australians. When that demand falls, and supply stays the same, the price drops. The RBA can either spend reserves to buy AUD off the market and/or restrict the amount of dollars created to try and increase the value of the AUD. But that isn't able to compensate for lack of market demand.

Interest rates in this case are only relevant to plebs because of their mortgages.
Order is tyranny, chaos is freedom.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78503232
Australia
02/27/2020 04:30 AM
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Re: The only countries that are going to be 'fine' are Australia and NZ
I doubt people with property are Interested In having anyone bug out to It frankly.
Halcyon Dayz

User ID: 77457769
United States
03/05/2020 09:13 PM
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Re: The only countries that are going to be 'fine' are Australia and NZ
Might be the gheyest Coroni tard thread yet.
Halcyon Dayz

User ID: 77457769
United States
03/05/2020 09:15 PM
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Re: The only countries that are going to be 'fine' are Australia and NZ
I think Lostralians hate their lives or at least the OP Lostralian does.
Anonymous Coward
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New Zealand
03/05/2020 09:26 PM
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Re: The only countries that are going to be 'fine' are Australia and NZ
Very gayish thread.
Halcyon Dayz

User ID: 77457769
United States
03/05/2020 09:55 PM
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Re: The only countries that are going to be 'fine' are Australia and NZ
Very gayish thread.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 70782674


hesright
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 73655586
United States
03/05/2020 09:56 PM
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Re: The only countries that are going to be 'fine' are Australia and NZ
There are no living people in either place that I know of.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 77321652
Brazil
03/05/2020 09:57 PM
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Re: The only countries that are going to be 'fine' are Australia and NZ
Perth will be the first breakout down under.

That's where 5G implementation is heaviest OP.

Are you near Perth?
Anonymous Coward
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United States
03/05/2020 09:59 PM
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Re: The only countries that are going to be 'fine' are Australia and NZ
Look at all the ship traffic from/to Australia and China

[link to www.marinetraffic.com (secure)]

Doomy looking in real time.
Anonymous Coward
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03/05/2020 10:02 PM
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Re: The only countries that are going to be 'fine' are Australia and NZ
australia will not be fine because it is full of ass raping sodomites


just look at op
Chaosisfreedom  (OP)

User ID: 77997113
Australia
03/05/2020 10:04 PM
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Re: The only countries that are going to be 'fine' are Australia and NZ
Perth will be the first breakout down under.

That's where 5G implementation is heaviest OP.

Are you near Perth?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77321652


Other side, Queensland.

Americans freaking out right now. Turns out that nothingburgers are no longer on the menu.
Order is tyranny, chaos is freedom.
Halcyon Dayz

User ID: 77457769
United States
03/05/2020 10:06 PM
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Re: The only countries that are going to be 'fine' are Australia and NZ
australia will not be fine because it is full of ass raping sodomites


just look at op
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78008453


hesright
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78502785
Australia
03/05/2020 10:06 PM
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Re: The only countries that are going to be 'fine' are Australia and NZ
Australia should never of allowed itself to become dependant on China.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78502785
Australia
03/05/2020 10:07 PM
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Re: The only countries that are going to be 'fine' are Australia and NZ
australia will not be fine because it is full of ass raping sodomites


just look at op
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78008453


And you know this, how?
Anonymous Coward
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France
03/05/2020 10:07 PM
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Re: The only countries that are going to be 'fine' are Australia and NZ
My mother in NZ purchased her new home in Cash. It is rather large with a guest house and she is building onto it at the moment. Which can house many of us and our families if we want to live with her.

If the economy collapses she will be okay.


NZ needs to go back to the 70's style economy. The govt dished out the loans before the bankers came in. NZ has a lot to export too. I think NZ and Aussie will be okay.





GLP