Nine Weeks to Coronavirus Chaos in the US? (UPDATE: 28.7 M cases -- 516 K dead - Week 9 Recap: p. 53)

then nothing will happen...or not

Are they providing names and Facebook pages of the dead?

Seems like everyone is a number.

And life will go on....

BREAKING - United States reports the 3rd #COVID19 case in New York. The son of the infected man from Westchester County tested positive for coronavirus. He is a college student at Yeshiva University who stayed at dorms. All classes at the Wilf campus in Manhattan canceled.

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

Remember as scary as it seems, many recover.

Most, in fact, so far.

132 cases

6 in critical condition

137 confirmed

Ten dead now per Pence


[link to twitter.com (secure)]

149 cases confirmed now and eleven dead

Cases up almost 50% and deaths almost double in less than 48 hours.

United Airlines Announces Major Flight Cuts Over COVID-19 Outbreak - Sputnik International

[link to sputniknews.com (secure)]

154 cases confirmed now in the US

BREAKING: The joint #Israel-#US Juniper Cobra missile defense drill has been cancelled because of #Covid_19

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

Coronavirus News: 1st public school district in New York closes in response to COVID-19

[link to abc7ny.com (secure)]

Coronavirus outbreak cuts short cruise from San Francisco to Mexico after passenger dies


[link to www.ktvu.com (secure)]

158 confirmed now

As coronavirus spreads, King County recommends companies allow employees to work remotely when possible

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

Houston Public Media
@HoustonPubMedia
·
39m
Breaking: Fort Bend County Health & Human Services confirms first presumptive positive case of COVID-19, the novel coronavirus

Thread: Cruise ship with 2000 passengers on lockdown and being held off the coast of CA because of COVID-19

159 cases confirmed

BNO Newsroom
@BNODesk
·
18m
BREAKING: New Jersey reports first case of coronavirus

GEORGIA:

Cherokee County private school closed after coronavirus diagnosis

[link to www.fox5atlanta.com (secure)]

14 Coronavirus Cases Now Confirmed in Santa Clara County

[link to www.nbcbayarea.com (secure)]

Newsom declares statewide emergency over coronavirus
CORONAVIRUS
by: Associated Press

Posted: Mar 4, 2020 / 04:26 PM PST / Updated: Mar 4, 2020 / 05:07 PM PST
SACRAMENTO, Calif. (KTXL) — California’s first coronavirus fatality — an elderly patient who apparently contracted the illness on a cruise — prompted the governor Wednesday to declare a statewide emergency as six new cases, including a medical screener at Los Angeles International Airport, were confirmed.

The measure made California the third U.S. state to declare a state of emergency. Washington and Florida are the other two.

The state currently has 53 confirmed cases of coronavirus.

Gov. Gavin Newsom said the emergency proclamation is intended to help procure supplies and resources quickly. He announced the move Wednesday afternoon during a news conference, hours after the patient’s death in Placer County was announced.

Newsom said the state is particularly focused on senior centers, nursing homes and other care facilities where people live together in light of the outbreak in Washington state that has already killed 10 there.


continues at link:

[link to fox40.com (secure)]

·
2h
2 more U.S. Forces Korea dependents in South Korea have tested positive for coronavirus, raising total to 6 cases for USFK-related personnel: statement

1 of the 6 cases is an active-duty service member. The others are dependents.


Source: Fox News

I was thinking more the 6th week paradigm but you are probably closer to the right numbers as this was going on before we realized it..perhaps longer

My prediction is we are 8 days away from Italy...3000 cases next Thursday.

Probably last good week to do what we have to do.

Thank you for all that you bring

Yeah

South Korea had one hundred cases thirteen days ago.


Now almost 6000 and in major chaos.



I was being conservative in my estimate actually.

So, to recap:


48 hours ago...

"100 confirmed cases of COVID-19, incuding six deaths in Washington state, two serious cases, five critical cases and nine recovered patients."



Now...


159 confirmed cases, eleven deaths, two still in serious condition, five still in critical condition and still only nine "recovered" -- and it is increasingly unclear what that means.

Based on what we are seeing, there will be a doubling time perhaps of less than four days, possibly closer to three.

But let's say conservatively four


At day four, we will have 200 cases.

At day eight, 400 confirmed cases.

At day twelve, 800.

At day sixteen, 1600.


At day twenty, 3200.

At day twenty-four, 6400.

At day twenty-eight, 12,800. (that is four weeks)

At day thirty-two, 25,600.

At day thirty-six, 51,200.


At day forty, 102,400 (that is less than six weeks)


So in less than six weeks, our numbers could be the same or worse as China's were two days ago -- IF WE BELIEVE THAT THEY HAVE BEEN HONEST IN REPORTING THE NUMBER OF CASES.


I don't.