Nine Weeks to Coronavirus Chaos in the US? (UPDATE: 28.7 M cases -- 516 K dead - Week 9 Recap: p. 53)

Case mortality rate is 2.21% or lower and decreasing.

That is the one bit of concrete hood news.

Albeit everyone seems to worry about the death rate, and often dismiss it because is “not higher than the flu” (which is incorrect, as this virus is at least 10 times more lethal), I really don’t care about the deaths, but about how contagious it is and how many people gets very ill and then is left with long term sequeleae, including diabetes.

U.S. Confirmed

11,419,204

Per Johns Hopkins

U.S. Confirmed

11,525,149


Per Johns Hopkins

Worldwide:

https://twitter.com/_/status/1329514040473870337

11,667,719 cases and 251,892 deaths per Johns Hopkins

Case fatality rate is 2.19% per infection2020.com and continuing to decline

Approaching 200K new cases a day.

At just two percent mortality, that may mean 4,000 deaths a day.

CASES 11,626,885 + 2% (+184,167 past 24hr)

DEATHS 252,795. + 1% (+1,926 past 24hr)

CASE FATALITY RATE 2.17%

Cases increasing 2% in 24 hrs is very concerning.

If this were to continue for about a month or so...

That represents a doubling rate of 37 days.

At this rate...


We could be looking at 24 million cases by year end and possibly 500 K deaths by the beginning of next year.


Worst case scenario.

VA on the rise again


[link to www.nbc12.com (secure)]

RICHMOND, Va. (WWBT) - The Virginia Department of Health (VDH) reported 213,331 total coronavirus cases throughout the state Friday, a 2,544 case increase from Thursday.

Hello Bob, I think that the original scenario initially proposed by the American Hospitalary Association seems to be already in the way to be surpassed by a long margin, considering it was proposed as a best case scenario for the entire Pandemic that was always thought to last between 3 to 4 years.

The infamous slide:

No, that slide was inaccurate in many ways.

Doubling time is not seven to ten days right now -- nowhere close. It was in the early pandemic in the US.

Flu has become mysteriously non-existent.



No, I will stick with my own data and predictions.


I don't know how long this will last.



My best guess right now is at least until Spring 2021 -- probably April or so.


I don't expect it to go away imminently. But I also don't know for a fact that it will be around two, three or four years.