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COVID-19 is SARS only way MORE CONTAGIOUS!!!

 
Anonymous Coward
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03/06/2020 12:14 AM
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Re: COVID-19 is SARS only way MORE CONTAGIOUS!!!
We’re there mild cases of SARS?

Honest question
 Quoting: JypsieWind


..."were"..
Are you retarded?


Honest question...
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78096646
Hong Kong
03/06/2020 12:15 AM
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Re: COVID-19 is SARS only way MORE CONTAGIOUS!!!
News …from Japan, Taiwan and China attribute the origin of the Coronavirus to the USA.

An alarm bell should be ringing in our mind. The following news is indeed becoming widespread in all of East Asia China included. It is becoming the hottest topic on Chinese social media...

In this video Taiwan Virologist argues that the Coronavirus Originated in the US. [link to f.video.weibocdn.com]

This Taiwan virologist and pharmacologist explains on Taiwanese TV that the geographical location with the greatest diversity of virus strains must be the original source because a single strain cannot emerge from nothing. He demonstrated that only the US has all the five known strains of the virus (while Wuhan and most of China have only one, as do Taiwan and South Korea, Thailand and Vietnam, Singapore, and England, Belgium and Germany), constituting a thesis that the haplotypes in other nations may have originated in the US.

This Virologist further states that the US has recently had more than 200 “pulmonary fibrosis” cases that resulted in death due to patients’ inability to breathe, but whose conditions and symptoms could not be explained by pulmonary fibrosis. He says that he wrote articles informing the US health authorities to consider seriously those deaths as resulting from the coronavirus, but they responded by blaming the deaths on e-cigarettes, then silenced further discussion. …

He also states the case of September of 2019 when some Japanese traveled to Hawaii and returned home infected, people who had never been to China. This was two months prior to the infections in China and just after the CDC suddenly and totally shut down the Fort Detrick bio-weapons lab claiming the facilities were insufficient to prevent loss of pathogens

In China itself " medical authorities – and “intelligence agencies” – conducted a rapid and wide-ranging search for the origin of the virus, collecting nearly 100 samples of the genome from 12 different countries on 4 continents, identifying all the varieties and mutations. During this research, they determined the virus outbreak had begun much earlier, probably in November, shortly after the Wuhan Military Games. They then came to the same independent conclusions as the Japanese researchers – that the virus did not begin in China but was introduced there from the outside. " writes Larry Romanoff in Global Research.



References :

[link to en.people.cn]
[link to m.weibo.cn (secure)]
[link to en.people.cn]
[link to www.fredericknewspost.com (secure)]
[link to www.globalresearch.ca (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78572020



THE CHICKENS HAVE COME HOME TO ROOST

yoda

THE COVID-19 HAS MUTATED FROM A CHINESE SPECIFIC KILLER PATHOGEN TO FATALLY INFECT WESTERNERS TOO


Anonymous Coward
User ID: 76680579
Canada
03/06/2020 12:15 AM
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Re: COVID-19 is SARS only way MORE CONTAGIOUS!!!
How Vodafone Italy turned Milan into an extensive 5G testbed

Working with Italy’s Ministry of Economic Development, Vodafone won a tender 18 months ago to create an extensive 5G testbed in the city of Milan

[link to www.telecomtv.com (secure)]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78293849
United States
03/06/2020 12:16 AM
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Re: COVID-19 is SARS only way MORE CONTAGIOUS!!!
SARS and MERS are different than COVID-19.

All experts (including the China CDC) agree they are different.

COVID-19 is more contagious, but less deadly, than SARS.
SilverCyprus

User ID: 77123653
Canada
03/06/2020 12:18 AM

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Re: COVID-19 is SARS only way MORE CONTAGIOUS!!!
SARS is the condition associated with the virus, not the virus itself.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome

It is a different virus, bit can have the same effect (SARS) However, it is less likely to cause SARS.

The kill rate according to data is 3% but if you take into account that there are probably as many unreported cases, the true kill rate is probably less than 1%
DOOMVIEW  (OP)

User ID: 78541450
United States
03/06/2020 12:19 AM
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Re: COVID-19 is SARS only way MORE CONTAGIOUS!!!
News …from Japan, Taiwan and China attribute the origin of the Coronavirus to the USA.

An alarm bell should be ringing in our mind. The following news is indeed becoming widespread in all of East Asia China included. It is becoming the hottest topic on Chinese social media...

In this video Taiwan Virologist argues that the Coronavirus Originated in the US. [link to f.video.weibocdn.com]

This Taiwan virologist and pharmacologist explains on Taiwanese TV that the geographical location with the greatest diversity of virus strains must be the original source because a single strain cannot emerge from nothing. He demonstrated that only the US has all the five known strains of the virus (while Wuhan and most of China have only one, as do Taiwan and South Korea, Thailand and Vietnam, Singapore, and England, Belgium and Germany), constituting a thesis that the haplotypes in other nations may have originated in the US.

This Virologist further states that the US has recently had more than 200 “pulmonary fibrosis” cases that resulted in death due to patients’ inability to breathe, but whose conditions and symptoms could not be explained by pulmonary fibrosis. He says that he wrote articles informing the US health authorities to consider seriously those deaths as resulting from the coronavirus, but they responded by blaming the deaths on e-cigarettes, then silenced further discussion. …

He also states the case of September of 2019 when some Japanese traveled to Hawaii and returned home infected, people who had never been to China. This was two months prior to the infections in China and just after the CDC suddenly and totally shut down the Fort Detrick bio-weapons lab claiming the facilities were insufficient to prevent loss of pathogens

In China itself " medical authorities – and “intelligence agencies” – conducted a rapid and wide-ranging search for the origin of the virus, collecting nearly 100 samples of the genome from 12 different countries on 4 continents, identifying all the varieties and mutations. During this research, they determined the virus outbreak had begun much earlier, probably in November, shortly after the Wuhan Military Games. They then came to the same independent conclusions as the Japanese researchers – that the virus did not begin in China but was introduced there from the outside. " writes Larry Romanoff in Global Research.



References :

[link to en.people.cn]
[link to m.weibo.cn (secure)]
[link to en.people.cn]
[link to www.fredericknewspost.com (secure)]
[link to www.globalresearch.ca (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78572020

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78096646


THE CHICKENS HAVE COME HOME TO ROOST

yoda

THE COVID-19 HAS MUTATED FROM A CHINESE SPECIFIC KILLER PATHOGEN TO FATALLY INFECT WESTERNERS TOO




Since you are here, how are things in Hong Kong? Is the CCP telling the truth about sickness numbers?
M-O-O-N that spells pandemic.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78040912
United States
03/06/2020 12:19 AM
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Re: COVID-19 is SARS only way MORE CONTAGIOUS!!!
best of luck OP


hope you are preparing; as a long time prepper and now this,


best of luck OP
J
User ID: 72314193
United States
03/06/2020 12:21 AM
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Re: COVID-19 is SARS only way MORE CONTAGIOUS!!!
We’re there mild cases of SARS?

Honest question
 Quoting: JypsieWind


..."were"..
Are you retarded?


Honest question...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 71318064


We’re there mild cases of SARS?

Honest question
 Quoting: JypsieWind


..."were"..
Are you retarded?


Honest question...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 71318064
DOOMVIEW  (OP)

User ID: 78541450
United States
03/06/2020 12:21 AM
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Re: COVID-19 is SARS only way MORE CONTAGIOUS!!!
best of luck OP


hope you are preparing; as a long time prepper and now this,


best of luck OP
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78040912


Thanks, I will need it, my job involves traveling constantly.
M-O-O-N that spells pandemic.
SilverCyprus

User ID: 77123653
Canada
03/06/2020 12:21 AM

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Re: COVID-19 is SARS only way MORE CONTAGIOUS!!!
Did the Iranian Coronavirus mutate from the China one or was it a secondary bio attack? Are we witnessing the opening volley of WW3 in the form of biological attacks? Will it escalate? Is someone in possession of a Samson Option virus?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78572710
United States
03/06/2020 12:22 AM
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Re: COVID-19 is SARS only way MORE CONTAGIOUS!!!
I'm asking everyone this. Anyone care to answer?

Q: Is COVID-19 worse than the AIDS virus? If so please explain why and provide the evidence.

Here are the facts about the AIDS virus:
[link to www.who.int (secure)]

EXCERPTS:

Since the beginning of the AIDS epidemic:
* 75 million people have been infected with the HIV virus
* about 32 million people have died of HIV
* Globally, 37.9 million [or 32.7–44.0 million] people were living with HIV at the end of 2018
* An estimated 0.8% [0.6-0.9%] of adults globally aged 15–49 years are living with HIV
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77422316


SARS2 is much more contagious than AIDS and capable of killing more than 32 million in a much faster timeframe.

AIDS has been slowly killing people for decades now and this thing could race around the world and kill tens of millions in the blink of an eye, relatively speaking.

But we don’t know how it’s going to turn out. Nobody knows.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 75721923
United States
03/06/2020 12:22 AM
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Re: COVID-19 is SARS only way MORE CONTAGIOUS!!!
Covid is like SARS and Aids put together. Recovered patient's lungs or inflicted organs will be maimed
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78537041
United States
03/06/2020 12:22 AM
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Re: COVID-19 is SARS only way MORE CONTAGIOUS!!!
You want to know what covid is?

Read this.

[link to en.m.wikipedia.org (secure)]

Yeah, maybe it is a little different, worse for sure...... More virulent, more infective, more easily spread.

But what to expect if you get it....... SARS. 9.6% death.


Want to avoid getting it, if you are a Dr. or Nurse? You need a fucking space suit!!

They are trying to say it is new, not really it is SARS Cov2, that is the virus name.

This is why the various gov’t responses have been insane,

This is why we are seeing the insane response, because it is fucking SARS, and they know how deadly it is.

It should be treated as SARS, and you should know it is SARS, and you don’t want it.
 Quoting: DOOMVIEW


You're going to have to do better than Wikipedia.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78087481
Canada
03/06/2020 12:23 AM
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Re: COVID-19 is SARS only way MORE CONTAGIOUS!!!
I'm asking everyone this. Anyone care to answer?

Q: Is COVID-19 worse than the AIDS virus? If so please explain why and provide the evidence.

Here are the facts about the AIDS virus:
[link to www.who.int (secure)]

EXCERPTS:

Since the beginning of the AIDS epidemic:
* 75 million people have been infected with the HIV virus
* about 32 million people have died of HIV
* Globally, 37.9 million [or 32.7–44.0 million] people were living with HIV at the end of 2018
* An estimated 0.8% [0.6-0.9%] of adults globally aged 15–49 years are living with HIV
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77422316


AIDS isn't airborne, for one.
bazzz
User ID: 55564489
United Kingdom
03/06/2020 12:24 AM
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Re: COVID-19 is SARS only way MORE CONTAGIOUS!!!
orthomolecurar.org will save us
Dave Daddachef.

User ID: 48579917
United States
03/06/2020 12:24 AM
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Re: COVID-19 is SARS only way MORE CONTAGIOUS!!!
My understanding is this thing is a form of the corona virus mixed with HIV SARS and something else.
Jeremiah 33:3 Call unto me, and I will answer thee, and show thee great and mighty things, which thou knowest not.

The Bible could say more than it does BUT
The Bible doesn't say more than it says.
The Bible says what it means and means what it says.

[link to www.jesus-is-savior.com]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78572710
United States
03/06/2020 12:25 AM
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Re: COVID-19 is SARS only way MORE CONTAGIOUS!!!
SARS is the condition associated with the virus, not the virus itself.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome

It is a different virus, bit can have the same effect (SARS) However, it is less likely to cause SARS.

The kill rate according to data is 3% but if you take into account that there are probably as many unreported cases, the true kill rate is probably less than 1%
 Quoting: SilverCyprus


You’ve got it backwards. The virus is SARS2, the condition it causes is covid19.

Like the HIV virus causes AIDS.
J
User ID: 72314193
United States
03/06/2020 12:25 AM
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Re: COVID-19 is SARS only way MORE CONTAGIOUS!!!
I was going to say something but was like holy shit, I shouldn’t converse with someone that doesn’t know the difference between were and we are, aka we’re

We’re there mild cases of SARS?

Honest question
 Quoting: JypsieWind


..."were"..
Are you retarded?


Honest question...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 71318064


We’re there mild cases of SARS?

Honest question
 Quoting: JypsieWind


..."were"..
Are you retarded?


Honest question...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 71318064

 Quoting: J 72314193
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 77222866
United States
03/06/2020 12:28 AM
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Re: COVID-19 is SARS only way MORE CONTAGIOUS!!!
I'm asking everyone this. Anyone care to answer?

Q: Is COVID-19 worse than the AIDS virus? If so please explain why and provide the evidence.

Here are the facts about the AIDS virus:
[link to www.who.int (secure)]

EXCERPTS:

Since the beginning of the AIDS epidemic:
* 75 million people have been infected with the HIV virus
* about 32 million people have died of HIV
* Globally, 37.9 million [or 32.7–44.0 million] people were living with HIV at the end of 2018
* An estimated 0.8% [0.6-0.9%] of adults globally aged 15–49 years are living with HIV
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77422316


Has aids ever brought multiple nations economies and normal functions to a complete standstill?

And you know shit is getting real when people have stopped comparing it to the flu and jumped to comparing it to HIV/aids.

By the way this is not the same virus as SARS 1 OP is tarded.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 76678898
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03/06/2020 12:28 AM
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Re: COVID-19 is SARS only way MORE CONTAGIOUS!!!
I remember john stewart and stephen colbert doing DAILY SHOW skits on SARS in 2003/04 AND PEOPLE WERE LOOSING THEIR SHIT THEN, ITS called pantshitters syndrome.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78572710
United States
03/06/2020 12:29 AM
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Re: COVID-19 is SARS only way MORE CONTAGIOUS!!!
SARS and MERS are different than COVID-19.

All experts (including the China CDC) agree they are different.

COVID-19 is more contagious, but less deadly, than SARS.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78293849


You still don’t get it.

SARS2 is more infectious than SARS1 and the condition it causes is covid-19.

Yes, SARS2 only has a kill rate of about 2% compared to 10% for SARS1, but 2% is enough to eff up the global economy but good.
Miss Bunny Swan

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Romania
03/06/2020 12:31 AM
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Re: COVID-19 is SARS only way MORE CONTAGIOUS!!!
kingvulture
JADR+

User ID: 78323737
Australia
03/06/2020 12:33 AM
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Re: COVID-19 is SARS only way MORE CONTAGIOUS!!!
SARS and MERS are different than COVID-19.

All experts (including the China CDC) agree they are different.

COVID-19 is more contagious, but less deadly, than SARS.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78293849


You still don’t get it.

SARS2 is more infectious than SARS1 and the condition it causes is covid-19.

Yes, SARS2 only has a kill rate of about 2% compared to 10% for SARS1, but 2% is enough to eff up the global economy but good.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78572710


that's not even true anymore

SARS2 kills at rate greater than 6%
I'm a J & proud zio.

OrangeManBad NFTs: [link to opensea.io (secure)]

FE Challenge: Provide a formula which calculates the exact distance between 2 GPS coordinates that does not use the Earth's radius of 6,371 km in it's assumptions

JADR+
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78572710
United States
03/06/2020 12:36 AM
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Re: COVID-19 is SARS only way MORE CONTAGIOUS!!!
SARS and MERS are different than COVID-19.

All experts (including the China CDC) agree they are different.

COVID-19 is more contagious, but less deadly, than SARS.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78293849


You still don’t get it.

SARS2 is more infectious than SARS1 and the condition it causes is covid-19.

Yes, SARS2 only has a kill rate of about 2% compared to 10% for SARS1, but 2% is enough to eff up the global economy but good.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78572710


that's not even true anymore

SARS2 kills at rate greater than 6%
 Quoting: JADR+


No, I don’t believe that at all.
There are too many thousands of cases out there that we don’t know about.

Here, read this.
[link to www.nytimes.com (secure)]
Dave Daddachef.

User ID: 48579917
United States
03/06/2020 12:39 AM
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Re: COVID-19 is SARS only way MORE CONTAGIOUS!!!
and what ever it is my bank thinks it's serious. got this in my email today.

As you know, the level of concern surrounding the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19) has continued to increase. At Bank of Hawaii, we are committed to the health and safety of our employees, customers, and community, and will remain proactive in our response. To ensure we continue to serve our customers in the best way possible, we are monitoring all coronavirus-related developments and have created a web page to update you about banking services, health tips, and other useful resources:
Jeremiah 33:3 Call unto me, and I will answer thee, and show thee great and mighty things, which thou knowest not.

The Bible could say more than it does BUT
The Bible doesn't say more than it says.
The Bible says what it means and means what it says.

[link to www.jesus-is-savior.com]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78198545
Canada
03/06/2020 12:42 AM
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Re: COVID-19 is SARS only way MORE CONTAGIOUS!!!
Bat SARS -> Pangolin HIV + SARS -> Human COVID-19 -> Human COVID-19 L-type
JADR+

User ID: 78323737
Australia
03/06/2020 12:44 AM
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Re: COVID-19 is SARS only way MORE CONTAGIOUS!!!
SARS and MERS are different than COVID-19.

All experts (including the China CDC) agree they are different.

COVID-19 is more contagious, but less deadly, than SARS.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78293849


You still don’t get it.

SARS2 is more infectious than SARS1 and the condition it causes is covid-19.

Yes, SARS2 only has a kill rate of about 2% compared to 10% for SARS1, but 2% is enough to eff up the global economy but good.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78572710


that's not even true anymore

SARS2 kills at rate greater than 6%
 Quoting: JADR+


No, I don’t believe that at all.
There are too many thousands of cases out there that we don’t know about.

Here, read this.
[link to www.nytimes.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78572710


And there are many deaths you don't know about.

Just look at the South Korean & Italian numbers.

Just look at outside of China numbers ...
I'm a J & proud zio.

OrangeManBad NFTs: [link to opensea.io (secure)]

FE Challenge: Provide a formula which calculates the exact distance between 2 GPS coordinates that does not use the Earth's radius of 6,371 km in it's assumptions

JADR+
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78572710
United States
03/06/2020 12:47 AM
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Re: COVID-19 is SARS only way MORE CONTAGIOUS!!!
...


You still don’t get it.

SARS2 is more infectious than SARS1 and the condition it causes is covid-19.

Yes, SARS2 only has a kill rate of about 2% compared to 10% for SARS1, but 2% is enough to eff up the global economy but good.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78572710


that's not even true anymore

SARS2 kills at rate greater than 6%
 Quoting: JADR+


No, I don’t believe that at all.
There are too many thousands of cases out there that we don’t know about.

Here, read this.
[link to www.nytimes.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78572710


And there are many deaths you don't know about.

Just look at the South Korean & Italian numbers.

Just look at outside of China numbers ...
 Quoting: JADR+


South Korea has been doing a great job testing.
What is their CFR?
I don’t know, you tell me.
JADR+

User ID: 78323737
Australia
03/06/2020 12:48 AM
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Re: COVID-19 is SARS only way MORE CONTAGIOUS!!!
...


that's not even true anymore

SARS2 kills at rate greater than 6%
 Quoting: JADR+


No, I don’t believe that at all.
There are too many thousands of cases out there that we don’t know about.

Here, read this.
[link to www.nytimes.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78572710


And there are many deaths you don't know about.

Just look at the South Korean & Italian numbers.

Just look at outside of China numbers ...
 Quoting: JADR+


South Korea has been doing a great job testing.
What is their CFR?
I don’t know, you tell me.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78572710


[link to www.worldometers.info (secure)]

How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak
At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude [...]

A precise estimate of the case fatality rate is therefore impossible at present.
2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): estimating the case fatality rate – a word of caution - Battegay Manue et al., Swiss Med Wkly, February 7, 2020


The case fatality rate (CFR) represents the proportion of cases who eventually die from a disease.

Once an epidemic has ended, it is calculated with the formula: deaths / cases.

But while an epidemic is still ongoing, as it is the case with the current novel coronavirus outbreak, this formula is, at the very least, "naïve" and can be "misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a non negligible proportion of patients." [8]

(Methods for Estimating the Case Fatality Ratio for a Novel, Emerging Infectious Disease - Ghani et al, American Journal of Epidemiology).

In other words, current deaths belong to a total case figure of the past, not to the current case figure in which the outcome (recovery or death) of a proportion (the most recent cases) hasn't yet been determined.

The correct formula, therefore, would appear to be:

CFR = deaths at day.x / cases at day.x-{T}
(where T = average time period from case confirmation to death)

This would constitute a fair attempt to use values for cases and deaths belonging to the same group of patients.

One issue can be that of determining whether there is enough data to estimate T with any precision, but it is certainly not T = 0 (what is implicitly used when applying the formula current deaths / current cases to determine CFR during an ongoing outbreak).

Let's take, for example, the data at the end of February 8, 2020: 813 deaths (cumulative total) and 37,552 cases (cumulative total) worldwide.

If we use the formula (deaths / cases) we get:

813 / 37,552 = 2.2% CFR (flawed formula).

With a conservative estimate of T = 7 days as the average period from case confirmation to death, we would correct the above formula by using February 1 cumulative cases, which were 14,381, in the denominator:

Feb. 8 deaths / Feb. 1 cases = 813 / 14,381 = 5.7% CFR (correct formula, and estimating T=7).

IT could be estimated by simply looking at the value of (current total deaths + current total recovered) and pair it with a case total in the past that has the same value. For the above formula, the matching dates would be January 26/27, providing an estimate for T of 12 to 13 days. This method of estimating T uses the same logic of the following method, and therefore will yield the same result.

An alternative method, which has the advantage of not having to estimate a variable, and that is mentioned in the American Journal of Epidemiology study cited previously as a simple method that nevertheless could work reasonably well if the hazards of death and recovery at any time t measured from admission to the hospital, conditional on an event occurring at time t, are proportional, would be to use the formula:

CFR = deaths / (deaths + recovered)

which, with the latest data available, would be equal to:

3,385 / (3,385 + 55,632) = 6% CFR (worldwide)

If we now exclude cases in mainland China, using current data on deaths and recovered cases, we get:

343 / (343 + 1,877) = 15.5% CFR (outside of mainland China)


Now let's look at South Korea:

CFR=deaths / (deaths + recovered)
=40/(40+135) = 22%



So right now ... it appears the world is facing a pandemic with 6% to 15% death rate.
I'm a J & proud zio.

OrangeManBad NFTs: [link to opensea.io (secure)]

FE Challenge: Provide a formula which calculates the exact distance between 2 GPS coordinates that does not use the Earth's radius of 6,371 km in it's assumptions

JADR+
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78572710
United States
03/06/2020 12:53 AM
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Re: COVID-19 is SARS only way MORE CONTAGIOUS!!!
...


No, I don’t believe that at all.
There are too many thousands of cases out there that we don’t know about.

Here, read this.
[link to www.nytimes.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78572710


And there are many deaths you don't know about.

Just look at the South Korean & Italian numbers.

Just look at outside of China numbers ...
 Quoting: JADR+


South Korea has been doing a great job testing.
What is their CFR?
I don’t know, you tell me.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78572710


[link to www.worldometers.info (secure)]

How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak
At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude [...]

A precise estimate of the case fatality rate is therefore impossible at present.
2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): estimating the case fatality rate – a word of caution - Battegay Manue et al., Swiss Med Wkly, February 7, 2020


The case fatality rate (CFR) represents the proportion of cases who eventually die from a disease.

Once an epidemic has ended, it is calculated with the formula: deaths / cases.

But while an epidemic is still ongoing, as it is the case with the current novel coronavirus outbreak, this formula is, at the very least, "naïve" and can be "misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a non negligible proportion of patients." [8]

(Methods for Estimating the Case Fatality Ratio for a Novel, Emerging Infectious Disease - Ghani et al, American Journal of Epidemiology).

In other words, current deaths belong to a total case figure of the past, not to the current case figure in which the outcome (recovery or death) of a proportion (the most recent cases) hasn't yet been determined.

The correct formula, therefore, would appear to be:

CFR = deaths at day.x / cases at day.x-{T}
(where T = average time period from case confirmation to death)

This would constitute a fair attempt to use values for cases and deaths belonging to the same group of patients.

One issue can be that of determining whether there is enough data to estimate T with any precision, but it is certainly not T = 0 (what is implicitly used when applying the formula current deaths / current cases to determine CFR during an ongoing outbreak).

Let's take, for example, the data at the end of February 8, 2020: 813 deaths (cumulative total) and 37,552 cases (cumulative total) worldwide.

If we use the formula (deaths / cases) we get:

813 / 37,552 = 2.2% CFR (flawed formula).

With a conservative estimate of T = 7 days as the average period from case confirmation to death, we would correct the above formula by using February 1 cumulative cases, which were 14,381, in the denominator:

Feb. 8 deaths / Feb. 1 cases = 813 / 14,381 = 5.7% CFR (correct formula, and estimating T=7).

IT could be estimated by simply looking at the value of (current total deaths + current total recovered) and pair it with a case total in the past that has the same value. For the above formula, the matching dates would be January 26/27, providing an estimate for T of 12 to 13 days. This method of estimating T uses the same logic of the following method, and therefore will yield the same result.

An alternative method, which has the advantage of not having to estimate a variable, and that is mentioned in the American Journal of Epidemiology study cited previously as a simple method that nevertheless could work reasonably well if the hazards of death and recovery at any time t measured from admission to the hospital, conditional on an event occurring at time t, are proportional, would be to use the formula:

CFR = deaths / (deaths + recovered)

which, with the latest data available, would be equal to:

3,385 / (3,385 + 55,632) = 6% CFR (worldwide)

If we now exclude cases in mainland China, using current data on deaths and recovered cases, we get:

343 / (343 + 1,877) = 15.5% CFR (outside of mainland China)


Now let's look at South Korea:

CFR=deaths / (deaths + recovered)
=40/(40+135) = 22%



So right now ... it appears the world is facing a pandemic with 6% to 15% death rate.
 Quoting: JADR+


Calling BULLSHIT

bsflag

South Korea’s fatality rate is only 0.6%
[link to www.businessinsider.com (secure)]

That’s much worse than seasonal flu but it’s not DOOM.

And keep in mind that they’re Asian and therefore probably more vulnerable genetically than Europeans.





GLP