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US will run out of hospital beds by May 6 (must read!)

 
Shaun Kaven
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03/08/2020 06:07 AM

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US will run out of hospital beds by May 6 (must read!)
This is a great analysis and MUST READ. I summarized below but for the full thread click:

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

It breaks down like this: (courtesy of Liz Specht, PhD Biologist)

I think most people aren’t aware of the risk of systemic healthcare failure due to COVID19 because they simply haven’t run the numbers yet. Let’s talk math.

Let’s conservatively assume that there are 2,000 current cases in the US today, March 6th. This is about 8x the number of confirmed (lab-diagnosed) cases. We know there is substantial under-Dx due to lack of test kits; I’ll address implications later of under-/over-estimate.

We can expect that we’ll continue to see a doubling of cases every 6 days (this is a typical doubling time across several epidemiological studies). Here I mean *actual* cases. Confirmed cases may appear to rise faster in the short term due to new test kit rollouts.

We’re looking at about 1M US cases by the end of April, 2M by ~May 5, 4M by ~May 11, and so on.

Nothing burgers: I know that exponentials are hard to grasp, but this is how they go...

... continued in next comment ...
“A government big enough to give you everything you want is strong enough to take everything that you have”, Thomas Jefferson
Shaun Kaven  (OP)

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03/08/2020 06:08 AM

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Re: US will run out of hospital beds by May 6 (must read!)
As the healthcare system begins to saturate under this case load, it will become increasingly hard to detect, track, and contain new transmission chains. In absence of extreme interventions, this likely won’t slow significantly until hitting >>1% of susceptible population.

What does a case load of this size mean for healthcare system? We’ll examine just two factors — hospital beds and masks — among many, many other things that will be impacted.

The US has about 2.8 hospital beds per 1000 people. With a population of 330M, this is ~1M beds. At any given time, 65% of those beds are already occupied. That leaves about 330k beds available nationwide (perhaps a bit fewer this time of year with regular flu season, etc)

Let’s trust Italy’s numbers and assume that about 10% of cases are serious enough to require hospitalization. (Keep in mind that for many patients, hospitalization lasts for *weeks* — in other words, turnover will be *very* slow as beds fill with COVID19 patients)

By this estimate, by about May 8th, all open hospital beds in the US will be filled. (This says nothing, of course, about whether these beds are suitable for isolation of patients with a highly infectious virus.)
“A government big enough to give you everything you want is strong enough to take everything that you have”, Thomas Jefferson
Shaun Kaven  (OP)

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03/08/2020 06:10 AM

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Re: US will run out of hospital beds by May 6 (must read!)
Here’s the key. If we’re wrong by a factor of two regarding the fraction of severe cases, that only changes the timeline of bed saturation by 6 days in either direction. If 20% of cases require hospitalization, we run out of beds by ~May 2nd. (note from Shaun: even if the math is off some, the date is still May)

If only 5% of cases require it, we can make it until ~May 14th. 2.5% gets us to May 20th. This, of course, assumes that there is no uptick in demand for beds from *other* (non-COVID19) causes, which seems like a dubious assumption.

As healthcare system becomes increasingly burdened, Rx shortages, etc, people w/ chronic conditions that are normally well-managed may find themselves slipping into severe states of medical distress requiring intensive care & hospitalization. But let’s ignore that for now.

There are about 18M healthcare workers in the US. Let’s assume only 6M HCW are working on any given day. (This is likely an underestimate as most people work most days of the week, but again, I’m playing conservative at every turn.)

As COVID19 cases saturate virtually every state and county, which seems likely to happen any day now, it will soon be irresponsible for all HCWs to not wear a mask. These HCWs would burn through N95 stockpile in 2 days if each HCW only got ONE mask per day.

We could go on and on about thousands of factors – # of ventilators, or even simple things like saline drip bags. You see where this is going.

Importantly, I cannot stress this enough: even if I’m wrong – even VERY wrong – about core assumptions like % of severe cases or current case #, it only changes the timeline by days or weeks. This is how exponential growth in an immunologically naïve population works.

Zero Hedge has an article about this as well here:

[link to www.zerohedge.com (secure)]
“A government big enough to give you everything you want is strong enough to take everything that you have”, Thomas Jefferson
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2020 06:12 AM
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Re: US will run out of hospital beds by May 6 (must read!)
Shaun Kaven  (OP)

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03/08/2020 06:15 AM

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Re: US will run out of hospital beds by May 6 (must read!)
siren2 ahhh siren2

This is by far the best analysis that I have read about COVID since the whole thing has started.

And for you nothing burgees who day that May is too far out, learn how math works. These things gain momentum and are exponential. It doesn’t happen overnight.

We’re all trapped in a slow motion train wreck. Get prepped. The author leaves us with this:

“ Worst case, I’m massively wrong and you now have a huge bag of rice and black beans to burn through over the next few months and enough Robitussin to trip out. ”

Oh yeah, and:

One more thought: you’ve probably seen multiple respected epidemiologists have estimated that 20-70% of world will be infected within the next year. If you use 6-day doubling rate I mentioned above, we land at ~2-6 billion infected by sometime in July of this year.
“A government big enough to give you everything you want is strong enough to take everything that you have”, Thomas Jefferson
Shaun Kaven  (OP)

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03/08/2020 06:33 AM

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Re: US will run out of hospital beds by May 6 (must read!)
bump

This is not some hypothetical, fear-mongering, worst-case scenario. This is reality, as far as anyone can tell with the current available data.
“A government big enough to give you everything you want is strong enough to take everything that you have”, Thomas Jefferson
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2020 06:34 AM
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Re: US will run out of hospital beds by May 6 (must read!)
bump

This is not some hypothetical, fear-mongering, worst-case scenario. This is reality, as far as anyone can tell with the current available data.
 Quoting: Shaun Kaven


"Reality" according to some e-fame chasing thot.
Shaun Kaven  (OP)

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03/08/2020 07:09 AM

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Re: US will run out of hospital beds by May 6 (must read!)
bump

This is not some hypothetical, fear-mongering, worst-case scenario. This is reality, as far as anyone can tell with the current available data.
 Quoting: Shaun Kaven


"Reality" according to some e-fame chasing thot.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77797825


Don’t criticize, make your counter point. Tell us where she’s wrong. Her logic and math look awfully good.
“A government big enough to give you everything you want is strong enough to take everything that you have”, Thomas Jefferson
Shaun Kaven  (OP)

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03/08/2020 08:12 AM

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Re: US will run out of hospital beds by May 6 (must read!)
My final bump

This should be pinned but if not at least on the front page!
“A government big enough to give you everything you want is strong enough to take everything that you have”, Thomas Jefferson
beau voir

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03/08/2020 09:12 AM
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Re: US will run out of hospital beds by May 6 (must read!)
My final bump

This should be pinned but if not at least on the front page!
 Quoting: Shaun Kaven


BOOM!
beau voir
Tangy

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03/08/2020 02:35 PM

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Re: US will run out of hospital beds by May 6 (must read!)
bump to add this, who she recommends watching.

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

Liz Specht
@LizSpecht
·
Mar 6
Addendum: to anyone who found this useful or interesting, highly recommend you follow @trvrb
who actually does modeling and forecasting for a living. This thread is a great place to start:

[link to twitter.com (secure)]
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2020 02:40 PM
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Re: US will run out of hospital beds by May 6 (must read!)
Buy the living daylights out of companies that do hospice care and in home nursing NOW. scheming
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2020 02:46 PM
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Re: US will run out of hospital beds by May 6 (must read!)
Hospitals have been taking delivery of large tents from the military since Monday they already know they ain't going to be operational in weeks no way they make to may .
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2020 02:47 PM
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Re: US will run out of hospital beds by May 6 (must read!)
well duh

the US only has about 100,000 ICU beds

lmao, most folks are just too goddamn stupid to grasp the consequences of this
Bush Master
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03/08/2020 02:49 PM

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Re: US will run out of hospital beds by May 6 (must read!)
bump
Damn the torpedoes! Full speed ahead!

Oh,and screw tepco & the V.A.



captain
Thread: GLP-Jukebox
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03/08/2020 02:51 PM
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Re: US will run out of hospital beds by May 6 (must read!)
Nutmeg and Kolobob shilling it's all a hoax in 3-2-1
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2020 02:53 PM
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Re: US will run out of hospital beds by May 6 (must read!)
LOL! Nothingburger! Just the sniffles! I dont know anything about medicine but this is nothing!!!
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2020 02:54 PM
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Re: US will run out of hospital beds by May 6 (must read!)
LOL the sniffles dont kill!!! Nothingburger!!! I'm safe in my moms basement!!!
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2020 02:55 PM
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Re: US will run out of hospital beds by May 6 (must read!)
I’ve said this before, governments will begin to see culling mass segments of the population as the only way to stop the spread. This would include the infected and those suspected regardless of symptoms. The souls on the cruise ships are lost.
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2020 02:57 PM
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Re: US will run out of hospital beds by May 6 (must read!)
I'm supposed to ship out for the AF in May what do you guys think the chances of them delaying boot camp are? I don't wanna be around a bunch of sick people and catch this shit
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2020 02:58 PM
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Re: US will run out of hospital beds by May 6 (must read!)
I'm supposed to ship out for the AF in May what do you guys think the chances of them delaying boot camp are? I don't wanna be around a bunch of sick people and catch this shit
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77963312


If anything they will call you up sooner.
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2020 03:00 PM
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Re: US will run out of hospital beds by May 6 (must read!)
I'm supposed to ship out for the AF in May what do you guys think the chances of them delaying boot camp are? I don't wanna be around a bunch of sick people and catch this shit
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77963312


If anything they will call you up sooner.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77410013


I hope to fuck not technically in still in the DEP so if this goes south real fast I'm gonna drop it and reenlist after the smoke clears
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2020 03:01 PM
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Re: US will run out of hospital beds by May 6 (must read!)
Unlike 99 percent of the world the US doesn't have any national healthcare system.

So I don't think it will play out the same here as it is in Europe, asia, and the middle east.

Most people in the US will just not go to the hospital at all until they are on death's door, because they don't have insurance or because they can't pay the deductible or copays for insurance they do have.

I imagine a lot of people will just die at home.
wYw
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03/08/2020 03:02 PM
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Re: US will run out of hospital beds by May 6 (must read!)
bump

This is not some hypothetical, fear-mongering, worst-case scenario. This is reality, as far as anyone can tell with the current available data.
 Quoting: Shaun Kaven


The irrefutable proof below is from my own family

The Trump Administration is leading from behind intentionally to make sure this crisis doesn’t go to waste

I have no problem confirming it’s authenticity to the mods if they will allow me to create a member profile for verification

We are being lied to on an industrial scale and the truth is disappearing to protect this Administration instead of protecting the citizenry

No SEROLOGICAL TEST had been developed yet to detect COVID-19 in patients that are ASYMPTOMATIC despite what this Administration has been telling you

Those 72 labs in those 48 states are not testing for the virus yet because their labs haven’t been brought online yet

The reason why is because those labs are not BSL-4 equipped yet

They will be but they’re not ready and won’t be for quite some time

Prove me wrong

[link to imgur.com (secure)]
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2020 03:04 PM
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Re: US will run out of hospital beds by May 6 (must read!)
Clinicaltrials.gov ::: Coronavirus ::: courtesy of Friends of A R Bordon
Clinicaltrials.gov ::: Coronavirus ::: courtesy of Friends of A R Bordon

You put in under Condition or disease

Coronavirus

Country : USA or leave it blank

....

Then you will all figure out what the USA and China plus other countries are testing as possible Drugs or Vaccines against the COVID -19, the Coronavirus !


Isn't that cool lmao .... we get smarter !


" ClinicalTrials.gov is a registry and results database of publicly and privately supported clinical studies of human participants conducted around the world.
Explore 332,417 research studies in all 50 states and in 209 countries.

ClinicalTrials.gov is a resource provided by the U
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2020 03:05 PM
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Re: US will run out of hospital beds by May 6 (must read!)
[link to www.clinicaltrials.gov (secure)]



[link to www.clinicaltrials.gov (secure)]



[link to www.clinicaltrials.gov (secure)]



[link to www.clinicaltrials.gov (secure)]




[link to www.clinicaltrials.gov (secure)]
Halcyon Dayz

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03/08/2020 03:21 PM
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Re: US will run out of hospital beds by May 6 (must read!)
kimdowtcwy
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03/08/2020 03:30 PM
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Re: US will run out of hospital beds by May 6 (must read!)
Compete disinformation

Nothing just continues to double unabated, which is central thesis to her calculations.

Worthless
Lupe_Ate_My_Taco's

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03/08/2020 03:32 PM

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Re: US will run out of hospital beds by May 6 (must read!)
This is a great analysis and MUST READ. I summarized below but for the full thread click:

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

It breaks down like this: (courtesy of Liz Specht, PhD Biologist)

I think most people aren’t aware of the risk of systemic healthcare failure due to COVID19 because they simply haven’t run the numbers yet. Let’s talk math.

Let’s conservatively assume that there are 2,000 current cases in the US today, March 6th. This is about 8x the number of confirmed (lab-diagnosed) cases. We know there is substantial under-Dx due to lack of test kits; I’ll address implications later of under-/over-estimate.

We can expect that we’ll continue to see a doubling of cases every 6 days (this is a typical doubling time across several epidemiological studies). Here I mean *actual* cases. Confirmed cases may appear to rise faster in the short term due to new test kit rollouts.

We’re looking at about 1M US cases by the end of April, 2M by ~May 5, 4M by ~May 11, and so on.

Nothing burgers: I know that exponentials are hard to grasp, but this is how they go...

... continued in next comment ...
 Quoting: Shaun Kaven


most hospitals are already at full capacity. I think your numbers are way off.
XRP & XLM

XRP = eXchange Rate Peg (Wholesale)
XLM = eXchange Liquidity Measure (Retail)

NESARA / GESARA
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2020 03:33 PM
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Re: US will run out of hospital beds by May 6 (must read!)
bump

This is not some hypothetical, fear-mongering, worst-case scenario. This is reality, as far as anyone can tell with the current available data.
 Quoting: Shaun Kaven


The irrefutable proof below is from my own family

The Trump Administration is leading from behind intentionally to make sure this crisis doesn’t go to waste

I have no problem confirming it’s authenticity to the mods if they will allow me to create a member profile for verification

We are being lied to on an industrial scale and the truth is disappearing to protect this Administration instead of protecting the citizenry

No SEROLOGICAL TEST had been developed yet to detect COVID-19 in patients that are ASYMPTOMATIC despite what this Administration has been telling you

Those 72 labs in those 48 states are not testing for the virus yet because their labs haven’t been brought online yet

The reason why is because those labs are not BSL-4 equipped yet

They will be but they’re not ready and won’t be for quite some time

Prove me wrong

[link to imgur.com (secure)]
 Quoting: wYw 76426258


Not worth the effort to demonstrate how dangerously ignorant you are of immunology and of how these test are done. Suffice to say you don’t need BSL4 facility to do a test.

Fail.
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2020 03:33 PM
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Re: US will run out of hospital beds by May 6 (must read!)
son, they are already talking about who to save,,,@ major hos





GLP