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US will run out of hospital beds by May 6 (must read!)

 
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78583312
United Kingdom
03/08/2020 06:56 PM
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Re: US will run out of hospital beds by May 6 (must read!)
This is a great analysis and MUST READ. I summarized below but for the full thread click:

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

It breaks down like this: (courtesy of Liz Specht, PhD Biologist)

I think most people aren’t aware of the risk of systemic healthcare failure due to COVID19 because they simply haven’t run the numbers yet. Let’s talk math.

Let’s conservatively assume that there are 2,000 current cases in the US today, March 6th. This is about 8x the number of confirmed (lab-diagnosed) cases. We know there is substantial under-Dx due to lack of test kits; I’ll address implications later of under-/over-estimate.

We can expect that we’ll continue to see a doubling of cases every 6 days (this is a typical doubling time across several epidemiological studies). Here I mean *actual* cases. Confirmed cases may appear to rise faster in the short term due to new test kit rollouts.

We’re looking at about 1M US cases by the end of April, 2M by ~May 5, 4M by ~May 11, and so on.

Nothing burgers: I know that exponentials are hard to grasp, but this is how they go...

... continued in next comment ...
 Quoting: Shaun Kaven


But, but, but, Trump said the virus is a nothing burger.
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2020 06:58 PM
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Re: US will run out of hospital beds by May 6 (must read!)
LOL! Nothingburger! Just the sniffles! I dont know anything about medicine but this is nothing!!!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 75025309


rere23
Anonymous Coward
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Netherlands
03/08/2020 07:20 PM
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Re: US will run out of hospital beds by May 6 (must read!)
I just want to clarify things.

Hospitals beds aren't a large giant pot where you can lump everyone into the mix.

It's regional.

Generally, crews will not fly or ambulance someone over 30-50 miles to another facility unless it is considered a EMTALA situation.


So you must look at beds from the immediate areas of hospital access.

Northern California different than Oregon, but northern Oregon does overload with Seattle Metropolitan area. So the ability for patients to overload their hospital and spill over to the next county is available or state depending on the true access and availability.

South Korea is a good example of this where we are very certain that local hospitals were saturated and spilover occured. But because of their efforts, their numbers appeared to have plateaued and are going downwards.

If there is no such efforts in the united states, beds will exhaust at a regional level relative to when the critical mass of ongoing infections occured. If there is confirmed unknown tranmission cases, that is the beginning.

Thread: Mortality Rates will Skyrocket once America's medical system is overloaded to WUHAN/IRAN levels
Shaun Kaven  (OP)

User ID: 71498518
Colombia
03/08/2020 07:51 PM

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Re: US will run out of hospital beds by May 6 (must read!)
Yep, by the 12th of May denial of the situation will be impossible without insanity.
 Quoting: bhdz71


Indeed.

The nothing burgers want a real date, we’ll there you have it. Or sooner, as Trin wrote, because she assumes doubling every 6 days but it has been doubling every three.
“A government big enough to give you everything you want is strong enough to take everything that you have”, Thomas Jefferson
MKPitBull

User ID: 78489932
United States
03/08/2020 07:58 PM

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Re: US will run out of hospital beds by May 6 (must read!)
I'm supposed to ship out for the AF in May what do you guys think the chances of them delaying boot camp are? I don't wanna be around a bunch of sick people and catch this shit
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77963312


Don’t worry the AF will give you about 40 different kinds of vaccinations and shots. You’ll be good till end of your enlistment. The military gets the good stuff. chuckle
"Come get some"
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 53835571
United States
03/08/2020 08:11 PM
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Re: US will run out of hospital beds by May 6 (must read!)
This is a great analysis and MUST READ. I summarized below but for the full thread click:

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

It breaks down like this: (courtesy of Liz Specht, PhD Biologist)

I think most people aren’t aware of the risk of systemic healthcare failure due to COVID19 because they simply haven’t run the numbers yet. Let’s talk math.

Let’s conservatively assume that there are 2,000 current cases in the US today, March 6th. This is about 8x the number of confirmed (lab-diagnosed) cases. We know there is substantial under-Dx due to lack of test kits; I’ll address implications later of under-/over-estimate.

We can expect that we’ll continue to see a doubling of cases every 6 days (this is a typical doubling time across several epidemiological studies). Here I mean *actual* cases. Confirmed cases may appear to rise faster in the short term due to new test kit rollouts.

We’re looking at about 1M US cases by the end of April, 2M by ~May 5, 4M by ~May 11, and so on.

Nothing burgers: I know that exponentials are hard to grasp, but this is how they go...

... continued in next comment ...
 Quoting: Shaun Kaven


I might be wrong, but from what I have heard I do not think that the virus is able to survive nearly as well in warmer temperatures. We are so close to spring now in the US and the entire country is starting to warm up for the most part now, and barring some ice age type of event it definitely will in the months to come. Even though this virus seems like it tends to be sensationalized, I believe it is pretty similar to the flu in a lot of ways given that just as many people if not more die of the flu each year. It just doesn't get reported by the media or sensationalized like the Corona Virus because the flu isn't exactly new from my understanding of things. I may be completely wrong about this, but from my understanding and the things that I've read and/or heard I get the feeling that this really isn't going to be any bigger than any of the other viruses that have hit humanity and passed in the past (and that includes all the terrible ones like the Black Death - meaning that I don't think it's nearly as bad or will be nearly as bad as anything like that).





GLP