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Message Subject US will run out of hospital beds by May 6 (must read!)
Poster Handle Anonymous Coward
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This is a great analysis and MUST READ. I summarized below but for the full thread click:

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

It breaks down like this: (courtesy of Liz Specht, PhD Biologist)

I think most people aren’t aware of the risk of systemic healthcare failure due to COVID19 because they simply haven’t run the numbers yet. Let’s talk math.

Let’s conservatively assume that there are 2,000 current cases in the US today, March 6th. This is about 8x the number of confirmed (lab-diagnosed) cases. We know there is substantial under-Dx due to lack of test kits; I’ll address implications later of under-/over-estimate.

We can expect that we’ll continue to see a doubling of cases every 6 days (this is a typical doubling time across several epidemiological studies). Here I mean *actual* cases. Confirmed cases may appear to rise faster in the short term due to new test kit rollouts.

We’re looking at about 1M US cases by the end of April, 2M by ~May 5, 4M by ~May 11, and so on.

Nothing burgers: I know that exponentials are hard to grasp, but this is how they go...

... continued in next comment ...
 Quoting: Shaun Kaven


I might be wrong, but from what I have heard I do not think that the virus is able to survive nearly as well in warmer temperatures. We are so close to spring now in the US and the entire country is starting to warm up for the most part now, and barring some ice age type of event it definitely will in the months to come. Even though this virus seems like it tends to be sensationalized, I believe it is pretty similar to the flu in a lot of ways given that just as many people if not more die of the flu each year. It just doesn't get reported by the media or sensationalized like the Corona Virus because the flu isn't exactly new from my understanding of things. I may be completely wrong about this, but from my understanding and the things that I've read and/or heard I get the feeling that this really isn't going to be any bigger than any of the other viruses that have hit humanity and passed in the past (and that includes all the terrible ones like the Black Death - meaning that I don't think it's nearly as bad or will be nearly as bad as anything like that).
 
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