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The REAL COVID death rates as they stand now. The 3% and 6% crap is nothing but lies and propaganda.

 
YouAreDreaming

User ID: 77990689
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03/11/2020 04:45 PM
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Re: The REAL COVID death rates as they stand now. The 3% and 6% crap is nothing but lies and propaganda.
OP is right, we had nurses and doctors in Wuhan leaking this shit was 60% fatal.

Iranian doctors saying this is 70% fatal.

Italy doctors were saying its much higher than 20%...

People on the front lines are saying the deaths are high. But the sheep who listen to the ministry of propaganda and trust the lies are going to either end up with out preps, locked into quarantine or infected and without treatment because the hospitals are all fucking full and overwhelmed like they are in all cluster outbreak areas.

If you didn't prep, or future plan for this you are likely going to just end up dead or in some quarantine camp crying is this real? Is it real?
PhobiaDHS  (OP)
LLLLLEEEETS GET READY TO RUMMMMMMMBLE!

User ID: 77704310
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03/11/2020 04:46 PM

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Re: The REAL COVID death rates as they stand now. The 3% and 6% crap is nothing but lies and propaganda.
Learn to math OP. cruise
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77938233


Without access to any of the generational data on a PER CASE basis, this is as good as you can get.

We really get to make a decision here.

Use this method to calculate death rates and arrive at a real number based on concluded cases. This number will be higher than the reality in many cases because deaths happen faster than recoveries with this disease. In short, things will catch up and normalize.

Using the deaths/total infections equation will provide an artificially low number until the very last concluded case.

Both methods have flaws. At least mine provides us numbers based on concluded data. The shit everyone else is throwing around provides fucking fairy tale numbers so nobody panics.
Ohio76
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03/11/2020 04:51 PM
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Re: The REAL COVID death rates as they stand now. The 3% and 6% crap is nothing but lies and propaganda.
OP is right, the math bears out, you can get the data of of the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus map. I understand how he came to his figures. The death rate of a pandemic, or CFR that you are seeing right now is the absolute bare minimum death rate for this disease. You have to extrapolate not just what had happened, but what will happen. If you have 100 cases and 3 deaths, but 7 recovered, your death rate isn’t 3%, but a MINIMUM of 3%. Now you have 90 cases unresolved, one could therefore watch the next 10 cases and if they follow suit, (3 dead , 7 recovered) then you can draw a logical and reasonable inference that the death rate is 30% OP is right.
russ59dd
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03/11/2020 04:52 PM
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Re: The REAL COVID death rates as they stand now. The 3% and 6% crap is nothing but lies and propaganda.
OP from your title I thought you were coming at this from that POV of the 0.5% - 2% death rate
which I do think is BS
Anonymous Coward
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03/11/2020 04:52 PM
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Re: The REAL COVID death rates as they stand now. The 3% and 6% crap is nothing but lies and propaganda.
I'm with you OP. This equation has been stated repeatedly on this site, but as you can tell by the commenters here, it's over their heads.

There are tremendous resources going into getting people recovered right now - resources that won't be available for cases down the road.

It's going to get very ugly.
Anonymous Coward
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03/11/2020 04:53 PM
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Re: The REAL COVID death rates as they stand now. The 3% and 6% crap is nothing but lies and propaganda.
China (FAKE): 5.3%
Italy: 46.5%
Iran: 10.6%
S. Korea: 17.9%
Spain: 26.2%
France: 73.3%
Germany: 10.7%
United States: 78.4%
World wide w/ China #s: 6.2%
World wide excluding China: 20.9%


I don't know where all the 3 and 6% bull shit came from but it needs to be checked with a quickness.

NOTE: Numbers were taken at approximately 12:00CST on 3/11/2020 from [link to gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com (secure)]
 Quoting: PhobiaDHS


I'm not a math major but my calculator says...

100 *(Total # deaths (4591) / Total infected (124908) = 3.67%.

100 * (Total # recovered (66702)/ Total infected (124908) = 53.4%

From your source.

Besides of which I would like the full demographic breakdown by, age,race, and any other mitigating data that may be used to see what the true trends are.

Op please post your math, not just percentages from thin air.
PhobiaDHS  (OP)
LLLLLEEEETS GET READY TO RUMMMMMMMBLE!

User ID: 77704310
United States
03/11/2020 04:56 PM

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Re: The REAL COVID death rates as they stand now. The 3% and 6% crap is nothing but lies and propaganda.
China (FAKE): 5.3%
Italy: 46.5%
Iran: 10.6%
S. Korea: 17.9%
Spain: 26.2%
France: 73.3%
Germany: 10.7%
United States: 78.4%
World wide w/ China #s: 6.2%
World wide excluding China: 20.9%


I don't know where all the 3 and 6% bull shit came from but it needs to be checked with a quickness.

NOTE: Numbers were taken at approximately 12:00CST on 3/11/2020 from [link to gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com (secure)]
 Quoting: PhobiaDHS


I'm not a math major but my calculator says...

100 *(Total # deaths (4591) / Total infected (124908) = 3.67%.

100 * (Total # recovered (66702)/ Total infected (124908) = 53.4%

From your source.

Besides of which I would like the full demographic breakdown by, age,race, and any other mitigating data that may be used to see what the true trends are.

Op please post your math, not just percentages from thin air.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12838400


It isn't a long thread and I have addressed your questions at least once already. Catch up quick and if you have any questions after reading my responses prior, we can address them.
Ohio76
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03/11/2020 04:59 PM
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Re: The REAL COVID death rates as they stand now. The 3% and 6% crap is nothing but lies and propaganda.
What theses simpletons may realize with cold dawning horror, is they are not factoring in the active cases, and active hospitalizations, just dead/recovered. They don’t understand medians, or laws of averaging. And those sunny ,bright numbers, are PRE collapse. Then they skyrocket. OP is right.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 24499233
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03/11/2020 05:00 PM
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Re: The REAL COVID death rates as they stand now. The 3% and 6% crap is nothing but lies and propaganda.
OP is right, the math bears out, you can get the data of of the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus map. I understand how he came to his figures. The death rate of a pandemic, or CFR that you are seeing right now is the absolute bare minimum death rate for this disease. You have to extrapolate not just what had happened, but what will happen. If you have 100 cases and 3 deaths, but 7 recovered, your death rate isn’t 3%, but a MINIMUM of 3%. Now you have 90 cases unresolved, one could therefore watch the next 10 cases and if they follow suit, (3 dead , 7 recovered) then you can draw a logical and reasonable inference that the death rate is 30% OP is right.
 Quoting: Ohio76 78057557


Gee, I wonder if OP is going to delete my post for pointing out THAT:

1: There are not enough tests to verify how many people have it.
2: Those that have it and are not feeling sick due to it being mild.
3: Your acting like you have no idea of how TIME is affecting this calculation. Meaning, you can't calculate it without knowing how long each person as had it. IMPOSIBLE TO KNOW AS OF NOW!


So what you are doing is putting out complete FALSE information, then deleteing anyone that contradicts what you are saying.

And Don't worry, if you delete this post, I will start my own and post this with a link for this thread so that EVERYONE knows how dangerous your fear mongering panic driving TDS is using so called MAFF.
skull_fing
PhobiaDHS  (OP)
LLLLLEEEETS GET READY TO RUMMMMMMMBLE!

User ID: 77704310
United States
03/11/2020 05:07 PM

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Re: The REAL COVID death rates as they stand now. The 3% and 6% crap is nothing but lies and propaganda.
OP is right, the math bears out, you can get the data of of the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus map. I understand how he came to his figures. The death rate of a pandemic, or CFR that you are seeing right now is the absolute bare minimum death rate for this disease. You have to extrapolate not just what had happened, but what will happen. If you have 100 cases and 3 deaths, but 7 recovered, your death rate isn’t 3%, but a MINIMUM of 3%. Now you have 90 cases unresolved, one could therefore watch the next 10 cases and if they follow suit, (3 dead , 7 recovered) then you can draw a logical and reasonable inference that the death rate is 30% OP is right.
 Quoting: Ohio76 78057557


Gee, I wonder if OP is going to delete my post for pointing out THAT:

1: There are not enough tests to verify how many people have it.
2: Those that have it and are not feeling sick due to it being mild.
3: Your acting like you have no idea of how TIME is affecting this calculation. Meaning, you can't calculate it without knowing how long each person as had it. IMPOSIBLE TO KNOW AS OF NOW!


So what you are doing is putting out complete FALSE information, then deleteing anyone that contradicts what you are saying.

And Don't worry, if you delete this post, I will start my own and post this with a link for this thread so that EVERYONE knows how dangerous your fear mongering panic driving TDS is using so called MAFF.
skull_fing
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24499233


No, I deleted a couple posts because people were being dickheads without actually contributing. See, you point out specific things here. Not deleted.

Lemme respond.

1. It doesn't matter. That is an unknown just like the ultimate disposition of the unresolved cases. We don't care about unknowns right now because we have no way of filling in that data. Is it incomplete? Yes. I have said that already though and if you took the time to read the responses before you shat the bed with all this defensive drivel, you would know that.

2. Again, unknowns. See point 1.

3. I have REPEATEDLY mentioned not having access to generational or individual case data. All I am doing is calculating a death rate based on the only solid numbers around. We don't have any more so I am not going to sit here and act like we do. These are the ONLY actionable numbers available to anyone that isn't in government.

I am not fear mongering. I am doing basic math.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78161902
United States
03/11/2020 05:08 PM
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Re: The REAL COVID death rates as they stand now. The 3% and 6% crap is nothing but lies and propaganda.
Even after all this time, people quote death rates based on total cases as if they have any meaning at all. Here are the real death rates so you can see how scary this thing can be when real numbers are looked at. Especially early on.

China (FAKE): 5.3%
Italy: 46.5%
Iran: 10.6%
S. Korea: 17.9%
Spain: 26.2%
France: 73.3%
Germany: 10.7%
United States: 78.4%
World wide w/ China #s: 6.2%
World wide excluding China: 20.9%


I don't know where all the 3 and 6% bull shit came from but it needs to be checked with a quickness.

NOTE: Numbers were taken at approximately 12:00CST on 3/11/2020 from [link to gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com (secure)]
 Quoting: PhobiaDHS


None of those numbers are accurate. Closest to accurate is South Korea because they are testing everyone.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 24499233
United States
03/11/2020 05:14 PM
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Re: The REAL COVID death rates as they stand now. The 3% and 6% crap is nothing but lies and propaganda.
OP is right, the math bears out, you can get the data of of the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus map. I understand how he came to his figures. The death rate of a pandemic, or CFR that you are seeing right now is the absolute bare minimum death rate for this disease. You have to extrapolate not just what had happened, but what will happen. If you have 100 cases and 3 deaths, but 7 recovered, your death rate isn’t 3%, but a MINIMUM of 3%. Now you have 90 cases unresolved, one could therefore watch the next 10 cases and if they follow suit, (3 dead , 7 recovered) then you can draw a logical and reasonable inference that the death rate is 30% OP is right.
 Quoting: Ohio76 78057557


Gee, I wonder if OP is going to delete my post for pointing out THAT:

1: There are not enough tests to verify how many people have it.
2: Those that have it and are not feeling sick due to it being mild.
3: Your acting like you have no idea of how TIME is affecting this calculation. Meaning, you can't calculate it without knowing how long each person as had it. IMPOSIBLE TO KNOW AS OF NOW!


So what you are doing is putting out complete FALSE information, then deleteing anyone that contradicts what you are saying.

And Don't worry, if you delete this post, I will start my own and post this with a link for this thread so that EVERYONE knows how dangerous your fear mongering panic driving TDS is using so called MAFF.
skull_fing
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24499233


No, I deleted a couple posts because people were being dickheads without actually contributing. See, you point out specific things here. Not deleted.

Lemme respond.

1. It doesn't matter. That is an unknown just like the ultimate disposition of the unresolved cases. We don't care about unknowns right now because we have no way of filling in that data. Is it incomplete? Yes. I have said that already though and if you took the time to read the responses before you shat the bed with all this defensive drivel, you would know that.

2. Again, unknowns. See point 1.

3. I have REPEATEDLY mentioned not having access to generational or individual case data. All I am doing is calculating a death rate based on the only solid numbers around. We don't have any more so I am not going to sit here and act like we do. These are the ONLY actionable numbers available to anyone that isn't in government.

I am not fear mongering. I am doing basic math.
 Quoting: PhobiaDHS


You are worse than CNN and the new york times with that BS.

Of coarse unknowns matter, and your acting inocint about it too.
PhobiaDHS  (OP)
LLLLLEEEETS GET READY TO RUMMMMMMMBLE!

User ID: 77704310
United States
03/11/2020 05:15 PM

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Re: The REAL COVID death rates as they stand now. The 3% and 6% crap is nothing but lies and propaganda.
Even after all this time, people quote death rates based on total cases as if they have any meaning at all. Here are the real death rates so you can see how scary this thing can be when real numbers are looked at. Especially early on.

China (FAKE): 5.3%
Italy: 46.5%
Iran: 10.6%
S. Korea: 17.9%
Spain: 26.2%
France: 73.3%
Germany: 10.7%
United States: 78.4%
World wide w/ China #s: 6.2%
World wide excluding China: 20.9%


I don't know where all the 3 and 6% bull shit came from but it needs to be checked with a quickness.

NOTE: Numbers were taken at approximately 12:00CST on 3/11/2020 from [link to gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com (secure)]
 Quoting: PhobiaDHS


None of those numbers are accurate. Closest to accurate is South Korea because they are testing everyone.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78161902


Well, my psychic abilities have taken a hit lately so I was forced to use the officially reported numbers like everyone else on this go around...
Jedi Qwerty

User ID: 10812896
Canada
03/11/2020 05:21 PM
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Re: The REAL COVID death rates as they stand now. The 3% and 6% crap is nothing but lies and propaganda.
Even after all this time, people quote death rates based on total cases as if they have any meaning at all. Here are the real death rates so you can see how scary this thing can be when real numbers are looked at. Especially early on.

China (FAKE): 5.3%
Italy: 46.5%
Iran: 10.6%
S. Korea: 17.9%
Spain: 26.2%
France: 73.3%
Germany: 10.7%
United States: 78.4%
World wide w/ China #s: 6.2%
World wide excluding China: 20.9%


I don't know where all the 3 and 6% bull shit came from but it needs to be checked with a quickness.
 Quoting: PhobiaDHS


Link?

If your right, Trump is lying to us.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78599329


No link. I am the one who calculated these. Not terribly difficult to do.

Deaths /(Deaths + Recovered)
 Quoting: PhobiaDHS


hesright
Standard Legal Disclaimer: But WTF do I know?

#SaveTheChildren
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 24499233
United States
03/11/2020 05:26 PM
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Re: The REAL COVID death rates as they stand now. The 3% and 6% crap is nothing but lies and propaganda.
Even after all this time, people quote death rates based on total cases as if they have any meaning at all. Here are the real death rates so you can see how scary this thing can be when real numbers are looked at. Especially early on.

China (FAKE): 5.3%
Italy: 46.5%
Iran: 10.6%
S. Korea: 17.9%
Spain: 26.2%
France: 73.3%
Germany: 10.7%
United States: 78.4%
World wide w/ China #s: 6.2%
World wide excluding China: 20.9%


I don't know where all the 3 and 6% bull shit came from but it needs to be checked with a quickness.
 Quoting: PhobiaDHS


Link?

If your right, Trump is lying to us.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78599329


No link. I am the one who calculated these. Not terribly difficult to do.

Deaths /(Deaths + Recovered)
 Quoting: PhobiaDHS


hesright
 Quoting: Jedi Qwerty


bsflag
Anonymous Coward
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United States
03/11/2020 07:03 PM
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Re: The REAL COVID death rates as they stand now. The 3% and 6% crap is nothing but lies and propaganda.
These are not simple percentage calculations, rather, extremely complex statistical calculations. Even with the best calculations, there are currently too many variables to draw conclusions with a low error rate. This series of articles is a very good read and worth the time if you are really interested.

[link to towardsdatascience.com (secure)]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 76518665
United States
03/11/2020 07:11 PM
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Re: The REAL COVID death rates as they stand now. The 3% and 6% crap is nothing but lies and propaganda.
Even after all this time, people quote death rates based on total cases as if they have any meaning at all. Here are the real death rates so you can see how scary this thing can be when real numbers are looked at. Especially early on.

China (FAKE): 5.3%
Italy: 46.5%
Iran: 10.6%
S. Korea: 17.9%
Spain: 26.2%
France: 73.3%
Germany: 10.7%
United States: 78.4%
World wide w/ China #s: 6.2%
World wide excluding China: 20.9%


I don't know where all the 3 and 6% bull shit came from but it needs to be checked with a quickness.

NOTE: Numbers were taken at approximately 12:00CST on 3/11/2020 from [link to gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com (secure)]

NOTE 2: No, I don't have generational or case data included here because nobody, not the CDC, WHO or God himself has that data right now. That shit doesn't get compiled until AFTER this is over. They may have preliminary numbers but even those are likely about as useful as just making something up this early in the game.

NOTE 3: This is a simple calculation of death rate based on reported concluded case numbers. It isn't flashy. It isn't even hard.
 Quoting: PhobiaDHS


1% is what everyone else with actual medical degrees are saying. So you doom porn on tard.





GLP