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We are living in dangerous times
🇵🇭 WHAT IF QUAD, G7 AND NATO UNITE AGAINST CHINA?
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Article by Victor Corpus (Ret. AFP Brigadier General) [1] First of 2 parts:
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THE Quad - the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue or QSD - includes India, Japan, Australia and the United States. The Group of Seven, or G7, includes Germany, France, Italy, Japan, Canada, the United Kingdom and the US. NATO, meanwhile, consists of 30 countries from Europe led by the US. Since US President Joe Biden's election to the presidency, he has succeeded in rallying the Quad, G7 and NATO to rally behind US leadership in stopping China's rise - economically, technologically as well as militarily. This piece will focus only on the military sphere. Can China be stopped militarily? Can the Quad, G7 and NATO combined defeat China militarily? These are the questions we will try to answer here.
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The current situation is reminiscent of the period in the 1840s, when practically the same Western colonial powers cut up China to pieces and forced China to trade in opium in exchange for silver, silk and porcelain. When China refused, British and French troops were ordered to burn the Summer Palace, the equivalent of tens, if not a hundred of France's Louvre Museum. This started China's "century of humiliation." Will China's history be repeated again?
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The UK, France, Germany and the Netherlands have already announced plans to send warships to the South China Sea (SCS), with the UK planning to send the HMS Queen Elizabeth aircraft carrier battle group. Way back in 2004, the US assembled seven of its aircraft carrier strike groups in the vicinity of Taiwan in the biggest naval armada ever assembled, in a naval exercise dubbed "Operation Summer Pulse." The US Navy can easily do a replay or even a bigger display of strength as the US operates up to 11 of these aircraft carrier strike groups.
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From the US perspective, now is the best time to stop China's rise while it has only two aircraft carrier strike groups compared to the US' 11. The US also maintains 6,800 nuclear warheads while that reported in China's inventory is only 270 warheads.
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US strategic doctrine follows the Wolfowitz Doctrine: "Our first objective is to prevent the re-emergence of a new rival, either on the territory of the former Soviet Union or elsewhere, which poses a threat on the order of that posed formerly by the Soviet Union. This is a dominant consideration underlying the new regional defense strategy and requires that we endeavor to prevent any hostile power from dominating a region whose resources would, under consolidated control, be sufficient to generate global power."
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The Wolfowitz Doctrine came out on Feb. 18, 1992, less than two months after the collapse of the USSR on Dec. 25, 1991. At the time, the US had already fallen into the so-called Thucydides Trap. The US will not allow any country to achieve parity or surpass the US economically, technologically or militarily. It will launch a preemptive war to prevent any country from attaining parity or surpassing the US while the US is still relatively strong compared to any rising rival, thus ensuring victory.
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Deng Xiaoping, China's leader at the time, figured that the Wolfowitz Doctrine was primarily targeted at China, whose GDP was growing at an average of 14.2 percent annually in 1992. Militarily, China was no match against the US at the time. China's military capacities were still under development, such as what military analysts call the "assassin's mace." Deng, in response to the Wolfowitz Doctrine, came out with his 24-character strategy: "Observe calmly; secure our position; cope with affairs calmly; hide our capacities and bide our time; be good at maintaining a low profile; and never claim leadership."
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Deng's strategy saved China from certain destruction on several occasions. Notice that Deng repeated the word "calmly" twice in his 24-character formula. If the Chinese had failed to follow Deng's formula in 1999 (two years after Deng had passed away) when the US bombed the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade and retaliated militarily, the US would have been given the chance to destroy China or nuke China back to the Stone Age. At that time, China was still in the process of developing its own nuclear arsenal and defense against nuclear attack. China was also in the process of developing its anti-ship ballistic missiles; anti-satellite weapons; anti-air bases weapons; and anti-submarine systems. Included in these offensive systems are defensive systems, such as more than 5,000 kilometers of strategic tunnels, more than 40 air bases with underground hangars, an underground submarine base, an overlapping and redundant air defense system covering the entire east coast of China, a defense network for anti-submarine covering China's east coast, and an extensive system of subways covering all major cities that can double as civil defense in the event of a nuclear attack.
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All these offensive and defensive systems that will allow China to survive a military confrontation with the US and its allies - and win - is what was known in military circles as the "assassin's mace." The development of these capacities is what Deng referred to in his 24-character formula, "hide our capacities."
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When Xi Jinping took over the mantle of leadership in 2013, the "assassin's mace" was mostly in place and Xi improved the system even further. Two major concerns faced Xi at the time. The first was the "Talisman Saber," a biennial naval exercise conducted by the US and Australian navies that rehearsed the naval blockade of the Malacca Strait. The naval exercise started way back in 2005 and continues to this day. Some $5 trillion worth of goods and energy supplies pass through the strait annually, and some 70 percent belongs to China. Hampering "freedom of navigation" in the Malacca Strait would practically force China's economy to grind to a halt. Military strategists call this China's "Malacca Dilemma."
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The second major concern of Xi was the Manila Trench. The trench is the only deep portion in the whole of the South China Sea where US nuclear submarines can surreptitiously approach China's east coast to launch a "first nuclear strike." Four Ohio-class nuclear submarines, each armed with 154 Tomahawk missiles with a range of 2,500 kilometers, with each missile packing 200 kilotons (i.e., more than 10 times more powerful than the bomb used in Hiroshima) can spell the end of the Chinese nation and civilization within hours, if not minutes. Because of the proximity of the attack, China will have no time to react and retaliate.
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The Manila Trench passes right beside Scarborough Shoal, the main bone of contention between the Philippines and China in 2012 that prompted the Philippines to bring suit against China at the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in the Hague. The Philippines won the case, but China has refused to honor the ruling, saying that the court had no jurisdiction on issues of sovereignty.
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Two US aircraft carrier strike groups were sent to enforce the PCA court ruling, but China refused, telling the US commander that China was prepared to go to war if the US enforced the ruling by force. For the first time in US naval history, the US was forced to withdraw without accomplishing its mission of enforcing the PCA ruling.
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China started building seven artificial islands in the South China Sea in 2013, when Xi assumed leadership in China. The construction was basically finished by 2016. Three of these artificial islands have 3 km-long runways. With the construction of the islands, Xi hit two birds with one stone: China's Malacca Dilemma and Manila Trench being used as an avenue of approach for a US first nuclear strike against China. China has now stationed a permanent presence guarding Scarborough Shoal, the gateway of nuclear subs to the Manila Trench. It can also trump any attempt by the US and its allies to blockade the Malacca Strait. The seven artificial islands can accommodate enough anti-ship ballistic missiles, stealth combat aircraft, and air defense systems that can neutralize any US attempt to hamper "freedom of navigation" in the Malacca Strait and beyond.
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There is a saying that geography is immutable. But China has shown it to be untrue. The US will now have to think twice before launching a naval blockade against China in the Malacca Strait or attempt to use the Manila Trench for its nuclear submarines to approach China's east coast for a first nuclear strike. Of course, the US can launch a first nuclear strike against China anywhere, even from the US mainland. But doing so can also trigger a massive counterattack from China's nuclear forces and probably from Russia as well. The element of surprise is lost and the whole of American society will also be put at risk.
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The US and Australia's plan to block China's "freedom of navigation" in the Malacca Strait as revealed by the biennial Talisman Saber naval exercises has been countered by China's artificial islands in the South China Sea because once the US and Australia implement their plan, China can just fly its weapons systems to the islands, giving them geographical proximity to counter any blockade of the Malacca Strait.
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In the last Talisman Saber naval exercise held in 2019, Japan, Canada, the UK and New Zealand joined, with India and South Korea as observers. It may not take long before Germany, France, the Netherlands and other members of the G7 and NATO take part in this year's naval exercises. So, the trend seems to be Quad + G7 + NATO (the so-called democracies) ganging up against China (a non-democracy) and possibly also against Russia and Iran. What then? What if the Quad + G7 + NATO combine against China in a military confrontation? Can a united Quad, G7 and NATO led by the US Navy defeat China militarily?
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Since the Talisman Saber is focused on the South China Sea and its environs, let us take it as the major theater where armed conflict would start. China's strategy overall is active defense, meaning that China will never be the first to attack, but if it is attacked, it will surely counterattack. So, NATO, G7 and Quad will be forced to be the aggressors or invaders while China will be the defender.
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However, the Western powers can turn this dilemma around and make China look the aggressor. They can woo Taiwan to declare independence, assuring the latter of the Western alliance's full backing. If Taiwan falls for the trap and declares independence, China will invade Taiwan militarily, giving the US enough reason for coming to Taiwan's aid and attacking China.
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Another alternative scenario that can trigger war in the South China Sea is the unilateral withdrawal of the US from the INF (Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces) Treaty with Russia. The US can now force or "persuade" the next Philippine president that will succeed Duterte to allow US forces to deploy intermediate range ballistic missiles (IRBMs, with a range of 500-5,500 km) in US EDCA bases in the Philippines. If the Philippines agrees to host US nuclear armed missiles that can reach Beijing and Shanghai in less than 15 minutes, such a move will be considered by Beijing as a "first strike" against China on the strategic level, necessitating a counterstrike. China will consider such a move as no different from the "Cuban missile crisis" in the early 1960s. And China surely will not wait for those nuclear-tipped missiles to rain on Beijing or Shanghai before they make their move. China will seize the operational or tactical initiative and take out those US missiles in Philippine territory before they even become operational. This can start a conflagration in the whole of the SCS and beyond.
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Being long-term planners, China would have prepared for these various contingencies beforehand. Between China and Russia, both can jointly plan and coordinate action of their nuclear submarines, with China opening a new war front on the US west coast, while Russia opening a new warfront on the US east coast. Iran's role will be to close the Hormuz Strait where Japan depends for 90 percent of its energy needs, while NATO will lose 60 percent of its oil supply.
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To be continued next week, July 8, 2021
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[1] ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Brigadier General Victor Navarro Corpus (born October 4, 1944) is a retired Filipino military officer and public official best known for his 1970 defection from the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) to the New People's Army of the Communist Party of the Philippines during Ferdinand Marcos administration, for his defection from the NPA in 1976, his return to the AFP after the 1986 People Power Revolution, and his later role as chief of the Intelligence Service of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (ISAFP).
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[2] The MANILA TIMES | July 1, 2021
Link: [link to www.manilatimes.net (secure)] was a fairy6GCN3bFT1CNbehfqFVBYzSgB7fTBcfLAVLdq4iM4AVYN6F3yRU8zQ