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Can Comet Atlas (C-2019) Dust Tail directly intersect Earth for a day or two while it hits ecliptic?

 
Anonymous Coward
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03/23/2020 09:51 PM
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Can Comet Atlas (C-2019) Dust Tail directly intersect Earth for a day or two while it hits ecliptic?
[link to phys.org (secure)]

This is a view from the center of the Earth of Atlas on June 1, 2020.

In 3d, Atlas would be closer to us than the Sun on that day, 0.9 AU from us.

The Ion tail would be shooting from Atlas drawing a direct line from the Sun to Atlas and on from there (from Atlas on the Ion tail goes straight). That does not seem to be the problem.

The DUST tail however curves from Atlas toward the Earth in on this day, a couple days before, and after. See link below:

[link to en.wikipedia.org (secure)]

The DUST tail has a curve to it that trails from a path starting in the same as the ION but then going about 30 degrees and more deviated from that.

See this diagram: [link to en.wikipedia.org (secure)]

Tails have been know to extend 3 AU from comets putting the tail in the range of Earth in such a case. The dust tail from Atlas would get to Earth in the first link if you imagine the tail curving from Atlas to you the viewer. That is roughly the track while it is crossing the ecliptic (yellow line in the first link).

[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov (secure)] fastforward to June 1 on this.

This is just a query asking if this makes sense - that the Atlas tail may engage Earth here.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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03/23/2020 09:55 PM
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Re: Can Comet Atlas (C-2019) Dust Tail directly intersect Earth for a day or two while it hits ecliptic?
Note event 201 has led to Covid-19

This Comet is called C/ 2 0 1 9
Y4
Atlas

just a curiosity
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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03/23/2020 09:56 PM
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Re: Can Comet Atlas (C-2019) Dust Tail directly intersect Earth for a day or two while it hits ecliptic?
Note event 201 has led to Covid-19

This Comet is called C/ 2 0 1 9
Y4
Atlas

just a curiosity
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76660238


Also C/19
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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03/23/2020 09:59 PM
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Re: Can Comet Atlas (C-2019) Dust Tail directly intersect Earth for a day or two while it hits ecliptic?
[link to en.wikipedia.org (secure)]

Even it the dust tail is half shorter than the ion tail that leaves 1.5 AU, well within range.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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03/23/2020 10:03 PM
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Re: Can Comet Atlas (C-2019) Dust Tail directly intersect Earth for a day or two while it hits ecliptic?
[link to en.wikipedia.org (secure)]

This diagram illustrates the antitail (dust tail) path.

You can see how this might wrap around to Earth as C-19 passes the plane of the ecliptic.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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03/23/2020 10:10 PM
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Re: Can Comet Atlas (C-2019) Dust Tail directly intersect Earth for a day or two while it hits ecliptic?
[link to en.wikipedia.org (secure)]

This diagram illustrates the antitail (dust tail) path.

You can see how this might wrap around to Earth as C-19 passes the plane of the ecliptic.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76660238


late may to early june would be the time frame
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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03/23/2020 10:13 PM
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Re: Can Comet Atlas (C-2019) Dust Tail directly intersect Earth for a day or two while it hits ecliptic?
[link to en.wikipedia.org (secure)]

This diagram illustrates the antitail (dust tail) path.

You can see how this might wrap around to Earth as C-19 passes the plane of the ecliptic.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76660238


earth is not shown in the correct location in this sketch. it's just an example of an anti-tail shape.
Anonymous Coward
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03/23/2020 10:18 PM
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Re: Can Comet Atlas (C-2019) Dust Tail directly intersect Earth for a day or two while it hits ecliptic?
You should definitely worry if you are at earth's center on that time date.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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03/23/2020 10:20 PM
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Re: Can Comet Atlas (C-2019) Dust Tail directly intersect Earth for a day or two while it hits ecliptic?
You should definitely worry if you are at earth's center on that time date.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 6673286


you couldn't live there, that's impossible. :-)
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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03/23/2020 10:28 PM
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Re: Can Comet Atlas (C-2019) Dust Tail directly intersect Earth for a day or two while it hits ecliptic?
Is this making sense? Can anyone else see the geometry that I'm describing?
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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03/23/2020 10:31 PM
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Re: Can Comet Atlas (C-2019) Dust Tail directly intersect Earth for a day or two while it hits ecliptic?
I know we pass through dust tails of comets that have been around, but this would be a fresh tail right off the body.
Anonymous Coward
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03/24/2020 10:40 AM
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Re: Can Comet Atlas (C-2019) Dust Tail directly intersect Earth for a day or two while it hits ecliptic?
Since the plane of the comet's orbit determines its debris donut, imagine a donut hole that is the extent the comet's orbit gets close to sun and the donut mass is extending out from that on the same plane as the orbit of the comet.

This means earth will pass through slightly old Atlas debris in late July, not early June.
Nonentity

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03/24/2020 10:47 AM
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Re: Can Comet Atlas (C-2019) Dust Tail directly intersect Earth for a day or two while it hits ecliptic?
I know we pass through dust tails of comets that have been around, but this would be a fresh tail right off the body.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76660238


A third of stars fall to Earth. Water made bitter.

Who knows anymore
Anonymous Coward
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03/24/2020 10:47 AM
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Re: Can Comet Atlas (C-2019) Dust Tail directly intersect Earth for a day or two while it hits ecliptic?
Some are saying it will hit the moon. Or, you could be correct. Something g is off, and the name Atlas suggests it will either hold up the world or shrug.
Anonymous Coward
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03/24/2020 11:02 AM
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Re: Can Comet Atlas (C-2019) Dust Tail directly intersect Earth for a day or two while it hits ecliptic?
Since the plane of the comet's orbit determines its debris donut, imagine a donut hole that is the extent the comet's orbit gets close to sun and the donut mass is extending out from that on the same plane as the orbit of the comet.

This means earth will pass through slightly old Atlas debris in late July, not early June.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78353010


The donut of debris will extend 2-3 au probably with decreasing debris (more dispersed) the farther from the donut hole.
Anonymous Coward
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03/24/2020 11:15 AM
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Re: Can Comet Atlas (C-2019) Dust Tail directly intersect Earth for a day or two while it hits ecliptic?
Here's the problem. ATLAS has a very good chance of crumbling! It is twice the diameter of Jupiter. IF IT CRUMBLES to pieces we pass through a donut of MAJOR debris in July!
Anonymous Coward
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03/24/2020 11:20 AM
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Re: Can Comet Atlas (C-2019) Dust Tail directly intersect Earth for a day or two while it hits ecliptic?
Here's the problem. ATLAS has a very good chance of crumbling! It is twice the diameter of Jupiter. IF IT CRUMBLES to pieces we pass through a donut of MAJOR debris in July!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78353010


Read the final paragraph of the wikipedia entry. It is ominous. It says the size is tremendous and unexpected and that it has a large chance of being nearly exploding therefore i think the debris is now worrysome . We PASS through the tail of debris in July.
Anonymous Coward
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03/24/2020 11:38 AM
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Re: Can Comet Atlas (C-2019) Dust Tail directly intersect Earth for a day or two while it hits ecliptic?
We need to know its mass. Lovejoy was est at 7.37e14 kg but lovejoy is much smaller than atlas. Lovejoy was 1/100000000 the mass of the moon. Lets estimate Atlas at 1000x the mass of Lovejoy. Then it's 1/100000 the mass of the moon at that rate which if exploding IS significant.
Anonymous Coward
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03/24/2020 12:47 PM
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Re: Can Comet Atlas (C-2019) Dust Tail directly intersect Earth for a day or two while it hits ecliptic?
This was discovered just a couple days before they announced the covid problem. In late december.
Anonymous Coward
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03/24/2020 01:04 PM
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Re: Can Comet Atlas (C-2019) Dust Tail directly intersect Earth for a day or two while it hits ecliptic?
This was discovered just a couple days before they announced the covid problem. In late december.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78353010


bump
Anonymous Coward
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03/24/2020 02:31 PM
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Re: Can Comet Atlas (C-2019) Dust Tail directly intersect Earth for a day or two while it hits ecliptic?
I am wondering now that if AI did the number crunching on this when discovered and shortly thereafter spit out a code red for likelihood of a chunk hitting earth after exploding.
Anonymous Coward
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03/24/2020 02:33 PM
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Re: Can Comet Atlas (C-2019) Dust Tail directly intersect Earth for a day or two while it hits ecliptic?
I am wondering now that if AI did the number crunching on this when discovered and shortly thereafter spit out a code red for likelihood of a chunk hitting earth after exploding.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78353010


At which point they initiated some sort of black swan event code for earth. Its also possible tptb knew a few days before the official discovery announcement.
Anonymous Coward
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03/24/2020 02:37 PM
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Re: Can Comet Atlas (C-2019) Dust Tail directly intersect Earth for a day or two while it hits ecliptic?
I am wondering now that if AI did the number crunching on this when discovered and shortly thereafter spit out a code red for likelihood of a chunk hitting earth after exploding.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78353010


At which point they initiated some sort of black swan event code for earth. Its also possible tptb knew a few days before the official discovery announcement.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78353010


When jcos said this was a live test. He may have meant they will need in in a couple of months. ???
Anonymous
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03/24/2020 02:40 PM
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Re: Can Comet Atlas (C-2019) Dust Tail directly intersect Earth for a day or two while it hits ecliptic?
I thought it was Comet Ass Slap (C-2020)
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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03/24/2020 05:08 PM
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Re: Can Comet Atlas (C-2019) Dust Tail directly intersect Earth for a day or two while it hits ecliptic?
We need to know its mass. Lovejoy was est at 7.37e14 kg but lovejoy is much smaller than atlas. Lovejoy was 1/100000000 the mass of the moon. Lets estimate Atlas at 1000x the mass of Lovejoy. Then it's 1/100000 the mass of the moon at that rate which if exploding IS significant.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78353010


Can anyone get a mass for Atlas?
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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03/24/2020 05:13 PM
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Re: Can Comet Atlas (C-2019) Dust Tail directly intersect Earth for a day or two while it hits ecliptic?
I imagine the powers that be MUST have to monitor this closely because there IS potential here for an exploding comet at which point you have millions of pieces suddenly to track and you can't track them all so soon.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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03/24/2020 05:15 PM
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Re: Can Comet Atlas (C-2019) Dust Tail directly intersect Earth for a day or two while it hits ecliptic?
Carl Sagan once postulated:

"In 1985 astronomer Carl Sagan identified the comet of 1486 BC as Comet 12P/Pons-Brooks, suggesting that a fragment of it had broken off and impacted with the Earth, the resultant explosion throwing debris high into the atmosphere and impeding the sun's rays for many years, causing global temperatures to fall."
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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03/24/2020 05:17 PM
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Re: Can Comet Atlas (C-2019) Dust Tail directly intersect Earth for a day or two while it hits ecliptic?
Carl Sagan once postulated:

"In 1985 astronomer Carl Sagan identified the comet of 1486 BC as Comet 12P/Pons-Brooks, suggesting that a fragment of it had broken off and impacted with the Earth, the resultant explosion throwing debris high into the atmosphere and impeding the sun's rays for many years, causing global temperatures to fall."
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76660238


[link to www.ancient-origins.net (secure)]
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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03/24/2020 05:20 PM
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Re: Can Comet Atlas (C-2019) Dust Tail directly intersect Earth for a day or two while it hits ecliptic?
Since the plane of the comet's orbit determines its debris donut, imagine a donut hole that is the extent the comet's orbit gets close to sun and the donut mass is extending out from that on the same plane as the orbit of the comet.

This means earth will pass through slightly old Atlas debris in late July, not early June.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78353010


This is more accurate than the original post.

Having looked closer at the plane of Atlas, this is the more likely situation.
Anonymous Coward
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03/24/2020 05:21 PM
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Re: Can Comet Atlas (C-2019) Dust Tail directly intersect Earth for a day or two while it hits ecliptic?
I'd be thrilled if this is what caused the real global reset, after the planned one was underway . . . . .
Anonymous Coward
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03/26/2020 05:58 AM
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Re: Can Comet Atlas (C-2019) Dust Tail directly intersect Earth for a day or two while it hits ecliptic?
Any news?

bump





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