Great post, Op.
In my opinion there are about the same chances he is alive or dead.
The fake death in this case not science fiction , and the guy vanished more than a time in the past.
On the other side if he is really dead, I suppose that is pretty normal to announce days if not weeks after a such event... in that nation.
Imagine the ceremonies, the tricks on the succession, the rebalance of powers etc.
This stuff requires time and the green light from china, and happened in the past two times with the passing of the other two Kims.
Even if obese, smoker... It's very unusual for a dictator to die aging 40 years for... Ordinary issues like surgery complications.
Someone before said about the possibility that he is defecting, but from what? There was really a deal with usa or only some great pics with Trump on the border of the dmz? Was he really able to sign a deal without china consense? I have a strong doubt about this.
A question for the glpers, I'm sure that someone can answer.. Do you remember the jolly roger flag exposed by a us navy submarine after a mysterious mission in that waters before the diolomatic relaxation beetwen the two countries?
Maybe can fit in the actual picture...