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NEW ECONOMIST MODEL FORECAST: Chance of winning the electoral college: Biden 90% Trump 10%

 
Anonymous Coward
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07/10/2020 06:50 PM
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NEW ECONOMIST MODEL FORECAST: Chance of winning the electoral college: Biden 90% Trump 10%
Chance of winning the electoral college:
Biden 90%
Trump 10%

Chance of winning the most votes:
Biden 99%
Trump 1%

Estimated electoral college votes:
Biden 346
Trump 192


Estimated electoral college votes
Our model is updated every day and combines state and national polls with economic indicators to predict a range of outcomes. The midpoint is the estimate of the electoral-college vote for each party on election day.

Electoral-college simulations
Our model works by simulating 20,000 different paths for the election, each time varying candidates’ vote shares to account for polling error, changes in turnout or the political environment and the effects of campaigning.

Chance of winning each state
Our model combines the national prediction with polls and political-economic factors at the state level. We take into account that states that are similar are likely to move with each other; if Donald Trump wins Minnesota, he will probably win Wisconsin too.

[link to projects.economist.com (secure)]
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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07/10/2020 06:52 PM
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Re: NEW ECONOMIST MODEL FORECAST: Chance of winning the electoral college: Biden 90% Trump 10%
Last weeke's Economist model run:

Chance of winning the electoral college:
Biden 88%
Trump 11%

Chance of winning the most votes:
Biden 98%
Trump 2%

Thread: NEW ECONOMIST MODEL FORECAST: Estimated electoral college votes - Biden 343 Trump: 195
Anonymous Coward
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07/10/2020 06:53 PM
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Re: NEW ECONOMIST MODEL FORECAST: Chance of winning the electoral college: Biden 90% Trump 10%
Must use the same modeling techniques as the covid dopes in Britain.
Trumps Furry 2nd Term

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07/10/2020 06:54 PM

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Re: NEW ECONOMIST MODEL FORECAST: Chance of winning the electoral college: Biden 90% Trump 10%
Will he move the Oval Office to the basement?
“The future ain’t what it used to be.” Yogi Berra
Anonymous Coward
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07/10/2020 06:55 PM
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Re: NEW ECONOMIST MODEL FORECAST: Chance of winning the electoral college: Biden 90% Trump 10%
this is the same model that says Biden is winning in Texas


chuckle If you believe that I have some ocean front land in Nebraska to sell you
Anonymous Coward
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07/10/2020 06:57 PM
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Re: NEW ECONOMIST MODEL FORECAST: Chance of winning the electoral college: Biden 90% Trump 10%
Biden Rally in Pennsylvania on Wednesday night

[link to twitter.com (secure)]
dschis1000

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07/10/2020 07:01 PM

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Re: NEW ECONOMIST MODEL FORECAST: Chance of winning the electoral college: Biden 90% Trump 10%
I don't care. I will vote for Trump.

We've heard that before and from the Economist no less.

The Primary Model IS the most accurate.

from [link to primarymodel.com]

The Primary Model gives President Trump a 91% chance of winning a possible match-up with Democrat Joe Biden in November, based on primary performance in New Hampshire and South Carolina, plus the first-term electoral benefit. Trump would get 362 electoral votes, Biden 176.

In a possible match-up with Bernie Sanders in November, Trump’s chance of winning would rise to 95%. In that scenario, Trump would get 390 electoral votes, Sanders 148.
Anonymous Coward
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07/10/2020 07:05 PM
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Re: NEW ECONOMIST MODEL FORECAST: Chance of winning the electoral college: Biden 90% Trump 10%
K

Didn’t Hillary win last time, who is this Trump guy?
Anonymous Coward
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07/10/2020 07:11 PM
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Re: NEW ECONOMIST MODEL FORECAST: Chance of winning the electoral college: Biden 90% Trump 10%
Total bullsh*t.
Anonymous Coward
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07/10/2020 07:15 PM
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Re: NEW ECONOMIST MODEL FORECAST: Chance of winning the electoral college: Biden 90% Trump 10%
Total bullsh*t.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79133349


Based on what?

Let's see your model.
MISTER-BEE

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07/10/2020 07:16 PM
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Re: NEW ECONOMIST MODEL FORECAST: Chance of winning the electoral college: Biden 90% Trump 10%
5 STARS and PIN IT baby!

THE REPUBLIC is OVA

5a

Pour 1 out 4 MFing Donald President Trump, the greatest President in United States history who ain't getting re-elected

EXPERTS and MODELS RULE

dancingmoving
Anonymous Coward
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07/10/2020 07:19 PM
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Re: NEW ECONOMIST MODEL FORECAST: Chance of winning the electoral college: Biden 90% Trump 10%
I don't care. I will vote for Trump.

We've heard that before and from the Economist no less.

The Primary Model IS the most accurate.

from [link to primarymodel.com]

The Primary Model gives President Trump a 91% chance of winning a possible match-up with Democrat Joe Biden in November, based on primary performance in New Hampshire and South Carolina, plus the first-term electoral benefit. Trump would get 362 electoral votes, Biden 176.

In a possible match-up with Bernie Sanders in November, Trump’s chance of winning would rise to 95%. In that scenario, Trump would get 390 electoral votes, Sanders 148.
 Quoting: dschis1000


"The Primary Model gives President Trump a 91% chance of winning a possible match-up with Democrat Joe Biden in November, based on primary performance in New Hampshire and South Carolina, plus the first-term electoral benefit."

So their model is based on primary performance in NH and SC back in February plus the first term benefit.

Ummm...I am no statistician but sounds like a pretty weak model to me.
Anonymous Coward
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07/10/2020 07:32 PM
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Re: NEW ECONOMIST MODEL FORECAST: Chance of winning the electoral college: Biden 90% Trump 10%
The Rothschild owed ECONOMIST.

The point of these fake poles, and "forecast" are because some people will only vote for who they perceive are going to win. Tactical voting, so they feel like winners when their guy wins. It also seems to drive them crazy when they lose i.e. 2016.
Anonymous Coward
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07/10/2020 07:34 PM
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Re: NEW ECONOMIST MODEL FORECAST: Chance of winning the electoral college: Biden 90% Trump 10%
I don't care. I will vote for Trump.

We've heard that before and from the Economist no less.

The Primary Model IS the most accurate.

from [link to primarymodel.com]

The Primary Model gives President Trump a 91% chance of winning a possible match-up with Democrat Joe Biden in November, based on primary performance in New Hampshire and South Carolina, plus the first-term electoral benefit. Trump would get 362 electoral votes, Biden 176.

In a possible match-up with Bernie Sanders in November, Trump’s chance of winning would rise to 95%. In that scenario, Trump would get 390 electoral votes, Sanders 148.
 Quoting: dschis1000


"The Primary Model gives President Trump a 91% chance of winning a possible match-up with Democrat Joe Biden in November, based on primary performance in New Hampshire and South Carolina, plus the first-term electoral benefit."

So their model is based on primary performance in NH and SC back in February plus the first term benefit.

Ummm...I am no statistician but sounds like a pretty weak model to me.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79133330


LOL...they base the whole thing on two state primaries back in February plus the fact that Trump is an incumbent?

You gotta be kidding me.
Anonymous Coward
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07/10/2020 07:35 PM
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Re: NEW ECONOMIST MODEL FORECAST: Chance of winning the electoral college: Biden 90% Trump 10%
The Rothschild owed ECONOMIST.

The point of these fake poles, and "forecast" are because some people will only vote for who they perceive are going to win. Tactical voting, so they feel like winners when their guy wins. It also seems to drive them crazy when they lose i.e. 2016.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77866962


Pretty sure Soros paid for it, too.

epiclol
Anonymous Coward
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07/10/2020 07:35 PM
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Re: NEW ECONOMIST MODEL FORECAST: Chance of winning the electoral college: Biden 90% Trump 10%
The Rothschild owed ECONOMIST.

The point of these fake poles, and "forecast" are because some people will only vote for who they perceive are going to win. Tactical voting, so they feel like winners when their guy wins. It also seems to drive them crazy when they lose i.e. 2016.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77866962


oops polls*
Anonymous Coward
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07/12/2020 07:58 PM
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Re: NEW ECONOMIST MODEL FORECAST: Chance of winning the electoral college: Biden 90% Trump 10%
The Rothschild owed ECONOMIST.

The point of these fake poles, and "forecast" are because some people will only vote for who they perceive are going to win. Tactical voting, so they feel like winners when their guy wins. It also seems to drive them crazy when they lose i.e. 2016.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77866962


oops polls*
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77866962


This is not a poll. This is a multivariate model simulating 20,000 different paths for the election, each time varying candidates’ vote shares to account for polling error, changes in turnout or the political environment and the effects of campaigning.
Dulcius Ex Asperis

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10/28/2020 07:02 AM

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Re: NEW ECONOMIST MODEL FORECAST: Chance of winning the electoral college: Biden 90% Trump 10%
The Economist is in bed with ChiComs.

----------

‘Economist’ Failed to Disclose Lucrative Beijing Ties
YUICHIRO KAKUTANI | OCT 26, 2020

(washingtonfreebeacon.com) - The Economist provided sympathetic coverage of a Chinese tech giant widely considered a national security risk without disclosing the publication's lucrative business relationship with the firm that spanned nearly a decade.

Huawei Technologies commissioned the Economist‘s business consulting division to advance its policy agendas and deflect cybersecurity concerns raised by Western governments. The influential British magazine produced reports on a wide range of subjects—including a report on broadband access in the United Kingdom that Huawei credits to have influenced British policy. The publication has also run numerous Huawei advertisements, and its editors have cohosted several global forums with the company, helping the tech firm boost its public image as it faced growing scrutiny from the developed world for its close ties with the Chinese government.

The Economist defended Huawei in a front-page cover story in 2012—the year the publication's consulting division started working with the company—that accused Western countries of using cybersecurity concerns as a pretense to oppose legitimate competition from Huawei. The publication's coverage of the tech company has become less overtly pro-Huawei in recent years, but the Economist‘s coverage of the company is seen as friendly enough that Huawei's PR division has cited several of the magazine's articles to deflect criticism.

"The rise of a Chinese world-beater is stoking fears of cyber-espionage. Techno-nationalism is not the answer," reads the 2012 piece's headline.

Huawei nurtured a lucrative relationship with the Economist just as it faced growing concerns from Western countries that broadband networks built by the tech firm serve as a conduit for Chinese espionage. Such cybersecurity concerns have pushed the United States, Japan, Australia, the United Kingdom, and other U.S. allies to severely curtail or outright ban the company's operations in their countries.

Other Economist Intelligence Unit reports explicitly supported Huawei's interests. In response to growing national security concerns about the firm in the United States and elsewhere, Huawei commissioned two reports—one public, one private—analyzing how Huawei can respond to growing government scrutiny and avoid crackdowns. The public report, published in 2014, advised Huawei to become an "industry leader in cyber-security."

"[Huawei] should also distance itself from China's image as a rather weak cyber-security environment," the report reads. "This would help to counter the negative perception of Huawei as a company willing to help governments monitor their populations."

That goal, according to the report, could be achieved by hosting public forums to "develop and co-ordinate industry standards on cyber-security." Huawei appears to have followed the recommendations, sponsoring several international forums to discuss IT-related issues.

The Economist played a major role in legitimizing these forums—its editors frequently participate in Huawei-hosted forums, including the magazine's deputy editor and business editor. The most recent forum took place on July 17. The Economist also published an online advertisement feature to promote Huawei's premier forum on the digital economy in 2018. In turn, Huawei executives have also participated in prestigious international forums sponsored by the Economist to tout the company's virtues.

In addition to the forums, Huawei also ran several ads in the Economist print edition and paid the magazine to produce sponsored content on its website. The most recent sponsored content—a foreboding video about the impact of the coronavirus on globalization—was published in September
....

READ MORE: [link to freebeacon.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Dulcius Ex Asperis
BRIEF

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10/28/2020 07:04 AM

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Re: NEW ECONOMIST MODEL FORECAST: Chance of winning the electoral college: Biden 90% Trump 10%

I never forgive and I never forget

I am a licensed firearm holder. I will, under protection of law, use lethal force if attacked.

Briefcut4892
Anonymous Coward
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10/28/2020 07:40 AM
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Re: NEW ECONOMIST MODEL FORECAST: Chance of winning the electoral college: Biden 90% Trump 10%
The Rothschild owed ECONOMIST.

The point of these fake poles, and "forecast" are because some people will only vote for who they perceive are going to win. Tactical voting, so they feel like winners when their guy wins. It also seems to drive them crazy when they lose i.e. 2016.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77866962


oops polls*
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77866962


This is not a poll. This is a multivariate model simulating 20,000 different paths for the election, each time varying candidates’ vote shares to account for polling error, changes in turnout or the political environment and the effects of campaigning.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77949928


In other words, it's not just plain old shit, it's advanced shit.
Katipo2017

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10/28/2020 07:48 AM
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Re: NEW ECONOMIST MODEL FORECAST: Chance of winning the electoral college: Biden 90% Trump 10%
bsflag

The american news media love "thrashing" their "polls"
Anonymous Coward
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10/29/2020 07:59 PM
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Re: NEW ECONOMIST MODEL FORECAST: Chance of winning the electoral college: Biden 90% Trump 10%
Today's update:

Anonymous Coward
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10/29/2020 08:05 PM
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Re: NEW ECONOMIST MODEL FORECAST: Chance of winning the electoral college: Biden 90% Trump 10%
This forecaster correctly predicted the democrat takeover in 2016. She uses negative partisanship.
Very interesting interview.
She pegs Biden to win at 88%.
And she hates trump. Lol my kind of gal

[link to tangle.substack.com (secure)]
Anonymous Coward
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10/30/2020 05:40 PM
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Re: NEW ECONOMIST MODEL FORECAST: Chance of winning the electoral college: Biden 90% Trump 10%
Updated today:






GLP