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COVID-19 News, Info, Discussion /// Tracking the Spread of the Virus and its Effects /// October Lockdown for UK (pg. 774)

 
Anonymous Coward
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09/14/2021 10:06 AM
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Re: COVID-19 News, Info, Discussion /// Tracking the Spread of the Virus and its Effects /// October Lockdown for UK (pg. 774)
Many lessons to be learned from this mild pandemic of 0.7 -1% chance of death and 2-3% chance of hospitalization. I,Aline if this pandemic was 10% hospitalized and 5% death, would be total disaster!

Our experts warned us for years of a pandemic yet we were not even close to being prepared!

Still US certified N95s are hard to find, cloth masks are a joke…much less full protection PPE and the necessary training is nearly absent for some rural medical and first responders.

I hope have lessons learned and fix preparedness, god help us if we have a biological attack…I really thought we were better and ready for something like this, boy was I ignorant!
S-man

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09/14/2021 10:08 AM
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Re: COVID-19 News, Info, Discussion /// Tracking the Spread of the Virus and its Effects /// October Lockdown for UK (pg. 774)
OK - Part 1: Links to plots.
Original plot from p18 of [link to assets.publishing.service.gov.uk (secure)]

a) Verification of PHE figures/plot for "Case Rates per 100k" for Double-vaccinated vs. Unvaccinated.
[link to imgur.com (secure)]

b) A NEW plot (PHE should have made it!) "Case rates per 100k" for Anyvax (1-or-more doses) vs. Unvaccinated
[link to imgur.com (secure)]

--tldr: case rates per 100k higher in MOST age groups for Anyvax vs Unvaccinated.

Diffster: 'break-even' numbers to come shortly.. PS I would like to use the ONS excess deaths to get a grip on what vax mortality MIGHT look like, at worst.

Last Edited by S-man on 09/14/2021 10:09 AM
CleverCreator

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09/14/2021 10:16 AM

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Re: COVID-19 News, Info, Discussion /// Tracking the Spread of the Virus and its Effects /// October Lockdown for UK (pg. 774)
Many lessons to be learned from this mild pandemic of 0.7 -1% chance of death and 2-3% chance of hospitalization. I,Aline if this pandemic was 10% hospitalized and 5% death, would be total disaster!

Our experts warned us for years of a pandemic yet we were not even close to being prepared!

Still US certified N95s are hard to find, cloth masks are a joke…much less full protection PPE and the necessary training is nearly absent for some rural medical and first responders.

I hope have lessons learned and fix preparedness, god help us if we have a biological attack…I really thought we were better and ready for something like this, boy was I ignorant!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 71758435


Mild. There is a picture perfect hopium statement.

Not only are there missing people, but the supply chains have been slowly crumbling for a year.5.

Geeze. The general public is gonna lose its mind.
Doom Level: Cluster Cluster Fuuuuuuuck

Just do your best. And be a decent soul. Don’t forget the comfort food.

Eek. Brace for the next two waves.

Proud Member of the Histrionic Doomsters
S-man

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09/14/2021 12:51 PM
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Re: COVID-19 News, Info, Discussion /// Tracking the Spread of the Virus and its Effects /// October Lockdown for UK (pg. 774)
Ok, Part 2:- these are NOT official numbers - I have calculated them to the best of my ability using PHE figures from Part 1, and an assumed Population Pyramid from the ONS.
I also hate using 'cases', because I think they don't reflect reality.
If I find a bug, I will update it.. but I have checked it, at least a bit!! ;)

I asked the following:
For each age-group, how many extra deaths from the vaccine... would need to be added to the vaccinated COVID deaths.... to give a 'deaths-per-case'.... equal to the 'deaths-per-case' for unvaccinated people?

Once I got that absolute number of EXTRA vaccine deaths, I divided "EXTRA vaccine deaths" by the number of COVID cases to get a 'Break Even' figure which would in theory equalise the 'Anyvax' and 'Unvax' death rates.
(PHEW!)

By age, % mortality from vaccine would cause a 'Break Even' in deaths-per-case
Under18: 0.002% (1-in-50,000)
18-29yo: 0.02% (1-in-5,000)
30-39yo: 0.07% (1-in-1,400)
40-49yo: 0.3% (1-in-333)
50-59yo: 1.2% (1-in-83)
60-69yo: 3.8%
70-79yo: 12.1%
Over80 : 19.2%

NOTE: This analysis can really only examine the 'acute' phase of 28 days post diagnosis or vaccination.
We have NO way to assess the long-term risks of the vaccine or the virus.
The deaths are largely occurring without Ivermectin or other substantial treatment.

Now, I think I need a cup of tea, and a think about ONS excess death figures (vaccine mortality lies in there, I think)..

Last Edited by S-man on 09/14/2021 12:54 PM
CleverCreator

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Re: COVID-19 News, Info, Discussion /// Tracking the Spread of the Virus and its Effects /// October Lockdown for UK (pg. 774)
The problem is the infection does something completely unlike the flu.

Dumbasses.


Doom Level: Cluster Cluster Fuuuuuuuck

Just do your best. And be a decent soul. Don’t forget the comfort food.

Eek. Brace for the next two waves.

Proud Member of the Histrionic Doomsters
CleverCreator

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Re: COVID-19 News, Info, Discussion /// Tracking the Spread of the Virus and its Effects /// October Lockdown for UK (pg. 774)

Doom Level: Cluster Cluster Fuuuuuuuck

Just do your best. And be a decent soul. Don’t forget the comfort food.

Eek. Brace for the next two waves.

Proud Member of the Histrionic Doomsters
Gallor

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09/14/2021 02:18 PM
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Re: COVID-19 News, Info, Discussion /// Tracking the Spread of the Virus and its Effects /// October Lockdown for UK (pg. 774)
The Wife has just had a meeting, looks like Pfizer for boosters, even if you've had AZ or Moderna.

Also, if no Pfizer is available, then you'll get a half dose of Moderna.
CleverCreator

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09/14/2021 02:23 PM

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Re: COVID-19 News, Info, Discussion /// Tracking the Spread of the Virus and its Effects /// October Lockdown for UK (pg. 774)

Doom Level: Cluster Cluster Fuuuuuuuck

Just do your best. And be a decent soul. Don’t forget the comfort food.

Eek. Brace for the next two waves.

Proud Member of the Histrionic Doomsters
CleverCreator

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09/14/2021 02:24 PM

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Re: COVID-19 News, Info, Discussion /// Tracking the Spread of the Virus and its Effects /// October Lockdown for UK (pg. 774)
The Wife has just had a meeting, looks like Pfizer for boosters, even if you've had AZ or Moderna.

Also, if no Pfizer is available, then you'll get a half dose of Moderna.
 Quoting: Gallor



Doom Level: Cluster Cluster Fuuuuuuuck

Just do your best. And be a decent soul. Don’t forget the comfort food.

Eek. Brace for the next two waves.

Proud Member of the Histrionic Doomsters
Diffster

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09/14/2021 02:27 PM

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Re: COVID-19 News, Info, Discussion /// Tracking the Spread of the Virus and its Effects /// October Lockdown for UK (pg. 774)
Ok, Part 2:- these are NOT official numbers - I have calculated them to the best of my ability using PHE figures from Part 1, and an assumed Population Pyramid from the ONS.
I also hate using 'cases', because I think they don't reflect reality.
If I find a bug, I will update it.. but I have checked it, at least a bit!! ;)

I asked the following:
For each age-group, how many extra deaths from the vaccine... would need to be added to the vaccinated COVID deaths.... to give a 'deaths-per-case'.... equal to the 'deaths-per-case' for unvaccinated people?

Once I got that absolute number of EXTRA vaccine deaths, I divided "EXTRA vaccine deaths" by the number of COVID cases to get a 'Break Even' figure which would in theory equalise the 'Anyvax' and 'Unvax' death rates.
(PHEW!)

By age, % mortality from vaccine would cause a 'Break Even' in deaths-per-case
Under18: 0.002% (1-in-50,000)
18-29yo: 0.02% (1-in-5,000)
30-39yo: 0.07% (1-in-1,400)
40-49yo: 0.3% (1-in-333)
50-59yo: 1.2% (1-in-83)
60-69yo: 3.8%
70-79yo: 12.1%
Over80 : 19.2%

NOTE: This analysis can really only examine the 'acute' phase of 28 days post diagnosis or vaccination.
We have NO way to assess the long-term risks of the vaccine or the virus.
The deaths are largely occurring without Ivermectin or other substantial treatment.

Now, I think I need a cup of tea, and a think about ONS excess death figures (vaccine mortality lies in there, I think)..
 Quoting: S-man



These are fascinating figures. Is your conclusion that the vaccine is much more dangerous in the acute phase than the pharma company data suggests, for all age groups?
Covid19sars2.0

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Re: COVID-19 News, Info, Discussion /// Tracking the Spread of the Virus and its Effects /// October Lockdown for UK (pg. 774)
From SOS.




Covid19sars2.0
Covid19sars2.0

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Re: COVID-19 News, Info, Discussion /// Tracking the Spread of the Virus and its Effects /// October Lockdown for UK (pg. 774)
Its like magic


Covid19sars2.0
S-man

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09/14/2021 04:00 PM
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Re: COVID-19 News, Info, Discussion /// Tracking the Spread of the Virus and its Effects /// October Lockdown for UK (pg. 774)
These are fascinating figures. Is your conclusion that the vaccine is much more dangerous in the acute phase than the pharma company data suggests, for all age groups?
 Quoting: Diffster

Well, those numbers are the 'break-even' - so for example, if you are 85, the vaccine would need to kill 19% of people for it to be 'not worth it'.

Is that happening now? No. Could it happen? Well, maybe..
We don't know ADE, Prion risks, other as-yet unseen? Could it reach 19%??

BUT there's at least one big problem: cases. How many go unseen, and how many are never found??
Perhaps I'll repeat for Deaths/100k population in each category.

Public health Scotland did release a spreadsheet of 'Deaths within 28d of a vaccine' and there were a total of 5,522. Some of those would have died anyway, but Scotland is 1/10 of England...5,522 would represent about 0.1% vax fatality.

Last Edited by S-man on 09/14/2021 04:03 PM
Diffster

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Re: COVID-19 News, Info, Discussion /// Tracking the Spread of the Virus and its Effects /// October Lockdown for UK (pg. 774)
These are fascinating figures. Is your conclusion that the vaccine is much more dangerous in the acute phase than the pharma company data suggests, for all age groups?
 Quoting: Diffster

Well, those numbers are the 'break-even' - so for example, if you are 85, the vaccine would need to kill 19% of people for it to be 'not worth it'.

Is that happening now? No. Could it happen? Well, maybe..
We don't know ADE, Prion risks, other as-yet unseen? Could it reach 19%??

BUT there's at least one big problem: cases. How many go unseen, and how many are never found??
Perhaps I'll repeat for Deaths/100k population in each category.

Public health Scotland did release a spreadsheet of 'Deaths within 28d of a vaccine' and there were a total of 5,522. Some of those would have died anyway, but Scotland is 1/10 of England...5,522 would represent about 0.1% vax fatality.
 Quoting: S-man


That's a great explanation. I've looked at some figures. Around 80% of weekly deaths in England and Wales are of people aged over 65. 95% of this demographic are double vaxxed. Of the remaining deaths (people under 65) who make up 20% of total weekly fatalities, I think that around 85% are double vaxxed (the vast majority of deaths in this group are in the 50-64 age group).

I'm using weekly deaths but the same proportions will apply to yearly, monthly or daily deaths.

So it's safe to say that 90-95% of people dying in England and Wales right now are double vaxxed.

We know that excess deaths have averaged about 1000 a week (10% above the five-year average) for the last eight weeks and only half of these excess deaths have been attributed to covid. We also know that most of these non-covid excess deaths have been of people aged over 80.

If, during this autumn and winter, the recent non-covid excess death trend continues, and maybe accelerates, then I believe that the general public will increasingly blame the vaccines.

The vaccines are injuring people. That is a fact. The ADE aspect has yet to be proven but vaccine injuries alone could be responsible for a huge uptick in mortality in the months to come.
S-man

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09/14/2021 05:19 PM
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Re: COVID-19 News, Info, Discussion /// Tracking the Spread of the Virus and its Effects /// October Lockdown for UK (pg. 774)
That's a great explanation. I've looked at some figures. Around 80% of weekly deaths in England and Wales are of people aged over 65. 95% of this demographic are double vaxxed. Of the remaining deaths (people under 65) who make up 20% of total weekly fatalities, I think that around 85% are double vaxxed (the vast majority of deaths in this group are in the 50-64 age group).

I'm using weekly deaths but the same proportions will apply to yearly, monthly or daily deaths.

So it's safe to say that 90-95% of people dying in England and Wales right now are double vaxxed.

We know that excess deaths have averaged about 1000 a week (10% above the five-year average) for the last eight weeks and only half of these excess deaths have been attributed to covid. We also know that most of these non-covid excess deaths have been of people aged over 80.

If, during this autumn and winter, the recent non-covid excess death trend continues, and maybe accelerates, then I believe that the general public will increasingly blame the vaccines.

The vaccines are injuring people. That is a fact. The ADE aspect has yet to be proven but vaccine injuries alone could be responsible for a huge uptick in mortality in the months to come.
 Quoting: Diffster

One thing I'd like to do is to work out how many vaccinations have occurred in the last 8 weeks, and then how many excess deaths over-and-above a 'pre-2020' average in the same time. I would then subtract the known COVID deaths from that excess (it'll be about 500-700 per week from COVID until recently, I guess). That leaves the probable maximum for vaccine-related deaths.
Dosha

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Re: COVID-19 News, Info, Discussion /// Tracking the Spread of the Virus and its Effects /// October Lockdown for UK (pg. 774)


INFECTIONS, ILLNESSES & HOSPITALIZATIONS are increasing rapidly among FULLY VACCINATED people, according to data from the Maryland Department of Health.
Some experts said it's time to reframe thinking that the vax likely won't prevent you from ever getting sick.
 Quoting: Dosha


Interesting, just had a friend visit and she has been fully vaccinated for several months…she’s now wearing a mask. Everywhere because 5 of her friends also fully vaccinated have come down with covid over the last few weeks and we’re all very sick. She said they caught covid from each other and had no other known covid contacts. Good thing none hospitalized but all bedridden at home.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 71758435


All very consistent with vaccinated having same (or higher) viral loads after infection.

Known since Massachusets outbreak, July 31st.

Could also be consistent with the beginnings of ADE.

Incidentally, I will try to post it, but I managed to replicate the PHE figures on infection rates amongst double-vaccinated vs unvaccinated -- I agree now perfectly with PHE on the plots - showing vaccinated case rates/100k as HIGHER for ages 40-79.

Incidentally, if you swap it to "any vaccination" from "double vaccinated" the case rates /100k are higher for almost all age groups amongst VACCINATED people compared to 'virgins'.

EDIT: I am also able now to calculate the 'break-even' point for each age group at which vaccine mortality makes it a bad idea to take the shots.
 Quoting: S-man


Good work again! I'm looking forward to seeing your calculations as I'm unvaccinated and in my early 50s
 Quoting: Diffster


I second that! thumbs
Dosha
JAZZz50

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09/14/2021 05:59 PM

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Re: COVID-19 News, Info, Discussion /// Tracking the Spread of the Virus and its Effects /// October Lockdown for UK (pg. 774)
The Wife has just had a meeting, looks like Pfizer for boosters, even if you've had AZ or Moderna.

Also, if no Pfizer is available, then you'll get a half dose of Moderna.
 Quoting: Gallor


plz tell them to mix bleach and ammonia before getting the booster shots. they probly wil go home n try it. won't b back to bother u tomorrow.
JAZZZ50

2020 The SHTF literally as TP ran out.

ARM like u never have before.
there is 1 force of magic left to counter whatever comes.

it is time to call GHOSTBUSTERS to build this city with rock n roll. turn every radio and stereo on in this whole damn world. mayb just mayb it works again.
Mollymalone

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09/14/2021 06:11 PM

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Re: COVID-19 News, Info, Discussion /// Tracking the Spread of the Virus and its Effects /// October Lockdown for UK (pg. 774)
That's a great explanation. I've looked at some figures. Around 80% of weekly deaths in England and Wales are of people aged over 65. 95% of this demographic are double vaxxed. Of the remaining deaths (people under 65) who make up 20% of total weekly fatalities, I think that around 85% are double vaxxed (the vast majority of deaths in this group are in the 50-64 age group).

I'm using weekly deaths but the same proportions will apply to yearly, monthly or daily deaths.

So it's safe to say that 90-95% of people dying in England and Wales right now are double vaxxed.

We know that excess deaths have averaged about 1000 a week (10% above the five-year average) for the last eight weeks and only half of these excess deaths have been attributed to covid. We also know that most of these non-covid excess deaths have been of people aged over 80.

If, during this autumn and winter, the recent non-covid excess death trend continues, and maybe accelerates, then I believe that the general public will increasingly blame the vaccines.

The vaccines are injuring people. That is a fact. The ADE aspect has yet to be proven but vaccine injuries alone could be responsible for a huge uptick in mortality in the months to come.
 Quoting: Diffster

One thing I'd like to do is to work out how many vaccinations have occurred in the last 8 weeks, and then how many excess deaths over-and-above a 'pre-2020' average in the same time. I would then subtract the known COVID deaths from that excess (it'll be about 500-700 per week from COVID until recently, I guess). That leaves the probable maximum for vaccine-related deaths.
 Quoting: S-man


It’s this kind of stuff that keeps me coming back to GLP! Rock on.
rockon
Anonymous Coward
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09/14/2021 07:18 PM
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Re: COVID-19 News, Info, Discussion /// Tracking the Spread of the Virus and its Effects /// October Lockdown for UK (pg. 774)
In our local news, serious covid causes an autoimmune disease…so it looks like covid not the vaccine is causing an uptick in our own bodies antibodies attacking?

[link to medicalxpress.com (secure)]

Or is this a distraction for the cause being the vaccine?
CleverCreator

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09/14/2021 07:19 PM

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Re: COVID-19 News, Info, Discussion /// Tracking the Spread of the Virus and its Effects /// October Lockdown for UK (pg. 774)

Doom Level: Cluster Cluster Fuuuuuuuck

Just do your best. And be a decent soul. Don’t forget the comfort food.

Eek. Brace for the next two waves.

Proud Member of the Histrionic Doomsters
CleverCreator

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09/14/2021 07:21 PM

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Re: COVID-19 News, Info, Discussion /// Tracking the Spread of the Virus and its Effects /// October Lockdown for UK (pg. 774)
In our local news, serious covid causes an autoimmune disease…so it looks like covid not the vaccine is causing an uptick in our own bodies antibodies attacking?

[link to medicalxpress.com (secure)]

Or is this a distraction for the cause being the vaccine?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 71758435


Sooner or later… after repeat infections… this autoimmune disease will come.


Doom Level: Cluster Cluster Fuuuuuuuck

Just do your best. And be a decent soul. Don’t forget the comfort food.

Eek. Brace for the next two waves.

Proud Member of the Histrionic Doomsters
CleverCreator

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09/14/2021 07:23 PM

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Re: COVID-19 News, Info, Discussion /// Tracking the Spread of the Virus and its Effects /// October Lockdown for UK (pg. 774)

Doom Level: Cluster Cluster Fuuuuuuuck

Just do your best. And be a decent soul. Don’t forget the comfort food.

Eek. Brace for the next two waves.

Proud Member of the Histrionic Doomsters
JAZZz50

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09/14/2021 07:29 PM

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Re: COVID-19 News, Info, Discussion /// Tracking the Spread of the Virus and its Effects /// October Lockdown for UK (pg. 774)
MOLLY can i say this joke?

2 ppl inside during an EQ. gal is hysterical,"can't go outside. we'll get the virus from all those ppl. what do we do?"
man unzips pants
rock on.LOL
JAZZZ50

2020 The SHTF literally as TP ran out.

ARM like u never have before.
there is 1 force of magic left to counter whatever comes.

it is time to call GHOSTBUSTERS to build this city with rock n roll. turn every radio and stereo on in this whole damn world. mayb just mayb it works again.
R. Wordsworth
Time enough at last

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09/14/2021 07:50 PM

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Re: COVID-19 News, Info, Discussion /// Tracking the Spread of the Virus and its Effects /// October Lockdown for UK (pg. 774)
MOLLY can i say this joke?

2 ppl inside during an EQ. gal is hysterical,"can't go outside. we'll get the virus from all those ppl. what do we do?"
man unzips pants
rock on.LOL
 Quoting: JAZZz50


Confucius say, man with erection who hides in doorway at airport during earthquake is going to Bangkok.
Cock Goblin
The future ain’t what it used to be.

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09/14/2021 08:09 PM

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Re: COVID-19 News, Info, Discussion /// Tracking the Spread of the Virus and its Effects /// October Lockdown for UK (pg. 774)
MOLLY can i say this joke?

2 ppl inside during an EQ. gal is hysterical,"can't go outside. we'll get the virus from all those ppl. what do we do?"
man unzips pants
rock on.LOL
 Quoting: JAZZz50


Confucius say, man with erection who hides in doorway at airport during earthquake is going to Bangkok.
 Quoting: R. Wordsworth


New Madrid's gonna' blow

burnit

Last Edited by Cock Goblin on 09/14/2021 08:10 PM
General Thade

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09/14/2021 08:12 PM
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Re: COVID-19 News, Info, Discussion /// Tracking the Spread of the Virus and its Effects /// October Lockdown for UK (pg. 774)




That was quick, i thought it would take two weeks but it only took one day. De blasio wants the virus to spread.
JAZZz50

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09/14/2021 08:15 PM

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Re: COVID-19 News, Info, Discussion /// Tracking the Spread of the Virus and its Effects /// October Lockdown for UK (pg. 774)
case #'s locally going up. PA county has an outbreak in the county jail. that is where wave 1 started there.

NY county to my west showing cases mostly in <50 yr olds. they are the only county to give ages. also showing 3 in an elementary school for yesterday.bout 1/4 are breakthrough cases. i take that to mean all shots as it shows almost 50% had at least 1 shot.

both states are now under a school mask mandate per governors.
JAZZZ50

2020 The SHTF literally as TP ran out.

ARM like u never have before.
there is 1 force of magic left to counter whatever comes.

it is time to call GHOSTBUSTERS to build this city with rock n roll. turn every radio and stereo on in this whole damn world. mayb just mayb it works again.
JAZZz50

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09/14/2021 08:23 PM

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Re: COVID-19 News, Info, Discussion /// Tracking the Spread of the Virus and its Effects /// October Lockdown for UK (pg. 774)
CG, which state never got the virus?

IMAHO they always use protection
JAZZZ50

2020 The SHTF literally as TP ran out.

ARM like u never have before.
there is 1 force of magic left to counter whatever comes.

it is time to call GHOSTBUSTERS to build this city with rock n roll. turn every radio and stereo on in this whole damn world. mayb just mayb it works again.
Cock Goblin
The future ain’t what it used to be.

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09/14/2021 08:27 PM

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Re: COVID-19 News, Info, Discussion /// Tracking the Spread of the Virus and its Effects /// October Lockdown for UK (pg. 774)
CG, which state never got the virus?

IMAHO they always use protection
 Quoting: JAZZz50


JAZZ

You talking EMO Chicks

banana2
Cock Goblin
The future ain’t what it used to be.

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09/14/2021 08:46 PM

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Re: COVID-19 News, Info, Discussion /// Tracking the Spread of the Virus and its Effects /// October Lockdown for UK (pg. 774)


We Don't Wear Masks In America

fkcommies-usa

wtf





GLP