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# DEBUNK THIS: Google trends of various elections: Is google more accurate than polls? (It has predicted the winner in all the last 4 elections)

User ID: 78331155
08/24/2020 12:41 AM
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DEBUNK THIS: Google trends of various elections: Is google more accurate than polls? (It has predicted the winner in all the last 4 elections)
(Update: It seems you can use this to detect electoral fraud)

The method that works is:

1) Last names - not full names - (or whatever is a simplest shortest way to identify the candidate . E.G: Beto is better than O'Rourke - Mccain is better than John or John Mccain)
2) Date range starts from beginning of campaign to 1 week after the election.
3) Always Filter by geographical area where election takes place
(Country, state, county etc..)

You do that, 9 out 10 times - the results match reality.

Note: the predictive system starts to breaks down when there are less than 500,000 voters, or when the election is too tight (candidates within 3% of each other.)

2004 election

2008 election:

2012 election:

2016 election:

2020 election: (past 90 days)

Last Edited by JADR+ on 08/26/2020 12:23 AM
I'm a J & proud zio.

FE Challenge: Provide a formula which calculates the exact distance between 2 GPS coordinates that does not use the Earth's radius of 6,371 km in it's assumptions

User ID: 78331155
08/24/2020 12:48 AM
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Re: DEBUNK THIS: Google trends of various elections: Is google more accurate than polls? (It has predicted the winner in all the last 4 elections)
Note: 2008 was an overwhelming win for Obama
The last 2 elections were very tight
the coming election looks like a total red tsunami.
I'm a J & proud zio.

FE Challenge: Provide a formula which calculates the exact distance between 2 GPS coordinates that does not use the Earth's radius of 6,371 km in it's assumptions

sonofthemorning

User ID: 78050364
United States
08/24/2020 12:51 AM
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Re: DEBUNK THIS: Google trends of various elections: Is google more accurate than polls? (It has predicted the winner in all the last 4 elections)
Seems reasonable and the trends being more reliable than polls seem to ring to true too

User ID: 78331155
08/24/2020 12:59 AM
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Re: DEBUNK THIS: Google trends of various elections: Is google more accurate than polls? (It has predicted the winner in all the last 4 elections)
Seems reasonable and the trends being more reliable than polls seem to ring to true too
Quoting: sonofthemorning

Indeed!
I'm a J & proud zio.

FE Challenge: Provide a formula which calculates the exact distance between 2 GPS coordinates that does not use the Earth's radius of 6,371 km in it's assumptions

User ID: 78331155
08/24/2020 01:07 AM
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Re: DEBUNK THIS: Google trends of various elections: Is google more accurate than polls? (It has predicted the winner in all the last 4 elections)
I'm a J & proud zio.

FE Challenge: Provide a formula which calculates the exact distance between 2 GPS coordinates that does not use the Earth's radius of 6,371 km in it's assumptions

User ID: 78071531
United States
08/24/2020 01:15 AM
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Re: DEBUNK THIS: Google trends of various elections: Is google more accurate than polls? (It has predicted the winner in all the last 4 elections)
Holy moly! That's a trouncing!

User ID: 78331155
08/24/2020 01:19 AM
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Re: DEBUNK THIS: Google trends of various elections: Is google more accurate than polls? (It has predicted the winner in all the last 4 elections)
Holy moly! That's a trouncing!

A total massacre!!!

Last Edited by JADR+ on 08/24/2020 01:26 AM
I'm a J & proud zio.

FE Challenge: Provide a formula which calculates the exact distance between 2 GPS coordinates that does not use the Earth's radius of 6,371 km in it's assumptions

User ID: 78331155
08/24/2020 01:31 AM
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Re: DEBUNK THIS: Google trends of various elections: Is google more accurate than polls? (It has predicted the winner in all the last 4 elections)
Someone else noticed this, 3 years ago!

I'm a J & proud zio.

FE Challenge: Provide a formula which calculates the exact distance between 2 GPS coordinates that does not use the Earth's radius of 6,371 km in it's assumptions

User ID: 78331155
08/24/2020 01:49 AM
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Re: DEBUNK THIS: Google trends of various elections: Is google more accurate than polls? (It has predicted the winner in all the last 4 elections)

I'm a J & proud zio.

FE Challenge: Provide a formula which calculates the exact distance between 2 GPS coordinates that does not use the Earth's radius of 6,371 km in it's assumptions

User ID: 78331155
08/24/2020 02:13 AM
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Re: DEBUNK THIS: Google trends of various elections: Is google more accurate than polls? (It has predicted the winner in all the last 4 elections)
Marjory Taylor Green VS John Cowan

I'm a J & proud zio.

FE Challenge: Provide a formula which calculates the exact distance between 2 GPS coordinates that does not use the Earth's radius of 6,371 km in it's assumptions

User ID: 78331155
08/24/2020 02:18 AM
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Re: DEBUNK THIS: Google trends of various elections: Is google more accurate than polls? (It has predicted the winner in all the last 4 elections)
Brian Kemp vs Stacy Abrams

I'm a J & proud zio.

FE Challenge: Provide a formula which calculates the exact distance between 2 GPS coordinates that does not use the Earth's radius of 6,371 km in it's assumptions

Anonymous Coward
User ID: 77337151
United States
08/24/2020 02:21 AM
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Re: DEBUNK THIS: Google trends of various elections: Is google more accurate than polls? (It has predicted the winner in all the last 4 elections)
Interesting OP

Seems plausible

User ID: 78331155
08/24/2020 02:24 AM
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Re: DEBUNK THIS: Google trends of various elections: Is google more accurate than polls? (It has predicted the winner in all the last 4 elections)
Klobuchar vs Jim Newberger. (2018)

Seems to work even for senate elections

Last Edited by JADR+ on 08/24/2020 12:36 PM
I'm a J & proud zio.

FE Challenge: Provide a formula which calculates the exact distance between 2 GPS coordinates that does not use the Earth's radius of 6,371 km in it's assumptions

User ID: 78331155
08/24/2020 02:29 AM
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Re: DEBUNK THIS: Google trends of various elections: Is google more accurate than polls? (It has predicted the winner in all the last 4 elections)
Republican Mark Harris VS Dan McCready

Last Edited by JADR+ on 08/24/2020 12:40 PM
I'm a J & proud zio.

FE Challenge: Provide a formula which calculates the exact distance between 2 GPS coordinates that does not use the Earth's radius of 6,371 km in it's assumptions

Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78715086
United States
08/24/2020 02:32 AM
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Re: DEBUNK THIS: Google trends of various elections: Is google more accurate than polls? (It has predicted the winner in all the last 4 elections)
Are you comparing trump to Hillary in 2020?
Double check that.

User ID: 78331155
08/24/2020 02:33 AM
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Re: DEBUNK THIS: Google trends of various elections: Is google more accurate than polls? (It has predicted the winner in all the last 4 elections)
Are you comparing trump to Hillary in 2020?
Double check that.
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78715086

Trump to Joe Biden 2020
I'm a J & proud zio.

FE Challenge: Provide a formula which calculates the exact distance between 2 GPS coordinates that does not use the Earth's radius of 6,371 km in it's assumptions

Anonymous Coward
User ID: 77337151
United States
08/24/2020 02:35 AM
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Re: DEBUNK THIS: Google trends of various elections: Is google more accurate than polls? (It has predicted the winner in all the last 4 elections)
Are you comparing trump to Hillary in 2020?
Double check that.
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78715086

Trump to Joe Biden 2020

Compare Trump and Kamala 2020
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78715086
United States
08/24/2020 02:37 AM
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Re: DEBUNK THIS: Google trends of various elections: Is google more accurate than polls? (It has predicted the winner in all the last 4 elections)
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 77606890
United States
08/24/2020 02:37 AM
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Re: DEBUNK THIS: Google trends of various elections: Is google more accurate than polls? (It has predicted the winner in all the last 4 elections)
You see that USA map? Haha lots of red!!

Also, thank you for sharing

User ID: 78331155
08/24/2020 02:38 AM
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Re: DEBUNK THIS: Google trends of various elections: Is google more accurate than polls? (It has predicted the winner in all the last 4 elections)
Are you comparing trump to Hillary in 2020?
Double check that.
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78715086

Trump to Joe Biden 2020

Compare Trump and Kamala 2020
Quoting: Agent Kitty

Kamala is a one hit wonder

I'm a J & proud zio.

FE Challenge: Provide a formula which calculates the exact distance between 2 GPS coordinates that does not use the Earth's radius of 6,371 km in it's assumptions

Anonymous Coward
User ID: 77606890
United States
08/24/2020 02:39 AM
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Re: DEBUNK THIS: Google trends of various elections: Is google more accurate than polls? (It has predicted the winner in all the last 4 elections)
No wonder the shills and trolls are begging us not to vote haha
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 77606890
United States
08/24/2020 02:39 AM
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Re: DEBUNK THIS: Google trends of various elections: Is google more accurate than polls? (It has predicted the winner in all the last 4 elections)
Are you comparing trump to Hillary in 2020?
Double check that.
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78715086

Trump to Joe Biden 2020

Compare Trump and Kamala 2020
Quoting: Agent Kitty

Kamala is a one hit wonder

Oh that’s not good for her... haha they looked her up and said NO THANK YOU!!
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78715086
United States
08/24/2020 02:40 AM
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Re: DEBUNK THIS: Google trends of various elections: Is google more accurate than polls? (It has predicted the winner in all the last 4 elections)
If you cherry pick the search terms you can get the outcome you want.

User ID: 78331155
08/24/2020 02:47 AM
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Re: DEBUNK THIS: Google trends of various elections: Is google more accurate than polls? (It has predicted the winner in all the last 4 elections)
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78715086

Use Trump instead of Donald Trump - people search for
"Trump" - that's his brand

The major predictor is how long the search term dominates ...

So if Biden were to dominate Trump for the next 1 month , Trump would be in serious trouble.

Last 7 days:

Last 30 days:

I'm a J & proud zio.

FE Challenge: Provide a formula which calculates the exact distance between 2 GPS coordinates that does not use the Earth's radius of 6,371 km in it's assumptions

User ID: 78331155
08/24/2020 02:48 AM
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Re: DEBUNK THIS: Google trends of various elections: Is google more accurate than polls? (It has predicted the winner in all the last 4 elections)
If you cherry pick the search terms you can get the outcome you want.
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78715086

If you keep it to the last name ... answers are consistent
I'm a J & proud zio.

FE Challenge: Provide a formula which calculates the exact distance between 2 GPS coordinates that does not use the Earth's radius of 6,371 km in it's assumptions

Anonymous Coward
User ID: 77963234
United States
08/24/2020 02:49 AM
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Re: DEBUNK THIS: Google trends of various elections: Is google more accurate than polls? (It has predicted the winner in all the last 4 elections)
WOW - lots of red in the graph and chart.

User ID: 78331155
08/24/2020 02:55 AM
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Re: DEBUNK THIS: Google trends of various elections: Is google more accurate than polls? (It has predicted the winner in all the last 4 elections)
WOW - lots of red in the graph and chart.
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77963234

To validate this ... just find past senate & congress elections, set the date filter and punch in the last names of the politicians

See what you get.

Prediction .. the winner will always dominate over time on google trends.

Try it with contested elections ...

Last Edited by JADR+ on 08/24/2020 02:58 AM
I'm a J & proud zio.

FE Challenge: Provide a formula which calculates the exact distance between 2 GPS coordinates that does not use the Earth's radius of 6,371 km in it's assumptions

Anonymous Coward
User ID: 77606890
United States
08/24/2020 02:57 AM
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Re: DEBUNK THIS: Google trends of various elections: Is google more accurate than polls? (It has predicted the winner in all the last 4 elections)
If you cherry pick the search terms you can get the outcome you want.
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78715086

Didn’t like what you saw huh? Had to get nasty? Lol November going to be rough month for you

User ID: 78331155
08/24/2020 03:03 AM
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Re: DEBUNK THIS: Google trends of various elections: Is google more accurate than polls? (It has predicted the winner in all the last 4 elections)
Gillum Vs Desantis

Last Edited by JADR+ on 08/24/2020 12:43 PM
I'm a J & proud zio.

FE Challenge: Provide a formula which calculates the exact distance between 2 GPS coordinates that does not use the Earth's radius of 6,371 km in it's assumptions

User ID: 78331155
08/24/2020 03:06 AM
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Re: DEBUNK THIS: Google trends of various elections: Is google more accurate than polls? (It has predicted the winner in all the last 4 elections)
Sinema Vs McSally

Last Edited by JADR+ on 08/24/2020 12:45 PM
I'm a J & proud zio.

FE Challenge: Provide a formula which calculates the exact distance between 2 GPS coordinates that does not use the Earth's radius of 6,371 km in it's assumptions

User ID: 78331155
08/24/2020 03:12 AM
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Re: DEBUNK THIS: Google trends of various elections: Is google more accurate than polls? (It has predicted the winner in all the last 4 elections)
If you cherry pick the search terms you can get the outcome you want.
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78715086

Didn’t like what you saw huh? Had to get nasty? Lol November going to be rough month for you
Quoting: lionright

On top of that - the media is obsessed with Trump

+ No one trust the media anymore

= There is no such thing as bad publicity!