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My 2 cents on the Armenia/Azerbaijan conflict 2020

 
Anonymous Coward
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10/23/2020 09:57 PM
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My 2 cents on the Armenia/Azerbaijan conflict 2020
Armenia a small landlocked country surrounded by enemies, for thousands of years the Armenian people lived in that area.
A dangerous area with dozens if not hundreds of wars, clashes between races, religions and empires.
Most races and civilizations long gone by now, totally wiped out or absorbed by 1 of the main religions in the area.
The history is full of wars of conquest, and wars of revenge spanning over thousands of years although often with decades or even hundreds of years of relative peace.
There are 4 regional "super" powers in the area where Armenia sits in between. The Eu (remnants of the Roman empire), Russia remnants of the Soviet Union, Turkey remnants of the Ottoman empire and Iran remnants of the Persian Empire.

All 4 of them in hundreds even thousands of years of fighting each other, taking land from each other, in the exact same spots of the conflicts of today these wars are historically still a continuation of the century old battle of control of the region.
Although every war, every clash has an apparent reason it is often a continuation of the age-old conquest for territory in this neighborhood.
In this case the justification of this war is international right, in the sense that this plot of land has been given to Azerbaijan by the soviet Union.
Using this fact, calls into question many other territories like, the occupation of Cyprus by Turkey, Parts of Iraq, Syria and Libya occupied by Turkey, Parts of Lebanon, Jordan and Palestine occupied or confiscated by force by Israel, and many more areas in the world.

Geopolitical aspect:
Turkey's drive for expansion can not be denied after occupied parts of most of its neighbors.
Looking at the map it is obvious that if Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) is taken and held by Azerbaijan(Turkey).
Turkey/Azerbaijan can take the southern tip of Armenia in a day or less. And thus enlarging the neo-Ottoman empire including Azerbaijan and on the east.
The absence of international attention for this war is therefore quite surprising. Even though the number of casualties is very low, the implications of changing hands of this small part of the world will have long-lasting consequences.
Turkeys justifications for the recent excursions into neighboring countries is often terrorism, true, fake, false flag or highly exaggerated events.
Fact is that if NKR is in Azerbaijan's control it may only take 1 terrorist incident/scare/false flag for Turkey to justify the occupation of southern Armenia.
Not only creating a de facto large Turkey by absorbing Azerbaijan, but also taking control of the Northern border of Iran, taking control of Iran/Russia, Iran/Europe trading routes.

Armenia invaded NKR!?
Armenians have always lived there, and Azerbaijan never governed this area as a country, this claim is thus somewhat dubious.
From the tens of million Christians in the middle east only a handful of token Christians often remain highly controlled in their freedoms of possession, religion and freedom of speech, Armenians fear for extermination can not be whimpered away as paranoid thinking.

Look at what they do not at what they say:
Azerbaijan keeps saying the native population of the area has nothing to fear and has agreed to 2 separate cease fires, but even during the talks and while the cease fire went into effect they kept marching on and bombing everything in their way.
Numerous war crimes have been filmed, even the perpetrators have been identified by OSINT however not a single Azerbaijani soldier has been prosecuted for war crimes.
It is therefore irrational to believe the Azerbaijan government, when they say the native population has nothing to fear.

Propaganda - blame game:
Sporadic clashes in the disputed NKR region were accompanied by blaming each other for starting the clashes.
When the first reports of new clashes in the NKR region appeared online, the Azerbianians claimed that Armenia had started attacking Azerbaijan proper.
Just to later make statements like "on Tuesday, Azeri President Ilham Aliyev said the following: “We are fighting on our own land, giving martyrs and restoring our territorial integrity. These steps will continue to be taken.”
“Armenia must declare before it is too late that it is withdrawing from the occupied territories. After that the fighting may stop.


Thus contradicting them self or one may say lying over the facts, as it is clear that this was a well planned well funded operation.
Armenia claims hundreds of downed Drones helicopters and airplanes, +7000 killed soldiers, with proof of a percentage of that, only time may or may not prove their claims.
Azerbaijan puts out propaganda with colorful maps, creating the impression that total victory is only days ahead. However after a month of fighting their progress is not in line with their victorious army speeches against a vastly outnumbered, out financed and outgunned adversary.


Timing:
Turkey seems to have had a free hand by the Trump regime, the timing of this war seems to coincide with the US election.
Surprisingly there is not yet a partial successful (for Azerbaijan) agreement signed before the elections in USA.
After a buying spree of state of the art military hardware from Israel, Russia and Turkey Azerbaijan finally had the means to start the war.

What to expect:
Even though this war seems to have supposed to be a Azerbaijani Blitzkrieg, after a month of fighting they have to rely on Israeli drones, Turkeys Drone, Turkeys expertise to fly and control the drones even Turkeys control of the airspace.
Mercenaries, from Libya, Syria, Pakistan and Turkey seem to indicate that the will to fight and die for this plot of land is not that great, in Azerbaijan.
Although Azerbaijan makes steady progress, most of the fighting has been in the plains, next to the border. Now most of the Armenian controlled NKR is mostly mountainous, the winter is approaching and the war keeps dragging on.
- With no military experience to speak of, i am just guessing here. With the winter coming down, slushy mountain roads, frozen over mountain passes will make it harder for the advancing army.
Creating the potential for this conflict to drag on for much longer.
- In Azerbaijan the casualty number is a state secret, the longer the conflict drags on, the more families will have the experience of burying loved ones, or parts of them.
A reality that can not be denied by state secrets, same as the financial costs of the war that sooner or later will hit home.
In a quasi dictatorship the people do not complain or protest but recent history shows that they can revolt and change the regime.
In this regard time may be Armenians best (or only) friend.
- The Islamic fundamentalist mercenaries, which or reportedly deployed by Azerbaijan are reportedly battle hardened and extremely fanatic.
In war, laws and regulations are often set aside, giving groups like this the opportunity to store weapon caches, setup networks etc.
Creating a potential breeding nest for terrorist networks and attacks across the region for decades to come.

Drone warfare:
Dozens if not hundreds of drone, loitering munition videos from the Azerbaijani army have been publicized.
The Armenian forces seem to have been taken by surprise by the massive amount of drones the Azzerbijanians have been able to use.
From the very first day of the attack newly acquired drones and loitering munitions have been used with extreme precision indicating that Turkish and Israelis have been operating this drones and assets.
Both of which have extensive experience with these systems.

Final thoughts:
Armenia a tiny country with a tiny population and even a smaller military budget apparently deprived of any friends, are holding up heroically.
The funds and materials to find a solution against precision strikes with high resolution thermal sights may be out of reach.

As an observer of this conflict it seems strange that there are no anti-thermal imaging device technical/equipment employed.
Many drone footage show large and small groups of NKR soldiers minding their business, attacking or defending and not a single soldier that observes the sky for potential drones.
A simple 50 cent space blanket would decrease the thermal signature of a soldier, foxhole or bunker entrance?
Turkeys and Israeli drones have been used and shown to take out dozens of Russian air defense systems, the video proof has been meticulous propagated in an apparent sales advertisement.
Russia may lose some clients for its air defense systems, since it seems to be unable to counter modern air treaths.
Anonymous Coward
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10/23/2020 09:59 PM
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Re: My 2 cents on the Armenia/Azerbaijan conflict 2020
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