Smoking gun: Dominion transferring vote ratios between precincts in PA (VIDEO)

You always have the best threads
Good job

Literally gutted my way through it.

Great work! (He could work on his presentation skills though)

He does have nice threads.

Every girl’s crazy about a sharp dressed man.

Thank you!
I'm wearing the green suit due to a promotion! - I now get to use the saucer that takes 1 hour instead of 3.

I believe as much as anyone that this election is highly suspect, but there is no “smoking gun” here, just atrociously bad analysis. Essentially, he sorted the data in a way that’s basically guaranteed to give him the result he is then “surprised” to find.

First, let’s consider how he prepares the data for analysis (see video starting from 1:59): He used data only from Philadelphia, which is a heavily-Democrat city. He then sorts this data by “Trump Votes / Total Votes” (which he calls the “major ratio”) as the primary sort key and then by timestamp as the secondary sort key.

Then (at 3:44), he seems surprised that you have to go pretty far down in this data to get high values for “major ratio” — well, yeah, if you take precinct data from Philadelphia, you shouldn’t be shocked to find that “Trump / Total” is very low for most precincts.

Next there’s his whole “ratio transferring” theory. If we start with one very reasonable assumption, then what he observes as “ratio transferring” is purely an artifact of how he sorted the data (first by Trump / Total, then by timestamp). That assumption is the following:

- While the underlying raw vote counts are changing frequently, they are only periodically synced to *this dataset* (say once an hour, for example). This periodic syncing to this dataset is done for all precincts simultaneously.

Especially given that this is a NYT dataset, not raw data being reported by precincts, I think this assumption is quite reasonable. I can imagine that NYT just had some program running that would occasionally go and fetch vote counts from all counties and then update their data all at once.

Given this assumption, what this video claims as “ratio transferring” is to be expected, given how he sorted the data. During one of those periodic updates, all precincts will have their vote totals change a little bit, resulting in slightly different "major ratios" for each precinct. For example, precincts that used to have a “major ratio” of, 1/18, will now not have that ratio and will therefore disappear from the sequence because *he sorted the data* first by major ratio *then by* timestamp!! With a large number of precincts, chances are a few other precincts whose ratios were not quite 1/18 will have their ratios change to 1/18, and so those precincts will appear with timestamps immediately following when the update happened, again because he sorted by major ratio first then by timestamp. He’s calling this “ratio transferring”, but there is no “transfer”, just ratios shifting around slightly after each update. Precincts that used to have a given ratio no longer have precisely that ratio after the update, and some other precincts that used to not have that ratio now do!

Later, he’s surprised to find the same greatest common factor (GCF) among all vote counts within a range of his data. Again, this is a *direct consequence* of how he sorted the data. If you’re explicitly picking out the precincts and times where trumps percentage is exactly (for example) 4/63, you shouldn’t then be surprised that you get all rows with Trump = 4x and Biden = 59x for some x, and that therefore all rows will have the same GCFs!!

I’m only about 20min into this video so far… but at this point I highly doubt I’ll find a “smoking gun” in the remaining 30min.

I believe as much as anyone that this election is highly suspect, but there is no “smoking gun” here, just atrociously bad analysis. Essentially, he sorted the data in a way that’s basically guaranteed to give him the result he is then “surprised” to find.

First, let’s consider how he prepares the data for analysis (see video starting from 1:59): He used data only from Philadelphia, which is a heavily-Democrat city. He then sorts this data by “Trump Votes / Total Votes” (which he calls the “major ratio”) as the primary sort key and then by timestamp as the secondary sort key.

Then (at 3:44), he seems surprised that you have to go pretty far down in this data to get ....on and on.

Can you just wrap it up into a simple form for a simpleton?

I can try... :) Perhaps let's look at a concrete example.

Let's look at the example starting from 16:24 in the video. Here he's looking *only* at the data with Trump's vote percentage exactly equal to 0.06349206349 = 4/63 (because the data is sorted by Trumps vote percentage *first*). In this example, he claims that the 4/63 ratio is being "transferred" from precinct "61-11" to precincts "13-05" and "61-22" sometime between 9:06 and 9:39 on November 4.

What's really happening is that the data for all precincts was updated sometime during that time frame. Before the update, precinct 61-11 had Trump=20, Biden=291. After the update, it will be something slightly different. For example, maybe it went to Trump=23, Biden=305, making the new Trump vote percentage 23/(23+305) = 0.07012195122. The actual new numbers are not important. What is important is that it will be slightly different. But because he's only looking at the data with Trump's vote percentage exactly equal to 0.06349206349, of course that precinct no longer shows up after the update. The data is there, it's just somewhere else in his spreadsheet because he sorted the data by Trump's vote percentage.

Similarly, the data for precincts "13-05" and "61-22" would also have slightly different vote counts before the update, and so that data is also likewise just somewhere else in his spreadsheet.

Last Edited by OrAndSable on 11/21/2020 12:24 AM

It could also be the case that there were multiple updates between 9:06 and 9:39 (actually, I think this is pretty likely). It's just that no precincts happened to have that exact 4/63 Trump vote percentage during that time.

Bump

and people still continue calmly to report the DOMINION VOTE TRANSFERS

wtf instead of hanging these traitors and destroying the machinery