Pretty much the entire situation w/ Trump vs Biden in a single, simple nutshell

Not sure how many of you subscribe to a particular side or not, but let me lay it out for you as simply as possible.

There's obviously a lot of hyperbole on both sides. Examples of hyperbole would be QFS Ballots (I will happily retract if that's ever proven) and on the other end Marc Elias and his cronies constantly parroting factually inaccurate numbers like "trump is 40 losses to 1 win" when they've only brought a handful of lawsuits forward.

So, where are we now?

Steve Turley pretty much lays it out top to bottom for anyone willing to listen:



In a nutshell (my views) though:
* Biden campaign has shifted and will continue to shift from "We won" to "Full court press offensive against the Trump family". This means you see all kinds of meaningless action or desperation hail mary's across the field like going after Ivanka or saying that Trump has no evidence.

* Trump is clearly doing a 'ratchet on a noose' method of killing his quarry's opposition. Every round of release has been better and better. In the beginning it was mostly just words. Then it was affidavits. Then it was witnesses. Now we're up to provable fraud with the Georgia video and vote switching in Arizona. They even have a Dominion machine and are able to prove the votes were switched on it, which is enormous.

Put simply:

Biden campaign cheated. Trump knew they cheated; gave ample understanding that they were going to cheat (See his infamous early AM speech where he calls them out for making sudden vote dumps at 4am), they disregard, press forward, get caught, and try to pressure him into conceding using their massive media machine. Ironically they screwed themselves here because by having constantly attacking him for 4 years, he built up a tolerance to their lies and just ignored them and played golf. Trump doesn't appear willing to take their deals (See Gina Haspel's meeting with Mitch M.) and instead we've just seen a steady influx of both backchannel information (Servers being taken) and stuff easily digestible by the public (Georgia suitcase video).

Where we go from here:

Trump has NUMEROUS paths to win, while Biden only has two that I can see.

Biden's paths:
* Pressure Trump into conceding. Hasn't worked yet, so it likely won't going forward.

* Lie/Cheat/Bribe/Steal - Whatever it takes. This is their most likely attempted path forward. They will continue to throw Chinese money at people who might prove potential roadblocks while blackmailing the rest.

Trump's Paths:
* Legal victory - Trump wins in court, invalidating swaths of votes, swinging states. This may include some surprise swings such as CA. He's pursuing a LOT of paths here, much like a tentacled sea creature :P
* Supreme court victory - Trump wins via 'fraud vitiates everything' (1878). This means that he gets to the SC, proves fraud, they basically take all votes away from Biden because he's proven to have cheated and it auto-wins for Trump. I see this as 30% likely as I don't know if the SC will have the balls and obviously they'll be high pressure in terms of blackmail/etc (See Roberts).
* SC abdicates a binding decision and instead condemns cheating --> Goes to Electors. Electors for various states may change who they send. This is already being worked on in several states. Electors vote for Trump.
* SC abdicates a binding decision and instead insufficient electors are able to decide for one reason or another. This becomes a contingent election. 50 States, 50 votes, 1 per state. Trump wins on superiority of Republican state #'s.
* SC abdicates a binding decision and instead the electors choose Biden. This the #2 Biden victory path here and the most tenuous. At this point, Pence becomes the final arbiter, able to choose to ignore electors from specific states if they cannot be trusted or were likely fraudulent. Trump wins again.
* Final path - SC abdicates a binding decision and the electors choose Biden. Pence, being compromised, also chooses Biden. Trump uses his recently realigned people in the DOD to initiate EO from 2018 / Insurrection act. Short scale, high intensity and very localized violence occurs as people are arrested in short order.

Trump wins again.


Now I say this as someone who obviously has biases, but if I do my level best to remove them, I don't see anything but a fading level of capability by Biden's camp and constant momentum increases for Trump's camp.

Ignore the fantasies, the AC's with snide posts, the insane media lies. Focus on the real, tangible paths forward.

We won this a month ago. Trump's people are proving it to everyone and then coming for the people responsible.

If you were responsible for any of the steal I highly recommend you make a deal now - otherwise the window will close and you'll be on the rough end of the stick.

Cheers :)